2011 Draft Preview

With the 2011 MLB draft only hours away, the excitement for prospect fanatics such as myself is reaching a high point. Every June, the minor leagues become infused with a new batch of prospects attempting to prove themselves in affiliate ball. Given Blue Jays GM Alex Anthopolous' lack of disclosure as to where the Blue Jays are looking in this draft, particularly in the first round, people analyzing the draft and/or creating mock drafts are doing a lot of guess work for the Toronto picks. I have noticed two trends in how Anthopolous analyzes and targets players both in trades and the draft. The first, regarding pitchers, is that Anthopolous seems to like pitchers who work with the changeup. Our coaching staff has done excellent work with changeup pitchers recently (Marcum, Romero, Cecil, etc), so any pitcher with a good fastball and a "work in progress" changeup is likely on Anthopolous' radar. The second, regarding positional players, is that Anthopolous puts a lot of weight in athleticism. He really likes tools, so it's unlikely he will spend an early pick on a future first baseman / DH type, unless they have a truly, truly special bat. The past two first rounds have seen the Blue Jays draft two big, college right handers with Chad Jenkins and Deck McGuire. After acquiring their "safe" first round pick for slot money or a little above, they have typically spent a lot of money in the middle and later rounds, going over-slot and picking up players with a lot of upside.

While I do think it is a sound philosophy (the whole "putting all your eggs in one basket" strategy has burned many teams in the past), I'd like for the Blue Jays to be a little bolder in the 2011 draft. With that in mind, below I have 11 players whom I hope the Blue Jays will look at when they pick in the first and supplemental first round tonight. In parentheses before the name is their rank on Jonathan Mayo's MLB.com draft prospect list.

(13) RHP Taylor Guerrieri, Spring Valley (So. Carolina) HS -- 18, 6'3", 195 lbs

Guerrieri has average command and features a 92-97 mph fastball, a plus 83-84 mph curveball, an 87-90 mph cutter, and a work in progress changeup. He has an athletic pitcher's body with a smooth delivery and arm action. Guerrieri has a commitment to South Carolina.

*Note: Jonathan Mayo's final mock draft has Toronto taking Guerrieri at 21

(15) LHP Daniel Norris, Science Hill (Tenn.) HS -- 18, 6'2", 180 lbs

Norris has good command of plus fastball that sits 92 mph and touch the mid 90's. He also features a curveball with the potential to be plus- down the road and an average changeup. Norris has received positive reports on his mound presence and makeup, but his delivery isn't the best and may need to be changed in the future. Norris has a commitment to Clemson.

(19) C/OF Blake Swihart, V. Sue Cleveland (N. Mexico) HS -- 19, 6'1", 175 lbs

Swihart is a switch hitter with a great swing from both sides of the plate, and has above average power. His defensive position is up for debate, but a corner outfield is his likely destination. Swihart has a strong commitment to Texas.

(20) RHP Alex Meyer, Kentucky (Junior) 21, -- 6'9", 220 lbs

Meyers was originally drafted by the Red Sox in the 20th round in 2008. Since that time Meyer has established himself with two plus pitches, a tailing 96-97 mph fastball and a power 86-88 mph slider. He also features an 85 mph changeup that has the potential to be an average pitch. Meyer has had serious struggles with command in the past, but has recently improved to fringy average, consistently getting ahead in counts.

(21) LHP Henry Owens, Edison (Calif.) HS -- 18, 6'6", 190 lbs

Owens has a good delivery and arm action that and features a wide array of pitches that, along with his side, have put him on the scouting map. Owens features a 90-94 mph fastball, a wide breaking slurvy 75-77 mph slider, two different 69-74 mph curveballs (one for called strikes, the other for swinging strikes), as well as a changeup. He has a lot of polish and advanced command for a high school pitcher. Owens has a commitment to Miami.

(22) OF Mikie Mahtook, LSU (Junior) -- 21, 6'1", 200 lbs

Mahtook has a good swing with great bat speed and solid mechanics. He hits to all fields, but his average power is primarily to his pull side. Mahtook is atheltic with good instincts, allowing him to play any outfield position (though his arm is a bit weak for right field) and run the bases well.

(23) OF Joshua Bell, Jesuit College Prep (Texas) HS -- 18, 6'4", 195 lbs

Bell might be the most intriguing bat outside of Anthony Rendon and Bubba Starling. Bell is a switch hitter who has plus hit and power from both sides of the plate. He has an average arm and is an average runner, making a corner outfield his likely future. He should still be an above average defender. Bell has a strong commitment to Texas, and may be the toughest sign of the draft.

(30) RHP Robert Stephenson, Alhambra (Calif.) HS -- 18, 6'2", 190 lbs

Stephenson has a three pitch repetoire of a fastball that touches 97 mph, an inconsistent plus curveball, and a work in progress changeup. He is a strike thrower with decent command (but better control) and an excellent makeup. Stephenson has a commitment to Washington.

(36) OF Brian Goodwin, Miami Dade Junior College (Sophomore) -- 20, 6'1", 195 lbs

Goodwin was originally drafted by the White Sox in the 17th round in 2009. Goodwin is a left handed hitter with an above average bat, a good approach, and the potential for above average power to all fields. Goodwin is an above average runner, both in the field and on the basepaths. He has a good arm and a solid glove, which when combined with his speed should allow him to play any outfield position. Goodwin does have some baggage, as he transferred to Miami Dade from UNC when he faced academic suspension.

(44) OF Charlie Tilson, New Trier (Illinois) HS -- 18, 5'11", 175 lbs

Tilson has the potential to hit at the top of a lineup in the future due to a combination of strong contact skills, a good approach, and above average speed. He's primarily a slap hitter with below average power, but he does have time and the frame to build up muscle. He plays an average centerfield with an accurate but below average arm. Tilson has a strong commitment to Illinois.

(50) LHP Josh Osich, Oregon State (Senior) -- 22, 6'3", 235 lbs

Osich was originally drafted by the Angels in the 7th round in 2010. Osich redshirted as a Junior after undergoing Tommy John surgery. Osich has worked as a starter in 2011 but his future is likely as a late inning reliever. He features a 92-97 mph fastball and a changeup which has the potential to be average to above average. He also uses a slider, though it would likely not be used if he were a reliever. If Osich is used as a reliever he could be in the major leagues quickly.