AFL Update: November 13th

Over a month into the AFL season, it's time to take a look at how Toronto's farmhands have performed down with the Phoenix Desert Dogs

CF Anthony Gose (21, 2011 team: Double-A New Hampshire)
.255/.359/.455 (.814 OPS), 5 2B, 4 3B, 3 HR, 19 RBI, 7 SB, 13/37 BB/K

Twenty-seven games into his AFL career, Anthony Gose is putting together a batting line quite reminiscent to that of his 2011 regular season (.253/.349/.415). The most significant difference is the slugging, which shouldn't come as much of a surprise given the hitter-friendly (or rather, pitching-poor) AFL environment. He's still striking out far too much (37 K's in 27 games after 154 K's in 137 Double-A games), but the power is really coming together. A year ago, Anthony Gose posting a .200 ISO would seem like a laughable proposal -- but he's done exactly that with the Desert Dogs.

SS Adeiny Hechavarria (22, 2011 team: Double-A New Hampshire)
.250/.308/.444 (.752 OPS), 3 2B, 4 3B, 1 HR, 8 RBI, 1 SB, 6/17 BB/K

As mentioned a few days ago, Adeiny Hechavarria is having a decent AFL season thus far, but it's not enough to shake my fear that he might never become an average offensive shortstop. There's decent power potential here, and more importantly he's showing some improved plate discipline. Adeiny's biggest issue is making consistent, solid contact, a problem he's clearly struggling with in the AFL as well.

3B Kevin Ahrens (22, 2011 team: High-A Dunedin)
.259/.330/.395 (.725 OPS), 8 2B, 0 3B, 1 HR, 12 RBI, 1 SB, 9/22 BB/K

Like Anthony Gose, Kevin Ahrens is hitting at nearly an identical clip to that of his regular season (.725 OPS with Phoenix, .723 OPS with Dunedin). In Ahrens' case, this is quite promising. Ahrens spent the entire season in High-A, and with the Desert Dogs, he is facing veteran pitchers who hail from as high up as Triple-A. Over the last few seasons he has shown consistently improving power and plate discipline, but his bat skills have failed to show any significant improvement. Hopefully the AFL experience will better prepare him for a Double-A assignment next season.

C Yan Gomes (24, 2011 team: Double-A New Hampshire)
.229/.351/.271 (.622 OPS), 2 2B, 0 3B, 0 HR, 3 RBI, 0 SB, 7/15 BB/K

Yan Gomes has decent power and receiving tools, but he has never shown enough to be considered a true prospect, particularly in a catching-rich system like Toronto's (Arencibia, d'Arnaud, Jimenez, Perez, etc). The Desert Dogs have used a revolving door at catcher, with Gomes splitting time with Roberto Perez (CLE) and Ryan Ortiz (OAK). As such, he's seen only 48 at-bats.

RHP Chad Beck (26, 2011 teams: Double-A New Hampshire, Triple-A Las Vegas)
8 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 0 HR, 1 BB, 5 K, 0.00 ERA, 0.38 WHIP, 0.73 GO/AO

Chad Beck started the AFL season with Phoenix, but has since been shut down, likely due to a Toronto-enforced innings limit (142 MiLB IP, 2.1 MLB IP, 8 AFL IP = 152.1 IP). While he was with the Desert Dogs, however, he was absolute dynamite, allowing only 3 base runners in eight innings of work. The AFL was likely a final test for Beck as he readies himself for a bullpen role in the major leagues next year.

LHP Evan Crawford (25, 2011 team: Double-A New Hampshire)
15.2 IP, 13 H, 6 ER, 0 HR, 3 BB, 14 K, 3.45 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 2.56 GO/AO

The left handed Crawford is coming off consecutive strong seasons in the Blue Jays minor leagues, both of which have come since he made the conversion to relief pitching. He has carried over that success to the AFL, showing strong command and groundball tendencies while maintaining an outstanding strikeout rate. He's no top prospect, but he does have big league potential, perhaps as soon as next season.

RHP Wes Etheridge (27, 2011 team: High-A Dunedin)
6.2 IP, 7 H, 2 ER, 0 HR, 4 BB, 3 K, 2.70 ERA, 1.65 WHIP, 1.50 GO/AO

After setting a Dunedin saves record with 32, Wes Etheridge has struggled to continue the success he experienced in High-A with the Desert Dogs. In Dunedin, Etheridge owned the strikezone, putting together a 38/7 strikeout to walk ratio across his 47.2 innings. With Phoenix, he has already walked 4 batters in his 6.2 innings, creating an ugly WHIP despite a sharp looking ERA.

LHP Aaron Loup (23, 2011 team: High-A Dunedin)
15.1 IP, 14 H, 8 ER, 1 HR, 1 BB, 16 K, 4.70 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, 1.31 GO/AO

Almost like a mirror opposite of Etheridge, Aaron Loup has put together fantastic secondary statistics while producing a mediocre ERA. His strikezone control has been impeccable, with a 16/1 strikeout to walk ratio, and despite seemingly living in and around the strikezone, he is still allowing less than a hit per inning. The 2009 draftee isn't much of a prospect, but he is likely garnering the attention of the front office with this performance, and may earn himself an upper minors assignment.

Making the Grade: The Bullpen

The second segment of "Making the Grade" will be Toronto's bullpen pitchers. Due to injuries, callups, and roster moves to and from the rotation, the bullpen saw a plethora of different faces throughout the year. This list will be for pitchers who finished the season in the major league bullpen, or who made at least 10 relief appearances for the club throughout the duration of the season.

Part I Making the Grade: The Starters
Part III Making the Grade: The Infield
Part IV Making the Grade: The Outfield

RHP Frank Francisco (32)
1-4, 50.2 IP, 49 H, 20 ER, 7 HR, 18 BB, 53 K
3.55 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 2.94 K/BB, 9.41 K/9, 0.78 GO/AO

Francisco took a lot of grief during his first year in Toronto, but that has to be at least partially attributed to the success of the man he was traded for (Napoli). In terms of xFIP, Francisco performed extremely similar to how he did in his last 3 seasons with Texas, so it's hard to say he performed below expectations. Frank's biggest problem in Toronto came during the spring when he was reluctant to follow the team's throwing program, which led to an early season injury and massive struggles upon his return.

Grade: B

RHP Casey Janssen (30)
6-0, 55.2 IP, 47 H, 14 ER, 2 HR, 14 BB, 53 K
2.26 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 3.79 K/BB, 8.57 K/9, 1.38 GO/AO

Casey Janssen was easily the best Blue Jays relief pitcher from the beginning to the end of the year, which makes it even more disheartening that he was the odd man out when a pitcher needed to be sent to Triple-A to make room on the roster. Thankfully, Janssen is now out of minor league options, so a repeat will not occur next year. With Francisco and Rauch possibly on the outs, Janssen could have a huge role in the back end of the 2012 bullpen.

Grade: A

RHP Jon Rauch (33)
5-4, 52 IP, 56 H, 28 ER, 11 HR, 14 BB, 36 K
4.85 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 2.57 K/BB, 6.23 K/9, 0.66 GO/AO

When you look at John Rauch in a baseball uniform, you expect he blows hitters away without breaking a sweat. Rauch stands 6'10" tall and weighs 290 lbs, yet his fastball averaged only 89.5 mph in 2011. Not only does it show below average velocity but the fastball is flat, which is borderline incomprehensible given Rauch's height. With such long arms and a downward plane to the plate, Rauch should live at the bottom of the plate. He didn't, which resulted in an awful GO/AO ratio and a ton of home runs. His struggles were even more glaring given that he spent most of the year working in the back end of the bullpen.

Grade: D

LHP Luis Perez (26)
3-3, 65 IP, 74 H, 37 ER, 9 HR, 27 BB, 54 K
5.12 ERA, 1.55 WHIP, 2.00 K/BB, 7.48 K/9, 2.27 GO/AO

Perez' above pitching line does not justify how strong of a season he had before imploding in September. Entering September, Perez had a 3.29 ERA, 1.34 WHIP and 45 strikeouts in 54.2 innings, but two bad games in the first week of the month will tarnish what was otherwise an excellent rookie season. Perez was hugely effective against lefties for much of the year, and could find himself in a Marc Rzepczynski-esque late inning role next season.

Grade: B-

RHP Carlos Villanueva (27)
6-4, 107 IP, 103 H, 48 ER, 11 HR, 32 BB, 68 K
4.04 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 2.13 K/BB, 5.72 K/9, 0.70 GO/AO

Villanueva was easily the most versatile arm on Toronto's roster this year, and if not for a case of over-working during the summer he would have far more impressive numbers. He was dynamic as a reliever, putting together a 1.60 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, and 26 strikeouts in 20 relief appearances (33.2 IP). He was moved to the rotation in late May and pitched well for a few starts before his effectiveness clearly began to drop off. Despite the clearly looming implosion on its way, Villanueva was left in the rotation until his August 3rd start in which he allowed 8 runs in 2.2 innings. After the start, he was unsurprisingly placed on the 15 day DL with arm soreness, as I predicted in this post on July 23rd. Regardless, I place the blame for his implosion solely on the coaching staff for their short sightedness -- as a reliever, Villanueva was very effective.

Grade: B+

RHP Jesse Litsch (26)
6-3, 75 IP, 69 H, 37 ER, 10 HR, 28 BB, 66 K
4.44 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 2.36 K/BB, 7.92 K/9, 1.25 GO/AO

I have never been a fan of Jesse Litsch as a starter, but I was pleasantly surprised at what I saw from Litsch out of the bullpen late this season. In the shorter appearances Litsch was able to go for the strikeout more effectively while managing to retain his strong groundball rate. He didn't display a velocity spike while working as a reliever, but it's possible that an offseason with workouts focused more on strength than endurance could boost his four seam fastball up to the 90-92 mph range more consistently.

Grade: B

RHP Shawn Camp (35)
6-3, 66.1 IP, 79 H, 31 ER, 3 HR, 22 BB, 32 K
4.21 ERA, 1.52 WHIP, 1.45 K/BB, 4.34 K/9, 1.83 GO/AO

After a strong spring, Shawn Camp's season took a horrific twist and made me start wondering aloud whether or not he had anything left in the tank. After putting together a 2.42 ERA and 1.15 WHIP through April and May, Camp completely unravelled through the summer. His 6.75 ERA, 2.05 WHIP and 14-13 K/BB ratio from June through August -- often in crucial, late game situations -- left a sour taste in my mouth. Camper has never been a big strikeout guy, but his strikeout rate has now fallen for 5 consecutive seasons (8.10, 7.09, 6.55, 5.72, 4.34), reaching what I consider an unacceptable level. His groundball rate is still impressive so it's possible Camp could rebound next season in lower leverage situations -- perhaps as the 6th or 7th arm -- but those are normally roles reserved for converted starters or young pitchers, not veterans with over 400 career appearances under his belt.

Grade: D

RHP Joel Carreno (24)
1-0, 15.2 IP, 11 H, 2 ER, 1 HR, 4 BB, 14 K
1.15 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, 3.50 K/BB, 8.04 K/9, 1.50 GO/AO

Carreno did everything that was asked of him and more after earning a late season callup from Double-A. Originally deployed as a long-man during Dustin McGowan's starts, Carreno developed into much more in his one month in the big leagues. Using primarily a fastball-slider mix, Carreno gets plenty of strikeouts and groundballs, the two things you want from a late inning reliever. While his walk rate looks good, it's likely a small sample size issue and more walks could come as more hitters see him and learn to hold back.

Grade: A

RHP Chad Beck (26)
0-0, 2.1 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 0 HR, 0 BB, 3 K
0.00 ERA, 0.43 WHIP, 3/0 K/BB, 11.57 K/9, 1.00 GO/AO

While Chad Beck falls short of the 10 appearance minimum to make this list, I felt compelled to include him as he could spend a significant amount of time in the major league bullpen next season. In addition to having a similar build, Beck's repetoire is similar to that of Frank Francisco, as he features a mid-to-high 90's four-seam fastball and a mid 80's splitter with some late bite. Beck made only 3 appearances, but looked major league ready.

Grade: B