Blue Jay Prognostication: The Rotation

With Spring Training just around the corner, it’s time to look at what some of the major prognostication sources predict for Blue Jays players for the 2012 season. I gathered projections from four sources:

Bill James -– Author of “The Bill James Handbook” and one of the original sabermetricians
RotoChamp –- A fantasy baseball projection website
MLB.com –- The official fantasy baseball projections of Major League Baseball
PECOTA -– Baseball Prospectus’ weighted player projection system

In addition to those four projections, I added data from the 2011 season, as well as my personal prediction for each players statistics. With prognostication there’s no right or wrong way to do it -– trends, historical comparisons, three year averages, and league average systems are all valid. For my projections, I used a combination of statistical evidence and gut feeling, as one thing I have that the others do not is exposure. I watch 140+ games every season and immerse myself in everything Blue Jays. That has to count for something, right?

Ricky Romero



There’s no debating that 2011 was a breakout year for Ricky Romero. In his first year as the ace of the staff Romero encapsulated himself in the mantra, attacking hitters instead of nipping corners. As such, he threw a personal best 225 innings, while seeing both his walk rate and strikeout rate drop. That’s not to say Romero isn’t a strikeout pitcher anymore -– his 178 were 12th best in the AL –- he’s just pitching smarter. With runners on the corner and 1 out, it’s a lot easier to get out of the inning with a weak ground ball as opposed to two strikeouts.

With that being said, most projections seem to feel Romero is going to take a step back in 2012. His ERA is going to rise, there’s no doubt about that -– his .242 BABIP and 79.2% LOB values from last season are unsustainable. Even so, both Bill James and PECOTA went a bit overboard. The PECOTA projection of a 4.33 ERA and 1.40 WHIP is flabbergasting to anyone who actually watched a Blue Jays game last season. Assuming the strikeout and walk rates remain consistent with 2011 -– which all systems project them to –- the normalization of his BABIP and LOB% to more league average values would peg him with a low to mid 3 ERA and a WHIP in the low 1.2’s.

Brandon Morrow



For Morrow, 2011 was not the breakout season most Blue Jays fans were hoping for -– at least, not on the surface. Morrow’s ERA ballooned to 4.72, and even topped 5 in the summer months. Despite this, he did show some substantial signs of improvement. While adding 33 more innings onto his arm, Morrow maintained his league-leading strikeout rate, while cutting his walk rate from 4.06 to 3.46 – a significant improvement. The biggest problem for Morrow –- which has been well documented this offseason –- is his inability to get out of trouble once runners get aboard. His 65.5% LOB rate is well below league average, and absolutely killed his ERA.

All five prognostications, myself included, agree that Morrow should finally turn the corner in 2012. The amount in which he’ll improve, however, is up for debate. MLB.com and PECOTA have the most pessimistic projections, expecting a drop-off in strikeout rate with an increase in walk rate. I disagree, and have the most optimistic view of Morrow’s 2012 season. While I expect the strikeout rate to take a small step back as Morrow further approaches the 200 inning plateau, I feel the biggest difference this season will be improved command. Morrow has substantially improved his walk rate in each of the past three seasons, and with his newfound aggressive mentality, I expect him to attack hitters in 2012 and further cut down that walk rate.

Henderson Alvarez



Alvarez will only be 21 years old on Opening Day, yet after an impressive top-to-bottom 2011 season, there’s little doubt he is poised to make the leap to full-time MLB starter. After receiving the call in August, Alvarez displayed his power arsenal and impeccable command, dominating hitters to the tune of a 3.53 ERA and 1.13 WHIP. What was perhaps even more impressive was his stamina and reliability, as he pitched 6 or more innings in eight of his ten starts. The only flaw with his debut was the lack of strikeouts, as Alvarez’ 5.65 K/9 were subpar for a pitcher with his type of stuff.

Bill James failed to give a projection for Hendo, so in the case of Alvarez we have only four predictions to inspect. It’s readily apparent that one of the four is not like the others. PECOTA expects a complete implosion by Alvarez, pegging him for a 5.50 ERA, 1.51 WHIP, and an unfathomable 4.40 K/9. Additionally, they project a walk rate approaching 3, despite the fact Hendo’s worst walk rate at any level is 2.16. To be perfectly frank, that prediction deserves to be thrown out. The remaining three projections all agree that Alvarez’ ERA is likely to fall in the mid-3 range. RotoChamp expects him to maintain his impeccable 2011 command, walking only 19 in 150 innings while striking out a modest 95. MLB.com and I, however, feel he’ll throttle up the strikeouts at the expense of some command. Throughout his minor league career, Alvarez was typically in the mid to high 6 range for strikeouts per 9, and with his stuff, there’s no reason that shouldn’t translate to the major leagues in 2012.

Brett Cecil



After being selected by Toronto in the 1st round of the 2007 draft, Brett Cecil really appeared to come into his own in 2010. While the ERA was merely “good” at 4.22, he showed excellent command, strong groundball tendencies, and a solid strikeout rate. He even led the team in wins, with 15. Things fell apart quickly in 2011, as after an ugly start to the season he faced a demotion to Triple-A, where he would make 12 starts. Even after his return in late June he still wasn’t the same pitcher we saw in 2010. The strikeouts were still there, but the groundout to flyout ratio of 0.81 was well below the 1.21 mark from 2010 that allowed him to be so successful.

If a lack of conditioning is the reason for the drop in performance, then the problem should be easily remedied. All five prognostications –- myself included -– expect an improvement in 2012, though the degree of improvement is quite varied. MLB.com projects drastic improvements in both strikeout and walk rates, resulting in what would be a career-best ERA of 3.82. The remaining four expect Cecil to post rates consistent with his 2010 and 2011 numbers, but an improved ERA due to a more Brett Cecil-like groundball rate. Throughout his minor league career his groundout to flyout ratio was around 2, and with a focus on conditioning and fundamentals there’s no reason his ratio should be as poor as it was last season.

Dustin McGowan



The fact McGowan is even mentioned on the starting pitcher projections is incredible given what he’s gone through since 2008. A trio of major surgeries and seemingly endless rehabilitation kept McGowan out of the major leagues for over three calendar years before he finally returned late last season. The Blue Jays have been medically advised that McGowan has a better chance of remaining healthy with a consistent schedule, and Toronto appears poised to give him every opportunity to achieve that consistency as a member of the rotation in 2012.

Given the lack of any actual data for three years, it’s astounding how similar all five projections are. The range in innings, strikeouts, and walks are 15, 19, and 16 respectively, while the range in ERA is merely a third of a run. The biggest variance is hits allowed (and therefore WHIP), but given that only 3 of the lines have projections for those statistics it’s hard to make any substantial analysis. PECOTA and MLB.com estimate roughly a hit per inning, but when considering how in his last healthy season (2007) he held hitters to a .230 batting average against -– and his stuff is still there -– I find that hard to believe. Regardless, Dustin McGowan is in such a bizarre and unique situation that absolutely anything could happen.

Kyle Drabek



How the mighty have fallen. Drabek was pegged as one of the favorites for the American League Rookie of the Year in the spring of 2011, and his first start of the year –- 7 one-hit innings –- only further cemented that optimism. As the season wore on, Drabek’s control and curveball left him, followed closely by his confidence. He became a shell of his former self, and only got worse after an ill-advised demotion to the launching pad of Las Vegas. A year after being Toronto’s best pitching prospect, Drabek is now the red-headed step child to this often unforgiving fanbase.

I easily have the most optimistic projection for Drabek, and it’s because he’s simply too young and talented to give up on. A year ago, a 4.40 ERA and 1.42 would be a pessimistic view on Drabek. Today, fans would shed tears of joy if he achieved those goals. He has a power fastball, incredible curveball (which completely disappeared in his disastrous 2011 -– coincidence?), and a much improved cutter. His command is without a doubt shaky, but he has the stuff and the pedigree to be a successful major league pitcher. For now, Drabek just needs to focus on the basics that made him the heralded prospect he was and take things one step at a time. The numbers will come later. I’m not even going to discuss the negative predictions -- if you want to see someone kick a guy while he's down, look elsewhere. Blue Jays fans need to remember that every time Drabek blew a game, it hurt him far more than it hurt us. He deserves a chance at redemption.

Making the Grade: The Starters

The first segment of "Making the Grade" will be Toronto's starting pitchers. While we saw a large number of different pitchers make starts throughout the year, this list will be exclusively for pitchers who either finished the season in the starting rotation, or made more starts than relief appearances throughout the duration of the season.

Part II Making the Grade: The Bullpen
Part III Making the Grade: The Infield
Part IV Making the Grade: The Outfield

LHP Ricky Romero (26)
15-11, 225 IP, 176 H, 73 ER, 26 HR, 80 BB, 178 K
2.92 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 2.23 K/BB, 7.12 K/9, 1.79 GO/AO

For the second consecutive offseason, Toronto traded their previous years' Opening Day starter, which forced Romero directly into the spotlight as the new ace of the staff. Ricky stepped up to the challenge being laid down, posting careers bests in innings pitched, ERA, and walks per nine. Romero fully embraced the ace mantra, as he sacrificed strikeouts in an effort to go deeper into ball games (2010: 15.3 pitches per inning, 2011: 14.9 pitches per innning). In addition to throwing more 2-seam fastballs, Romero also threw harder than ever before, with his fastball averaging 92.0 mph in 2011 after averaging 90.9 mph in 2010. The only thing holding him back from an A+ grade are home runs allowed, where Romero's 26 were tied for 4th in the AL.

Grade: A

RHP Brandon Morrow (27)
11-11, 179.1 IP, 162 H, 94 ER, 21 HR, 69 BB, 203 K
4.72 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 2.94 K/BB, 10.19 K/9, 0.71 GO/AO

To say that expectation were high for Brandon Morrow entering 2011 would be a colossal understatement. After putting together a 3.69 ERA and 1.21 WHIP in the second half of 2010, it was thought Morrow was ready to take the next step into ace-dome and help Ricky Romero lead this pitching staff into the future. While Romero took the step forward, Morrow stumbled out of the starting block (5.51 ERA, 1.56 WHIP in May after making only 2 April starts) and was never able to fully recover. The three positives to come from Morrow's season were his health, the development of a cutter late in the season as well as an improvement in command (2010: 4.06 BB/9, 2011: 3.46 BB/9), which kept him from a failing grade.

Grade: C

LHP Brett Cecil (25)
4-11, 123.2 IP, 122 H, 65 ER, 22 HR, 42 BB, 87 K
4.73 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 2.07 K/BB, 6.33 K/9, 0.81 GO/AO

While the W/L record and ERA look bad, Cecil's 2011 season wasn't that different than his breakout 2010 season. His strikeout rate improved, while his walk and groundball rates declined slightly. The biggest difference was a spiked home run rate (2010: 8.7% HR/FB, 2011: 13.3% HR/FB), which was likely the result of a decline in average fastball velocity (2010: 90.1 mph, 2011: 88.5 mph). Cecil has put on 10-15 lbs since being drafted, so it is possible the dip in velocity is related to a lack of conditioning on Cecil's part. Cecil did not do enough in 2011 to guarantee a rotation spot entering next season, so hopefully he will take offseason workouts more seriously this time around.

Grade: C-

RHP Henderson Alvarez (21)
1-3, 63.2 IP, 64 H, 25 ER, 8 HR, 8 BB, 40 K
3.53 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 5.00 K/BB, 5.65 K/9, 1.75 GO/AO

Henderson Alvarez has almost everything you want in a pitching prospect. Despite being plucked from the minor leagues at the ripe age of 21, he showed no fear in facing major league hitters, carving up lineups with command (1.13 BB/9) that hasn't been seen in Toronto since Roy Halladay left town. Alvarez works primarily off his heavy 92-95 mph fastball (averaged 93.3 mph), throwing it 71.8% of the time. His changeup came as advertised, while his slider looked surprisingly good given how sparingly he throws it. His one victory in ten starts should ashame the Blue Jays offense, as Hendo was the 2nd best pitcher on the team over the last two months of the season. The only issue with Hendo is the lack of strikeouts, as pitchers with stuff like him should not have a sub-6 K/9.

Grade: A-

RHP Dustin McGowan (29)
0-2, 21 IP, 20 H, 15 ER, 4 HR, 13 BB, 20 K
6.43 ERA, 1.57 WHIP, 1.54 K/BB, 8.57 K/9, 1.47 GO/AO

The fact that McGowan has returned to the big leagues at all is a victory in and of itself, and as such expectations should be grounded. After missing nearly three full seasons due to a variety of injuries, McGowan managed to pitch quite well in his return. The walk rate was high, but given that command is always the last thing to return after coming back from serious arm injuries, it's unsurprising. The biggest positive for McGowan was that he maintained his strong repetoire despite the layoff. His fastball averaged 93.0 mph, and his power slider clocked in with an 86.9 mph average.

Grade: B+

RHP Kyle Drabek (23)
4-5, 78.2 IP, 87 H, 53 ER, 10 HR, 55 BB, 51 K
6.06 ERA, 1.81 WHIP, 0.93 K/BB, 5.83 K/9, 1.22 GO/AO

It's extremely difficult to say anything positive about Kyle Drabek's season. Plain and simply, he shit the bed. At the time of his demotion he led all of baseball in walks, and was one of the few pitchers with fewer strikeouts than walks. In addition to losing any semblance of command, he got hit around, and his .310 BABIP suggests hitters weren't getting lucky -- they were driving balls. Drbaek was demoted to Triple-A in June and actually pitched worse in the minor leagues. Experts are flabbergasted at Drabek's implosion, and it can only be hoped that four months away from pitching and a clean slate to start 2012 will be the cure to what ails him.

Grade: F

The Enigma that is Brandon Morrow

On December 16th, 2009, the Blue Jays made a franchise changing decision by dealing Roy Halladay to the Philadelphia Phillies. During the negotiations, the Phillies were attempting to trade their then-ace, Cliff Lee, and the Mariners were showing a lot of interest. As news of the trade negotiations slowly leaked, fans heard countless names and hypothetical exchanges tossed in the air by media outlets, including a possible three-way trade between Toronto, Philadelphia, and Seattle, where Halladay would go to the Phillies, Lee would go to the Mariners, and a combination of Philadelphia and Seattle prospects would come to Toronto. It made sense at the time, given Philadelphia GM Ruben Amaro Jr's reluctance to include Kyle Drabek in the deal. Perhaps the Blue Jays would receive their future ace from Seattle.

The messageboards erupted in a fury of trade proposals, with names such as Michael Saunders, Carlos Triunfel, and that guy Brandon Morrow being imagined in Blue Jays uniforms. A few hours later, the trade had been completed, and Seattle and Toronto made no exchanges. The Blue Jays sent Halladay to the Phillies for a prospect package, and the Phillies sent Lee to the Mariners in exchange for a prospect package to resupply their minor leagues. While Toronto did not receive any Seattle players in the Halladay trade, Alex Anthopolous and Seattle GM Jack Zduriencik were evidently laying down groundwork on another trade during negotiations. Exactly one week later, Toronto sent flame throwing Hawaiian Brandon League and minor league outfielder Johermyn Chavez to the Mariners for former 5th overall pick Brandon Morrow. While the Roy Halladay deal rightfully garnered a lot of attention, the Brandon Morrow trade could prove to be just as impactful, making December 2009 perhaps the most important month in Blue Jays history over the past 15 years.

When he was with Seattle, to say Brandon Morrow was misused would be an understatement. Despite being drafted in June 2006, Morrow debuted in the major leagues in April 2007 -- only 10 months later -- with a grand total of 16 minor league innings under his belt. The Mariners chose to use him as a reliever to begin his career, and while the 4.12 ERA looks decent for a rookie, his 1.67 WHIP and 5.12 xFIP suggest he was lucky to maintain that acceptable ERA.

In 2008, his second full year since being drafted, the chaos began, with Morrow splitting the season between the minor and major leagues. He made 6 relief appearances with Double-A, 5 starts and 1 relief appearance with Triple-A, and 5 starts and 40 relief appearances in Seattle -- totalling 10 starts and 47 relief appearances. The results improved, but walks were still a significant issue for Morrow. In his 95.1 total innings across the three levels, Morrow walked 51 batters, for a sub-par 4.81 BB/9. He finished 24 games for Seattle (10 of which went for saves), which led many to believe Morrow might be the anchor in Seattle's bullpen for years to come.

Morrow's future became even more turbid with the onset of the 2009, as it became clear that Seattle had no idea what to do with their former first round pick. He had performed well as a reliever, but when a 5th overall pick is used on a pitcher, it is expected that they will be a starter in the long-term. Morrow began the year in Seattle, working once again as a fireman in the back of the bullpen. He made 16 relief appearances, 9 of which were to finish a game, 6 of which went for saves. Things went downhill in May, when Morrow pitched to a 10.38 ERA and 2.54 WHIP. Less than half way through the year, the Seattle brain trust flip-flopped on their spring stance, instead deciding it was time for Morrow to develop as a starter. They sent him back down to Triple-A Tacoma to build up a starter's arm strength, where he made 10 starts with mixed results. In late summer, Morrow was promoted back up to Seattle, this time pitching in a rotation that included Felix Hernandez, and Erik Bedard. Morrow flashed his top of the rotation potential during his September callup, particularly in his September 30th start against the division rival Oakland A's. Morrow went 8 shutout innings, allowing only 1 hit and 2 walks while striking out 9. In the winter of 2009, the aformentioned trade was consumated, with Morrow taking his talents to Toronto.

Years down the line, after he has retired, Morrow's time with Seattle may well be considered nothing more than the preface to his true career. From 2006 through the end of 2009, Morrow pitched a grand total of 299.1 innings. For comparison, the Blue Jays current starting rotation includes two other pitchers who, like Morrow, were drafted as college juniors in the first round of their drafts. The first, Ricky Romero, threw 415.2 innings in the minor leagues before finally debuting in Toronto. The second, Brett Cecil, pitched 217.1 innings in the minor leagues before making his debut, and another 93.1 in his first year with Toronto before establishing himself as more than a temp in 2010. Morrow's entire time with Seattle -- both in the minors and majors -- is roughly in the same ballpark as his new rotation mates minor league careers. This is why when Morrow was traded to Toronto and finally given the professional stability that every major league pitcher desires, I thought of him more as a rookie, not the 4th year guy he was in actuality. It was a new team, a new country, a clean slate, and a front office with foresight and direction.

The 2010 season was not an easy one for Morrow. Throughout spring training and the first couple months of the season, he and Blue Jays pitching coach Bruce Walton had to work to undo three years worth of poor coaching. Unsurprinsingly, the in-game results were less than perfect, which caused many of the short sighted members of Toronto's fanbase to declare him a bust and the trade itself a failure. Morrow's season hit its lowest point on a bitingly cold, windy night in Fenway Park on the 10th of May. He recorded only 5 outs while giving up 6 earned runs on 3 hits and 6 walks, causing his season ERA to balloon to 6.69. An observant fan would have noticed that, in nearly every start of the entire first half of the season, Morrow had a slightly different delivery. He and Bruce Walton were constantly tweaking his wind-up, arm slot, and release point in an effort to find something that he would find comfortable but also provide results.

Eventually they settled upon a delivery somewhat reminiscent of AJ Burnett's, which included a short pause and turn of the hips at the peak of his windup. On May 30th, Morrow had an ERA of 6.00. He made 15 starts over the remainder of the year before being shut down due to an inning limit, and saw his ERA drop in 11 of those 15 starts, a marked improvement over the first 2 months of the season. The second half of his season was highlighted by his August 8th start at the Rogers Centre against the visiting Tampa Bay Rays. The Blue Jays won the game 1-0, with Morrow striking out 17 batters on the evening. Tampa's first (and only) hit came in the form of a chopper to the right side of the infield with 2 outs in the 9th inning, which Aaron Hill couldn't lasso. He finished the season with a 4.49 ERA, but his 3.16 FIP, 3.48 xFIP, and 10.95 K/9 showed he had the potential for much, much more.

Expectations were hightened entering Morrow's second year in Toronto, but they were quickly tempered by a bout of soreness in his pitching arm during spring training, an ailment which forced him to shut things down for a few weeks. Much like 2010, this year has been another up and down season for Morrow, but there have been two dramatic improvements over his first year in Toronto. First, the downs this season have been less severe than those he experienced in 2010. While he has struggled on occasion, there has never been any question as to whether or not he belongs in a major league starting rotation. Secondly, the lack of control that has plagued Morrow throughout his career has seen a significant improvement. After posting a combined 5.83 BB/9 in his big league time with Seattle, Morrow lowered his walk rate to 4.06 BB/9 in 2010. He has taken it a step further in 2011, lowering his BB/9 to a very respectable 3.34. His 3.10 FIP and 3.36 xFIP emphasize how well he has pitched overall. When put into context with his 2010 numbers (3.16 FIP, 3.48 xFIP), it is clear that Brandon Morrow has the potential to be a dominant starting pitcher in the major leagues.

While Morrow will receive a pass for 2011, the expectations will be raised once again for the 2012 season. For the first time in far too long, Toronto is on the verge of playoff contention, and 2012 could be the year in which the Blue Jays put their foot in the door. For that to happen, Toronto is going to need consistency from the roster, as well as for key players to finally live up to their potential. While guys like Colby Rasmus, Travis Snider, and Kyle Drabek are on that list, Brandon Morrow is most certainly at the top. After two full years of starting in the major leagues, it will be time for Morrow to show the world what kind of pitcher he is. His FIP numbers over the past two years (3.16, 3.10) are extremely similar to those of his fellow 2006 first round pick and 2-time NL Cy Young award winner Tim Lincecum (3.15, 2.87), which displays the kind of limitless ceiling Brandon Morrow has. With Ricky Romero at his side to lead the Blue Jays rotation for years to come, it is time for Morrow to bring his ERA down to his FIP and xFIP range and break free of the "next AJ Burnett" label that far too many casual Blue Jays fans have laid upon him.

Upcoming pitching staff changes

With Brandon Morrow and Franky Francisco set to make the trip from Dunedin up to Toronto for the upcoming series against the Yankees, a number of roster moves are in order. The Blue Jays are currently rocking an 8 man bullpen and 3 man bench. With today's demotion of Mike McCoy as a result of Encarnacion's return, the bench currently consists of Jose Molina, John McDonald, and Juan Rivera.

The 8 man bullpen / 3 man bench system is likely to remain intact until Rajai Davis returns (unless of course we get rid of Juan Rivera somehow), at which point the bullpen will be cut to 7 arms and another issue will arise. That, however, is the proverbial bridge to be crossed when we get there.

The bullpen currently consists of Rauch, Camp, Rzepczynski, Frasor, Dotel, Janssen, Villanueva, and Perez. Of these 8, Janssen, Villanueva, and Perez are the only three with minor league options remaining. Villanueva has been invaluable as a long man, so his spot is likely safe for the time being. Perez is likely the odd man out with Francisco's return, as he both has options and has the least tenure of the group. That does leave an 8 man bullpen with only one left hander however.

Morrow's return is what creates the greatest problem. It is fair to say he will either be taking the spot currently held by Jesse Litsch or Jo-Jo Reyes. Litsch has a minor league option remaining, so if he is replaced he would likely be sent to Triple-A Las Vegas. Reyes is out of options, however, so if he loses his spot in the rotation it is likely he would join the bullpen as management would be wise to avoid trying to pass him through waivers. If Reyes joins the bullpen, another bullpen arm must be sent down. This leaves the following scenarios:

1. Morrow replaces Litsch, Francisco replaces Perez, Litsch and Perez to Triple-A (leaving 1 LHP in bullpen)
2. Morrow replace Litsch, Francisco replaces Janssen, Litsch and Janssen to Triple-A (leaving 2 LHP in bullpen)
3. Morrow replaces Reyes, Francisco replaces Perez, Reyes to bullpen, Perez and Janssen to Triple-A (leaving 2 LHP in bullpen)

I find it hard to believe we would run an 8 man bullpen with only one lefty, so I find option 1 far fetched. Stuff wise, I'd rather see what Reyes can do over Litsch. Performance wise, which is likely what the front office is looking at, the two starters have both struggled, which leads me to believe options 2 and 3 are equally probably.

The one constant between options 2 and 3 is that Janssen is likely to be demoted to Triple-A, despite a relatively solid performance so far this season (though he has allowed a lot of inherited runners to score). One solace he can take, however, is that by the end of July, it's probably that atleast 1, and possibly 2 of the 3 veteran relievers we acquired this offseason (Francisco, Dotel, Rauch) will have been moved, and there will be bullpen openings to close out the year. He's also likely to be the #1 option in case of injury.