2012 Top Prospects #3: Anthony Gose

Name: Anthony Gose
Position: Centerfield
Acquired: 2nd round (2008), from Houston via Philadelphia
Opening Day age: 21
Height/weight: 6’1”/190 lbs
Best/worst tool: Arm/Bat
Risk factor: Medium
ETA: 2013

Scouting Report

Blue Jays General Manager Alex Anthopolous originally targeted Gose in the Roy Halladay trade talks with the Phillies, before eventually settling with Michael Taylor. Seven months and two prospects swaps later, Anthopolous finally had his man. After his first full season in the Blue Jays organization, it’s clear why the GM had his eyes on Gose – he’s got more tools than Mike Holmes’ workshop. In addition to playing outfield, Gose pitched in high school, clocking as high as 95 mph off the mound. That arm plays as a true 80 tool in center field, evident by his 13, 16, and 14 outfield assists over the last three seasons. His arm isn’t his only 80 tool, as Gose is likely a future Gold Glover in center field. His reads off the bat have improved significantly over the past few years, and when combined with his speed, he has exceptional range in center field. Like Brett Lawrie in Toronto, Gose gives 100% on every play, which some might consider a bit reckless. It’s especially dangerous when considering the situations his plus-plus speed might put him in, but that’s the way Gose plays, and no one is going to change him. While he’s exceptionally fast, his base running abilities haven’t always been as sharp, with him often running into outs. That’s something he’s put in effort into improving, however, and with an 82% success rate stealing bases in 2011, the works appears to be paying off. His power has made huge strides, as he’s transformed it from a below average tool to above average, with the potential for 15-20 home runs and a plethora of other extra base hits. The only aspect of his game that is lacking is his bat skills, where he’s below average. He has lightning fast hands and repeats his swing with a smooth weight transfer. He has a bit of a bat wiggle, but his stance is otherwise quiet with a wide base. Gose’s eye at the plate is good enough for him to consistently get deep into counts, but he lacks a sound two-strike approach which leads to plenty of strikeouts. His front side will occasionally fly open, exposing the outer half of the plate and making him susceptible to breaking balls.

2011 Statistics and Analysis

509 AB, .253/.349/.415 (.763 OPS), 20 2B, 7 3B, 16 HR, 59 RBI, 70 SB, 62/154 BB/K

While the batting average and strikeout rate (26.2%) are disappointing, Gose did improve a number of aspects of his game in 2011. The most notable difference was his power. His 162 ISO was a huge improvement on his 131 and 094 marks in 2010 and 2009 respectively, as was his 33.3 XBH%. While his strikeout rate did spike, his walk rate (10.6%) also rose with this power increase, a sign that he’s maturing as a hitter. Caught stealing became a bit of a problem in 2010 after Gose was successful in only 58% of his attempted stolen bases, but he turned that from a liability into a strength, succeeding in 82% of his attempts last season. Despite his speed, bunting hasn’t been a big part of Gose’s professional game. It’s possible that his coaches might push that on him a little more next season to boost his numbers, as only 20 bunt single attempts could raise his batting average significantly.

Expected 2012 Assignment: Triple-A Las Vegas

Future Outlook

Despite only turning 21 last August, Gose will be assigned to Triple-A in what will be his fourth year in full season ball. Since being drafted by Philadelphia and being assigned to the Single-A Sally League as an 18 year old, Gose has always been young for the level he’s played at. While this is perhaps a detriment to his overall numbers, it’s a developmental approach that will keep him challenged and better prepare him for facing major league caliber pitching. With Las Vegas and the Pacific Coast League on the immediate horizon, Gose could put up some pretty ridiculous numbers in 2012. While it will be easy to get excited about the possible .300 average and 20+ home runs he’s likely going to hit, statistics like walk rate, strikeout rate, and BABIP will be the true indicators of whether or not Gose is actually learning something. His defense and athleticism will get him to Toronto in 2013, but his bat will determine if it’s as a regular or as a part timer.

Perfect World Projection: Everyday CF who hits at the top of the lineup, regular Gold Glove winner.


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I have recently been hired as a Staff Writer over at Jays Journal, and therefore will be taking a hiatus from posting on Hypocritical Sports Fan after the conclusion of the Top 30 prospect series. I would like to thank you, my readers, as you are the reason why my writing was noticed by the guys at Jays Journal, and have allowed me to write for a much larger audience. I hope you will continue to follow my work over there, as I will continue to bring the same insight and analysis I have at HSF over the past year.

My first piece for the Journal was a look at Kyle Drabek, I hope you read and enjoy.

Blue Jays Positional Primer: Center Field

Inspiration for the Blue Jays Positional Primer series comes from Jason Parks of Baseball Prospectus. Over the course of the second half of the season, Jason examined the prospects in the entire minor leagues on a position-by-position basis, giving insight into players both within and well outside the top 100 rankings.

While the sample size of one team is vastly inferior to that of the entire minor leagues, I feel Toronto has enough depth in the farm -- particularly in the low minors -- that such a series could provide some insight into prospects that Blue Jays fans aren't as familiar with as they should be. This is the fifth installment of an eight part series that will examine catcher, first base, middle infield, third base, center field, corner outfield, right handed pitcher, and left handed pitcher. The middle infield and corner outfield lists are included as there's really no such thing as a second base or left field prospect, they're just shortstops and center/right fielders who couldn't handle the defensive demands and get moved to the easier defensive position as they age. It should be noted that -- outside of the Leader of the Pack, who is the #1 for the position -- these are not necessarily progressive rankings of the prospects.

Part I -- Blue Jays Positional Primer: Catcher
Part II -- Blue Jays Positional Primer: First Base
Part III -- Blue Jays Positional Primer: Middle Infield
Part IV -- Blue Jays Positional Primer: Third Base
Part VI -- Blue Jays Positional Primer: Corner Outfield
Part VII -- Blue Jays Positional Primer: Right-handed Pitcher
Part VIII -- Blue Jays Positional Primer: Left-handed Pitcher

Leader of the Pack

Jake Marisnick -– 2011 team: Single-A Lansing
462 AB, .320/.392/.496 (.888 OPS), 27 2B, 6 3B, 14 HR, 77 RBI, 37 SB, 43/91 BB/K

A year ago, I ranked Jake Marisnick as the 11th best prospect in Toronto’s system, 6th among positional players. Things have changed drastically since last spring. Marisnick was a 3rd round pick in a very memorable 2009 draft for the Blue Jays. Despite being the fifth highest player Toronto drafted, he was the second highest to sign, behind only 1st round pick Chad Jenkins. The three pitchers drafted between the two all went unsigned. Marisnick agreed to terms on the day of the signing deadline, receiving a well over-slot bonus of 1.0M. In an otherwise rather uninspiring haul for the Blue Jays, Marisnick was a gem.

With such a late agreement, Marisnick wasn’t able to suit up for Toronto until the 2010 season, where he debuted with the Gulf Coast Blue Jays. The placement lacked aggression, and Marisnick cleaned up the league full of pitchers below his talent and development level, hitting .287/.373/.459 (.832) with 15 extra base hits and 14 stolen bases in 35 games. The front office took the hint and promoted him – but perhaps too far. Marisnick skipped two levels – Rookie and Low-A – instead moving straight into Single-A with the Lansing Lugnuts. He struggled to make adjustments, hitting .220/.298/.339 (.636) in 34 games, compiling a disappointing 9/37 walk to strikeout ratio.

Marisnick possesses a tool-set that scouts drool over, and used those tools to put together one of the most impressive all-around seasons of any position player in the low minors. He showcased his power (47 extra base hits), bat (.320 batting average), plate discipline (43 walks), and speed (37 stolen bases) while playing impressive defense in centerfield despite his large frame – 6’4”, 200 lbs. He may eventually be forced to right field, as at only 20 years old he could continue to grow and his arm would more than suffice, but such a transition would likely occur as he approaches the major leagues. Marisnick should open next season with the Dunedin Blue Jays, but could easily play himself into Double-A by midseason. Players who can both hit and play effective center field are few and far between, and Marisnick is one of the best in the minor leagues.

The Question Mark

Anthony Gose -– 2011 team: Double-A New Hampshire
509 AB, .253/.349/.415 (.763 OPS), 20 2B, 7 3B, 16 HR, 59 RBI, 70 SB, 62/154 BB/K

I’ve been torn back and forth between Marisnick and Anthony Gose over who is the better prospect, but the alarming number of questions about Gose’s bat forces him down. Gose was drafted by the Philadelphia Phillies in the 2nd round of the 2008 draft, and played parts of three seasons for them before being swapped to Toronto, via Houston, in the Roy Oswalt trade two summers ago. It was later revealed that Alex Anthopolous attempted to acquired Gose as part of the Roy Halladay trade, but at the time Philadelphia was uninterested in moving him – though Travis d’Arnaud turned into a pretty good third piece anyways.

Anthony Gose is a very rare player in that he has arguably three 80 level tools. His arm is an 80 in center field, as he was both a pitcher and fielder in high school and touched 95 mph off the mound. His speed is an 80 as well, which is evident by his 70 stolen bases in 2011 and his career-best 76 stolen bases in 2009. His glove is his third best tool, and even on his bad days he still looks like a 70 caliber talent in center. The tools that have always held Gose back from top prospect status were his power and his bat. His power has made huge strides over the last few seasons, as he went from 35 (24/9/2) extra base hits in 2009 to 40 (20/13/7) in 2010 to 43 (20/7/16) in 2011. His bat, on the other hand, has shown minimal improvement. Despite an improving his walk rate (35 BB in 2009, 45 BB in 2010, 62 BB in 2011), his batting average has remained consistently low (.250-.260 range), while his strikeout rate has actually worsened (110 K in 2009, 132 K in 2010, 154 K in 2011). While his power has improved from a 30 tool at the time of his draft to a 50 tool at present, his bat tool hasn’t budged from a mediocre 40.

The biggest advantage he has on his side is age. Gose just finished a full season at Double-A, and only turned 21 years old in August. He’s roughly two years younger than his peers, and even if he repeats the Double-A or Triple-A level, he could still be in the majors before his 23rd birthday. From Toronto’s perspective, they have no reason to rush Gose and force him to the majors before he’s ready due to the presence of former top prospect Colby Rasmus in the Rogers Center outfield. As I mentioned, it’s possible Gose could find himself back in Double-A next season, but it’s far more likely he’ll get the pleasure of hitting in the launching pad that is Las Vegas. While the power and batting numbers are sure to increase simply due to the environment, one thing to keep an eye on is strikeouts, as they may be the best indicator as to whether or not he’s figuring it out. His work ethic certainly can’t be questioned, however, as after playing 145 games (including playoffs) in Double-A and 29 games in the Arizona Fall League, he’s continuing to work in the Venezuelan Winter League.

Remember the Name(s)

Jacob Anderson –- 2011 team: Gulf Coast Blue Jays
37 AB, .405/.476/.622 (1.098 OPS), 2 2B, 0 3B, 2 HR, 7 RBI, 2 SB, 4/8 BB/K

The first of two 2011 draftees in the Remember the Name section, Jacob Anderson was the highest drafted player to sign with Toronto after Tyler Beede chose college over professional baseball, receiving a slightly-above slot bonus of 0.99M. Anderson played a lot of first base in high school, but that was due to a situation where the team had too many outfielders and too few infielders, and his bat was capable of playing at first base. Due to his size (6'4", 190 lbs) he best profiles as a corner outfielder long-term, but for the time being it appears Toronto will give him a chance to play center and deal with moving him at a later date.

The now 19 year old Anderson only got into 9 games with the Gulf Coast Blue Jays in August, but showed off the tools that made him a supplemental-first round pick. Anderson's best tool is his power, as he was rated as one of the best power hitters of his draft class. He has quick hips, a ton of bat speed, and a smooth swing, which allows him to generate power without having to rely upon an uppercut. A true plus tool. Uppercuts can often hinder the development of the bat tool, but Anderson should be able to avoid such a fate. He sets himself quickly and his timing mechanism (a toe tap with his front foot) is very simple, which should keep him consistent at the plate. Anderson has plus athleticism (9 triples, 24 stolen bases in his final high school season), which is a dimension of his game that was wasted at first base. He shows some hesitancy when the ball is coming towards him both in the infield and outfield, possibly limiting his defensive ceiling unless he can get past this quirk. His arm strength is average while his accuracy is a tick above average, so if he moves to a corner, he might be better suited to left than right. A great video of Jacob Anderson can be found here, via the awesome guys over at Jays Journal.

After such a strong offensive showing in his short season debut, it's possible Anderson could be challenged with a Single-A Lansing assignment out of the spring, as it would be a similar path to what top prospect Jake Marisnick has followed. The Lugnuts should have a number of openings in the outfield, as Marisnick, Knecht, and Crouse should all be promoted to Dunedin to open 2012. If not, Anderson will likely split the season between two teams, spending 30 or so games with a short season team (Vancouver most likely) before finishing the season with the aformentioned Lugnuts. Despite playing in only 9 professional games, Anderson should rank highly on my top prospect list.

Dwight Smith Jr –- N/A

The second 2011 draftee in the Remember the Name category is Dwight Smith Jr, another compensation round pick. Smith received a signing bonus of 0.8M which, like Anderson, was slightly above slot. Like Dickie Thon Jr, Smith Jr is the son of a former big leaguer of the same name. DNA and bloodlines are quickly becoming another important aspect of amateur scouting, although Junior plays the game a bit differently than his father. He recently turned 19 but has yet to play a professional game, which speaks to the problems the previous signing deadline had (it's been fixed, but the other draft changes the new CBA brought is a whole other story).

Smith's bat is easily his best tool, and is what made him a supplemental-first round pick. He has a very advanced approach at the plate, showing an ability to square up pitches regardless of the quadrant of the strikezone they're thrown in. Smith has a lot of action in his swing, as he wiggles the bat in his hands in addition to a huge front leg kick as a timing mechanism. The plane of his swing covers much of the plate, allowing him to fight off borderline pitches until he sees one to his liking. A large aspect of Smith's success is his plate vision and maturity. He can recognize pitches quickly and is an intelligent hitter, taking a walk when a pitcher refuses to throw over the plate. Smith grew up around baseball, and it's evident with the way he plays. His power is a step above that of his father, and should be an average tool in the future. His athleticism, on the other hand, is a step below his dad's. He has average speed, but is an above average base runner due to his inherent ability to read pitchers. The same instincts that help him in the box and on the basepaths also help him on defense. Reaction time and reading balls are far more important in the outfield than pure speed, which allows Smith to be an above average fielder. His arm strength is mediocre, but his accuracy is outstanding and his quick release allows him to throw out more runners than he should. A video of Dwight Smith Jr can be found here, which was once again brought to my attention by the guys at Jays Journal.

As previously mentioned, Smith has yet to make his professional debut, which makes forecasting his 2012 destination rather difficult. His advanced offensive skills make Lansing or Vancouver legitimate possibilities, and anything below Low-A would have to be considered a safe yet cowardly assignment. Smith's instincts and baseball smarts allow his tools to play up, but his ceiling is more of a solid regular than a potential All-Star.

AFL Update: November 13th

Over a month into the AFL season, it's time to take a look at how Toronto's farmhands have performed down with the Phoenix Desert Dogs

CF Anthony Gose (21, 2011 team: Double-A New Hampshire)
.255/.359/.455 (.814 OPS), 5 2B, 4 3B, 3 HR, 19 RBI, 7 SB, 13/37 BB/K

Twenty-seven games into his AFL career, Anthony Gose is putting together a batting line quite reminiscent to that of his 2011 regular season (.253/.349/.415). The most significant difference is the slugging, which shouldn't come as much of a surprise given the hitter-friendly (or rather, pitching-poor) AFL environment. He's still striking out far too much (37 K's in 27 games after 154 K's in 137 Double-A games), but the power is really coming together. A year ago, Anthony Gose posting a .200 ISO would seem like a laughable proposal -- but he's done exactly that with the Desert Dogs.

SS Adeiny Hechavarria (22, 2011 team: Double-A New Hampshire)
.250/.308/.444 (.752 OPS), 3 2B, 4 3B, 1 HR, 8 RBI, 1 SB, 6/17 BB/K

As mentioned a few days ago, Adeiny Hechavarria is having a decent AFL season thus far, but it's not enough to shake my fear that he might never become an average offensive shortstop. There's decent power potential here, and more importantly he's showing some improved plate discipline. Adeiny's biggest issue is making consistent, solid contact, a problem he's clearly struggling with in the AFL as well.

3B Kevin Ahrens (22, 2011 team: High-A Dunedin)
.259/.330/.395 (.725 OPS), 8 2B, 0 3B, 1 HR, 12 RBI, 1 SB, 9/22 BB/K

Like Anthony Gose, Kevin Ahrens is hitting at nearly an identical clip to that of his regular season (.725 OPS with Phoenix, .723 OPS with Dunedin). In Ahrens' case, this is quite promising. Ahrens spent the entire season in High-A, and with the Desert Dogs, he is facing veteran pitchers who hail from as high up as Triple-A. Over the last few seasons he has shown consistently improving power and plate discipline, but his bat skills have failed to show any significant improvement. Hopefully the AFL experience will better prepare him for a Double-A assignment next season.

C Yan Gomes (24, 2011 team: Double-A New Hampshire)
.229/.351/.271 (.622 OPS), 2 2B, 0 3B, 0 HR, 3 RBI, 0 SB, 7/15 BB/K

Yan Gomes has decent power and receiving tools, but he has never shown enough to be considered a true prospect, particularly in a catching-rich system like Toronto's (Arencibia, d'Arnaud, Jimenez, Perez, etc). The Desert Dogs have used a revolving door at catcher, with Gomes splitting time with Roberto Perez (CLE) and Ryan Ortiz (OAK). As such, he's seen only 48 at-bats.

RHP Chad Beck (26, 2011 teams: Double-A New Hampshire, Triple-A Las Vegas)
8 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 0 HR, 1 BB, 5 K, 0.00 ERA, 0.38 WHIP, 0.73 GO/AO

Chad Beck started the AFL season with Phoenix, but has since been shut down, likely due to a Toronto-enforced innings limit (142 MiLB IP, 2.1 MLB IP, 8 AFL IP = 152.1 IP). While he was with the Desert Dogs, however, he was absolute dynamite, allowing only 3 base runners in eight innings of work. The AFL was likely a final test for Beck as he readies himself for a bullpen role in the major leagues next year.

LHP Evan Crawford (25, 2011 team: Double-A New Hampshire)
15.2 IP, 13 H, 6 ER, 0 HR, 3 BB, 14 K, 3.45 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 2.56 GO/AO

The left handed Crawford is coming off consecutive strong seasons in the Blue Jays minor leagues, both of which have come since he made the conversion to relief pitching. He has carried over that success to the AFL, showing strong command and groundball tendencies while maintaining an outstanding strikeout rate. He's no top prospect, but he does have big league potential, perhaps as soon as next season.

RHP Wes Etheridge (27, 2011 team: High-A Dunedin)
6.2 IP, 7 H, 2 ER, 0 HR, 4 BB, 3 K, 2.70 ERA, 1.65 WHIP, 1.50 GO/AO

After setting a Dunedin saves record with 32, Wes Etheridge has struggled to continue the success he experienced in High-A with the Desert Dogs. In Dunedin, Etheridge owned the strikezone, putting together a 38/7 strikeout to walk ratio across his 47.2 innings. With Phoenix, he has already walked 4 batters in his 6.2 innings, creating an ugly WHIP despite a sharp looking ERA.

LHP Aaron Loup (23, 2011 team: High-A Dunedin)
15.1 IP, 14 H, 8 ER, 1 HR, 1 BB, 16 K, 4.70 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, 1.31 GO/AO

Almost like a mirror opposite of Etheridge, Aaron Loup has put together fantastic secondary statistics while producing a mediocre ERA. His strikezone control has been impeccable, with a 16/1 strikeout to walk ratio, and despite seemingly living in and around the strikezone, he is still allowing less than a hit per inning. The 2009 draftee isn't much of a prospect, but he is likely garnering the attention of the front office with this performance, and may earn himself an upper minors assignment.

Minor League Hitter of the Year

With the minor league seasons having reached completion, it is time to determine the Blue Jays minor league players of the year -- both hitter and pitcher. Unlike previous years, there are a wealth of candidates for these awards thanks to the overall depth of the farm system. In addition to the shear number of prospects, many of the high upside prospects had big years, causing the farm to look even better.

The candidates:

3B Brett Lawrie, Triple-A Las Vegas
300 AB, .347/.414/.647 (1.060 OPS), 24 2B, 6 3B, 18 HR, 62 RBI, 13 SB, 26/54 BB/K

Two major factors may have sabotaged Lawrie's chances to be the Blue Jays minor league hitter of the year. The first -- a hit-by-pitch suffered in a game in late May. Lawrie was having a truly insane month -- 1.170 OPS, 11 doubles, 3 triples, 11 home runs, and 14 walks. Reports were being leaked and discussed that a major league promotion was on the horizon for Lawrie, but the bruised hand was discovered to be a broken hand which resulted in 6 weeks on the minor league disabled list. Lawrie made his return in mid-July and picked up exactly where he left off, with a 1.122 OPS in the month which once again drove Blue Jays fans to demand the promotion of their much heralded top prospect. He finally received the big league call in early August, and he wouldn't play another minor league game after that. Between the aformentioned hand injury and the late season promotion, Lawrie only accumulated 300 minor league at-bats, which really cripples his chances. With 500 AB he's likely a shoe-in, but instead, he has a lot of competition.

C Travis d'Arnaud, Double-A New Hampshire
424 AB, .311/.371/.542 (.914 OPS), 33 2B, 1 3B, 21 HR, 78 RBI, 4 SB, 33/100 BB/K

The first of two Fisher Cat candidates, d'Arnaud made a monstrous leap as a prospect in 2011, finally putting some numbers behind the tools that scouts have been drooling over for years. d'Arnaud put his injury plagued debut season with Toronto behind him and helped lead New Hampshire to the Eastern League championship. Later named the Eastern League MVP, d'Arnaud put together a well rounded season that displayed his bat, power, and plate approach. Beyond the statistics, his defense received positive reviews, and assuming his back injuries are behind him he should have no difficulties staying behind the plate long term. d'Arnaud has developed himself from a mid-tier prospect in the Blue Jays system into arguably the best catcher in the minor leagues and Toronto's best prospect overall.

CF Anthony Gose, Double-A New Hampshire
509 AB, .253/.349/.415 (.763 OPS), 20 2B, 7 3B, 16 HR, 59 RBI, 70 SB, 62/154 BB/K

Progression was apparent in Gose' 2011 season, but his flaws were still very evident. The recently turned 21 year old has already played in three full seasons in the minor leagues as a former highschool pick, which speaks to the age discrepancy he has constantly fought through to post the numbers he has. The above statistics were collected while facing pitchers typically 1-4 years older than him, which does in a sense justify some of the strikeouts. Regardless, Gose made three substantial improvements to his game this year. First, after struggling to post ISO numbers over 100 through his career, Gose saw his power take a step forward, smashing 16 home runs with a 162 ISO. Second, Gose became a much more polished base stealer, improving his ratio from 58% (45/77) to 82% (70/85). Finally, he improved his walk rate for the third straight year, from 6.1% in 2009 to 8.1% in 2010 to 10.6% in 2011.

CF Jake Marisnick, Single-A Lansing
462 AB, .320/.392/.496 (.888 OPS), 27 2B, 6 3B, 14 HR, 77 RBI, 37 SB, 43/91 BB/K

Much like Travis d'Arnaud, Marisnick took the big step towards putting some numbers behind his jaw-dropping tools. The term is thrown around rather loosely, but Marisnick is a true 5-tool talent. What makes that even more impressive is that he displays these tools while playing centerfield. Marisnick's batting line looks impressive, but what is truly incredible is the consistency he displayed over his 118 games. On a month-to-month basis, Marisnick posted a .900+ OPS in three months (April, July, August), an .800+ OPS in one month (June), and a .700+ OPS in one month (May). In other words -- at best he played like an MVP, and at worst he played like a league average player -- and he played like the former far more often than the latter. Not only did Marisnick experience personal success, he led the Lansing Lugnuts to the Midwest League championship, though they failed to capture the title. Marisnick has flown up the prospect charts and has established himself as a legitimate top 5 prospect in the system, and possible top 50 in all of baseball.

The winner:

While the other three candidates all had outstanding seasons, I have to give the award to Jake Marisnick. Each of the other prospects had some factor working against them, while Marisnick was nearly flawless in his blitzkreig through the Midwest League. As an incredible athlete, the ceiling is limitless if he continues to show he can hit and hit for power. Marisnick will take his talents to Dunedin in 2012 and look to prove that this year was no fluke.

The Minor League Pitcher of the Year can be found here.

Top 15 Prospect Review: Hitters

#1: 3B Brett Lawrie

(MLB) 125 AB, .312/.386/.656 (1.042 OPS), 8 2B, 4 3B, 9 HR, 23 RBI, 6 SB, 13/25 BB/K
(AAA) 292 AB, .353/.415/.661 (1.076 OPS), 24 2B, 6 3B, 18 HR, 61 RBI, 13 SB, 26/53 BB/K

2011 Breakdown: After being acquired from the Brewers in the offseason, high expectations were placed upon Brett Lawrie. Lawrie was a true top-prospect, and as a Canadian, Blue Jays fans had hopes he could become the next Canadian superstar, like Morneau and Votto before him. Lawrie met those lofty expectations and then some, and likely would have won the AL Rookie of the Year if not for a broken hand in June that caused him to miss nearly two months. Lawrie has already moved up from 8th to 5th (on occasion) in the batting order, which suggests John Farrell will remove the kid gloves in 2012 and let the world see what Brett can do.

2012 Prospect status: N/A (graduated from prospect status)

#3: C J.P. Arencibia

(MLB) 398 AB, .219/.278/.447 (.725 OPS), 17 2B, 4 3B, 22 HR, 72 RBI, 1 SB, 31/124 BB/K

2011 Breakdown: Arencibia was called up in late 2010, but Cito Gaston's insistence on playing free agent-to-be John Buck dramatically cut down Arencibia's playing time, which left him as a huge question mark entering 2011. Arencibia started off hot, but has struggled throughout the rest of the year. His 7.1 walk percentage is a pleasant surprise, and ranks 4th among current Blue Jays regulars. Arencibia's biggest problem has been strikeouts, and while they may always been an issue with his uppercut swing, reducing his strikeout rate from its current 28.5% to around 20% would make a huge improvement in his overall batting numbers.

2012 Prospect status: N/A (graduated from prospect status)

#4: CF Anthony Gose

(AA) 509 AB, .253/.349/.415 (.763 OPS), 20 2B, 7 3B, 16 HR, 59 RBI, 70 SB, 62/154 BB/K

2011 Breakdown: Gose spent the entire 2011 season as the starting centerfielder for the prospect-rich New Hampshire Fishers Cats ball club. While strikeouts were still an issue, his 10.6% walk rate and 70/85 (82.4%) stolen base numbers give hope that he could hit near the top of a major league lineup at some point in the future. The batting numbers remained near his career averages -- subpar, but he did see an unexpected spike in his power numbers, more than doubling his previous career high in home runs. Some have attributed this to a short right field porch in his home stadium, however he hit 7 of his 16 home runs on the road. Additionally, many reports of his home park home runs have described them as bombs.

2012 Prospect status: Rising

#6: C Travis d'Arnaud

(AA) 424 AB, .311/.371/.542 (.914 OPS), 33 2B, 1 3B, 21 HR, 78 RBI, 4 SB, 33/100 BB/K

2011 Breakdown: When considering position, d'Arnaud had perhaps the best overall season by any Toronto hitting prospect in 2011. d'Arnaud had always been known as a player with all the tools to be a great catcher, but the numbers had never lived up to the hype. That all came to an end in 2011. d'Arnaud stayed healthy for nearly the entire season, and put together a batting line deserving of the Eastern League MVP award. d'Arnaud has shot up prospects list during the year, and is now arguably the top catching prospect in all of baseball (most experts are split on d'Arnaud and Devin Mesoraco of the Reds). With the graduation of Toronto's top three prospects, d'Arnaud has a legitimate chance to bear the title of Toronto's number one minor leaguer.

2012 Prospect status: Rising

#8: C Carlos Perez

(A) 383 AB, .256/.320/.355 (.675 OPS), 17 2B, 6 3B, 3 HR, 41 RBI, 6 SB, 37/74 BB/K

2011 Breakdown: Carlos Perez was a huge disappointment in 2011. He had shown all of the tools you could want from a catcher in his first three professional seasons, but that did not remain true this year. With a young player like Perez, the biggest hope is that he can translate those tools from short-season ball to full-year ball. The reason for Perez' drop-off in production is impossible to know without being around the team all year, but one can only hope it's fatigue related, not ability related. 2012 will be a huge test for Perez to re-establish himself, but at this point some of his prospect shine has worn off.

2012 Prospect status: Diminishing

#11: CF Jake Marisnick

(A) 462 AB, .320/.392/.496 (.888 OPS), 27 2B, 6 3B, 14 HR, 77 RBI, 37 SB, 43/91 BB/K

2011 Breakdown: Much like d'Arnaud, Marisnick took the huge step of translating tools into legitimate production. Marisnick has always been known as an athlete and a guy "who looks good in a uniform", but he became a baseball player in 2011. Recently named one of Kevin Goldstein's 10 most interesting prospect stories of the year, he mentions how Marisnick is one of the few players you can call a true 5-tool talent without looking like an idiot. In addition to posting an awesome batting line, Marisnick racked up the cumulative stats all year, totalling 47 extra base hits and 37 stolen bases. Perhaps the most impressive aspect of Marisnick's season was his ability to avoid slumps. In his worst month of the year, May, he still managed a respectable .713 OPS. He had an .800+ OPS in the other four full months.

2012 Prospect status: Rising

#12: SS Adeiny Hechavarria

(AAA) 108 AB, .389/.431/.537 (.968 OPS), 6 2B, 2 3B, 2 HR, 11 RBI, 1 SB, 8/21 BB/K
(AA) 464 AB, .235/.275/.347 (.622 OPS), 22 2B, 6 3B, 6 HR, 46 RBI, 19 SB, 25/78 BB/K

2011 Breakdown: A lot was expected from Hechavarria, and for the most part he failed to deliver. After hitting .273/.305/.360 in New Hampshire in 2010 after a midseason callup, it was hoped Hech could match or even exceed those numbers in his second go around with the Fisher Cats. The opposite happened. Hechavarria's batting line plummeted to .235/.275/.347 in 2011. Despite this, he was promoted to Las Vegas late in the year to work with hitting coach Chad Mottola. He did have a strong month with the 51's, but it's exactly that, a month. If Hechavarria wants to re-establish his prospect status, he'll need to show something with the bat in 2012, and string together those strong months into something tangible.

2012 Prospect status: Diminishing

#13: LF Eric Thames

(MLB) 304 AB, .263/.311/.457 (.768 OPS), 21 2B, 4 3B, 10 HR, 32 RBI, 2 SB, 18/73 BB/K
(AAA) 210 AB, .352/.423/.610 (1.033 OPS), 25 2B, 4 2B, 7 HR, 45 RBI, 5 SB, 23/41 BB/K

2011 Breakdown: Like Lawrie, Thames split the year between Las Vegas and Toronto. However, unlike Brett Lawrie, Thames has struggled at times to make the adjustment to the more talented pitching. Despite never posting a walk rate below 8.9% in his minor league career, Thames is walking in only 5.5% of his plate appearances while striking out in 22.2% of his appearances -- not a great combination. While the power Thames has displayed has been impressive (his ISO of .194 is currently 4th among the Blue Jays starters), and his 22.7% line drive rate equally so, it's hard to project Thames as anything more than a .260-.270 hitter in the major leagues. Thames stole Travis Snider's left field job in the summer, and it's likely only one of the two will make the squad out of Spring Training. It should be an interesting battle to watch.

2012 Prospect status: N/A (graduated from prospect status)

Blue Jays Prospect Hot Sheet: Aug 19-28

As I mentioned in the last edition, Hypocritical Sports Fan will be running a regular Blue Jays Prospect Hot Sheet. The list is a representation of the hottest 5 or so players in the Blue Jays farm system over a 10 day period, with the player pool consisting of my personal Top 40 prospect list.

This edition will be for the games spanning from (and including) August 19th to August 28th.

1. CF Jacob Anderson, GCL Blue Jays
.500/.551/.692 (1.243 OPS), 2 2B, 1 HR, 4 RBI, 1 SB, 3/4 BB/K

Anderson, the first positional player drafted by Toronto this past June, has seen his professional career get off to a scorching start. As a late signee, Anderson has only played 9 games in the Gulf Coast League so far this year, but is already showing he could be ready for a Bluefield or Vancouver assignment to begin next year. The above stat line was accumulated in only 7 games (6 of which were multi-hit efforts), which makes Anderson taking the #1 spot even more impressive. Jacob Anderson is a big guy at 6'4", and given his age (he won't turn 19 until late November) it's likely he will move to a corner outfield position down the road as he continues to mature physically. Anderson even played some first base for his highschool team because of his size and the fact they were so rich in atheltic outfielders. Regardless, Toronto will likely give him every opportunity to prove he can stay in centerfield as his value is much higher there.

2. RHP Drew Hutchison, Double-A New Hampshire
2-0, 10 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 3 BB, 13 K

Coming into the season I had ranked Hutchison as my #14 prospect in the system and thought myself rather bold in doing so. Since then, Hutch has torn the minor leagues apart, moving all the way from Single-A Lansing up to Double-A New Hampshire. Hutchison made two starts from August 19th to 28th, the first being his last with Dunedin, and the second being his debut with New Hampshire. Unsurprisingly, Hutchison met the challenge and excelled, posting two impressive pitching lines that total the above numbers. Hutch snuck into some midseason Top-50 prospect lists, and given his impressive second half numbers, I expect his name will pepper the top half of Top-100 lists this winter. Drew has established himself as one of Toronto's top-5 prospects entering 2012.

3. CF Jake Marisnick, Single-A Lansing
.378/.439/.595 (1.034 OPS), 5 2B, 1 HR, 5 RBI, 3 SB, 3/4 BB/K

Perhaps Toronto's most well rounded positional prospect, Jake Marisnick had one of those weeks. In his 9 games, Marisnick had multiple hits 6 times and atleast 1 extra base hit or stolen base 6 times. His best game during this time frame was August 26th, in which he went 3 for 4 with 2 doubles, 1 home run, and 2 runs scored. Along with the aformentioned Drew Hutchison, Marisnick has been one of Toronto's biggest stories in the minor leagues this year. Now up to a .323/.396/.500 (.896), 26 2B, 6 3B, 13 HR, 76 RBI, 35 SB, 43/84 BB/K line on the year, the 20 year old Marisnick has established himself as a blue chip prospect and should meet the 2012 challenge of Dunedin with a lot of confidence.

4. RHP Chad Jenkins, Double-A New Hampshire
0-2, 13.2 IP, 8 H, 5 ER, 0 BB, 14 K

While the 0-2 record and 3.29 ERA don't seem worthy of a hot sheet, it's Jenkins' other numbers that show how dominant he was in late August. Jenkins held hitters to a sub-.200 batting average and walked no one, good for an impressive 0.59 WHIP. After posting rather mediocre numbers through his first two Double-A months (June and July), Jenkins came on strong in August with a 3.06 ERA, 0.93 WHIP, 3.71 K/BB, and 7.24 K/9. While he lacks the upside of many of Toronto's other pitching prospects, Jenkins has gotten hot at the right time, inspiring some confidence from the front office, which should help him achieve his big league dreams at some point in 2012.

5. CF Anthony Gose, Double-A New Hampshire
.250/.386/.528 (.914 OPS), 2 2B, 1 3B, 2 HR, 5 RBI, 11 SB, 6/10 BB/K

To say that Anthony Gose has been on a base stealing tear would be an understatement. From August 19th to 28th, Gose went 11/11, bringing his cumulative August total to 17/17. What has been equally impressive has been Gose's power development, as his 5 extra base hits during this time period bring him up to 11 for the month (5 2B, 1 3B, 5 HR). His biggest problem this year, which is emphasized nicely in this sample, is strikeouts. Gose struck out 10 times during these 10 games, bringing his season total up to 143 strikeouts in 130 games. Despite hitting only .250 here, Gose made his hits count.

6. LF Christopher Hawkins, Rookie-class Bluefield
.424/.500/.545 (1.045 OPS), 4 2B, 0 HR, 8 RBI, 2 SB, 6/6 BB/K

Toronto's outfield depth shouldn't be questioned any time soon. Hawkins is the 4th outfielder to make this hot sheet, and is the first prospect to appear on consecutive lists. Hawkins made the sheet once again through consistency, as he had at least a hit in 9 of his 10 games. The only game in which he did not record a hit was a pinch hitting appearance, where he walked. Amazingly, in his 9 starts, he reached base two or more times in every game. While he hasn't shown the extra base power that his hot list counterparts have, Hawkins has found continued success this year by taking what he is given and knocking the ball around the park. If "clutch" could be measured, Hawkins' 1.140 OPS with runners on and 1.033 OPS with runners in scoring position might suggest he has a some in him.

#4: CF Anthony Gose

Name: Anthony Gose
Position: Center Fielder
Acquired: Trade with Houston in July 2010 (drafted 2nd round, 2008)
Opening Day age: 20
Height/weight: 6'1", 190 lbs
Best/worst tool: Speed/bat

Scouting Report:

Anthony Gose is an extremely toolsy outfield prospect who has a near limitless ceiling. His best tools are his fielding and speed, which are both plus-plus and will guarantee he eventually makes the majors in some regard. He also has an above average arm for a centerfielder, and his body type should keep him there long term. Gose's biggest question marks are his offensive tools, as his swing mechanics are mediocre at best right now and his power is unlikely to develop beyond 15 HR even when he matures. Gose works deep into counts, which leads to a solid walk rate but also high strikeout numbers. Both should improve with time as he gets older and more experienced. He has fast hands and good bat speed, so Gose just needs to focus on making contact and putting the ball in play.

2010 Stats: .262/.332/.393 (.724 OPS), 20 2B, 13 3B, 7 HR, 27 RBI, 45 SB, 45/132 BB/K

2010 Analysis:

Gose spent the 2010 season between two FSL teams, Clearwater and Dunedin, and held his own as a 19 year old. He hit .262, but unlike previous years it wasn't a hollow batting average. He improved his power and walk rate, but continued to strike out far too often for a top of the order hitter. Gose became far too wild on the basepaths, as his FSL leading 45 stolen bases came with 32 caught stealings.

2011 Stats: .251/.343/.392 (.735 OPS), 12 2B, 5 3B, 9 HR, 39 RBI, 45 SB, 42/96 BB/K

2011 Analysis:

At 20 years old, Gose has been working as one of the youngest players in the Eastern League. He has continued to make strides with his power and walk rate and has drastically improved his stolen base percentage. During May, Gose displayed what his ceiling may be, as he finished the month with a .296/.417/.472 (.889 OPS) slash line to go along with 9 extra base hits, 14 SB, and a 20/25 BB/K ratio in 31 games. April, June, and July have proven more difficult, which speaks to how far Gose still has to go with his hitting and consistency before he can make the majors.

Future outlook:

One thing to keep in mind when looking over Gose's career statistics is that he has always been young for the level he is playing. He was 18 in the Sally League, 19 in the Florida State League, and 20 in the Eastern League. Additionally, the last two are known predominantly for pitching. With that being said, I am impressed he has fared as well as he had. Most 20 year olds are either in A-ball or their sophomore college season, yet Gose is holding his own in the upper minors. Gose still likely needs another two full seasons in the minors to continue his development as a hitter, with 2012 likely being a split between New Hampshire and Las Vegas, and 2013 being a "show me" year in Triple-A with the potential for a September callup. Even if he doesn't get a full time position in Toronto until 2014, he would still only be 23, which is still very young for a major leaguer.

Perfect world projection: An All Star MLB CF, if Gose can continue learning to hit he has no limit. Would bat leadoff and be a perennial Gold Glove and stolen base title winner.

Worst case scenario: 4th outfielder, if his hit and power fail to develop. His defense and speed will get him to the majors as a pinch runner and defensive replacement.

Most likely outcome: A starting MLB CF, possible All Star appearances during his prime. Multiple Gold Gloves and stolen base titles.

Wallace for Gose revisited

On July 29th 2010, Roy Oswalt was traded from the Houston Astros to the Philadelphia Phillies for minor league prospects. One of those prospects, Anthony Gose, was immediately shipped to Toronto in exchange for first baseman Brett Wallace. I, like many others, had a perplexed reaction to news of the trade. Lyle Overbay, the current starting first baseman, was in the last year of his contract, and Cito Gaston had shown no interest in playing Adam Lind at first base. In other words, we were counting on Wallace to step in to start the 2011 season, but as quickly and shockingly as we had acquired him, he was gone.

The explanation that Alex Anthopolous gave to the general public was that, while Brett Wallace will likely be a good hitter, Anthony Gose has the potential to be a great all-around baseball player. This was a viewpoint I could understand. In a division that has lineups filled with perennial All-Stars, "good" just isn't good enough, particularly when speaking of first base. Look no further than Mark Teixeira and now, Adrian Gonzalez, to understand the standards set for an AL East first baseman on a contender. Anthopolous acknowledged the risk but felt it necessary to shoot for high ceiling players and not settle for safety, and the latter might best describe the J.P. Ricciardi era.

Post trade, the 2010 season ended on a rather mediocre note for both players. Anthony Gose, after being assigned to the Blue Jays High-A affiliate in Dunedin, hit .255/.360/.426 in 94 at bats. While the 13 walks and 3 HR were nice to see, the 29 strikeouts and poor SB% (9/14 = 64%) said he still had a ways to go. For Brett Wallace, he finally reached the major leagues, and even saw regular playing time. The results were poor, however, as he posted a .222/.296/.319 slash line, with only 2 HR in 144 AB.

Entering 2011, Anthony Gose was named as the starting center fielder for Toronto's Double-A affiliate, the New Hampshire Fisher Cats, while Brett Wallace was named as the Opening Day first baseman for the Houston Astros. Clearly, both the Blue Jays and Astros organizations had lofty expectations of their players, and so far both players have performed quite admirably.

Gose has posted a slash line of .280/.366/.319 (161 AB) with 2 HR, 17 RBI, and 18 SB while playing an exceptional center field. Perhaps most promising about Gose's start is his BB/K ratio, which is currently 19/35, much improved from his previous few seasons. The biggest concern I have with Gose so far is his sub .100 ISO, which is the difference between his slugging percentage and batting average, and is used to measure extra base power. Gose has only hit 4 doubles, 3 triples, and 2 home runs. At 6'1" and 190 lbs, I want to see more. I can live with the low home run totals, but with his wheels he needs to have some solid double and triple totals.

Brett Wallace has hit .318/.391/.459 (148 AB) with 12 doubles, 3 HR, and 15 RBI. Similar to Anthony Gose, Wallace is posting a much better BB/K ratio this year at 17/32, a dramatic improvement over his combined 35/133 between Triple-A and the majors last season. His poor plate discipline was one of the main reasons I, and many other Blue Jays fans, were ok with the trade, so his performance has been a little bittersweet.

I got my first look at Brett Wallace this weekend as Houston made a trip to Toronto for an interleague series. After sitting for the 1st game against the left handed Reyes, Wallace started both the 2nd and 3rd games of the series. I was impressed with his performance, and not just because he managed to smack our pitching staff around. He does have a very nice, smooth swing, and whatever alteration he made to his approach during the offseason to improve his plate discipline was nice, as he showed a lot of patience on some tough pitches. My biggest concern was when I saw Brett Wallace field and run the bases. Wow. I couldn't stop thinking to myself how huge the guy's lower half is, and he's only 24. Wallace clearly needs to make changes in his lifestyle if he wants to have a long baseball career. Secondly, I'm not sure how high of a power ceiling Wallace has. He looks like he could be a consistent .300 hitter, but he seems to have more of a slap approach at the plate, as opposed to the uppercut swing you often see in 30+ HR hitting players. I heard the term "white Ichiro" used over the weekend and, while a mildly amusing joke about Wallace's slap single approach, is hardly accurate.

At the time of the trade, I was puzzled yet accepting, and 10 months later, the feeling is much the same. Gose has established himself in Double-A, while Wallace has established himself as a competent major league hitter. I still believe the Blue Jays will win this trade in the long run, however, as I'm not sure if Wallace will ever hit much more than 20-25 HR with mediocre defense, and numbers like those aren't particularly difficult to acquire for cheap from a veteran through free agency. Anthony Gose still has more inherent risk, but if he reaches the majors and hits, he'll could be one of the most dynamic players the Blue Jays organization has ever had.