#10: RHP Asher Wojciechowski

Name: Asher Wojciechowski
Position: Right-handed SP
Acquired: 1st round (2010)
Opening Day age: 22
Height/weight: 6'4", 235 lbs
Best/worst tool: Fastball/command

Scouting Report: Wojciechowski features a mid 90's fastball that he pairs with an average yet improving low-to-mid 80's slider and a work in progress changeup. He has a strong pitcher's body, so durability is not a concern. Wojciechowski has a good mound presence and prefers to attack hitters instead of nibbling at the corners. Asher has struggled with command, particularly in long outings, which has led to debate as to whether he should be a starter or reliever long term. He played both roles in college for The Citadel.

2010 Stats: 12 IP, 6 H, 1 ER, 0 HR, 4 BB, 11 K
1.89 GO/AO, 0.75 ERA, 0.83 WHIP, 8.25 K/9

2010 Analysis: Due to a high inning count in college, Wojciechowski pitched in only 3 games with the Blue Jays organization, overmatching hitters while working for Auburn of the New York - Penn League.

2011 Stats: 73.2 IP, 94 H, 48 ER, 14 HR, 23 BB, 55 K
1.05 GO/AO, 5.86 ERA, 1.59 WHIP, 6.72 K/9

2011 Analysis: Wojciechowski has been working as a starter for the Blue Jays High-A affiliate in Dunedin, and after an extremely successful April (0.87 ERA in 4 starts), his season has taken a turn from bad (6.06 ERA in 6 May starts) to worse (10.62 ERA in 5 June starts), leaving him with an ugly pitching line for the season. According to Baseball Prospectus' Kevin Goldstein, Wojciechowski has been relying nearly exclusively on his fastball, which is not going to suffice as a starter in the Florida State League. If he hopes to stay as a starter long term, he is going to need to trust his offspeed pitches, and throw them more often to keep hitters from sitting on his fastball -- it does not have the movement to be an exclusive pitch.

Future outlook: Wojciechowski has two major concerns, his fastball location and his lack of secondary pitches. If he can resolve atleast one of those two issues, he has a chance of sticking as a starter. Otherwise, he's likely ticketed for the bullpen. He likely has the remainder of 2011 and the first couple months of 2012 to prove he can handle the workload, but if he fails he could be fast tracked to the majors by late 2012 or early 2013 as a reliever.

Perfect world projection: An inning eating #3 starter, if he improves his offspeed pitches and locates the fastball better.

Worst case scenario: 7th man or long man in the bullpen.

Most likely outcome: Setup man, if he can improve one of his offspeed pitches. His fastball-slider combo would work well in the 8th inning, but he likely lacks the command to be a true shutdown closer.

Octavio Dotel is a strange dude

Words cannot describe how happy Octavio Dotel was about Edwin Encarnacion's 9th inning homerun last night against the Cardinals. Video is required.



That is one happy 37 year old man.. dancing like a 4 year old girl.

Midseason Report: Triple-A Las Vegas

Team Record: 41-36 (2nd in Southern Pacific Division)
Number of team Top 15 prospects: 2 -- Lawrie, Thames

The first half of the Las Vegas season has been a tumultuous one that has seen frequent, drastic changes in the roster as well as a highly inconsistent pitching staff (though, that's almost expected in the PCL). The team has combined for an .858 OPS (good for 2nd in the PCL), however their pitching has posted a miserable 5.32 ERA (11th in PCL) and 1.55 WHIP (10th in PCL).

Notable hitters:

3B Brett Lawrie: .354/.415/.677 (1.092 OPS), 19 2B, 15 HR, 49 RBI, 11 SB, 18/40 BB/K

Brett Lawrie has been the best hitter over the first 3 months, despite missing all of June. 2011 is Lawrie's 1st year at 3rd base, and even though he has spent extensive amounts of time working on defensive drills, he has still managed to find the time to kill the baseball. PCL and Vegas effects aside, Lawrie has exceeded any and all offensive expectations placed upon him this season, and if not for a hand-breaking HBP on May 31st, he would be manning 3rd base in Toronto right now.

LF Eric Thames: .352/.423/.610 (1.033 OPS), 25 2B, 7 HR, 45 RBI, 23/41 BB/K

Thames has continued his 2010 success in New Hampshire with Las Vegas in 2011. While maintaining his strong power numbers, Thames has improved his approach at the plate, increasing his walk rate while decreasing his strikeout rate, all against more experienced pitching. This has earned him two promotions to Toronto, and his stay in the minor leagues may be over.

1B David Cooper: .372/.431/.575 (1.007 OPS), 28 2B, 6 HR, 54 RBI, 26/20 BB/K

Cooper has reinfused his prospect stock with his performance this year. While the lack of home runs is disappointing when you consider his position and park, he has still been an all around strong performer with a high batting average, a lot of doubles, and a very strong BB/K ratio.

RF Adam Loewen: .315/.376/.569 (.945 OPS), 28 2B, 12 HR, 50 RBI, 28/77 BB/K

Since making the transition from pitcher to hitter after numerous injuries to his throwing arm, Loewen has steadily made improvements to his game each year in the minor leagues. While his strikeout rate remains higher than preferred, he has been good at the plate and may see time in the big leagues at some point late this season.

OF Travis Snider: .324/.396/.468 (.864 OPS), 19 2B, 2 HR, 27 RBI, 7 SB, 20/32 BB/K

Snider started the season in Toronto, but after a poor start he was sent to Las Vegas to rework his swing mechanics. After initially struggling with the changes, Snider has come on strong in June to the tune of a 1.085 OPS. If not for a recent concussion as the result of a HBP, he, like Brett Lawrie, would likely be in Toronto's starting lineup by now.

Notable pitchers:

LHP Brad Mills: 95.2 IP, 96 H, 38 ER, 8 HR, 24 BB, 86 K, 3.57 ERA, 1.25 WHIP

Brad Mills has been the best pitcher of the first 3 months primarily due to his solid consistency in an extremely hostile pitching environment. In his 15 starts he has gone atleast 5 innings 14 times, and atleast 6 innings 12 times. 2011 is Mills' 3rd year in Las Vegas, and he is likely hoping to parlay his success this year into a major league roster spot.

LHP Brett Cecil: 78.2 IP, 89 H, 46 ER, 15 HR, 24 BB, 63 K, 5.26 ERA, 1.44 WHIP

After struggling in Toronto for much of April, Cecil, like Snider, was demoted to Triple-A to find his velocity and clean up some mechanical issues. In Las Vegas Cecil has seen his fair share of ups and downs, with the biggest ups being his two dominant complete-game victories, and the biggest downs being his multiple HR-allowed starts.

Rest of the year outlook: The remainder of 2011 is not likely to be kind to Las Vegas. Brett Lawrie is injured, and when he is healthy he will likely only be in Triple-A as a rehab before joining Toronto for the rest of the season. Eric Thames was recently recalled to give the major league team a spark, and with the struggles of Toronto's outfielders and the trade deadline steadily approaching, Thames is likely there to stay. Travis Snider was recently injured on a HBP, and when it happened he was also well on his way to a promotion. He is likely to join Thames in Toronto's outfield at some point in July. In addition to the offense being decimated, Brett Cecil's up-tick in velocity and increased performance is likely to earn him a promotion in the not so distant future, further weakening Las Vegas' chances at a playoff spot.

#11: CF Jake Marisnick

Name: Jacob Marisnick
Position: Center fielder
Acquired: 3rd round (2009)
Opening Day age: 20
Height/weight: 6'4", 200 lbs
Best/worst tool: Athleticism/power

Scouting Report: Jake Marisnick is the stereotypical projectable 5-tool player. Due to his excellent athleticism, his running, fielding, and throwing tools are ahead of his bat and power, but as he matures he should become a much more well rounded player. It's hard to imagine a 6'4" player being a significant base stealer in the majors, but Marisnick could easily develop into a 20/20 player while hitting close to .300 with a good approach and playing great defense in center. It speaks volumes about Marisnick that power is his weakest tool at this point, as at 20 years old he's barely below average in that tool. He is a scout's dream.

2010 Stats: .253/.336/.398 (.733 OPS), 20 2B, 2 3B, 4 HR, 26 RBI, 23 SB

2010 Analysis: Marisnick was a late sign in the 2009 draft. As such, 2010 was his first professional season and he split time between the Gulf Coast League (.832 OPS in 122 AB) and the Midwest League (.636 OPS in 127 AB). Marisnick struggled after his promotion as a 19 year old in the MWL, but it was likely a result of him being too aggressive while trying to impress.

2011 Stats: .315/.385/.486 (.871 OPS), 12 2B, 4 3B, 6 HR, 47 RBI, 18 SB

2011 Analysis: Marisnick's second trial with Lansing has gone much better, culminating in an appearance as a starting outfielder in the Midwest League All-Star game. Baseball Prospectus' Kevin Goldstein attended the game, and came away extremely impressed with Marisnick both physically and as a baseball player. He has shown a solid all-around game, hitting for average, hitting for power, while keeping a good approach at the plate and fielding well.

Future outlook: Marisnick will likely progress slowly, as the Blue Jays would be wise to focus on how Marisnick's bat is developing and not his flashy athletic tools. He should split the rest of 2011 with Lansing and Dunedin. If his bat continues to develop, Marisnick should spend 2012 in Dunedin/New Hampshire, and 2013 in New Hampshire/Las Vegas (or whatever the Triple-A affiliate is at that time). Marisnick's best case would see him as a 2013 September callup, with the potential for a regular job in 2014 depending upon the development of another center fielder in the Blue Jays system.

Perfect world projection: Star MLB center fielder, semi-regular All-Star appearances throughout his career, possible Silver Slugger and/or Gold Glove awards.

Worst case scenario: 4th outfielder in majors or fizzles out as Quad-A player.

Most likely outcome: Everyday MLB center fielder, possibly an All-Star appearance or two in his prime years.

Jose Bautista is the Toronto Blue Jays

The Blue Jays offense is in shambles. Seemingly every year around this time -- that is, interleague play -- the Blue Jays roster collapses on itself, struggling to put up any kind of a fight against their opposition. This year, the offense has been especially putrid having scored 4 or less runs in each of their last 8 games. Their record is 3-5 in those 8 games, due mostly to strong pitching performances by the starting rotation, particularly team ace Ricky Romero.

The question that needs to be asked, however, is are these struggles an isolated incident -- a cold stretch if you will, or are they a microcosm of a poor roster being exposed with the smoke and mirrors of "small ball" gone?

I have to lean towards the latter. The Blue Jays offense is constructed in a way that almost relies on hot streaks from the poor hitters to have any form of success, as when the poor hitters are hitting like themselves, the good hitters can easily be worked around, and the offense has entire innings where they send up nothing but garbage. While they are led by the league's premier hitter Jose Bautista (.474 wOBA) and have strong secondary pieces in Adam Lind (.410 wOBA), Yunel Escobar (.344 wOBA), and J.P. Arencibia (.316 wOBA), the remaining 5 spots in the lineup have been, for lack of better words, dead weight. Below are the Blue Jays wOBA values, by position, and their rankings compared to the rest of major league baseball.

RF -- .474 wOBA (1st), 4.5 WAR
1B -- .341 wOBA (15th), 2.2 WAR
SS -- .344 wOBA (5th), 1.9 WAR
C -- .334 wOBA (6th), 1.6 WAR
CF -- .292 wOBA (26th), 0.6 WAR
LF -- .295 wOBA (24th), 0.5 WAR
2B -- .272 wOBA (26th), 0.3 WAR
3B -- .269 wOBA (27th), -0.1 WAR
DH -- .294 wOBA (12th in AL), -0.7 WAR

As you can see, the Blue Jays have 4 positions ranking in the top half of baseball in wOBA, and first base would me much higher if not for Adam Lind's month long DL stint and hitters such as Juan Rivera and David Cooper getting extended time there.

Even when considering defense and base running, the remaining 5 positions have played as roughly replacement level players, at best. A replacement level player is basically organizational filler and often goes by many names among baseball fans, inclding the "Quad-A player" and "25th man". With a combined 0.6 WAR from 5 positions, each of those 5 spots has averaged 0.12 WAR this season.

In other words, on any given day, the Blue Jays lineup contains 1 superstar, 1 star, 2 above average players, and 5 players who belong on the bench of in the minors. As a serious baseball fan for over 10 years, I can't honestly say I've seen a lineup like this, particularly in the American League where the DH position should make the offense more potent. Toronto's -0.7 WAR contribution from the DH is unfathomable to the point of being laughable.

Perhaps even more amazing than the horrific nature of those 5 spots in the lineup is that, despite them, Toronto still has the 10th best wOBA (and 15th best WAR) as a team in all of baseball. We're an average to above average lineup. It's borderline unbelieveable to read and believe that sentence after seeing the numbers I just mentioned above. Jose Bautista has (albeit with substantial contributions from Lind, Escobar, and Arencibia) basically carried this team on his back for 3 months. His WAR of 4.5 consitutes 43.7% of our positional players' 10.3 WAR. We have 12-13 positional players on our roster at any given time, and one of those 12 or 13 has accounted for nearly 44% of the production. Incredible. Perhaps even more amazing is that Jose Bautista's 4.5 WAR is greater than the totals for both the Athletics (3.1 WAR) and Mariners (1.7 WAR) positional players.

Obviously, the offensive issues need to be addressed. Perhaps the most devastating and unfortunate loss this team has suffered this season is Brett Lawrie's broken hand, seemingly days before his promotion to take over the reins at third base. It was recently revealed that the injury will keep Lawrie out until atleast August, and with such news it was announced Jose Bautista will temporarily move to third base in order to remove that black hole from the lineup and create a position for the recently recalled Eric Thames. Thames will play right field, left field, as well as some DH for Toronto. Thames should help the offense, however his defense in right field does concern me. The next logical move would be to promote Travis Snider, who after a rough start to the year has revamped his swing in the minor leagues. Snider was recently hit in the helmet by a pitch, and although he is symptom free, he is likely still a couple days away from returning to the lineup. Once he has played a few games back in Las Vegas, I expect him to be promoted to Toronto, which should really help the club.

These 3 young players would dramatically improve the offense, and give Jose Bautista the support he needs and deserves. While lineup speculation is never wise, by mid August I hope to see Toronto fielding the following lineup:

1. SS Escobar (R)
2. LF Snider (L)
3. RF Bautista (R)
4. 1B Lind (L)
5. 3B Lawrie (R)
6. DH Thames (L)
7. C Arencibia (R)
8. 2B Hill (R)
9. CF Davis (R)

2011 Draft Preview

With the 2011 MLB draft only hours away, the excitement for prospect fanatics such as myself is reaching a high point. Every June, the minor leagues become infused with a new batch of prospects attempting to prove themselves in affiliate ball. Given Blue Jays GM Alex Anthopolous' lack of disclosure as to where the Blue Jays are looking in this draft, particularly in the first round, people analyzing the draft and/or creating mock drafts are doing a lot of guess work for the Toronto picks. I have noticed two trends in how Anthopolous analyzes and targets players both in trades and the draft. The first, regarding pitchers, is that Anthopolous seems to like pitchers who work with the changeup. Our coaching staff has done excellent work with changeup pitchers recently (Marcum, Romero, Cecil, etc), so any pitcher with a good fastball and a "work in progress" changeup is likely on Anthopolous' radar. The second, regarding positional players, is that Anthopolous puts a lot of weight in athleticism. He really likes tools, so it's unlikely he will spend an early pick on a future first baseman / DH type, unless they have a truly, truly special bat. The past two first rounds have seen the Blue Jays draft two big, college right handers with Chad Jenkins and Deck McGuire. After acquiring their "safe" first round pick for slot money or a little above, they have typically spent a lot of money in the middle and later rounds, going over-slot and picking up players with a lot of upside.

While I do think it is a sound philosophy (the whole "putting all your eggs in one basket" strategy has burned many teams in the past), I'd like for the Blue Jays to be a little bolder in the 2011 draft. With that in mind, below I have 11 players whom I hope the Blue Jays will look at when they pick in the first and supplemental first round tonight. In parentheses before the name is their rank on Jonathan Mayo's MLB.com draft prospect list.

(13) RHP Taylor Guerrieri, Spring Valley (So. Carolina) HS -- 18, 6'3", 195 lbs

Guerrieri has average command and features a 92-97 mph fastball, a plus 83-84 mph curveball, an 87-90 mph cutter, and a work in progress changeup. He has an athletic pitcher's body with a smooth delivery and arm action. Guerrieri has a commitment to South Carolina.

*Note: Jonathan Mayo's final mock draft has Toronto taking Guerrieri at 21

(15) LHP Daniel Norris, Science Hill (Tenn.) HS -- 18, 6'2", 180 lbs

Norris has good command of plus fastball that sits 92 mph and touch the mid 90's. He also features a curveball with the potential to be plus- down the road and an average changeup. Norris has received positive reports on his mound presence and makeup, but his delivery isn't the best and may need to be changed in the future. Norris has a commitment to Clemson.

(19) C/OF Blake Swihart, V. Sue Cleveland (N. Mexico) HS -- 19, 6'1", 175 lbs

Swihart is a switch hitter with a great swing from both sides of the plate, and has above average power. His defensive position is up for debate, but a corner outfield is his likely destination. Swihart has a strong commitment to Texas.

(20) RHP Alex Meyer, Kentucky (Junior) 21, -- 6'9", 220 lbs

Meyers was originally drafted by the Red Sox in the 20th round in 2008. Since that time Meyer has established himself with two plus pitches, a tailing 96-97 mph fastball and a power 86-88 mph slider. He also features an 85 mph changeup that has the potential to be an average pitch. Meyer has had serious struggles with command in the past, but has recently improved to fringy average, consistently getting ahead in counts.

(21) LHP Henry Owens, Edison (Calif.) HS -- 18, 6'6", 190 lbs

Owens has a good delivery and arm action that and features a wide array of pitches that, along with his side, have put him on the scouting map. Owens features a 90-94 mph fastball, a wide breaking slurvy 75-77 mph slider, two different 69-74 mph curveballs (one for called strikes, the other for swinging strikes), as well as a changeup. He has a lot of polish and advanced command for a high school pitcher. Owens has a commitment to Miami.

(22) OF Mikie Mahtook, LSU (Junior) -- 21, 6'1", 200 lbs

Mahtook has a good swing with great bat speed and solid mechanics. He hits to all fields, but his average power is primarily to his pull side. Mahtook is atheltic with good instincts, allowing him to play any outfield position (though his arm is a bit weak for right field) and run the bases well.

(23) OF Joshua Bell, Jesuit College Prep (Texas) HS -- 18, 6'4", 195 lbs

Bell might be the most intriguing bat outside of Anthony Rendon and Bubba Starling. Bell is a switch hitter who has plus hit and power from both sides of the plate. He has an average arm and is an average runner, making a corner outfield his likely future. He should still be an above average defender. Bell has a strong commitment to Texas, and may be the toughest sign of the draft.

(30) RHP Robert Stephenson, Alhambra (Calif.) HS -- 18, 6'2", 190 lbs

Stephenson has a three pitch repetoire of a fastball that touches 97 mph, an inconsistent plus curveball, and a work in progress changeup. He is a strike thrower with decent command (but better control) and an excellent makeup. Stephenson has a commitment to Washington.

(36) OF Brian Goodwin, Miami Dade Junior College (Sophomore) -- 20, 6'1", 195 lbs

Goodwin was originally drafted by the White Sox in the 17th round in 2009. Goodwin is a left handed hitter with an above average bat, a good approach, and the potential for above average power to all fields. Goodwin is an above average runner, both in the field and on the basepaths. He has a good arm and a solid glove, which when combined with his speed should allow him to play any outfield position. Goodwin does have some baggage, as he transferred to Miami Dade from UNC when he faced academic suspension.

(44) OF Charlie Tilson, New Trier (Illinois) HS -- 18, 5'11", 175 lbs

Tilson has the potential to hit at the top of a lineup in the future due to a combination of strong contact skills, a good approach, and above average speed. He's primarily a slap hitter with below average power, but he does have time and the frame to build up muscle. He plays an average centerfield with an accurate but below average arm. Tilson has a strong commitment to Illinois.

(50) LHP Josh Osich, Oregon State (Senior) -- 22, 6'3", 235 lbs

Osich was originally drafted by the Angels in the 7th round in 2010. Osich redshirted as a Junior after undergoing Tommy John surgery. Osich has worked as a starter in 2011 but his future is likely as a late inning reliever. He features a 92-97 mph fastball and a changeup which has the potential to be average to above average. He also uses a slider, though it would likely not be used if he were a reliever. If Osich is used as a reliever he could be in the major leagues quickly.

The mysterious case of Luis Perez

When Jesse Litsch went down with an arm injury in May, causing then long-guy Carlos Villanueva to slide into the rotation, a distinct void was created in the bullpen. In the first month and a half of the season, many starters had been pulled early in ballgames due to either injury or ineffectiveness, and Villanueva proved himself invaluable as he stepped in and threw multiple innings, saving some of the other arms. Villanueva's value didn't lie solely as an inning eater, as in his 13 appearances (24.1 IP) he pitched to a 1.48 ERA and 0.82 WHIP to go along with 21 strikeouts. He kept the Blue Jays in games that they didn't deserve to have a chance at winning.

As I mentioned, his promotion left a void in the bullpen, with no suitable long man in place. Shawn Camp had proven capable of going multiple innings on occasion, but he has shown to be best used in the late innings when a ground ball is absolutely needed. Luis Perez, a Triple-A Las Vegas starting pitcher who had made a few spot appearances earlier in the year, was chosen to take Villanueva's spot.

Luis Perez has been a bit of an enigma in the Blue Jays system since being signed as an undrafted free agent in the summer of 2003. He served exclusively as a starting pitcher and performed extremely well in his first 3 years, averaging over a strikeout per inning and with a GO/AO ratio around 3 -- two things you always look for in young pitchers, strikeouts and groundouts. Once he reached Double-A in 2009, with the trend continuing through 2010, Perez saw his strikeout rate plummet and his GO/AO ratio fall to below 2.4 (still exceptional, but a noticable drop off). In addition to these two key rates falling, both his walk rate and homerun numbers increased, causing his ERA to balloon to a career worst 5.40 in 2010.

Prior to 2011 I had never seen Luis Perez pitch, and as such my opinion of him changed on a regular basis, usually depending upon whose scouting report I'm reading. At the end of last year I had soured on Perez, even suggesting he could be removed from the 40-man and exposed to the Rule 5 draft late last year, as I considered him nothing more than organizational depth. However, after finally watching him pitch, I'm elated that Anthopolous did not give up on him. Perez works a solid three pitch repetoire consisting of a fastball, slider, and changeup. The fastball is hard, averaging ~93 mph thus far, and also carries a lot of sink, which when combined with his slider creates a ton of ground balls. The effectiveness of his fastball came as quite a shock to me. I was aware of it's sharp sink, but I was hearing that he worked 88-89, not 92-93. For a sinkerballer, particularly a left hander, that's the difference between an average offering and a plus pitch. Additionally, he appears to have put a lot of effort into his changeup. He doesn't throw it particularly often -- he works primarily with his sinker -- but the fact that he is capable and willing to throw it adds another dimension for hitters to be concerned with.

While there are examples of short pitchers having success in the major leagues, it's primarily in the bullpen, which is where I think Perez will work in Toronto. For every Roy Oswalt, there are probably 5-10 Jason Frasors. His height isn't the biggest issue, however, as Perez weighs in at a slim 160 lbs. While he has proven capable of throwing 100 pitches in an outing in the minors, one has to question how well his stuff would translate into the 7th inning on a regular basis, facing major league hitters in highly stressful situations. If Perez gets tired and his sinker flattens out, he's likely to get shelled as his slider and changeup aren't good enough to carry the load.

With that being said, I have really enjoyed watching Luis Perez work this year, and I hope that when/if Villanueva returns to the bullpen we are still able to find him a spot in Toronto. Minor league numbers for the past few years aside, it's clear to me that Perez is capable of pitching in the major leagues. The bullpen is likely to once again undergo a major facelift this summer/fall (I don't expect any of Francisco, Rauch, or Dotel to be here in 2012), and I'd be quite comfortable if Perez was the long guy or a middle reliever here for the next couple years.