2012 Top Prospects #4: Daniel Norris

Name: Daniel Norris
Position: Left-handed Pitcher
Acquired: 2nd round (2011)
Opening Day age: 18
Height/weight: 6’2”/180 lbs
Best/worst tool: Fastball/mechanics
Risk factor: High
ETA: 2015

Scouting Report

If he can put all the pieces together, Norris has the tools to be one of the best starters in the American League. The biggest problem to this point in his career has been consistency. His velocity, command, and mechanics have all succumb to his inconsistencies at some point, and to become a major league pitcher he’ll need to smooth out those flaws. It’s certainly not due to a lack of passion or work ethic, as Norris has exceptional makeup and maturity beyond his years. The key to unlocking his potential could be professional coaching with a steady plan, as Norris has all the tools you could want from a left-handed starter. He has a long, loose, physical, and projectable body, and as a former football player he has plenty of athleticism. His fastball has at least plus potential with excellent command and heavy run and sink, but his velocity varies greatly from inning to inning and start to start. On the low end Norris will sit 90-92 mph, touching 94 mph. On the high end, he sits 93-96 mph –- touching even higher –- making scouts drool at the potential hidden in his arm. He backs up the fastball with a mid-to-upper 70’s curveball that has shown plus potential. Its effectiveness is directly linked to his mechanics, as when his delivery is smooth he snaps them off with tight spin and late break, but the pitch begins to loop when he can’t find his timing or release point. Norris also throws a low 80’s straight changeup that is very advanced for an 18 year old, and could be an above average to fringe-plus pitch in a few years. Rounding out the arsenal is a mid 80’s slider. It shows hard tilt when he’s throwing it well, but he has issues with it slowing down and becoming more of a slurve. The pitch can sometimes take away from the effectiveness of his curveball, and it’s possible he’ll squeeze the slider out of his sequencing as he develops. Norris works from the 3/4 arm slot and has excellent arm action, though there is some effort to his delivery that has caused concern. The complexity of his windup is a big contributor to his lack of consistent command, so it’s possible that coaching him into a more sound delivery could alleviate his two biggest problems.


2011 Statistics and Analysis

8-2, 68.1 IP, 17 ER, 123 K, 2.24 ERA, 16.20 K/9

While he didn’t pitch in affiliated ball as a deadline signee, the statistics from Norris’ senior year at Science Hill High School were available, so we actually have something to look at in this section. His entire collection of statistics couldn’t be found, so we’re missing some useful barometers like hits allowed, walks, and WHIP, but the above numbers do paint a rather attractive picture of the kind of pitcher Daniel Norris is. Striking out one batter per inning (or a 9.00 K/9) is very impressive. Norris nearly doubled that, and while high school numbers are typically extreme, 16.20 K/9 is something you only see when you play single player in MLB: The Show and set your opponents contact rate to 0. We’re also not talking about a second or third tier baseball state, as Norris played in Tennessee, one of the baseball hotbeds in the United States. It’s quickly obvious why Norris was rated by Baseball America as the number one left handed high school pitcher in his draft class, and why Blue Jays fans are very excited about the system’s number one pitching prospect.

Expected 2012 Assignment: Low-A Vancouver

Future Outlook

Norris has shown an eagerness to get on the field, but Toronto might try and curb some of that enthusiasm to protect their asset. After throwing 68 innings in his senior year, Norris should be more than capable of a full season assignment. It would be fascinating for Blue Jays fans, as if that were the case, Norris would join fellow top-10 prospects Noah Syndergaard, Justin Nicolino, and Aaron Sanchez in the Single-A Lansing rotation. Should Toronto choose to take a more cautious approach, he’d be assigned to Low-A Vancouver in the Northwest League. Under that circumstance, Norris wouldn’t see full season ball and start compiling 100+ inning seasons until 2013. As a high school arm who has yet to throw a professional pitch, projecting his major league debut is silly and a bit ridiculous, as he could feasibly debut anytime between 2014 and 2016, depending upon health, development, and minor league success. To take the cowards way out, I’ll split the difference and suggest 2015.

Perfect World Projection: Top of the rotation starter, future All Star.