Blue Jay Prognostication: The Rotation

With Spring Training just around the corner, it’s time to look at what some of the major prognostication sources predict for Blue Jays players for the 2012 season. I gathered projections from four sources:

Bill James -– Author of “The Bill James Handbook” and one of the original sabermetricians
RotoChamp –- A fantasy baseball projection website
MLB.com –- The official fantasy baseball projections of Major League Baseball
PECOTA -– Baseball Prospectus’ weighted player projection system

In addition to those four projections, I added data from the 2011 season, as well as my personal prediction for each players statistics. With prognostication there’s no right or wrong way to do it -– trends, historical comparisons, three year averages, and league average systems are all valid. For my projections, I used a combination of statistical evidence and gut feeling, as one thing I have that the others do not is exposure. I watch 140+ games every season and immerse myself in everything Blue Jays. That has to count for something, right?

Ricky Romero



There’s no debating that 2011 was a breakout year for Ricky Romero. In his first year as the ace of the staff Romero encapsulated himself in the mantra, attacking hitters instead of nipping corners. As such, he threw a personal best 225 innings, while seeing both his walk rate and strikeout rate drop. That’s not to say Romero isn’t a strikeout pitcher anymore -– his 178 were 12th best in the AL –- he’s just pitching smarter. With runners on the corner and 1 out, it’s a lot easier to get out of the inning with a weak ground ball as opposed to two strikeouts.

With that being said, most projections seem to feel Romero is going to take a step back in 2012. His ERA is going to rise, there’s no doubt about that -– his .242 BABIP and 79.2% LOB values from last season are unsustainable. Even so, both Bill James and PECOTA went a bit overboard. The PECOTA projection of a 4.33 ERA and 1.40 WHIP is flabbergasting to anyone who actually watched a Blue Jays game last season. Assuming the strikeout and walk rates remain consistent with 2011 -– which all systems project them to –- the normalization of his BABIP and LOB% to more league average values would peg him with a low to mid 3 ERA and a WHIP in the low 1.2’s.

Brandon Morrow



For Morrow, 2011 was not the breakout season most Blue Jays fans were hoping for -– at least, not on the surface. Morrow’s ERA ballooned to 4.72, and even topped 5 in the summer months. Despite this, he did show some substantial signs of improvement. While adding 33 more innings onto his arm, Morrow maintained his league-leading strikeout rate, while cutting his walk rate from 4.06 to 3.46 – a significant improvement. The biggest problem for Morrow –- which has been well documented this offseason –- is his inability to get out of trouble once runners get aboard. His 65.5% LOB rate is well below league average, and absolutely killed his ERA.

All five prognostications, myself included, agree that Morrow should finally turn the corner in 2012. The amount in which he’ll improve, however, is up for debate. MLB.com and PECOTA have the most pessimistic projections, expecting a drop-off in strikeout rate with an increase in walk rate. I disagree, and have the most optimistic view of Morrow’s 2012 season. While I expect the strikeout rate to take a small step back as Morrow further approaches the 200 inning plateau, I feel the biggest difference this season will be improved command. Morrow has substantially improved his walk rate in each of the past three seasons, and with his newfound aggressive mentality, I expect him to attack hitters in 2012 and further cut down that walk rate.

Henderson Alvarez



Alvarez will only be 21 years old on Opening Day, yet after an impressive top-to-bottom 2011 season, there’s little doubt he is poised to make the leap to full-time MLB starter. After receiving the call in August, Alvarez displayed his power arsenal and impeccable command, dominating hitters to the tune of a 3.53 ERA and 1.13 WHIP. What was perhaps even more impressive was his stamina and reliability, as he pitched 6 or more innings in eight of his ten starts. The only flaw with his debut was the lack of strikeouts, as Alvarez’ 5.65 K/9 were subpar for a pitcher with his type of stuff.

Bill James failed to give a projection for Hendo, so in the case of Alvarez we have only four predictions to inspect. It’s readily apparent that one of the four is not like the others. PECOTA expects a complete implosion by Alvarez, pegging him for a 5.50 ERA, 1.51 WHIP, and an unfathomable 4.40 K/9. Additionally, they project a walk rate approaching 3, despite the fact Hendo’s worst walk rate at any level is 2.16. To be perfectly frank, that prediction deserves to be thrown out. The remaining three projections all agree that Alvarez’ ERA is likely to fall in the mid-3 range. RotoChamp expects him to maintain his impeccable 2011 command, walking only 19 in 150 innings while striking out a modest 95. MLB.com and I, however, feel he’ll throttle up the strikeouts at the expense of some command. Throughout his minor league career, Alvarez was typically in the mid to high 6 range for strikeouts per 9, and with his stuff, there’s no reason that shouldn’t translate to the major leagues in 2012.

Brett Cecil



After being selected by Toronto in the 1st round of the 2007 draft, Brett Cecil really appeared to come into his own in 2010. While the ERA was merely “good” at 4.22, he showed excellent command, strong groundball tendencies, and a solid strikeout rate. He even led the team in wins, with 15. Things fell apart quickly in 2011, as after an ugly start to the season he faced a demotion to Triple-A, where he would make 12 starts. Even after his return in late June he still wasn’t the same pitcher we saw in 2010. The strikeouts were still there, but the groundout to flyout ratio of 0.81 was well below the 1.21 mark from 2010 that allowed him to be so successful.

If a lack of conditioning is the reason for the drop in performance, then the problem should be easily remedied. All five prognostications –- myself included -– expect an improvement in 2012, though the degree of improvement is quite varied. MLB.com projects drastic improvements in both strikeout and walk rates, resulting in what would be a career-best ERA of 3.82. The remaining four expect Cecil to post rates consistent with his 2010 and 2011 numbers, but an improved ERA due to a more Brett Cecil-like groundball rate. Throughout his minor league career his groundout to flyout ratio was around 2, and with a focus on conditioning and fundamentals there’s no reason his ratio should be as poor as it was last season.

Dustin McGowan



The fact McGowan is even mentioned on the starting pitcher projections is incredible given what he’s gone through since 2008. A trio of major surgeries and seemingly endless rehabilitation kept McGowan out of the major leagues for over three calendar years before he finally returned late last season. The Blue Jays have been medically advised that McGowan has a better chance of remaining healthy with a consistent schedule, and Toronto appears poised to give him every opportunity to achieve that consistency as a member of the rotation in 2012.

Given the lack of any actual data for three years, it’s astounding how similar all five projections are. The range in innings, strikeouts, and walks are 15, 19, and 16 respectively, while the range in ERA is merely a third of a run. The biggest variance is hits allowed (and therefore WHIP), but given that only 3 of the lines have projections for those statistics it’s hard to make any substantial analysis. PECOTA and MLB.com estimate roughly a hit per inning, but when considering how in his last healthy season (2007) he held hitters to a .230 batting average against -– and his stuff is still there -– I find that hard to believe. Regardless, Dustin McGowan is in such a bizarre and unique situation that absolutely anything could happen.

Kyle Drabek



How the mighty have fallen. Drabek was pegged as one of the favorites for the American League Rookie of the Year in the spring of 2011, and his first start of the year –- 7 one-hit innings –- only further cemented that optimism. As the season wore on, Drabek’s control and curveball left him, followed closely by his confidence. He became a shell of his former self, and only got worse after an ill-advised demotion to the launching pad of Las Vegas. A year after being Toronto’s best pitching prospect, Drabek is now the red-headed step child to this often unforgiving fanbase.

I easily have the most optimistic projection for Drabek, and it’s because he’s simply too young and talented to give up on. A year ago, a 4.40 ERA and 1.42 would be a pessimistic view on Drabek. Today, fans would shed tears of joy if he achieved those goals. He has a power fastball, incredible curveball (which completely disappeared in his disastrous 2011 -– coincidence?), and a much improved cutter. His command is without a doubt shaky, but he has the stuff and the pedigree to be a successful major league pitcher. For now, Drabek just needs to focus on the basics that made him the heralded prospect he was and take things one step at a time. The numbers will come later. I’m not even going to discuss the negative predictions -- if you want to see someone kick a guy while he's down, look elsewhere. Blue Jays fans need to remember that every time Drabek blew a game, it hurt him far more than it hurt us. He deserves a chance at redemption.

Making the Grade: The Starters

The first segment of "Making the Grade" will be Toronto's starting pitchers. While we saw a large number of different pitchers make starts throughout the year, this list will be exclusively for pitchers who either finished the season in the starting rotation, or made more starts than relief appearances throughout the duration of the season.

Part II Making the Grade: The Bullpen
Part III Making the Grade: The Infield
Part IV Making the Grade: The Outfield

LHP Ricky Romero (26)
15-11, 225 IP, 176 H, 73 ER, 26 HR, 80 BB, 178 K
2.92 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 2.23 K/BB, 7.12 K/9, 1.79 GO/AO

For the second consecutive offseason, Toronto traded their previous years' Opening Day starter, which forced Romero directly into the spotlight as the new ace of the staff. Ricky stepped up to the challenge being laid down, posting careers bests in innings pitched, ERA, and walks per nine. Romero fully embraced the ace mantra, as he sacrificed strikeouts in an effort to go deeper into ball games (2010: 15.3 pitches per inning, 2011: 14.9 pitches per innning). In addition to throwing more 2-seam fastballs, Romero also threw harder than ever before, with his fastball averaging 92.0 mph in 2011 after averaging 90.9 mph in 2010. The only thing holding him back from an A+ grade are home runs allowed, where Romero's 26 were tied for 4th in the AL.

Grade: A

RHP Brandon Morrow (27)
11-11, 179.1 IP, 162 H, 94 ER, 21 HR, 69 BB, 203 K
4.72 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 2.94 K/BB, 10.19 K/9, 0.71 GO/AO

To say that expectation were high for Brandon Morrow entering 2011 would be a colossal understatement. After putting together a 3.69 ERA and 1.21 WHIP in the second half of 2010, it was thought Morrow was ready to take the next step into ace-dome and help Ricky Romero lead this pitching staff into the future. While Romero took the step forward, Morrow stumbled out of the starting block (5.51 ERA, 1.56 WHIP in May after making only 2 April starts) and was never able to fully recover. The three positives to come from Morrow's season were his health, the development of a cutter late in the season as well as an improvement in command (2010: 4.06 BB/9, 2011: 3.46 BB/9), which kept him from a failing grade.

Grade: C

LHP Brett Cecil (25)
4-11, 123.2 IP, 122 H, 65 ER, 22 HR, 42 BB, 87 K
4.73 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 2.07 K/BB, 6.33 K/9, 0.81 GO/AO

While the W/L record and ERA look bad, Cecil's 2011 season wasn't that different than his breakout 2010 season. His strikeout rate improved, while his walk and groundball rates declined slightly. The biggest difference was a spiked home run rate (2010: 8.7% HR/FB, 2011: 13.3% HR/FB), which was likely the result of a decline in average fastball velocity (2010: 90.1 mph, 2011: 88.5 mph). Cecil has put on 10-15 lbs since being drafted, so it is possible the dip in velocity is related to a lack of conditioning on Cecil's part. Cecil did not do enough in 2011 to guarantee a rotation spot entering next season, so hopefully he will take offseason workouts more seriously this time around.

Grade: C-

RHP Henderson Alvarez (21)
1-3, 63.2 IP, 64 H, 25 ER, 8 HR, 8 BB, 40 K
3.53 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 5.00 K/BB, 5.65 K/9, 1.75 GO/AO

Henderson Alvarez has almost everything you want in a pitching prospect. Despite being plucked from the minor leagues at the ripe age of 21, he showed no fear in facing major league hitters, carving up lineups with command (1.13 BB/9) that hasn't been seen in Toronto since Roy Halladay left town. Alvarez works primarily off his heavy 92-95 mph fastball (averaged 93.3 mph), throwing it 71.8% of the time. His changeup came as advertised, while his slider looked surprisingly good given how sparingly he throws it. His one victory in ten starts should ashame the Blue Jays offense, as Hendo was the 2nd best pitcher on the team over the last two months of the season. The only issue with Hendo is the lack of strikeouts, as pitchers with stuff like him should not have a sub-6 K/9.

Grade: A-

RHP Dustin McGowan (29)
0-2, 21 IP, 20 H, 15 ER, 4 HR, 13 BB, 20 K
6.43 ERA, 1.57 WHIP, 1.54 K/BB, 8.57 K/9, 1.47 GO/AO

The fact that McGowan has returned to the big leagues at all is a victory in and of itself, and as such expectations should be grounded. After missing nearly three full seasons due to a variety of injuries, McGowan managed to pitch quite well in his return. The walk rate was high, but given that command is always the last thing to return after coming back from serious arm injuries, it's unsurprising. The biggest positive for McGowan was that he maintained his strong repetoire despite the layoff. His fastball averaged 93.0 mph, and his power slider clocked in with an 86.9 mph average.

Grade: B+

RHP Kyle Drabek (23)
4-5, 78.2 IP, 87 H, 53 ER, 10 HR, 55 BB, 51 K
6.06 ERA, 1.81 WHIP, 0.93 K/BB, 5.83 K/9, 1.22 GO/AO

It's extremely difficult to say anything positive about Kyle Drabek's season. Plain and simply, he shit the bed. At the time of his demotion he led all of baseball in walks, and was one of the few pitchers with fewer strikeouts than walks. In addition to losing any semblance of command, he got hit around, and his .310 BABIP suggests hitters weren't getting lucky -- they were driving balls. Drbaek was demoted to Triple-A in June and actually pitched worse in the minor leagues. Experts are flabbergasted at Drabek's implosion, and it can only be hoped that four months away from pitching and a clean slate to start 2012 will be the cure to what ails him.

Grade: F

A look back at past drafts

It is a widely accepted theory that in order to accurately analyze a baseball draft, four or five years need to pass. This is because, unlike the other three major sports (NFL, NHL, NBA), baseball draftees do not immediately step into the major leagues. College draftees usually spend between one and three years in the minor leagues before seeing the majors, while highschool draftees can take upwards of five or six years to make their debut.

The first half of the decade saw a regime change, as long time General Manager Gord Ash (who was known for his strong drafts) was replaced after the 2001 season in favor of one of Billy Beane's understudies, J.P. Ricciardi. Ricciardi was known for his eye for talent, and declared that acquiring amateur talent through the draft would be his method of overthrowing the AL East powers and finally bringing Toronto back to the playoffs.

While the story of J.P. Ricciardi's egotisical dictatorship in Toronto is an interesting one, we shall instead look at how he, and his predecessor Gord Ash, did in acquiring talent through the draft from the turn of the millenium through 2007.

2000:

Top draftee: CF Miguel Negron (1st round, 18th overall)
Best pick: RHP Dustin McGowan (Supplemental 1st round)

Miguel Negron was easily the worst 1st round pick on this list, but given how poor the 2000 draft ended up being, it's hard to fault the front office. Of the 40 first round and supplemental first round picks, only three went on to become All Stars (Adrian Gonzalez, Chase Utley, Adam Wainwright), and only Wainwright was drafted after Negron. McGowan was the prize for Toronto in this draft. After struggling to reach the majors, McGowan put it all together in 2007, pitching to a 3.79 xFIP and 3.9 fWAR. McGowan was on his way to another 3+ fWAR season in 2008 until he went down with a series of serious arm issues, and hasn't seen the majors since.

2001:

Top draftee: LF Gabe Gross (1st round, 15th overall)
Best pick: RHP Brandon League (2nd round)

When the highlight of your draft is a relief pitcher who has totalled a 3.58 xFIP and 2.9 fWAR over parts of 8 major league seasons, you know the draft went poorly. Neither Gross or League ever amounted to much in Toronto, and their biggest impact may be who they brought back in trades. Gross was traded along with two pitchers to Milwaukee for Lyle Overbay, who had a strong 2006 season (.880 OPS) and helped Toronto take 2nd place in the AL East for the first time this decade. Brandon League was traded to Seattle in a three player deal that brought Brandon Morrow (6.7 fWAR in ~300 IP) to Toronto.

2002:

Top draftee: SS Russ Adams (1st round, 14th overall)
Best pick: RHP Dave Bush (2nd round)

The 2002 draft was yet another that did not yield much in terms of talent for Toronto, though the rest of baseball made out alright. The three picks immediately after Russ Adams (15th, 16th, and 17th overall) all produced future All Stars in Scott Kazmir, Nick Swisher, and Cole Hamels. For comparison, Russ Adams produced a career -0.9 fWAR. The other three players produced 16.8, 23.0, and 23.4 fWAR respectively. Dave Bush, a 2nd rounder, was Toronto's best pick of the draft. Bush produced 3.5 fWAR in parts of 2 seasons for the Blue Jays before being shipped to Milwaukee in the Lyle Overbay trade. He gave Milwaukee a respectable 6.9 fWAR pitching both in the rotation and bullpen across 5 seasons, and is now pitching in the Texas Rangers organization.

2003:

Top draftee: SS Aaron Hill (1st round, 13th overall)
Best pick: RHP Shaun Marcum (3rd round)
Honorable mention: 3B Ryan Roberts (18th round)

Despite taking a shortstop in the first round of 2002, J.P. Ricciardi went that route again in 2003, and this time it actually worked out. Hill was moved to second base due to Russ Adams, and stayed there long after Russ Adams had left the organization. He entered 2011 with a career 13.5 fWAR over 6 years, but after producing negative value for Toronto this year, he was traded to Arizona. While Hill proved to be a strong pick, the best pick of the draft was Shaun Marcum, for two distinct reasons. First, he pitched well, and is now up to 10.0 career fWAR. Second, and perhaps more importantly, he was traded to Milwaukee (yes, those same Brewers!) in the 2010 offseason for Brett Lawrie. Despite having only a month worth of at-bats, Lawrie has nearly matched Marcum's production this year (2.0 to 2.6 fWAR). Ryan Roberts deserves mention, as he has carved out a solid major league career despite being drafted in the 18th round. He is having a career year with Arizona this year as they head to the post season, producing a 3.8 fWAR.

2004:

Top draftee: LHP David Purcey (1st round, 16th overall)
Best pick: 1B Adam Lind (3rd round)
Honorable mention: RHP Casey Janssen (4th round), RHP Jesse Litsch (24th round)

2004 should be considered a successful draft, as it produced four players who have spent extensive amounts of time in the major leagues. Purcey struggled in the minors as a starter and was eventually converted to a relief pitcher. He had a decent 2010 season (4.35 xFIP), but completely fell apart in 2011 and has been designated for assignment twice already this season. Lind, Janssen, and Litsch have producted similar value in Toronto (4.5, 4.0, and 3.7 fWAR respectively), but have achieved it in very different ways. Lind has 4 full seasons of at-bats, but his 3.7 fWAR 2009 season carried a majority of his career production to date. Janssen produced 1.2 fWAR in his single season of starting, and a respectable 2.8 fWAR in his 4 season of relief combined. Like Lind, Litsch produced a majority of his career value in one season (2008: 2.6 fWAR), though that can be atleast partially attributed to injuries over recent seasons.

2005:

Top draftee: LHP Ricky Romero (1st round, 6th overall)
Best pick: LHP Ricky Romero (1st round)

The 2005 draft was perhaps the most impressive of the 21st century. Of the 30 players taken in the first round, 8 have gone on to become All Stars (including Ricky Romero in 2011). Beyond those 8, the first round also produced 5 other above average major leaguers in Alex Gordon, Mike Pelfrey, Cameron Maybin, Matt Garza, and Colby Rasmus. The Romero pick was poorly received by the baseball world and Toronto alike, and looked particularly awful following the 2007 season in which Troy Tulowitzki (drafted 7th overall) burst onto the scene as a superstar. Over the last few seasons, however, Romero has established himself as Toronto's #1 starter, so this draft must be considered a success.

2006:

Top draftee: RF Travis Snider (1st round, 14th overall)
Best pick: RF Travis Snider (1st round)

Five years later, only two players from the 2006 draft have reached the majors -- Travis Snider and Brian Jeroloman. While his future potential has become cloudy due to consistent struggles over the past two season, Snider is without question the best player to come from this draft. Snider was J.P. Ricciardi's first highschool player taken in the first round, which was a nice change of pace from his conservative low-risk approach in earlier seasons. Whether or not that risk will pay off may still not be known for another two years.

2007:

Top draftee: SS Kevin Ahrens (1st round, 16th overall)
Best pick: LHP Brett Cecil (Supplementary 1st round), C J.P. Arencibia (1st round, 21st overall)
Honorable mention: LHP Marc Rzepczynski (5th round)

The 2007 draft was easily the best of J.P. Ricciardi's reign despite the fact 3 of the 5 first round picks have struggled in minor leagues. The best pick of this draft is a tie between Brett Cecil and J.P. Arencibia. Cecil has been a consistent starter in the major leagues over the past 2 years (4.15 xFIP, 4.48 xFIP), while Arencibia has performed well as a rookie catcher in 2011 (1.3 fWAR). Marc Rzepczynski deserves mention, as even though he had an up and down career over 3 years with Toronto, he was a key part of the trade with St. Louis that brought Colby Rasmus to Toronto.

I would break down the 8 drafts examined as follows:

Good drafts: 2003, 2004, 2007
Mediocre drafts: 2000, 2005, 2006
Poor drafts: 2001, 2002

For a draft to be considered successful, it is expected that is produces more than one player who produced signficant value at the major league level. 2003, 2004, and 2007 all had atleast two players reach the major leagues and have a quantifiable impact. I consider 2000, 2005, and 2006 to be mediocre drafts because they each produced only one major leaguer, though McGowan and Romero are special players. The 2006 draft is on the fence between mediocre and poor, as Snider is the only player it produced and he has yet to flourish in the major leagues. The 2001 and 2002 drafts were failures, though the players acquired through trade for the draftees should not go unnoticed.

When looking over this information, it is very understanable why Toronto was rated as having one of the worst minor league systems over much of the decade. With J.P. Ricciardi gone and Alex Anthopolous now running the show, it will be interesting to compare how the two contrasting draft styles stack up down the road. Anthopolous has received rave early reviews of his first two drafts as a general manager (2010 and 2011), but it won't be until 2015 when those draftees have seen substantial major league time that we will be able to comprehend how much of a success they were or weren't.