Sunday, April 17, 2011

Upcoming pitching staff changes


With Brandon Morrow and Franky Francisco set to make the trip from Dunedin up to Toronto for the upcoming series against the Yankees, a number of roster moves are in order. The Blue Jays are currently rocking an 8 man bullpen and 3 man bench. With today's demotion of Mike McCoy as a result of Encarnacion's return, the bench currently consists of Jose Molina, John McDonald, and Juan Rivera.

The 8 man bullpen / 3 man bench system is likely to remain intact until Rajai Davis returns (unless of course we get rid of Juan Rivera somehow), at which point the bullpen will be cut to 7 arms and another issue will arise. That, however, is the proverbial bridge to be crossed when we get there.

The bullpen currently consists of Rauch, Camp, Rzepczynski, Frasor, Dotel, Janssen, Villanueva, and Perez. Of these 8, Janssen, Villanueva, and Perez are the only three with minor league options remaining. Villanueva has been invaluable as a long man, so his spot is likely safe for the time being. Perez is likely the odd man out with Francisco's return, as he both has options and has the least tenure of the group. That does leave an 8 man bullpen with only one left hander however.

Morrow's return is what creates the greatest problem. It is fair to say he will either be taking the spot currently held by Jesse Litsch or Jo-Jo Reyes. Litsch has a minor league option remaining, so if he is replaced he would likely be sent to Triple-A Las Vegas. Reyes is out of options, however, so if he loses his spot in the rotation it is likely he would join the bullpen as management would be wise to avoid trying to pass him through waivers. If Reyes joins the bullpen, another bullpen arm must be sent down. This leaves the following scenarios:

1. Morrow replaces Litsch, Francisco replaces Perez, Litsch and Perez to Triple-A (leaving 1 LHP in bullpen)
2. Morrow replace Litsch, Francisco replaces Janssen, Litsch and Janssen to Triple-A (leaving 2 LHP in bullpen)
3. Morrow replaces Reyes, Francisco replaces Perez, Reyes to bullpen, Perez and Janssen to Triple-A (leaving 2 LHP in bullpen)

I find it hard to believe we would run an 8 man bullpen with only one lefty, so I find option 1 far fetched. Stuff wise, I'd rather see what Reyes can do over Litsch. Performance wise, which is likely what the front office is looking at, the two starters have both struggled, which leads me to believe options 2 and 3 are equally probably.

The one constant between options 2 and 3 is that Janssen is likely to be demoted to Triple-A, despite a relatively solid performance so far this season (though he has allowed a lot of inherited runners to score). One solace he can take, however, is that by the end of July, it's probably that atleast 1, and possibly 2 of the 3 veteran relievers we acquired this offseason (Francisco, Dotel, Rauch) will have been moved, and there will be bullpen openings to close out the year. He's also likely to be the #1 option in case of injury.

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