2012 Top Prospects #2: Jake Marisnick

Name: Jake Marisnick
Position: Centerfield
Acquired: 3rd round (2009)
Opening Day age: 21
Height/weight: 6’4”/200 lbs
Best/worst tool: Speed/power
Risk factor: Medium
ETA: 2013

Scouting Report

The best/worst tool category is almost a joke with Marisnick, as he has all the tools and they’re all varying degrees of awesome. This wasn’t always the case, however, as only a year ago there were some serious questions about whether Marisnick’s offensive abilities could handle elite professional pitching. Many of those questions were answered in 2011, as he displayed a marked improvement at the plate. His stance is very wide, with his back foot at the back of the box (like most hitters) and his front foot actually in front of home plate. His hands are very high, but he gets them through the zone quickly to generate excellent bat speed. His patience at the plate has improved, though he still has some work to do in that regard. Marisnick is predominantly a fastball hitter, but should improve against breaking balls as he gets exposed to them in the higher levels. He has at least above average potential with the bat, possibly even plus, as he could be a .290-.300 hitter. His power is perhaps his worst tool, but it should still be above average down the road. He has more line drive power than true home run power, as he may never be more than a 20-25 home run guy, though the doubles and triples will make up for that. Despite his size (6’4”, 200 lbs), Marisnick is an exceptional athlete. He’s a good base runner with plus speed, though the stolen base numbers could decline as he ages. His athleticism aids him in the outfield, where he’s an above average defender with both great reads and great range. His arm could be considered a plus tool in center field. Given his size it’s possible he’ll eventually be move to right field, a process that may be accelerated if and when he joins Anthony Gose in Toronto’s outfield.

2011 Statistics and Analysis

462 AB, .320/.392/.496 (.888 OPS), 27 2B, 6 3B, 14 HR, 77 RBI, 37 SB, 43/91 BB/K

Some call it repeating a level, but given that Marisnick played in only 34 Midwest League games in 2010, that’s a difficult argument to justify. He put the tools together and had one of the most consistently dominant minor league seasons I’ve ever had the pleasure of following. In the five month regular season, Marisnick had a .900+ OPS in three months (April, July, August), an .800-.899 OPS in one month (June), and a .700-.799 OPS in one month (May). That’s remarkable consistency, proving that not only were his improvements very real, but he was able to adapt as pitchers made adjustments when facing him. The improved bat skills were the most notable, as Marisnick ranked 2nd in the league in BA, 4th in OBP, 8th in SLG, and 4th in OPS. Marisnick’s combination of power and speed generated plenty of counting stats (47 XBH, 37 SB), and should continue to do so moving forward.

Expected 2012 Assignment: High-A Dunedin

Future Outlook

Without a doubt, Marisnick was more than ready to play in the Florida State League last summer, but was held back for reasons unbeknownst to me. The most likely explanation may be that the Lugnuts were a strong team making a playoff push (they went on to lose in the Midwest League Championship), and the front office wanted their top prospect to learn how to play and succeed under pressure. Regardless, Marisnick’s Dunedin debut has been delayed until this April, where he’ll once again unite with Marcus Knecht and Michael Crouse to form a talented and dynamic outfield. The stay in Dunedin shouldn’t be nearly as long as the Lansing stop, as Marisnick has impressed in Spring Training and appears to be further along than most expected. He should finish this season with Double-A New Hampshire, and after starting there again in 2013, Marisnick could have a tri-level year (Double-A, Triple-A, MLB), making his debut as a September callup. With a player as talented as Marisnick it’s hard to ever consider him blocked, but with Colby Rasmus, Anthony Gose, and Jose Bautista ahead of him on the depth chart, he may need a couple of trades and a Bautista defensive switch to first base to claim a starting outfield job in the spring of 2014.

Perfect World Projection: All Star Centerfielder, Gold Glove contender.

2012 Top Prospects #3: Anthony Gose

Name: Anthony Gose
Position: Centerfield
Acquired: 2nd round (2008), from Houston via Philadelphia
Opening Day age: 21
Height/weight: 6’1”/190 lbs
Best/worst tool: Arm/Bat
Risk factor: Medium
ETA: 2013

Scouting Report

Blue Jays General Manager Alex Anthopolous originally targeted Gose in the Roy Halladay trade talks with the Phillies, before eventually settling with Michael Taylor. Seven months and two prospects swaps later, Anthopolous finally had his man. After his first full season in the Blue Jays organization, it’s clear why the GM had his eyes on Gose – he’s got more tools than Mike Holmes’ workshop. In addition to playing outfield, Gose pitched in high school, clocking as high as 95 mph off the mound. That arm plays as a true 80 tool in center field, evident by his 13, 16, and 14 outfield assists over the last three seasons. His arm isn’t his only 80 tool, as Gose is likely a future Gold Glover in center field. His reads off the bat have improved significantly over the past few years, and when combined with his speed, he has exceptional range in center field. Like Brett Lawrie in Toronto, Gose gives 100% on every play, which some might consider a bit reckless. It’s especially dangerous when considering the situations his plus-plus speed might put him in, but that’s the way Gose plays, and no one is going to change him. While he’s exceptionally fast, his base running abilities haven’t always been as sharp, with him often running into outs. That’s something he’s put in effort into improving, however, and with an 82% success rate stealing bases in 2011, the works appears to be paying off. His power has made huge strides, as he’s transformed it from a below average tool to above average, with the potential for 15-20 home runs and a plethora of other extra base hits. The only aspect of his game that is lacking is his bat skills, where he’s below average. He has lightning fast hands and repeats his swing with a smooth weight transfer. He has a bit of a bat wiggle, but his stance is otherwise quiet with a wide base. Gose’s eye at the plate is good enough for him to consistently get deep into counts, but he lacks a sound two-strike approach which leads to plenty of strikeouts. His front side will occasionally fly open, exposing the outer half of the plate and making him susceptible to breaking balls.

2011 Statistics and Analysis

509 AB, .253/.349/.415 (.763 OPS), 20 2B, 7 3B, 16 HR, 59 RBI, 70 SB, 62/154 BB/K

While the batting average and strikeout rate (26.2%) are disappointing, Gose did improve a number of aspects of his game in 2011. The most notable difference was his power. His 162 ISO was a huge improvement on his 131 and 094 marks in 2010 and 2009 respectively, as was his 33.3 XBH%. While his strikeout rate did spike, his walk rate (10.6%) also rose with this power increase, a sign that he’s maturing as a hitter. Caught stealing became a bit of a problem in 2010 after Gose was successful in only 58% of his attempted stolen bases, but he turned that from a liability into a strength, succeeding in 82% of his attempts last season. Despite his speed, bunting hasn’t been a big part of Gose’s professional game. It’s possible that his coaches might push that on him a little more next season to boost his numbers, as only 20 bunt single attempts could raise his batting average significantly.

Expected 2012 Assignment: Triple-A Las Vegas

Future Outlook

Despite only turning 21 last August, Gose will be assigned to Triple-A in what will be his fourth year in full season ball. Since being drafted by Philadelphia and being assigned to the Single-A Sally League as an 18 year old, Gose has always been young for the level he’s played at. While this is perhaps a detriment to his overall numbers, it’s a developmental approach that will keep him challenged and better prepare him for facing major league caliber pitching. With Las Vegas and the Pacific Coast League on the immediate horizon, Gose could put up some pretty ridiculous numbers in 2012. While it will be easy to get excited about the possible .300 average and 20+ home runs he’s likely going to hit, statistics like walk rate, strikeout rate, and BABIP will be the true indicators of whether or not Gose is actually learning something. His defense and athleticism will get him to Toronto in 2013, but his bat will determine if it’s as a regular or as a part timer.

Perfect World Projection: Everyday CF who hits at the top of the lineup, regular Gold Glove winner.


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I have recently been hired as a Staff Writer over at Jays Journal, and therefore will be taking a hiatus from posting on Hypocritical Sports Fan after the conclusion of the Top 30 prospect series. I would like to thank you, my readers, as you are the reason why my writing was noticed by the guys at Jays Journal, and have allowed me to write for a much larger audience. I hope you will continue to follow my work over there, as I will continue to bring the same insight and analysis I have at HSF over the past year.

My first piece for the Journal was a look at Kyle Drabek, I hope you read and enjoy.

2012 Top Prospects #4: Daniel Norris

Name: Daniel Norris
Position: Left-handed Pitcher
Acquired: 2nd round (2011)
Opening Day age: 18
Height/weight: 6’2”/180 lbs
Best/worst tool: Fastball/mechanics
Risk factor: High
ETA: 2015

Scouting Report

If he can put all the pieces together, Norris has the tools to be one of the best starters in the American League. The biggest problem to this point in his career has been consistency. His velocity, command, and mechanics have all succumb to his inconsistencies at some point, and to become a major league pitcher he’ll need to smooth out those flaws. It’s certainly not due to a lack of passion or work ethic, as Norris has exceptional makeup and maturity beyond his years. The key to unlocking his potential could be professional coaching with a steady plan, as Norris has all the tools you could want from a left-handed starter. He has a long, loose, physical, and projectable body, and as a former football player he has plenty of athleticism. His fastball has at least plus potential with excellent command and heavy run and sink, but his velocity varies greatly from inning to inning and start to start. On the low end Norris will sit 90-92 mph, touching 94 mph. On the high end, he sits 93-96 mph –- touching even higher –- making scouts drool at the potential hidden in his arm. He backs up the fastball with a mid-to-upper 70’s curveball that has shown plus potential. Its effectiveness is directly linked to his mechanics, as when his delivery is smooth he snaps them off with tight spin and late break, but the pitch begins to loop when he can’t find his timing or release point. Norris also throws a low 80’s straight changeup that is very advanced for an 18 year old, and could be an above average to fringe-plus pitch in a few years. Rounding out the arsenal is a mid 80’s slider. It shows hard tilt when he’s throwing it well, but he has issues with it slowing down and becoming more of a slurve. The pitch can sometimes take away from the effectiveness of his curveball, and it’s possible he’ll squeeze the slider out of his sequencing as he develops. Norris works from the 3/4 arm slot and has excellent arm action, though there is some effort to his delivery that has caused concern. The complexity of his windup is a big contributor to his lack of consistent command, so it’s possible that coaching him into a more sound delivery could alleviate his two biggest problems.


2011 Statistics and Analysis

8-2, 68.1 IP, 17 ER, 123 K, 2.24 ERA, 16.20 K/9

While he didn’t pitch in affiliated ball as a deadline signee, the statistics from Norris’ senior year at Science Hill High School were available, so we actually have something to look at in this section. His entire collection of statistics couldn’t be found, so we’re missing some useful barometers like hits allowed, walks, and WHIP, but the above numbers do paint a rather attractive picture of the kind of pitcher Daniel Norris is. Striking out one batter per inning (or a 9.00 K/9) is very impressive. Norris nearly doubled that, and while high school numbers are typically extreme, 16.20 K/9 is something you only see when you play single player in MLB: The Show and set your opponents contact rate to 0. We’re also not talking about a second or third tier baseball state, as Norris played in Tennessee, one of the baseball hotbeds in the United States. It’s quickly obvious why Norris was rated by Baseball America as the number one left handed high school pitcher in his draft class, and why Blue Jays fans are very excited about the system’s number one pitching prospect.

Expected 2012 Assignment: Low-A Vancouver

Future Outlook

Norris has shown an eagerness to get on the field, but Toronto might try and curb some of that enthusiasm to protect their asset. After throwing 68 innings in his senior year, Norris should be more than capable of a full season assignment. It would be fascinating for Blue Jays fans, as if that were the case, Norris would join fellow top-10 prospects Noah Syndergaard, Justin Nicolino, and Aaron Sanchez in the Single-A Lansing rotation. Should Toronto choose to take a more cautious approach, he’d be assigned to Low-A Vancouver in the Northwest League. Under that circumstance, Norris wouldn’t see full season ball and start compiling 100+ inning seasons until 2013. As a high school arm who has yet to throw a professional pitch, projecting his major league debut is silly and a bit ridiculous, as he could feasibly debut anytime between 2014 and 2016, depending upon health, development, and minor league success. To take the cowards way out, I’ll split the difference and suggest 2015.

Perfect World Projection: Top of the rotation starter, future All Star.