Monday, October 3, 2011

Making the Grade: The Starters


The first segment of "Making the Grade" will be Toronto's starting pitchers. While we saw a large number of different pitchers make starts throughout the year, this list will be exclusively for pitchers who either finished the season in the starting rotation, or made more starts than relief appearances throughout the duration of the season.

Part II Making the Grade: The Bullpen
Part III Making the Grade: The Infield
Part IV Making the Grade: The Outfield

LHP Ricky Romero (26)
15-11, 225 IP, 176 H, 73 ER, 26 HR, 80 BB, 178 K
2.92 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 2.23 K/BB, 7.12 K/9, 1.79 GO/AO

For the second consecutive offseason, Toronto traded their previous years' Opening Day starter, which forced Romero directly into the spotlight as the new ace of the staff. Ricky stepped up to the challenge being laid down, posting careers bests in innings pitched, ERA, and walks per nine. Romero fully embraced the ace mantra, as he sacrificed strikeouts in an effort to go deeper into ball games (2010: 15.3 pitches per inning, 2011: 14.9 pitches per innning). In addition to throwing more 2-seam fastballs, Romero also threw harder than ever before, with his fastball averaging 92.0 mph in 2011 after averaging 90.9 mph in 2010. The only thing holding him back from an A+ grade are home runs allowed, where Romero's 26 were tied for 4th in the AL.

Grade: A

RHP Brandon Morrow (27)
11-11, 179.1 IP, 162 H, 94 ER, 21 HR, 69 BB, 203 K
4.72 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 2.94 K/BB, 10.19 K/9, 0.71 GO/AO

To say that expectation were high for Brandon Morrow entering 2011 would be a colossal understatement. After putting together a 3.69 ERA and 1.21 WHIP in the second half of 2010, it was thought Morrow was ready to take the next step into ace-dome and help Ricky Romero lead this pitching staff into the future. While Romero took the step forward, Morrow stumbled out of the starting block (5.51 ERA, 1.56 WHIP in May after making only 2 April starts) and was never able to fully recover. The three positives to come from Morrow's season were his health, the development of a cutter late in the season as well as an improvement in command (2010: 4.06 BB/9, 2011: 3.46 BB/9), which kept him from a failing grade.

Grade: C

LHP Brett Cecil (25)
4-11, 123.2 IP, 122 H, 65 ER, 22 HR, 42 BB, 87 K
4.73 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 2.07 K/BB, 6.33 K/9, 0.81 GO/AO

While the W/L record and ERA look bad, Cecil's 2011 season wasn't that different than his breakout 2010 season. His strikeout rate improved, while his walk and groundball rates declined slightly. The biggest difference was a spiked home run rate (2010: 8.7% HR/FB, 2011: 13.3% HR/FB), which was likely the result of a decline in average fastball velocity (2010: 90.1 mph, 2011: 88.5 mph). Cecil has put on 10-15 lbs since being drafted, so it is possible the dip in velocity is related to a lack of conditioning on Cecil's part. Cecil did not do enough in 2011 to guarantee a rotation spot entering next season, so hopefully he will take offseason workouts more seriously this time around.

Grade: C-

RHP Henderson Alvarez (21)
1-3, 63.2 IP, 64 H, 25 ER, 8 HR, 8 BB, 40 K
3.53 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 5.00 K/BB, 5.65 K/9, 1.75 GO/AO

Henderson Alvarez has almost everything you want in a pitching prospect. Despite being plucked from the minor leagues at the ripe age of 21, he showed no fear in facing major league hitters, carving up lineups with command (1.13 BB/9) that hasn't been seen in Toronto since Roy Halladay left town. Alvarez works primarily off his heavy 92-95 mph fastball (averaged 93.3 mph), throwing it 71.8% of the time. His changeup came as advertised, while his slider looked surprisingly good given how sparingly he throws it. His one victory in ten starts should ashame the Blue Jays offense, as Hendo was the 2nd best pitcher on the team over the last two months of the season. The only issue with Hendo is the lack of strikeouts, as pitchers with stuff like him should not have a sub-6 K/9.

Grade: A-

RHP Dustin McGowan (29)
0-2, 21 IP, 20 H, 15 ER, 4 HR, 13 BB, 20 K
6.43 ERA, 1.57 WHIP, 1.54 K/BB, 8.57 K/9, 1.47 GO/AO

The fact that McGowan has returned to the big leagues at all is a victory in and of itself, and as such expectations should be grounded. After missing nearly three full seasons due to a variety of injuries, McGowan managed to pitch quite well in his return. The walk rate was high, but given that command is always the last thing to return after coming back from serious arm injuries, it's unsurprising. The biggest positive for McGowan was that he maintained his strong repetoire despite the layoff. His fastball averaged 93.0 mph, and his power slider clocked in with an 86.9 mph average.

Grade: B+

RHP Kyle Drabek (23)
4-5, 78.2 IP, 87 H, 53 ER, 10 HR, 55 BB, 51 K
6.06 ERA, 1.81 WHIP, 0.93 K/BB, 5.83 K/9, 1.22 GO/AO

It's extremely difficult to say anything positive about Kyle Drabek's season. Plain and simply, he shit the bed. At the time of his demotion he led all of baseball in walks, and was one of the few pitchers with fewer strikeouts than walks. In addition to losing any semblance of command, he got hit around, and his .310 BABIP suggests hitters weren't getting lucky -- they were driving balls. Drbaek was demoted to Triple-A in June and actually pitched worse in the minor leagues. Experts are flabbergasted at Drabek's implosion, and it can only be hoped that four months away from pitching and a clean slate to start 2012 will be the cure to what ails him.

Grade: F

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