Wednesday, November 16, 2011

The Huston Street business


For the first time this offseason, the Blue Jays are reportedly interested in a closer with whom I also have some interest -- Huston Street. Despite seemingly being around forever (he's been an MLB regular since 2005), Street only turned 28 years old in August of this past season. He's played for two different teams in his seven year major league career. The first four years (2005 to 2008) came with the Oakland A's, where he was drafted in the 1st round of the 2004 draft. After the 2008 season, he was traded with a package of other players to the Colorado Rockies in exchange for Matt Holliday. He has spent the last three years (2009 to 2011) with those Rockies, working primarily as the closer when he wasn't on the disabled list, an issue he dealt with frequently in Colorado.

His Oakland A's career was strong in all facets, though it was likely highlighted by his debut rookie season (2005) in which he won the American League Rookie of the Year award. Statistically speaking, 2006 was his best, as he produced 2.4 WAR despite a 3.31 ERA. His season was powered by an impressive 67-to-13 strikeout to walk ratio and only 4 home runs allowed, two traits Street has carried through his entire career. Since being traded to Colorado, Street has seen his homerun rate increase (almost entirely due to making the move from The Coliseum to Coors Field), though outside of 2011 (14.5% HR/FB) his homerun rate has still been better than league average.

Street doesn't overpower hitters, but he has command of three good pitches. After working off a four-seam fastball in the early part of his career, Street has recently switched to a two-seam fastball. This was most likely an attempt to generate more movement and to avoid the homerun ball while playing in the high altitude of Coors Field. The two-seamer averages 90 mph (touching 93 mph) and has strong vertical drop and horizontal movement. At 56.7% of his pitches thrown the past two seasons, it is his go-to pitch. His primary breaking ball is a swing-and-miss slider. The pitch averages 83 mph and shows late break, making it difficult to square up. His third pitch is a changeup that sits 8-9 mph below his fastball. Street does not throw a traditional changeup, he instead throws a circle-change that has nearly equal vertical drop and horizontal movement, floating away from left handed hitters. The circle grip pushes the ball while a traditional changeup shows predominantly vertical drop. As mentioned, Street has plus-plus command, putting together a career 2.29 BB/9. Perhaps harnessing his inner Texan, Street is a warrior on the mound, showing nerves of steel and rarely losing his cool even under the most strenuous circumstances. Mechanically, Street throws from a 3/4 arm slot and has a sound, repeatable delivery that generates consistent release points on all of his pitches.



Street signed a 3 year, 22.5M extension with Colorado prior to the 2010 season, which now has one year remaining at 7.5M. The contract also includes a 9M player option for 2013, with a 0.5M buyout. This is the main reason why Colorado is looking to move Street, as their front office believes that with Rafael Betancourt and others, they can maintain a strong back end of the bullpen without paying one player this much money. At 1 year, 8M (buyout included) or 2 years, 16.5 (option picked up), Huston Street is a much better financial investment than any big-name closer on the market, and if healthy would likely perform better than every free agent closer not named Jonathan Papelbon. The Bill James handbook projects a 2.74 ERA, 3.08 FIP 2012 season for Street, which would be exceptional numbers in any bullpen.

Colorado's initial asking price may be steep, but it's doubtful Toronto would have to fork over any of their top 4 prospects. A player in the 6-10 range (which is the equivalent of a 3-5 prospect in many systems) or a "B" prospect, is the most likely scenario. Players like Deck McGuire or Nestor Molina could greatly interest Colorado, as they have both shown good (or in Molina's case, outstanding) command, while posting solid groundball rates -- both of which are important traits in any future Rockies pitcher. McGuire and Molina are also close enough to the majors that at least some of the prospect risk is diminished, as developed Double-A pitchers are far safer acquisitions than a projectible Low-A pitcher. If the Rockies would prefer a package deal instead of a 1-for-1, the Blue Jays could oblige, as Toronto boasts one of the deepest farm systems in baseball. Perhaps a sinkerballer like Chad Jenkins and a future back of the 'pen arm like Asher Wojciechowski would interest them.

Jonathan Papelbon is off the market, and it's possible most teams are sitting in the proverbial bushes waiting for other teams to make a move before pouncing on their desired target. Toronto would be wise to avoid falling into this market stagnation however, as demand could skyrocket as supply diminshes, forcing the club to offer more than it is comfortable. Additionally, an acquistion of a sure-fire closer like Huston Street could force the preceding closer, Type-A free agent Frank Francisco, to decline arbitration and net the Blue Jays two extra draft picks, assuming the new Collective Bargaining Agreement does not squelch that rule for the upcoming draft. Blue Jays General Manager Alex Anthopolous has openly stated he prefers to spend money over giving term, and Huston Street is the perfect way to get a good closer without being locked into a 3 or 4 year deal.

No comments:

Post a Comment