Blue Jay Prognostication: The Rotation

With Spring Training just around the corner, it’s time to look at what some of the major prognostication sources predict for Blue Jays players for the 2012 season. I gathered projections from four sources:

Bill James -– Author of “The Bill James Handbook” and one of the original sabermetricians
RotoChamp –- A fantasy baseball projection website
MLB.com –- The official fantasy baseball projections of Major League Baseball
PECOTA -– Baseball Prospectus’ weighted player projection system

In addition to those four projections, I added data from the 2011 season, as well as my personal prediction for each players statistics. With prognostication there’s no right or wrong way to do it -– trends, historical comparisons, three year averages, and league average systems are all valid. For my projections, I used a combination of statistical evidence and gut feeling, as one thing I have that the others do not is exposure. I watch 140+ games every season and immerse myself in everything Blue Jays. That has to count for something, right?

Ricky Romero



There’s no debating that 2011 was a breakout year for Ricky Romero. In his first year as the ace of the staff Romero encapsulated himself in the mantra, attacking hitters instead of nipping corners. As such, he threw a personal best 225 innings, while seeing both his walk rate and strikeout rate drop. That’s not to say Romero isn’t a strikeout pitcher anymore -– his 178 were 12th best in the AL –- he’s just pitching smarter. With runners on the corner and 1 out, it’s a lot easier to get out of the inning with a weak ground ball as opposed to two strikeouts.

With that being said, most projections seem to feel Romero is going to take a step back in 2012. His ERA is going to rise, there’s no doubt about that -– his .242 BABIP and 79.2% LOB values from last season are unsustainable. Even so, both Bill James and PECOTA went a bit overboard. The PECOTA projection of a 4.33 ERA and 1.40 WHIP is flabbergasting to anyone who actually watched a Blue Jays game last season. Assuming the strikeout and walk rates remain consistent with 2011 -– which all systems project them to –- the normalization of his BABIP and LOB% to more league average values would peg him with a low to mid 3 ERA and a WHIP in the low 1.2’s.

Brandon Morrow



For Morrow, 2011 was not the breakout season most Blue Jays fans were hoping for -– at least, not on the surface. Morrow’s ERA ballooned to 4.72, and even topped 5 in the summer months. Despite this, he did show some substantial signs of improvement. While adding 33 more innings onto his arm, Morrow maintained his league-leading strikeout rate, while cutting his walk rate from 4.06 to 3.46 – a significant improvement. The biggest problem for Morrow –- which has been well documented this offseason –- is his inability to get out of trouble once runners get aboard. His 65.5% LOB rate is well below league average, and absolutely killed his ERA.

All five prognostications, myself included, agree that Morrow should finally turn the corner in 2012. The amount in which he’ll improve, however, is up for debate. MLB.com and PECOTA have the most pessimistic projections, expecting a drop-off in strikeout rate with an increase in walk rate. I disagree, and have the most optimistic view of Morrow’s 2012 season. While I expect the strikeout rate to take a small step back as Morrow further approaches the 200 inning plateau, I feel the biggest difference this season will be improved command. Morrow has substantially improved his walk rate in each of the past three seasons, and with his newfound aggressive mentality, I expect him to attack hitters in 2012 and further cut down that walk rate.

Henderson Alvarez



Alvarez will only be 21 years old on Opening Day, yet after an impressive top-to-bottom 2011 season, there’s little doubt he is poised to make the leap to full-time MLB starter. After receiving the call in August, Alvarez displayed his power arsenal and impeccable command, dominating hitters to the tune of a 3.53 ERA and 1.13 WHIP. What was perhaps even more impressive was his stamina and reliability, as he pitched 6 or more innings in eight of his ten starts. The only flaw with his debut was the lack of strikeouts, as Alvarez’ 5.65 K/9 were subpar for a pitcher with his type of stuff.

Bill James failed to give a projection for Hendo, so in the case of Alvarez we have only four predictions to inspect. It’s readily apparent that one of the four is not like the others. PECOTA expects a complete implosion by Alvarez, pegging him for a 5.50 ERA, 1.51 WHIP, and an unfathomable 4.40 K/9. Additionally, they project a walk rate approaching 3, despite the fact Hendo’s worst walk rate at any level is 2.16. To be perfectly frank, that prediction deserves to be thrown out. The remaining three projections all agree that Alvarez’ ERA is likely to fall in the mid-3 range. RotoChamp expects him to maintain his impeccable 2011 command, walking only 19 in 150 innings while striking out a modest 95. MLB.com and I, however, feel he’ll throttle up the strikeouts at the expense of some command. Throughout his minor league career, Alvarez was typically in the mid to high 6 range for strikeouts per 9, and with his stuff, there’s no reason that shouldn’t translate to the major leagues in 2012.

Brett Cecil



After being selected by Toronto in the 1st round of the 2007 draft, Brett Cecil really appeared to come into his own in 2010. While the ERA was merely “good” at 4.22, he showed excellent command, strong groundball tendencies, and a solid strikeout rate. He even led the team in wins, with 15. Things fell apart quickly in 2011, as after an ugly start to the season he faced a demotion to Triple-A, where he would make 12 starts. Even after his return in late June he still wasn’t the same pitcher we saw in 2010. The strikeouts were still there, but the groundout to flyout ratio of 0.81 was well below the 1.21 mark from 2010 that allowed him to be so successful.

If a lack of conditioning is the reason for the drop in performance, then the problem should be easily remedied. All five prognostications –- myself included -– expect an improvement in 2012, though the degree of improvement is quite varied. MLB.com projects drastic improvements in both strikeout and walk rates, resulting in what would be a career-best ERA of 3.82. The remaining four expect Cecil to post rates consistent with his 2010 and 2011 numbers, but an improved ERA due to a more Brett Cecil-like groundball rate. Throughout his minor league career his groundout to flyout ratio was around 2, and with a focus on conditioning and fundamentals there’s no reason his ratio should be as poor as it was last season.

Dustin McGowan



The fact McGowan is even mentioned on the starting pitcher projections is incredible given what he’s gone through since 2008. A trio of major surgeries and seemingly endless rehabilitation kept McGowan out of the major leagues for over three calendar years before he finally returned late last season. The Blue Jays have been medically advised that McGowan has a better chance of remaining healthy with a consistent schedule, and Toronto appears poised to give him every opportunity to achieve that consistency as a member of the rotation in 2012.

Given the lack of any actual data for three years, it’s astounding how similar all five projections are. The range in innings, strikeouts, and walks are 15, 19, and 16 respectively, while the range in ERA is merely a third of a run. The biggest variance is hits allowed (and therefore WHIP), but given that only 3 of the lines have projections for those statistics it’s hard to make any substantial analysis. PECOTA and MLB.com estimate roughly a hit per inning, but when considering how in his last healthy season (2007) he held hitters to a .230 batting average against -– and his stuff is still there -– I find that hard to believe. Regardless, Dustin McGowan is in such a bizarre and unique situation that absolutely anything could happen.

Kyle Drabek



How the mighty have fallen. Drabek was pegged as one of the favorites for the American League Rookie of the Year in the spring of 2011, and his first start of the year –- 7 one-hit innings –- only further cemented that optimism. As the season wore on, Drabek’s control and curveball left him, followed closely by his confidence. He became a shell of his former self, and only got worse after an ill-advised demotion to the launching pad of Las Vegas. A year after being Toronto’s best pitching prospect, Drabek is now the red-headed step child to this often unforgiving fanbase.

I easily have the most optimistic projection for Drabek, and it’s because he’s simply too young and talented to give up on. A year ago, a 4.40 ERA and 1.42 would be a pessimistic view on Drabek. Today, fans would shed tears of joy if he achieved those goals. He has a power fastball, incredible curveball (which completely disappeared in his disastrous 2011 -– coincidence?), and a much improved cutter. His command is without a doubt shaky, but he has the stuff and the pedigree to be a successful major league pitcher. For now, Drabek just needs to focus on the basics that made him the heralded prospect he was and take things one step at a time. The numbers will come later. I’m not even going to discuss the negative predictions -- if you want to see someone kick a guy while he's down, look elsewhere. Blue Jays fans need to remember that every time Drabek blew a game, it hurt him far more than it hurt us. He deserves a chance at redemption.

Making the Grade: The Starters

The first segment of "Making the Grade" will be Toronto's starting pitchers. While we saw a large number of different pitchers make starts throughout the year, this list will be exclusively for pitchers who either finished the season in the starting rotation, or made more starts than relief appearances throughout the duration of the season.

Part II Making the Grade: The Bullpen
Part III Making the Grade: The Infield
Part IV Making the Grade: The Outfield

LHP Ricky Romero (26)
15-11, 225 IP, 176 H, 73 ER, 26 HR, 80 BB, 178 K
2.92 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 2.23 K/BB, 7.12 K/9, 1.79 GO/AO

For the second consecutive offseason, Toronto traded their previous years' Opening Day starter, which forced Romero directly into the spotlight as the new ace of the staff. Ricky stepped up to the challenge being laid down, posting careers bests in innings pitched, ERA, and walks per nine. Romero fully embraced the ace mantra, as he sacrificed strikeouts in an effort to go deeper into ball games (2010: 15.3 pitches per inning, 2011: 14.9 pitches per innning). In addition to throwing more 2-seam fastballs, Romero also threw harder than ever before, with his fastball averaging 92.0 mph in 2011 after averaging 90.9 mph in 2010. The only thing holding him back from an A+ grade are home runs allowed, where Romero's 26 were tied for 4th in the AL.

Grade: A

RHP Brandon Morrow (27)
11-11, 179.1 IP, 162 H, 94 ER, 21 HR, 69 BB, 203 K
4.72 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 2.94 K/BB, 10.19 K/9, 0.71 GO/AO

To say that expectation were high for Brandon Morrow entering 2011 would be a colossal understatement. After putting together a 3.69 ERA and 1.21 WHIP in the second half of 2010, it was thought Morrow was ready to take the next step into ace-dome and help Ricky Romero lead this pitching staff into the future. While Romero took the step forward, Morrow stumbled out of the starting block (5.51 ERA, 1.56 WHIP in May after making only 2 April starts) and was never able to fully recover. The three positives to come from Morrow's season were his health, the development of a cutter late in the season as well as an improvement in command (2010: 4.06 BB/9, 2011: 3.46 BB/9), which kept him from a failing grade.

Grade: C

LHP Brett Cecil (25)
4-11, 123.2 IP, 122 H, 65 ER, 22 HR, 42 BB, 87 K
4.73 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 2.07 K/BB, 6.33 K/9, 0.81 GO/AO

While the W/L record and ERA look bad, Cecil's 2011 season wasn't that different than his breakout 2010 season. His strikeout rate improved, while his walk and groundball rates declined slightly. The biggest difference was a spiked home run rate (2010: 8.7% HR/FB, 2011: 13.3% HR/FB), which was likely the result of a decline in average fastball velocity (2010: 90.1 mph, 2011: 88.5 mph). Cecil has put on 10-15 lbs since being drafted, so it is possible the dip in velocity is related to a lack of conditioning on Cecil's part. Cecil did not do enough in 2011 to guarantee a rotation spot entering next season, so hopefully he will take offseason workouts more seriously this time around.

Grade: C-

RHP Henderson Alvarez (21)
1-3, 63.2 IP, 64 H, 25 ER, 8 HR, 8 BB, 40 K
3.53 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 5.00 K/BB, 5.65 K/9, 1.75 GO/AO

Henderson Alvarez has almost everything you want in a pitching prospect. Despite being plucked from the minor leagues at the ripe age of 21, he showed no fear in facing major league hitters, carving up lineups with command (1.13 BB/9) that hasn't been seen in Toronto since Roy Halladay left town. Alvarez works primarily off his heavy 92-95 mph fastball (averaged 93.3 mph), throwing it 71.8% of the time. His changeup came as advertised, while his slider looked surprisingly good given how sparingly he throws it. His one victory in ten starts should ashame the Blue Jays offense, as Hendo was the 2nd best pitcher on the team over the last two months of the season. The only issue with Hendo is the lack of strikeouts, as pitchers with stuff like him should not have a sub-6 K/9.

Grade: A-

RHP Dustin McGowan (29)
0-2, 21 IP, 20 H, 15 ER, 4 HR, 13 BB, 20 K
6.43 ERA, 1.57 WHIP, 1.54 K/BB, 8.57 K/9, 1.47 GO/AO

The fact that McGowan has returned to the big leagues at all is a victory in and of itself, and as such expectations should be grounded. After missing nearly three full seasons due to a variety of injuries, McGowan managed to pitch quite well in his return. The walk rate was high, but given that command is always the last thing to return after coming back from serious arm injuries, it's unsurprising. The biggest positive for McGowan was that he maintained his strong repetoire despite the layoff. His fastball averaged 93.0 mph, and his power slider clocked in with an 86.9 mph average.

Grade: B+

RHP Kyle Drabek (23)
4-5, 78.2 IP, 87 H, 53 ER, 10 HR, 55 BB, 51 K
6.06 ERA, 1.81 WHIP, 0.93 K/BB, 5.83 K/9, 1.22 GO/AO

It's extremely difficult to say anything positive about Kyle Drabek's season. Plain and simply, he shit the bed. At the time of his demotion he led all of baseball in walks, and was one of the few pitchers with fewer strikeouts than walks. In addition to losing any semblance of command, he got hit around, and his .310 BABIP suggests hitters weren't getting lucky -- they were driving balls. Drbaek was demoted to Triple-A in June and actually pitched worse in the minor leagues. Experts are flabbergasted at Drabek's implosion, and it can only be hoped that four months away from pitching and a clean slate to start 2012 will be the cure to what ails him.

Grade: F

Top 15 Prospect Review: Pitchers

#2: RHP Kyle Drabek

(MLB) 4-5, 5.47 ERA, 1.73 WHIP, 75.2 IP, 78 H, 46 ER, 53 BB, 51 K
(AAA) 5-4, 7.44 ERA, 2.03 WHIP, 75 IP, 111 H, 62 ER, 41 BB, 45 K

2011 Breakdown:

Prospect analysts are extremely happy that Drabek surpassed the inning limit to be eligible as a rookue (and thus no longer a prospect), because after the season Drabek has had, nobody knows what to think of him. Expectations were high entering the season as the #4 starter, but after a dominant first outing of the year against the Twins, Drabek's year fell apart. He completely lost his control, abandoned his dominanting curveball, and saw himself demoted to the minors. Incredibly, things actually got worse for Drabek in Las Vegas. At this point it's hard to have confidence in Drabek as top of the rotation starter, but luckily the slate will be clean in 2012 and he can try to re-establish himself. As a former top prospect and the pitcher acquired in the Roy Halladay trade, Drabek should deservingly be given every opportunity.

2012 Prospect Status: N/A (graduated from prospect status)

#5: RHP Deck McGuire

(AA) 2-1, 4.35 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 20.2 IP, 20 H, 10 ER, 7 BB, 22 K
(A+) 7-4, 2.75 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 104.2 IP, 89 H, 32 ER, 38 BB, 102 K

2011 Breakdown:

In his first professional year, Deck McGuire cruised through the Florida State League before earning a midseason promotion to the New Hampshire Fisher Cats. McGuire suffered a leg injury 4 games into his Double-A career, forcing him to miss the remainder of the regular season. When he was drafted back in the summer of 2010, McGuire was touted as a polished pitcher with four average to above average pitches and above average command who should progress through the minors quickly. Despite the injury, McGuire's 2011 season proved he can already handle the upper minors, and should see his major league debut sooner than later. While McGuire lacks the ceiling of some of Toronto's arms, his polish is second to none among this group.

2012 Prospect Status: Rising

#7: RHP Zach Stewart

(MLB) 2-5, 4.97 ERA, 1.52 WHIP, 63.1 IP, 78 H, 35 ER, 18 BB, 44 K
(AA) 5-5, 4.20 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, 94.1 IP, 106 H, 44 ER, 27 BB, 74 K

2011 Breakdown:

After a solid albeit unspectacular 2010 season in the Eastern League, Stewart was surprisingly re-assigned there at the end of spring training. He failed to match his 2010 production, though he did pitch well enough to make his big league debut as an injury replacement. Stewart was traded to the Chicago White Sox in late July as part of the Edwin Jackson - Colby Rasmus trade, and has since burned up the remainder of his rookie eligibility. Whether Stewart will be a back end starter or reliever is still up in the air, but that determination now belongs to the White Sox.

2012 Prospect Status: N/A (graduated from prospect status, traded to CHW)

#9: RHP Aaron Sanchez

(A-) 0-1, 4.63 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 11.2 IP, 8 H, 6 ER, 8 BB, 13 K
(R) 3-2, 5.48 ERA, 1.48 WHIP, 42.2 IP, 45 H, 26 ER, 18 BB, 43 K

2011 Breakdown:

Still in short-season ball, Sanchez had a very mixed season. Similar to his debut 2010 season the strikeouts were there, but Sanchez still struggled locating the strikezone and got hit around more than you'd like to see from a prospect with stuff like he has. The biggest positive from the season was that he stayed healthy and managed to put a decent amount of professional innings on his arm, creating the possibility of a Lansing assignment next spring. The step from short-season to full-season ball is a big one for a pitcher, and Sanchez could be doing it under a big spotlight. He might be joining a Lugnuts pitching rotation that will include Noah Syndergaard and Justin Nicolino, two of Toronto's breakout arms of 2011.

2012 Prospect Status: Comparable

#10: RHP Asher Wojciechowski

(A+) 11-9, 4.70 ERA, 1.43 WHIP, 130.1 IP, 156 H, 68 ER, 31 BB, 96 K

2011 Breakdown:

Wojo had himself a bipolar 2011 season. When he was good, he was awesome. When he was bad, he didn't belong on a baseball diamond. In April, July, August, and September, Wojciechowski went 9-2 with a 2.56 ERA and 1.19 WHIP. In the middle months of May and June, he went 2-7 with a 7.81 ERA and 1.79 WHIP. Many scouts believe Wojciechowski would be better utilized as a reliever, as even though he is built like an ox (6'4", 230 lbs), he lacks a strong 3rd pitch and his fastball can flatten out when he gets tired. Wojo could split 2012 between Dunedin and New Hampshire out start in Double-A outright, but either way it's very likely he'll be moved to the bullpen late in the season unless he really starts to dominate hitters.

2012 Prospect Status: Comparable

#14: RHP Drew Hutchison

(AA) 3-0, 1.20 ERA, 0.80 WHIP, 15 IP, 10 H, 2 ER, 2 BB, 21 K
(A+) 5-3, 2.74 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, 62.1 IP, 42 H, 19 ER, 14 BB, 66 K
(A) 6-2, 2.63 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 72 IP, 68 H, 21 ER, 19 BB, 84 K

2011 Breakdown:

Drew Hutchison had the best season of any pitching prospect in the Blue Jays system, raising his status from organizational afterthought to possible top 50 in baseball. Hutch cruised all the way from Single-A Lansing up to Double-A New Hampshire, where he was eventually shut down during the Eastern League playoffs after reaching his innings limit for the season (149.1). Hutchison's season was highlighted by a first-half scoreless streak of six plus starts. His 174 strikeouts were the most of any Blue Jays farmhand this year, while his ERA (2.53), WHIP (1.04), and opposing average (.220) each ranked second.

2012 Prospect Status: Rising

#15: RHP Chad Jenkins

(AA) 5-7, 4.13 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 100.1 IP, 93 H, 46 ER, 27 BB, 74 K
(A+) 4-5, 3.07 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 67.1 IP, 71 H, 23 ER, 14 BB, 44 K

2011 Breakdown:

Jenkins improved on his debut 2010 season with his 2011 numbers, but once again failed to prove he is going to be anything more than a back of the rotation innings eater -- not that there's anything wrong with that. Jenkins is a sinkerballer which will always inhibit the number of strikeouts he will accumulate, but he continued to limit base runners (2.20 BB/9, 1.22 WHIP) which bodes well for future success. The Blue Jays have a lot of high risk arms (Morrow, McGowan, Drabek, Alvarez to an extent), so a dependable pitcher like Jenkins could definitely find a niche on this team in the future.

2012 Prospect Status: Comparable

#2: RHP Kyle Drabek

Name: Kyle Drabek
Position: Right-handed SP
Acquired: Trade with Philadelphia in December 2009 (drafted 1st round, 2006)
Opening Day age: 23
Height/weight: 6'1", 220 lbs
Best/worst tool: Curveball/command

Scouting Report:

Kyle Drabek has a lot of firepower within his 6'1" frame. The son of former Cy Young Award winner Doug Drabek, Kyle has an arsenal in his right arm can make even the most skeptical scouts impressed. Drabek features three above average fastballs: a 4-seamer capable of touching 97 mph, a low 90's 2-seamer with plus movement, and a low 90's cutter he uses to bust lefties inside. His best pitch, however, is his plus-plus spike curveball. Thrown in the low to mid 80's, Drabek's curveball falls off by 10-12 inches as it approaches home plate. That type of vertical break combined with the velocity of the pitch makes it one of the better breaking pitches around. His 5th pitch is a below average changeup that has the potential to be average but will never be a go-to pitch. Drabek's command is inconsistent at best, varying from average to below average. He profiles as a 75 walk, 150 strikeout pitcher down the road. Drabek is fiery pitcher on the mound, likely the result of constantly being challenged to live up to his father's lofty expectations. He is prone to outbursts, but is much improved in that regard since going through the humbling experience of Tommy John surgery.

2010 Stats (MiLB): 162 IP, 126 H, 53 ER, 12 HR, 68 BB, 132 K
1.63 GO/AO, 2.94 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 7.33 K/9

2010 Stats (MLB): 17 IP, 18 H, 9 ER, 2 HR, 5 BB, 12 K
3.44 GO/AO, 4.76 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 6.35 K/9

2010 Analysis:

For his first season in the Blue Jays organization, Drabek was assigned to Double-A New Hampshire. In his second year after returning from Tommy John surgery, he was consistent from month to month, and was named as the Eastern League's Pitcher of the Year in 2010. Drabek's season was highlighted by a summer no-hitter. With that being said, his strikeout rate of 7.33 is below what is typically expected of a potential top of the rotation starter.

After the Fisher Cats were eliminated from the Eastern League playoffs, Drabek was called up to Toronto in September during which he made 3 solid, albeit unspectacular starts. His strikeout rate was once again low, but he has the repetoire to improve upon that with improved command.

2011 Stats (MLB): 72.2 IP, 78 H, 46 ER, 9 HR, 52 BB, 48 K
1.20 GO/AO, 5.70 ERA, 1.79 WHIP, 5.95 K/9

2011 Stats (MiLB): 37.2 IP, 52 H, 29 ER, 6 HR, 22 BB, 27 K
1.31 GO/AO, 6.93 ERA, 1.96 WHIP, 6.45 K/9

2011 Analysis:

Drabek was named to Toronto's rotation in the spring, and due to a Brandon Morrow injury he was the #2 starter in April. He started the season strong, with a dominating 7 inning, 1 hit performance on the 2nd game of the season. After that start, however, he really began to struggle with his command, and his season went south. His struggles culminated in a demotion to Triple-A following a start against Boston in which he was knocked around for 8 runs across 4 innings.

Since his demotion, Drabek has shown some promise but has seen many of the same issues from Toronto carry over. His strikeouts are still lower than one would hope, and his command has come and gone. In 4 of his 8 starts he allowed 3 walks or less in 6 innings, however in the remaining 4 he combined to walk 16 batters in 13.2 innings. He has given up a lot of hits and home runs, but that can atleast be partially attributed to the Vegas effect (.362 BABIP).

Future outlook:

Drabek would definitely like a do-over for the 2011 season, as it's hardly gone to plan. Given the impossibility of that proposition, it can only be hoped that Drabek will try to find some positives in his 2011 season to keep his confidence up, then work in the offseason and spring on fixing the issues that gave him so many problems -- metaphorically finding his command, and literally finding his curveball. The only two starters who have a rotation spot locked up for 2012 are Romero and Morrow, so Drabek should have every opportunity to grab hold of one of the final 3 spots. As the center piece of the Roy Halladay trade, he will be given ample time to prove himself.

Perfect world projection: Front of the rotation starter on a good team with regular Cy Young votes in his prime years, if his command returns and his changeup improves.

Worst case scenario: Back of the rotation starter with flashes of brilliance but crippling inconsistency.

Most likely outcome: #3 MLB starter on a good team if his command returns.