Making the Grade: The Bullpen

The second segment of "Making the Grade" will be Toronto's bullpen pitchers. Due to injuries, callups, and roster moves to and from the rotation, the bullpen saw a plethora of different faces throughout the year. This list will be for pitchers who finished the season in the major league bullpen, or who made at least 10 relief appearances for the club throughout the duration of the season.

Part I Making the Grade: The Starters
Part III Making the Grade: The Infield
Part IV Making the Grade: The Outfield

RHP Frank Francisco (32)
1-4, 50.2 IP, 49 H, 20 ER, 7 HR, 18 BB, 53 K
3.55 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 2.94 K/BB, 9.41 K/9, 0.78 GO/AO

Francisco took a lot of grief during his first year in Toronto, but that has to be at least partially attributed to the success of the man he was traded for (Napoli). In terms of xFIP, Francisco performed extremely similar to how he did in his last 3 seasons with Texas, so it's hard to say he performed below expectations. Frank's biggest problem in Toronto came during the spring when he was reluctant to follow the team's throwing program, which led to an early season injury and massive struggles upon his return.

Grade: B

RHP Casey Janssen (30)
6-0, 55.2 IP, 47 H, 14 ER, 2 HR, 14 BB, 53 K
2.26 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 3.79 K/BB, 8.57 K/9, 1.38 GO/AO

Casey Janssen was easily the best Blue Jays relief pitcher from the beginning to the end of the year, which makes it even more disheartening that he was the odd man out when a pitcher needed to be sent to Triple-A to make room on the roster. Thankfully, Janssen is now out of minor league options, so a repeat will not occur next year. With Francisco and Rauch possibly on the outs, Janssen could have a huge role in the back end of the 2012 bullpen.

Grade: A

RHP Jon Rauch (33)
5-4, 52 IP, 56 H, 28 ER, 11 HR, 14 BB, 36 K
4.85 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 2.57 K/BB, 6.23 K/9, 0.66 GO/AO

When you look at John Rauch in a baseball uniform, you expect he blows hitters away without breaking a sweat. Rauch stands 6'10" tall and weighs 290 lbs, yet his fastball averaged only 89.5 mph in 2011. Not only does it show below average velocity but the fastball is flat, which is borderline incomprehensible given Rauch's height. With such long arms and a downward plane to the plate, Rauch should live at the bottom of the plate. He didn't, which resulted in an awful GO/AO ratio and a ton of home runs. His struggles were even more glaring given that he spent most of the year working in the back end of the bullpen.

Grade: D

LHP Luis Perez (26)
3-3, 65 IP, 74 H, 37 ER, 9 HR, 27 BB, 54 K
5.12 ERA, 1.55 WHIP, 2.00 K/BB, 7.48 K/9, 2.27 GO/AO

Perez' above pitching line does not justify how strong of a season he had before imploding in September. Entering September, Perez had a 3.29 ERA, 1.34 WHIP and 45 strikeouts in 54.2 innings, but two bad games in the first week of the month will tarnish what was otherwise an excellent rookie season. Perez was hugely effective against lefties for much of the year, and could find himself in a Marc Rzepczynski-esque late inning role next season.

Grade: B-

RHP Carlos Villanueva (27)
6-4, 107 IP, 103 H, 48 ER, 11 HR, 32 BB, 68 K
4.04 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 2.13 K/BB, 5.72 K/9, 0.70 GO/AO

Villanueva was easily the most versatile arm on Toronto's roster this year, and if not for a case of over-working during the summer he would have far more impressive numbers. He was dynamic as a reliever, putting together a 1.60 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, and 26 strikeouts in 20 relief appearances (33.2 IP). He was moved to the rotation in late May and pitched well for a few starts before his effectiveness clearly began to drop off. Despite the clearly looming implosion on its way, Villanueva was left in the rotation until his August 3rd start in which he allowed 8 runs in 2.2 innings. After the start, he was unsurprisingly placed on the 15 day DL with arm soreness, as I predicted in this post on July 23rd. Regardless, I place the blame for his implosion solely on the coaching staff for their short sightedness -- as a reliever, Villanueva was very effective.

Grade: B+

RHP Jesse Litsch (26)
6-3, 75 IP, 69 H, 37 ER, 10 HR, 28 BB, 66 K
4.44 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 2.36 K/BB, 7.92 K/9, 1.25 GO/AO

I have never been a fan of Jesse Litsch as a starter, but I was pleasantly surprised at what I saw from Litsch out of the bullpen late this season. In the shorter appearances Litsch was able to go for the strikeout more effectively while managing to retain his strong groundball rate. He didn't display a velocity spike while working as a reliever, but it's possible that an offseason with workouts focused more on strength than endurance could boost his four seam fastball up to the 90-92 mph range more consistently.

Grade: B

RHP Shawn Camp (35)
6-3, 66.1 IP, 79 H, 31 ER, 3 HR, 22 BB, 32 K
4.21 ERA, 1.52 WHIP, 1.45 K/BB, 4.34 K/9, 1.83 GO/AO

After a strong spring, Shawn Camp's season took a horrific twist and made me start wondering aloud whether or not he had anything left in the tank. After putting together a 2.42 ERA and 1.15 WHIP through April and May, Camp completely unravelled through the summer. His 6.75 ERA, 2.05 WHIP and 14-13 K/BB ratio from June through August -- often in crucial, late game situations -- left a sour taste in my mouth. Camper has never been a big strikeout guy, but his strikeout rate has now fallen for 5 consecutive seasons (8.10, 7.09, 6.55, 5.72, 4.34), reaching what I consider an unacceptable level. His groundball rate is still impressive so it's possible Camp could rebound next season in lower leverage situations -- perhaps as the 6th or 7th arm -- but those are normally roles reserved for converted starters or young pitchers, not veterans with over 400 career appearances under his belt.

Grade: D

RHP Joel Carreno (24)
1-0, 15.2 IP, 11 H, 2 ER, 1 HR, 4 BB, 14 K
1.15 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, 3.50 K/BB, 8.04 K/9, 1.50 GO/AO

Carreno did everything that was asked of him and more after earning a late season callup from Double-A. Originally deployed as a long-man during Dustin McGowan's starts, Carreno developed into much more in his one month in the big leagues. Using primarily a fastball-slider mix, Carreno gets plenty of strikeouts and groundballs, the two things you want from a late inning reliever. While his walk rate looks good, it's likely a small sample size issue and more walks could come as more hitters see him and learn to hold back.

Grade: A

RHP Chad Beck (26)
0-0, 2.1 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 0 HR, 0 BB, 3 K
0.00 ERA, 0.43 WHIP, 3/0 K/BB, 11.57 K/9, 1.00 GO/AO

While Chad Beck falls short of the 10 appearance minimum to make this list, I felt compelled to include him as he could spend a significant amount of time in the major league bullpen next season. In addition to having a similar build, Beck's repetoire is similar to that of Frank Francisco, as he features a mid-to-high 90's four-seam fastball and a mid 80's splitter with some late bite. Beck made only 3 appearances, but looked major league ready.

Grade: B

The 2012 Blue Jays Bullpen

With the non-waiver trade deadline in the rear view mirror, we have a better grasp on what the 2012 Blue Jays pitching staff might look like. Toronto made 2 substantial trades, first acquiring Edwin Jackson from the Chicago White Sox, then subsequently shipping him to the Cardinals in exchange for Colby Rasmus (in a large package deal). To complete those transactions the Blue Jays were forced to move a substantial part of their 2011 bullpen. Jason Frasor and potential 2012 reliever Zach Stewart were sent to Chicago, while Marc Rzepczynski and Octavio Dotel were moved to St. Louis. The Blue Jays did acquire some arms in return in the Cardinals deal -- Trever Miller, Brian Tallet, and PJ Walters, but they are a step down from their predecessors and will have to compete for a bullpen job in 2012, if they're a member of the team at all.

There are a number of candidates within the Blue Jays organization to fill the seven bullpen spots in 2012, and that's without even considering the trades and free agent signings that we know Alex Anthopolous has up his sleeves. Given that those hypothetical transactions are impossible to predict in November, let alone August, for simplicity I will just examine the candidates that we have in the cabinet today.

Currently in the bullpen:

RHP Frank Francisco -- 4.0M (2011). Free agent at end of 2011 (Type B).

Francisco was expected to be Toronto's closer when he was acquired from Texas in exchange for Mike Napoli, but he has not performed as had been hoped. Despite his Type B status, it is unlikely the Blue Jays will offer him arbitration. With his poor season, it is unlikely he could fetch more on the open market than he would with an arbitration salary. Additionally, he burned Texas last season by accepting arbitration. Francisco is likely to walk.

Prediction: Gone

RHP Jon Rauch -- 3.5M (2011). 3.75M Club Option (2012). Free agent at end of 2011 (Type B).

Much like Francisco, Rauch was brought in to stabilize the back end of the bullpen, a mission he has failed. While he has struggled in save opportunities (11/16), he has still been a solid reliever and will likely see his club option picked up. His 2012 role will likely be more middle relief than late inning specialist.

Prediction: Returns, club option picked up

RHP Shawn Camp -- 2.25M (2011). Free agent at end of 2011.

Camp gave the Blue Jays three strong years from 2008 to 2010, but since late May this year he has been lit up like a Christmas tree. Camper has always been known as a rubber arm, but it's possible his age (35) and workload have finally caught up to him. Camp may return to Toronto for another year in 2012, but if so it will likely be with a paycut and a lesser role.

Prediction: Gone

LHP Trever Miller -- 2.0M (2011). Free agent at end of 2011.

The 38 year old Miller was acquired in the Rasmus deal, likely as nothing more than to balance the salaries for the rest of the season. As a lefty specialist, his 0.73 ERA vs lefties looks outstanding, but his 1.62 WHIP vs lefties suggests he has been extremely lucky. Right handers have absolutely destroyed Miller, and it's hard to keep a guy around who can only do one job and can't even do it that well. His salary almost guarantees he won't be retained for 2012.

Prediction: Gone

RHP Casey Janssen -- 1.095M (2011). Controllable through 2013.

Janssen has been an absolute stud out of the bullpen the last 2 years, and with some of the veterans moving on it is likely he will be asked to step up into a major late inning role in 2012. With his option years finally burned up, he shouldn't have to take a business flight to Las Vegas ever again.

Prediction: Returns

RHP Jesse Litsch -- 0.83M (2011). Controllable through 2014.

Litsch started the season in the rotation, but suffered an injury and was forced to the disabled list. After being cleared to resume pitching, he went on a 30 day rehab stint in the minor leagues, at the end of which the front office decided to option him to Triple-A Las Vegas. While he has served exclusively as a starter in his professional career, the Blue Jays recently recalled him to work out of the bullpen. Many people, myself included, thought it was just a temporary stay before he took the injured Carlos Villanueva's turn in the rotation, however with the promotion of heralded prospect Henderson Alvarez, it appears Litsch's relief role could be more permanent.

Prediction: Returns

LHP Luis Perez -- 0.4M (2011). Controllable through 2016.

Perez has been one of the more reliable arms in the 2011 bullpen and, much like Casey Janssen, he could be pushed into a more important role for the 2012 season. If Toronto is looking for a late inning lefty, Perez might be the guy. In 2011 vs lefties, Perez has a 3.20 ERA, 0.76 WHIP, 22/0 K/BB ratio and 15.00 GO/AO ratio while recording 57 outs. Impressive.

Prediction: Returns

Injured/disabled:

RHP Carlos Villanueva -- 1.415M (2011). Controllable through 2013.

Villanueva has been an absolute steal from the Brewers, and it's a shame he's now on the DL with arm soreness due to being overworked (I mentioned 2 weeks ago he needed to be returned to the bullpen if we wanted to avoid Brian Tallet'ing him). Hopefully the injury is nothing too serious and he will be healthy for 2012. Villanueva will need to be a key cog in a 2012 bullpen that could have a lot of inexperience.

Prediction: Returns

LHP Brian Tallet -- 0.75M (2011). Controllable through 2012.

A healthy but overworked Brian Tallet was given his walking papers after 2010, and I expect 2011 to end the same way. Much like Trever Miller, Tallet was moved to Toronto in the Rasmus trade solely to balance things off. Brian recently discovered he suffers from Polycystic Kidney Disease (PKD), a serious condition that could cause his kidneys to fail. He was diagnosed early, which should dramatically improve his chances of a recovery. I wish him a full recovery, as he always seemed like a good guy.

Prediction: Gone

RHP Dustin McGowan -- 0.45M (2011). Controllable through 2013.

While the front office has proclaimed McGowan will return as a starter due to a more regulated workload, I don't see how anyone can confidently say he is capable of throwing 200 innings in a season. Therefore I believe McGowan should be considered a darkhorse for the 2012 bullpen. Not because he lacks the arm (he still has his mid 90's heat and devastating slider), but because injuries have taken such a toll on his body. Every pitcher could be 1 pitch away from blowing out their arm, but with McGowan you almost fear the worst with every pitch. Regardless, given all that he has gone through and his refusal to walk away from his passion, it's impossible to root against Dustin.

Prediction: Activated / Called up

In the minors:

RHP PJ Walters -- 0.4M (2011). Controllable through 2016.

Walters has worked nearly exclusively as a starter in his professional career, but he does not appear to have the stuff to start in the AL East. His best chance at the big leagues may be as a reliever, but I'm not sure how well he could flourish in that role either. He should have a fair shot in Spring Training to prove himself, but if I were a betting man I'd expect him to be back in Triple-A.

Prediction: Assigned to minor leagues

RHP Joel Carreno -- MiLB salary (2011). Controllable through 2017+.

A true darkhorse for a bullpen role, Carreno features a fastball/slider combo that could translate well in relief. Carreno has been overshadowed by Toronto's wealth of bigger profile, higher upside arms, and as such his best shot at making the big leagues may be in the bullpen. He has future setup guy potential, and if the bullpen isn't addressed through free agency, he could very well have a role.

Prediction: Called up

Of the 12 candidates I mentioned, I have identified 7 as strong possibilities for the Blue Jays 2012 bullpen. It would be an inexpensive group, with only Jon Rauch making "free agent dollars". The remaining 6 -- Villanueva, Janssen, Litsch, Perez, McGowan, and Carreno -- would all be cost controlled for atleast the next 2 years. While it may seem perfect to have 7 candidates for 7 roles in the bullpen, relievers are so volatile by nature that it is unwise to enter a season with such a small reserve. Alex Anthopolous has shown a willingness to scour the market in January and February for cheap relief pitching on short term deals (typically with the potential for Type status), and it is very likely he'll do the same again this winter. Regardless, of the 7 I mentioned, I believe only Perez and Carreno would have options next year. Luis Perez has shown himself as a valuable member of the relief corps, so barring a complete meltdown it would be difficult to justify a demotion. Carreno, if he is even converted to a reliever at all, could very well be the 8th man in the bullpen if another veteran (Jason Frasor?) is brought into the fold.

The bullpen has been a bit of a black eye for Toronto this season, but many of the problems can be resolved within the organization without too much money being spent (no more BJ Ryan's, please). Many of the meltdowns have been related to Francisco, Rauch, and Camp, and with 2 of the 3 gone (and the 3rd in a non-closing role) hopefully some stability could be achieved. I am in full support of Chops McGowan getting a shot to be the closer, but if not him, there are a number of other options, particularly if Jason Frasor is brought back.

Outside of second base, the pitching rotation and starting lineup are relatively set for 2012, so the bullpen may be the area that Anthopolous chooses to tinker with over the winter months. What the 2012 staff looks like exactly we won't know until April 1st, but with some of the fat being trimmed, I expect there will be a substantial improvement.

Upcoming pitching staff changes

With Brandon Morrow and Franky Francisco set to make the trip from Dunedin up to Toronto for the upcoming series against the Yankees, a number of roster moves are in order. The Blue Jays are currently rocking an 8 man bullpen and 3 man bench. With today's demotion of Mike McCoy as a result of Encarnacion's return, the bench currently consists of Jose Molina, John McDonald, and Juan Rivera.

The 8 man bullpen / 3 man bench system is likely to remain intact until Rajai Davis returns (unless of course we get rid of Juan Rivera somehow), at which point the bullpen will be cut to 7 arms and another issue will arise. That, however, is the proverbial bridge to be crossed when we get there.

The bullpen currently consists of Rauch, Camp, Rzepczynski, Frasor, Dotel, Janssen, Villanueva, and Perez. Of these 8, Janssen, Villanueva, and Perez are the only three with minor league options remaining. Villanueva has been invaluable as a long man, so his spot is likely safe for the time being. Perez is likely the odd man out with Francisco's return, as he both has options and has the least tenure of the group. That does leave an 8 man bullpen with only one left hander however.

Morrow's return is what creates the greatest problem. It is fair to say he will either be taking the spot currently held by Jesse Litsch or Jo-Jo Reyes. Litsch has a minor league option remaining, so if he is replaced he would likely be sent to Triple-A Las Vegas. Reyes is out of options, however, so if he loses his spot in the rotation it is likely he would join the bullpen as management would be wise to avoid trying to pass him through waivers. If Reyes joins the bullpen, another bullpen arm must be sent down. This leaves the following scenarios:

1. Morrow replaces Litsch, Francisco replaces Perez, Litsch and Perez to Triple-A (leaving 1 LHP in bullpen)
2. Morrow replace Litsch, Francisco replaces Janssen, Litsch and Janssen to Triple-A (leaving 2 LHP in bullpen)
3. Morrow replaces Reyes, Francisco replaces Perez, Reyes to bullpen, Perez and Janssen to Triple-A (leaving 2 LHP in bullpen)

I find it hard to believe we would run an 8 man bullpen with only one lefty, so I find option 1 far fetched. Stuff wise, I'd rather see what Reyes can do over Litsch. Performance wise, which is likely what the front office is looking at, the two starters have both struggled, which leads me to believe options 2 and 3 are equally probably.

The one constant between options 2 and 3 is that Janssen is likely to be demoted to Triple-A, despite a relatively solid performance so far this season (though he has allowed a lot of inherited runners to score). One solace he can take, however, is that by the end of July, it's probably that atleast 1, and possibly 2 of the 3 veteran relievers we acquired this offseason (Francisco, Dotel, Rauch) will have been moved, and there will be bullpen openings to close out the year. He's also likely to be the #1 option in case of injury.