2012 Top Prospects #1: Travis d'Arnaud

Name: Travis d’Arnaud
Position: Catcher
Acquired: 1st round (2007), from Philadelphia
Opening Day age: 23
Height/weight: 6’2”/195 lbs
Best/worst tool: Bat/speed
Risk factor: Low
ETA: 2012

Scouting Report

Recently ranked by Keith Law as the number 6 prospect in all of baseball, Travis d’Arnaud has all the tools required to be one of the better catchers in the game. His game starts on offense, where both his bat and power tools project to be plus. His power is generated through quick hands, exceptional bat speed, and a compact swing. The potential is there for further growth in that department, however, as d’Arnaud swings primarily with his upper half, failing to fully utilize his leg strength. He isn’t afraid to use all fields, which is an approach he began to utilize only recently after previously attempting to pull everything over the fence. Plate discipline still remains a bit of an issue. d’Arnaud made big strides defensively in 2011 while working with former big league catcher and current Fisher Cats manager Sal Fasano. His arm strength is another potential plus tool, but inconsistent footwork has limited the accuracy of this throws to second. Even so, Eastern League managers named him the league’s best defensive catcher in 2011. Another big improvement to his game was his leadership and receiving skills, with d’Arnaud has showing an ability to keep his pitchers calm and comfortable even in less than ideal situations. His worst tool is his speed, which is less than surprising for a catcher. Even so, he’s athletic for the position, and shouldn’t clog the bases until he begins to age and slow down further. More than anything else, health has been holding d’Arnaud back from unlocking his potential. He’s shown a tendency towards back injuries, which can be a big problem for someone whose job is to squat for three hours every day. The Blue Jays will have to hope that continued strength and conditioning of his core will prevent any future soreness.

2011 Statistics and Analysis

424 AB, .311/.371/.542 (.914 OPS), 33 2B, 1 3B, 21 HR, 78 RBI, 4 SB, 33/100 BB/K

d’Arnaud had an utterly dominant 2011 season with Double-A New Hampshire, culminating with the EL Most Valuable Player award as well as the Eastern League Championship. His 231 ISO is outstanding for any player, let alone a catcher, and was fuelled by his exceptional extra base hit percentage of 41.7%. It was truly a breakout year for d’Arnaud offensively, as his 21 home runs bested his previous career high by 8 (13 in 2009) in 58 fewer at-bats. The season wasn’t without flaws, however, as d’Arnaud’s 21.5% strikeout rate was higher than you’d like to see from a 22 year old top prospect in Double-A, especially given his very average 7.1% walk rate. His defense skills still need some refinement as well, as he caught only 27% of potential base stealers and allowed 13 passed balls.

Expected 2012 Assignment: Triple-A Las Vegas

Future Outlook

The Toronto Blue Jays catching position will be one to watch over the next few years. d’Arnaud is the Blue Jays top prospect and has been rated in the top 10 in all of baseball by some establishments, but there’s not necessarily a clear path to the proverbial throne. J.P. Arencibia – a former top prospect in his own right – is currently the main man squatting behind the plate, and by all accounts is very well received by the pitching staff. Despite the 23 home runs, his 2011 performance wasn’t the most spectacular, but one must remember he was a rookie playing the most difficult position in baseball. Another mediocre season could force the organization to hand the reins to a rookie catcher for the second time in three years. On the other hand, if Arencibia goes off and establishes himself as a 2-3+ WAR player, the organization will have a monumental decision on their hands. Both players have vast amounts of value behind the plate, so a defensive switch would not be maximizing assets. Given his leadership in the clubhouse and his relationship with the pitchers, I believe in such a scenario would result in d’Arnaud changing uniforms, not Arencibia. “Too much quality catching” is a problem no team would ever complain about, and it will be very interesting to see how things play out in Toronto. We won’t have to wait long, as d’Arnaud could make his debut as early as this summer.

Perfect World Projection: All Star catcher, middle of the lineup hitter, Silver Slugger award winner.

2012 Top Prospects #2: Jake Marisnick

Name: Jake Marisnick
Position: Centerfield
Acquired: 3rd round (2009)
Opening Day age: 21
Height/weight: 6’4”/200 lbs
Best/worst tool: Speed/power
Risk factor: Medium
ETA: 2013

Scouting Report

The best/worst tool category is almost a joke with Marisnick, as he has all the tools and they’re all varying degrees of awesome. This wasn’t always the case, however, as only a year ago there were some serious questions about whether Marisnick’s offensive abilities could handle elite professional pitching. Many of those questions were answered in 2011, as he displayed a marked improvement at the plate. His stance is very wide, with his back foot at the back of the box (like most hitters) and his front foot actually in front of home plate. His hands are very high, but he gets them through the zone quickly to generate excellent bat speed. His patience at the plate has improved, though he still has some work to do in that regard. Marisnick is predominantly a fastball hitter, but should improve against breaking balls as he gets exposed to them in the higher levels. He has at least above average potential with the bat, possibly even plus, as he could be a .290-.300 hitter. His power is perhaps his worst tool, but it should still be above average down the road. He has more line drive power than true home run power, as he may never be more than a 20-25 home run guy, though the doubles and triples will make up for that. Despite his size (6’4”, 200 lbs), Marisnick is an exceptional athlete. He’s a good base runner with plus speed, though the stolen base numbers could decline as he ages. His athleticism aids him in the outfield, where he’s an above average defender with both great reads and great range. His arm could be considered a plus tool in center field. Given his size it’s possible he’ll eventually be move to right field, a process that may be accelerated if and when he joins Anthony Gose in Toronto’s outfield.

2011 Statistics and Analysis

462 AB, .320/.392/.496 (.888 OPS), 27 2B, 6 3B, 14 HR, 77 RBI, 37 SB, 43/91 BB/K

Some call it repeating a level, but given that Marisnick played in only 34 Midwest League games in 2010, that’s a difficult argument to justify. He put the tools together and had one of the most consistently dominant minor league seasons I’ve ever had the pleasure of following. In the five month regular season, Marisnick had a .900+ OPS in three months (April, July, August), an .800-.899 OPS in one month (June), and a .700-.799 OPS in one month (May). That’s remarkable consistency, proving that not only were his improvements very real, but he was able to adapt as pitchers made adjustments when facing him. The improved bat skills were the most notable, as Marisnick ranked 2nd in the league in BA, 4th in OBP, 8th in SLG, and 4th in OPS. Marisnick’s combination of power and speed generated plenty of counting stats (47 XBH, 37 SB), and should continue to do so moving forward.

Expected 2012 Assignment: High-A Dunedin

Future Outlook

Without a doubt, Marisnick was more than ready to play in the Florida State League last summer, but was held back for reasons unbeknownst to me. The most likely explanation may be that the Lugnuts were a strong team making a playoff push (they went on to lose in the Midwest League Championship), and the front office wanted their top prospect to learn how to play and succeed under pressure. Regardless, Marisnick’s Dunedin debut has been delayed until this April, where he’ll once again unite with Marcus Knecht and Michael Crouse to form a talented and dynamic outfield. The stay in Dunedin shouldn’t be nearly as long as the Lansing stop, as Marisnick has impressed in Spring Training and appears to be further along than most expected. He should finish this season with Double-A New Hampshire, and after starting there again in 2013, Marisnick could have a tri-level year (Double-A, Triple-A, MLB), making his debut as a September callup. With a player as talented as Marisnick it’s hard to ever consider him blocked, but with Colby Rasmus, Anthony Gose, and Jose Bautista ahead of him on the depth chart, he may need a couple of trades and a Bautista defensive switch to first base to claim a starting outfield job in the spring of 2014.

Perfect World Projection: All Star Centerfielder, Gold Glove contender.

2012 Top Prospects #3: Anthony Gose

Name: Anthony Gose
Position: Centerfield
Acquired: 2nd round (2008), from Houston via Philadelphia
Opening Day age: 21
Height/weight: 6’1”/190 lbs
Best/worst tool: Arm/Bat
Risk factor: Medium
ETA: 2013

Scouting Report

Blue Jays General Manager Alex Anthopolous originally targeted Gose in the Roy Halladay trade talks with the Phillies, before eventually settling with Michael Taylor. Seven months and two prospects swaps later, Anthopolous finally had his man. After his first full season in the Blue Jays organization, it’s clear why the GM had his eyes on Gose – he’s got more tools than Mike Holmes’ workshop. In addition to playing outfield, Gose pitched in high school, clocking as high as 95 mph off the mound. That arm plays as a true 80 tool in center field, evident by his 13, 16, and 14 outfield assists over the last three seasons. His arm isn’t his only 80 tool, as Gose is likely a future Gold Glover in center field. His reads off the bat have improved significantly over the past few years, and when combined with his speed, he has exceptional range in center field. Like Brett Lawrie in Toronto, Gose gives 100% on every play, which some might consider a bit reckless. It’s especially dangerous when considering the situations his plus-plus speed might put him in, but that’s the way Gose plays, and no one is going to change him. While he’s exceptionally fast, his base running abilities haven’t always been as sharp, with him often running into outs. That’s something he’s put in effort into improving, however, and with an 82% success rate stealing bases in 2011, the works appears to be paying off. His power has made huge strides, as he’s transformed it from a below average tool to above average, with the potential for 15-20 home runs and a plethora of other extra base hits. The only aspect of his game that is lacking is his bat skills, where he’s below average. He has lightning fast hands and repeats his swing with a smooth weight transfer. He has a bit of a bat wiggle, but his stance is otherwise quiet with a wide base. Gose’s eye at the plate is good enough for him to consistently get deep into counts, but he lacks a sound two-strike approach which leads to plenty of strikeouts. His front side will occasionally fly open, exposing the outer half of the plate and making him susceptible to breaking balls.

2011 Statistics and Analysis

509 AB, .253/.349/.415 (.763 OPS), 20 2B, 7 3B, 16 HR, 59 RBI, 70 SB, 62/154 BB/K

While the batting average and strikeout rate (26.2%) are disappointing, Gose did improve a number of aspects of his game in 2011. The most notable difference was his power. His 162 ISO was a huge improvement on his 131 and 094 marks in 2010 and 2009 respectively, as was his 33.3 XBH%. While his strikeout rate did spike, his walk rate (10.6%) also rose with this power increase, a sign that he’s maturing as a hitter. Caught stealing became a bit of a problem in 2010 after Gose was successful in only 58% of his attempted stolen bases, but he turned that from a liability into a strength, succeeding in 82% of his attempts last season. Despite his speed, bunting hasn’t been a big part of Gose’s professional game. It’s possible that his coaches might push that on him a little more next season to boost his numbers, as only 20 bunt single attempts could raise his batting average significantly.

Expected 2012 Assignment: Triple-A Las Vegas

Future Outlook

Despite only turning 21 last August, Gose will be assigned to Triple-A in what will be his fourth year in full season ball. Since being drafted by Philadelphia and being assigned to the Single-A Sally League as an 18 year old, Gose has always been young for the level he’s played at. While this is perhaps a detriment to his overall numbers, it’s a developmental approach that will keep him challenged and better prepare him for facing major league caliber pitching. With Las Vegas and the Pacific Coast League on the immediate horizon, Gose could put up some pretty ridiculous numbers in 2012. While it will be easy to get excited about the possible .300 average and 20+ home runs he’s likely going to hit, statistics like walk rate, strikeout rate, and BABIP will be the true indicators of whether or not Gose is actually learning something. His defense and athleticism will get him to Toronto in 2013, but his bat will determine if it’s as a regular or as a part timer.

Perfect World Projection: Everyday CF who hits at the top of the lineup, regular Gold Glove winner.


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I have recently been hired as a Staff Writer over at Jays Journal, and therefore will be taking a hiatus from posting on Hypocritical Sports Fan after the conclusion of the Top 30 prospect series. I would like to thank you, my readers, as you are the reason why my writing was noticed by the guys at Jays Journal, and have allowed me to write for a much larger audience. I hope you will continue to follow my work over there, as I will continue to bring the same insight and analysis I have at HSF over the past year.

My first piece for the Journal was a look at Kyle Drabek, I hope you read and enjoy.