2012 Top Prospects #6: Drew Hutchison

Name: Drew Hutchison
Position: Right-handed Pitcher
Acquired: 15th round (2009)
Opening Day age: 21
Height/weight: 6’2”/165 lbs
Best/worst tool: Command/durability
Risk factor: Low
ETA: 2012

Scouting Report

Thanks to his excellent command, Hutchison is often mislabeled as a control or finesse pitcher. In reality, that’s not the case. He certainly has great command of his three pitch repertoire, but his stuff is more than strong enough to give him mid rotation potential. The three pitch description isn’t entirely accurate, as Hutchison actually throws two fastballs. The better offering is his two-seamer, which shows excellent armside movement while sitting around 90 mph. In addition to the down-and-away sink, he also cuts the pitch to bust in on the hands of left handed batters. His four-seamer clocks higher, sitting 90-93 mph and touching 94-95 mph, but can flatten out and become very hittable if he leaves it up and over the plate. The pitches show above average and average potential, respectively, though both could improve if he bulks up his frame and adds velocity. Hutchison’s best pitch is his plus circle changeup. He has excellent arm speed on the pitch, and it has nice velocity separation from his two fastballs, sitting in the low 80’s. Similar to his two-seamer, the change has down and away armside movement. Rounding out Hutchison’s arsenal is an above average slider that flashes plus potential but lacks consistency. When it’s on, the pitch has good two plane movement and tilt, clocking in the mid 80’s. When it’s off, it gets slurvy and is closer to 80 mph. Hutchison is an intelligent pitcher who uses good sequencing and location to keep the opposition unbalanced. He works with a deceptive delivery from a low 3/4 arm slot that he repeats well. He stays closed as he readies himself, and follows through with cross body arm action that has caused concerns about his long term durability. Hutchison is athletic with a strong lower half, but looks bigger than his listed weight of 165 lbs. There’s still room to add muscle, but he’s more polished than projectable at this point.

2011 Statistics and Analysis

28 games (27 starts), 149.1 IP, 120 H, 42 ER, 4 HR, 35 BB, 171 K
14-5, 2.53 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 10.31 K/9, 4.89 K/BB, 1.33 GO/AO

An overslot signee in the 2009 draft, Hutchison finally made his full season debut after a dominant 2010 season in short season ball. The results spoke for themselves. Showing more advanced development than anyone had expected, Hutchison split the year across three different levels –- Single-A Lansing, High-A Dunedin, and Double-A New Hampshire. What makes his season even more fascinating is that, despite facing increasingly skilled competition, he lost absolutely nothing statistically. It could even be argued that he improved as he ascended the ranks of the farm system. Hutchison’s season was highlighted by a personal streak of six-plus consecutive scoreless starts that began with Lansing and concluded after his promotion to Dunedin. Hutchison’s 171 strikeouts were 1st amongst Blue Jays prospects, and had he not been shut down due to an inning limit, he could have ranked among the leaders of the entire minor leagues.

Expected 2012 Assignment: Double-A New Hampshire

Future Outlook

After putting together such a hugely successful 2011 season, many people feel Hutchison is big league ready. In short, he’s not. Hutchison pitched only 15 innings across 3 starts for Double-A, and there is still a lot he could learn at the minor league level. Towards the end of the season as he approached his inning limit, Hutchison was being held to quick 5 inning starts. He was dominant, no doubt, but part of being a starting pitcher is being able to go seven-plus innings with regularity. Beyond just the added toll of throwing 30-40 extra pitches, hitters are seeing you for a third time in the latter innings, and they’ll have made adjustments. Hutchison will need to learn to make his own adjustments, as major league hitters learn quickly. While an early season debut is almost out of the question, July or August would be a good timeline for Hutchison’s debut, as Toronto is likely to be creating some roster space around the trade deadline.

Perfect World Projection: Exceptional mid rotation starter.

Blue Jays Positional Primer: Right-handed Pitcher

Inspiration for the Blue Jays Positional Primer series comes from Jason Parks of Baseball Prospectus. Over the course of the second half of the season, Jason examined the prospects in the entire minor leagues on a position-by-position basis, giving insight into players both within and well outside the top 100 rankings.

While the sample size of one team is vastly inferior to that of the entire minor leagues, I feel Toronto has enough depth in the farm -- particularly in the low minors -- that such a series could provide some insight into prospects that Blue Jays fans aren't as familiar with as they should be. This is the seventh installment of an eight part series that will examine catcher, first base, middle infield, third base, center field, corner outfield, right handed pitcher, and left handed pitcher. The middle infield and corner outfield lists are included as there's really no such thing as a second base or left field prospect, they're just shortstops and center/right fielders who couldn't handle the defensive demands and get moved to the easier defensive position as they age. It should be noted that -- outside of the Leader of the Pack, who is the #1 for the position -- these are not necessarily progressive rankings of the prospects.

Part I -- Blue Jays Positional Primer: Catcher
Part II -- Blue Jays Positional Primer: First Base
Part III -- Blue Jays Positional Primer: Middle Infield
Part IV -- Blue Jays Positional Primer: Third Base
Part V -- Blue Jays Positional Primer: Center Field
Part VI -- Blue Jays Positional Primer: Corner Outfield
Part VIII -- Blue Jays Positional Primer: Left-handed Pitcher

Leader of the Pack

Noah Syndergaard -– 2011 teams: Rookie-class Bluefield, Low-A Vancouver, Single-A Lansing
13 games (11 starts), 59.0 IP, 46 H, 12 ER, 1 HR, 18 BB, 68 K
5-2, 1.83 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 10.37 K/9, 3.77 K/BB, 1.30 GO/AO

In only a little more than a year, Syndergaard’s prospect stock has seen one of the most dramatic rises in the entire minor leagues. Toronto’s 38th overall pick in the 2010 draft –- the selection used on Syndergaard –- was acquired through less than normal circumstances. James Paxton was selected by the Blue Jays 37th overall in 2009, but as he didn’t sign, Toronto received a compensation pick in that spot plus one (37 + 1 = 38) in the next draft. While the Paxton pick was protected, the Syndergaard pick was not, forcing Toronto to select a “safe sign”. The club chose Noah Syndergaard, which resulted in more than a few “Who?” remarks from the fan base. Most scouting reports said something along the lines of “big Texan with tons of projectibility, but is likely years away from reaching it”. They got the first part correct, but it appears they swung and missed on the second. Only 19 years old, Syndergaard has already pitched in four different leagues, from the Gulf Coast League all the way to the Midwest League late last season. The fact he will be ready for a full season assignment at age 19 is incredible.

Armed with the best fastball in Toronto’s system, Syndergaard’s pure stuff has improved by leaps and bounds since being drafted. Consistently sitting in the low 90’s and touching 95 in highschool, Syndergaard now finds himself working almost exclusively in the mid 90’s, with the occasional 97-98 appearing on the scoreboard. There were reports of a 102 mph pitch, but that appears to be a case of a juiced stadium gun. He is working on two offspeed pitches -– a changeup and curveball -– and while they both show potential, they’re well behind his fastball in terms of polish and consistency. His fastball alone could decimate the low minors, but if he wants to find continued success upwards from Lansing, they’ll need to keep developing. One of Syndergaard’s more impressive traits is his mental strength. His mound presence is off the charts, as he keeps his head cool when times are tough but also isn’t afraid to show some fire when he gets a big out. Noah has an incredible work ethic, always trying to do what he can to better himself. That work ethic paid off in 2010 getting him the attention of amateur scouts, and again in 2011 as his repertoire improved and he soared up prospect charts. With a full offseason to get prepared for 2012, it will be interesting to see what Synder has in store for next season.

High Riser

Drew Hutchison -– 2011 teams: Single-A Lansing, High-A Dunedin, Double-A New Hampshire
28 games (27 starts), 149.1 IP, 120 H, 42 ER, 4 HR, 35 BB, 171 K
14-5, 2.53 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 10.31 K/9, 4.89 K/BB, 1.33 GO/AO

In terms of minor league levels, no player in Toronto’s system was a higher riser during the 2011 season than Drew Hutchison. Hutch was a lanky 15th round pick in 2009, but has pitched well above his draft status the past two seasons. Hutchison began the year with Single-A Lansing, and after 14 exceptional starts he received a well-earned promotion to the High-A Dunedin club. The Dunedin stop was a short one, as Hutch continued his success from Single-A and dominated Florida State League hitters for 10 starts before earning a late season promotion to Double-A New Hampshire –- a huge step for any pitcher. Unsurprisingly, Hutchison kept the ball rolling in his 3 Double-A Starts, but shut down just prior to the playoffs. Hutch had reaching his inning limit for the season (Toronto had targeted 150), and was forced to sit and watch his teammates win the Eastern League title. While his team winning the EL Championship was probably his most treasured achievement of the year, his personal streak of six-plus consecutive scoreless starts between Lansing and Dunedin was incredible.

Hutchison’s pure stuff is behind that of Noah Syndergaard which limits his ceiling, but his skinny 6’2” frame can still get some solid oomph on his fastball. Hutch works mostly in the low 90’s, but his fastball has good life and he can reach back for 94 or 95 mph when he really needs it. His slider has made great strides and flashes plus ability at times, but Hutchison is still too inconsistent with the pitch. While the slider works well against right handed opponents, he uses his third pitch, a changeup, to get lefties out. It’s still a relatively new pitch to Hutchison and is most definitely a work in progress, but it could be an above average pitch down the line if he works on developing it as hard as he worked on his fastball and slider. Hutchison has excellent command and, like most of Toronto’s top pitching prospects, he is very proficient at inducing ground balls. Strikeouts are another commonality among the Blue Jays prospects, and Hutchison led the entire system in that category in 2011 with 171. Single-A to Double-A is a big leap to make in one year, but Hutch could be facing an even bigger one in 2012 –- Double-A to the majors.

The Question Mark

Aaron Sanchez -– 2011 teams: Rookie-class Bluefield, Low-A Vancouver
14 games (9 starts), 54.1 IP, 53 H, 32 ER, 4 HR, 26 BB, 56 K
3-3, 5.30 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, 9.28 K/9, 2.15 K/BB, 1.60 GO/AO

Of the six pitchers on this list, Sanchez had the least statistical success in 2011, due in part to his questionable command. Sanchez was a member of the quartet of right handed pitchers acquired by Toronto prior to the second round in the 2010 draft, alongside Deck McGuire, Noah Syndergaard, and Asher Wojciechowski. He signed early enough to get into 10 games for Toronto’s short season affiliates with very mixed results. The overpowering stuff was there –- 37 strikeouts in 25 innings with a GO/AO ratio approaching 3. The command, however, was not –- 17 walks in those 25 innings. The biggest thing for Sanchez at this point in his career is getting innings under his belt and building arm strength, as many of his command issues can be attributed to inconsistent pitching mechanics. Repetition will smooth out the kinks. As the old adage goes, practice makes perfect.

Sanchez is still just a kid at 19 years old, and given how he should continue to fill in and bulk up his extremely projectible 6’4” frame, it’s very exciting that he’s already throwing his fastball in the low 90’s. It’s very possible he has another 2-3 mph hidden inside which, when combined with natural run and sink, would make an absolutely devastating plus (possibly plus-plus) pitch. Like most pitchers on this list, Sanchez throws two offspeed pitches, a changeup and a breaking ball. His changeup is a definite work in progress, as he rarely used it in high school and still only throws a few every outing in the low minors. For a breaking ball, Sanchez throws a straight curve with plus potential. It’s more of a slow loopy curveball than a hard spike curveball, but as he cleans up his delivery and builds arm strength it could become crisper. After two seasons in short season ball, it’s likely time for Sanchez to make the move to full season ball with Single-A Lansing. 120 innings (24 starts at 5 innings per) during the 2012 season would be a fair target.

The Bullpen Guy

John Stilson –- N/A

The first 2011 draftee on the right handed pitcher list is the guy most likely to end up in a bullpen down the road. Stilson was a third round pick in the aforementioned 2011 draft, but if not for a serious shoulder injury, he was a guaranteed first round pick. Toronto took a gamble, but managed to sign him to a fair deal –- 0.5M. Stilson worked as both a starter and a reliever in college after playing shortstop in high school, but his delivery is so violent it was likely he would be forced to the bullpen even if he were healthy. The labrum injury only further cements his future. Texas A&M, his college team, has a long history of mistreating young arms, so Toronto can only hope that getting him out of that system and into organized ball will allow his health to return. Stilson has yet to play for any of Toronto’s affiliates, and a lot of question marks remain about whether he’ll even be ready for the start of the 2012 season.

In terms of pitch arsenal, it’s obvious why Stilson was regarded so highly, even if he’s a future reliever. His go-to pitch is a four-seam fastball that sits 92-95 when starting but consistently reaches the high 90’s out of the bullpen. He features three offspeed pitches, another reason why teams may have dreamed on Stilson as a starter. His circle changeup is the best of the bunch, an excellent offering that fades down and away from left handers. He also throws a slider and a curveball with varying degrees of success, but both are significantly behind his fastball and changeup in terms of polish. If the bullpen move is permanent, however, Stilson will have the opportunity to scrap one offering and focus on the other, becoming a deadly fastball/change/breaking ball closer. It’s impossible to project Stilson in the near future, but hopefully some more news regarding his health will begin to circulate once pitchers and catcher report to Spring Training in early February. If his shoulder is feeling good, he could easily start the season in High-A Dunedin or possibly even Double-A New Hampshire.

Remember the Name

Joseph Musgrove -– 2011 teams: Gulf Coast Blue Jays, Rookie-class Bluefield
9 games (7 starts), 24.2 IP, 19 H, 11 ER, 1 HR, 5 BB, 18 K
1-1, 4.01 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, 6.57 K/9, 3.60 K/BB, 1.72 GO/AO

Joe Musgrove has the rare honor of being the first player from the entire 2011 draft to sign with his team, which is even more impressive when considering his 46th overall selection. Musgrove signed for 0.5M, which is below slot recommendation for the 46th overall pick, but it allowed his contract to move quickly through the Commissioner’s Office and get his professional career started. Nearly 25 innings across two levels in your draft year is an excellent way to keep your major league aspirations on track. Musgrove is an imposing guy, standing 6’5” and weighing over 230 lbs. He immediately gives the impression of a workhorse type of pitcher, and in reality that’s exactly what he is. With a smooth and easy delivery working alongside unquestionable stamina, Musgrove has all the basics required for a reliable 200+ inning starting pitcher.

In terms of stuff, Musgrove has an intriguing fastball but little else developed. His fastball is more of a sinker than a true four-seamer, as it works on a downward plane to create a heaviness that makes the ball difficult to get under. The pitch sits in the low 90’s, but has been clocked as high as 98 mph in the past. Like most high school pitchers, Musgrove also throws a changeup and a breaking ball, but both have a long way to go before being assets. For pitchers with good fastballs like Musgrove, there’s little reason to develop offspeed pitches in high school, as they can blow the hitters away with the catcher simply putting one finger down over and over. His changeup sits in the mid 70’s, which is a bit concerning as 12 mph is usually the biggest gap you want between your fastball and your changeup. Musgrove is sitting at around 16 or 17 mph of separation, which is something that will need to be remedied. His breaking ball is a high 70’s to low 80’s curveball with sharp break. Musgrove finished the year with Bluefield, but he seems to be the type of guy who could skip straight to Single-A Lansing and give the team 120 innings without too much risk of injury. Otherwise, he’ll be yet another powerful arm fuelling the playoff hopes of Toronto’s short season affiliates.

Dream on Me

Adonys Cardona –- 2011 team: Gulf Coast Blue Jays
10 games (7 starts), 31.2 IP, 31 H, 16 ER, 2 HR, 12 BB, 35 K
1-3, 4.55 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, 9.94 K/9, 2.92 K/BB, 1.86 GO/AO

The sixth and final pitcher on the list is Adonys Cardona, Toronto’s prized International Free Agent of the 2010 season. Cardona agreed to terms with the Blue Jays with a contract that would make him the highest paid Venezuelan IFA in history, receiving 2.8M from the club. Not turning 18 until later this month, there are already some major discrepancies regarding Cardona’s height and weight. Multiple outlets, including Baseball America, have Cardona listed at 6’4” and 180 lbs. Some others, such as MILB.com, list him at 6’1” and 170 lbs. Neither have a date recording when the measurements were made so it's impossible to know his true stature without seeing him in person, but with either build it’s quite obvious he’s very lean and possesses a ton of projectibility. By the time he’s 22 years old, he could add 2-3 inches and 20-30 lbs to his frame, and Toronto’s front office can only hope that further augments his power arsenal. Cardona also has genetics on his side, as his father is a former professional baseball player who spent time in the minor leagues.

Cardona threw his fastball in the high 80’s to low 90’s at age 16, and at the time of his signing Baseball America felt that after he has finished maturing physically, it should be at least a plus pitch capable of capable of sitting in the mid 90’s. Cardona has shown some potential with a changeup, but unsurprisingly it’s still very raw and has a long way to go before it becomes an out pitch. Working on his side, however, is that from top to bottom Toronto is one of the best organizations when it comes to developing changeups. The club values the pitch very highly, as it’s effective against the opposite swinging batter and is one of the few pitches that have little negative effect on a young arm. Cardona’s primary breaking ball is a 12-6 curveball, but it’s presently a below average pitch. When he snaps it off well it shows good break, but he’s far too inconsistent with it. Regardless, it’s very rare for any teenager to have good feel for their breaking ball, so Cardona has plenty of time to figure it out. Beyond the impressive statistics, but I liked most about Cardona’s debut season is that he skipped the DSL altogether and was assigned straight to the Gulf Coast League, an indication that Toronto has no intentions of babying their young phenom.

Minor League Pitcher of the Year

With the minor league seasons having reached completion, it is time to determine the Blue Jays minor league players of the year -- both hitter and pitcher. Unlike previous years, there are a wealth of candidates for these awards thanks to the overall depth of the farm system. In addition to the shear number of prospects, many of the high upside prospects had big years, causing the farm to look even better.

The candidates:

RHP Drew Hutchison, Double-A New Hampshire
14-5, 149.1 IP, 120 H, 42 ER, 4 HR, 35 BB, 171 K
2.53 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 4.89 K/BB, 10.31 K/9, 1.33 GO/AO

In terms of both tools and numbers, Hutchison took more of a step forward than any other pitcher in the Blue Jays system. The former 15th round pick had a strong debut season in the low minor leagues in 2010, but exploded onto the scene in 2011. The vast statistical improvements were driven by an upgraded pitch arsenal. Hutchison added significant velocity to his fastball, up to the 91-95 mph range after sitting in the high 80's previously. Additionally, both of his off-speed pitches (slider, changeup) made strides, with Hutch showing an ability to locate them for called strikes or make hitters look foolish on swings and misses out of the zone. Hutchison had no issues with the long ball. Due to the strong movement on his pitches and plus command, he allowed only 4 home runs in nearly 150 innings. Hutchison's season was highlighted by a streak of six-plus scoreless starts, which drove his promotion to Dunedin. He continued his mastery in High-A before earning a late season promotion to Double-A where he made three dominating starts before being shut down due to his inning limit.

RHP Nestor Molina, Double-A New Hampshire
12-3, 130.1 IP, 114 H, 32 ER, 8 HR, 16 BB, 148 K
2.21 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 9.25 K/BB, 10.22 K/9, 1.43 GO/AO

The second candidate is Nestor Molina, and like Hutchison, he too climbed multiple levels during the season before finishing with New Hampshire. Molina's success was driven by a combination of his impeccable control (1.10 BB/9) and a devastating changeup which makes up for his average fastball. Similar to most young Blue Jays starters, Molina carried an innings limit throughout much of the year, which resulted in a lot of quick 5 innings starts. Despite those restrictions holding him to only 130 innings, Molina still finished 3rd in the entire Blue Jays system with 148 strikeouts, behind only Drew Hutchison (171) and Joel Carreno (152). Next year will be a big test for Molina, as it is probable he will see his innings restriction lifted. More innings will result in more exposure and more lineups seeing him for a 3rd time during his starts. It will be important for Molina to futher develop his breaking pitch.

RHP Deck McGuire, Double-A New Hampshire
9-5, 125.1 IP, 109 H, 42 ER, 13 HR, 45 BB, 124 K
3.02 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 2.76 K/BB, 8.90 K/9, 0.86 GO/AO

The Blue Jays 2010 first round pick had a successful debut season. Despite his polish, he was assigned to High-A Dunedin out of spring training and cut Florida State League hitters apart. In late July he received a well deserved promotion to join a loaded Fisher Cats pitching staff, but unfortunately was hit by a line drive in his August 7th start which forced him to the minor league disabled list for the rest of the month. His Double-A numbers were not on par with his High-A numbers, with the biggest issue being home runs. In 104.2 innings with Dunedin, McGuire allowed 9 home runs. In only 20.2 innings with the Cats, he allowed 4 home runs. This was likely a combination of small sample size and an adjustment period to a new level, but it will be something to monitor when he spends most of his 2012 season with New Hampshire.

The winner:

In addition to having arguably the best statistical season, Drew Hutchison took the biggest developmental strides, all while advancing through three levels in the Blue Jays minor league system. For these reason, Hutch is Toronto's Minor League Pitcher of the Year. He entered the year under the radar of most, but 2012 will be a much different story. The spotlight is now focused on him, and Hutchison must prove that this year was no fluke by continuing his success over a full year in Double-A with the pressure of a possible major league callup hanging over him.

The Minor League Hitter of the Year can be found here.

Top 15 Prospect Review: Pitchers

#2: RHP Kyle Drabek

(MLB) 4-5, 5.47 ERA, 1.73 WHIP, 75.2 IP, 78 H, 46 ER, 53 BB, 51 K
(AAA) 5-4, 7.44 ERA, 2.03 WHIP, 75 IP, 111 H, 62 ER, 41 BB, 45 K

2011 Breakdown:

Prospect analysts are extremely happy that Drabek surpassed the inning limit to be eligible as a rookue (and thus no longer a prospect), because after the season Drabek has had, nobody knows what to think of him. Expectations were high entering the season as the #4 starter, but after a dominant first outing of the year against the Twins, Drabek's year fell apart. He completely lost his control, abandoned his dominanting curveball, and saw himself demoted to the minors. Incredibly, things actually got worse for Drabek in Las Vegas. At this point it's hard to have confidence in Drabek as top of the rotation starter, but luckily the slate will be clean in 2012 and he can try to re-establish himself. As a former top prospect and the pitcher acquired in the Roy Halladay trade, Drabek should deservingly be given every opportunity.

2012 Prospect Status: N/A (graduated from prospect status)

#5: RHP Deck McGuire

(AA) 2-1, 4.35 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 20.2 IP, 20 H, 10 ER, 7 BB, 22 K
(A+) 7-4, 2.75 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 104.2 IP, 89 H, 32 ER, 38 BB, 102 K

2011 Breakdown:

In his first professional year, Deck McGuire cruised through the Florida State League before earning a midseason promotion to the New Hampshire Fisher Cats. McGuire suffered a leg injury 4 games into his Double-A career, forcing him to miss the remainder of the regular season. When he was drafted back in the summer of 2010, McGuire was touted as a polished pitcher with four average to above average pitches and above average command who should progress through the minors quickly. Despite the injury, McGuire's 2011 season proved he can already handle the upper minors, and should see his major league debut sooner than later. While McGuire lacks the ceiling of some of Toronto's arms, his polish is second to none among this group.

2012 Prospect Status: Rising

#7: RHP Zach Stewart

(MLB) 2-5, 4.97 ERA, 1.52 WHIP, 63.1 IP, 78 H, 35 ER, 18 BB, 44 K
(AA) 5-5, 4.20 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, 94.1 IP, 106 H, 44 ER, 27 BB, 74 K

2011 Breakdown:

After a solid albeit unspectacular 2010 season in the Eastern League, Stewart was surprisingly re-assigned there at the end of spring training. He failed to match his 2010 production, though he did pitch well enough to make his big league debut as an injury replacement. Stewart was traded to the Chicago White Sox in late July as part of the Edwin Jackson - Colby Rasmus trade, and has since burned up the remainder of his rookie eligibility. Whether Stewart will be a back end starter or reliever is still up in the air, but that determination now belongs to the White Sox.

2012 Prospect Status: N/A (graduated from prospect status, traded to CHW)

#9: RHP Aaron Sanchez

(A-) 0-1, 4.63 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 11.2 IP, 8 H, 6 ER, 8 BB, 13 K
(R) 3-2, 5.48 ERA, 1.48 WHIP, 42.2 IP, 45 H, 26 ER, 18 BB, 43 K

2011 Breakdown:

Still in short-season ball, Sanchez had a very mixed season. Similar to his debut 2010 season the strikeouts were there, but Sanchez still struggled locating the strikezone and got hit around more than you'd like to see from a prospect with stuff like he has. The biggest positive from the season was that he stayed healthy and managed to put a decent amount of professional innings on his arm, creating the possibility of a Lansing assignment next spring. The step from short-season to full-season ball is a big one for a pitcher, and Sanchez could be doing it under a big spotlight. He might be joining a Lugnuts pitching rotation that will include Noah Syndergaard and Justin Nicolino, two of Toronto's breakout arms of 2011.

2012 Prospect Status: Comparable

#10: RHP Asher Wojciechowski

(A+) 11-9, 4.70 ERA, 1.43 WHIP, 130.1 IP, 156 H, 68 ER, 31 BB, 96 K

2011 Breakdown:

Wojo had himself a bipolar 2011 season. When he was good, he was awesome. When he was bad, he didn't belong on a baseball diamond. In April, July, August, and September, Wojciechowski went 9-2 with a 2.56 ERA and 1.19 WHIP. In the middle months of May and June, he went 2-7 with a 7.81 ERA and 1.79 WHIP. Many scouts believe Wojciechowski would be better utilized as a reliever, as even though he is built like an ox (6'4", 230 lbs), he lacks a strong 3rd pitch and his fastball can flatten out when he gets tired. Wojo could split 2012 between Dunedin and New Hampshire out start in Double-A outright, but either way it's very likely he'll be moved to the bullpen late in the season unless he really starts to dominate hitters.

2012 Prospect Status: Comparable

#14: RHP Drew Hutchison

(AA) 3-0, 1.20 ERA, 0.80 WHIP, 15 IP, 10 H, 2 ER, 2 BB, 21 K
(A+) 5-3, 2.74 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, 62.1 IP, 42 H, 19 ER, 14 BB, 66 K
(A) 6-2, 2.63 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 72 IP, 68 H, 21 ER, 19 BB, 84 K

2011 Breakdown:

Drew Hutchison had the best season of any pitching prospect in the Blue Jays system, raising his status from organizational afterthought to possible top 50 in baseball. Hutch cruised all the way from Single-A Lansing up to Double-A New Hampshire, where he was eventually shut down during the Eastern League playoffs after reaching his innings limit for the season (149.1). Hutchison's season was highlighted by a first-half scoreless streak of six plus starts. His 174 strikeouts were the most of any Blue Jays farmhand this year, while his ERA (2.53), WHIP (1.04), and opposing average (.220) each ranked second.

2012 Prospect Status: Rising

#15: RHP Chad Jenkins

(AA) 5-7, 4.13 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 100.1 IP, 93 H, 46 ER, 27 BB, 74 K
(A+) 4-5, 3.07 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 67.1 IP, 71 H, 23 ER, 14 BB, 44 K

2011 Breakdown:

Jenkins improved on his debut 2010 season with his 2011 numbers, but once again failed to prove he is going to be anything more than a back of the rotation innings eater -- not that there's anything wrong with that. Jenkins is a sinkerballer which will always inhibit the number of strikeouts he will accumulate, but he continued to limit base runners (2.20 BB/9, 1.22 WHIP) which bodes well for future success. The Blue Jays have a lot of high risk arms (Morrow, McGowan, Drabek, Alvarez to an extent), so a dependable pitcher like Jenkins could definitely find a niche on this team in the future.

2012 Prospect Status: Comparable

Blue Jays Prospect Hot Sheet: Aug 19-28

As I mentioned in the last edition, Hypocritical Sports Fan will be running a regular Blue Jays Prospect Hot Sheet. The list is a representation of the hottest 5 or so players in the Blue Jays farm system over a 10 day period, with the player pool consisting of my personal Top 40 prospect list.

This edition will be for the games spanning from (and including) August 19th to August 28th.

1. CF Jacob Anderson, GCL Blue Jays
.500/.551/.692 (1.243 OPS), 2 2B, 1 HR, 4 RBI, 1 SB, 3/4 BB/K

Anderson, the first positional player drafted by Toronto this past June, has seen his professional career get off to a scorching start. As a late signee, Anderson has only played 9 games in the Gulf Coast League so far this year, but is already showing he could be ready for a Bluefield or Vancouver assignment to begin next year. The above stat line was accumulated in only 7 games (6 of which were multi-hit efforts), which makes Anderson taking the #1 spot even more impressive. Jacob Anderson is a big guy at 6'4", and given his age (he won't turn 19 until late November) it's likely he will move to a corner outfield position down the road as he continues to mature physically. Anderson even played some first base for his highschool team because of his size and the fact they were so rich in atheltic outfielders. Regardless, Toronto will likely give him every opportunity to prove he can stay in centerfield as his value is much higher there.

2. RHP Drew Hutchison, Double-A New Hampshire
2-0, 10 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 3 BB, 13 K

Coming into the season I had ranked Hutchison as my #14 prospect in the system and thought myself rather bold in doing so. Since then, Hutch has torn the minor leagues apart, moving all the way from Single-A Lansing up to Double-A New Hampshire. Hutchison made two starts from August 19th to 28th, the first being his last with Dunedin, and the second being his debut with New Hampshire. Unsurprisingly, Hutchison met the challenge and excelled, posting two impressive pitching lines that total the above numbers. Hutch snuck into some midseason Top-50 prospect lists, and given his impressive second half numbers, I expect his name will pepper the top half of Top-100 lists this winter. Drew has established himself as one of Toronto's top-5 prospects entering 2012.

3. CF Jake Marisnick, Single-A Lansing
.378/.439/.595 (1.034 OPS), 5 2B, 1 HR, 5 RBI, 3 SB, 3/4 BB/K

Perhaps Toronto's most well rounded positional prospect, Jake Marisnick had one of those weeks. In his 9 games, Marisnick had multiple hits 6 times and atleast 1 extra base hit or stolen base 6 times. His best game during this time frame was August 26th, in which he went 3 for 4 with 2 doubles, 1 home run, and 2 runs scored. Along with the aformentioned Drew Hutchison, Marisnick has been one of Toronto's biggest stories in the minor leagues this year. Now up to a .323/.396/.500 (.896), 26 2B, 6 3B, 13 HR, 76 RBI, 35 SB, 43/84 BB/K line on the year, the 20 year old Marisnick has established himself as a blue chip prospect and should meet the 2012 challenge of Dunedin with a lot of confidence.

4. RHP Chad Jenkins, Double-A New Hampshire
0-2, 13.2 IP, 8 H, 5 ER, 0 BB, 14 K

While the 0-2 record and 3.29 ERA don't seem worthy of a hot sheet, it's Jenkins' other numbers that show how dominant he was in late August. Jenkins held hitters to a sub-.200 batting average and walked no one, good for an impressive 0.59 WHIP. After posting rather mediocre numbers through his first two Double-A months (June and July), Jenkins came on strong in August with a 3.06 ERA, 0.93 WHIP, 3.71 K/BB, and 7.24 K/9. While he lacks the upside of many of Toronto's other pitching prospects, Jenkins has gotten hot at the right time, inspiring some confidence from the front office, which should help him achieve his big league dreams at some point in 2012.

5. CF Anthony Gose, Double-A New Hampshire
.250/.386/.528 (.914 OPS), 2 2B, 1 3B, 2 HR, 5 RBI, 11 SB, 6/10 BB/K

To say that Anthony Gose has been on a base stealing tear would be an understatement. From August 19th to 28th, Gose went 11/11, bringing his cumulative August total to 17/17. What has been equally impressive has been Gose's power development, as his 5 extra base hits during this time period bring him up to 11 for the month (5 2B, 1 3B, 5 HR). His biggest problem this year, which is emphasized nicely in this sample, is strikeouts. Gose struck out 10 times during these 10 games, bringing his season total up to 143 strikeouts in 130 games. Despite hitting only .250 here, Gose made his hits count.

6. LF Christopher Hawkins, Rookie-class Bluefield
.424/.500/.545 (1.045 OPS), 4 2B, 0 HR, 8 RBI, 2 SB, 6/6 BB/K

Toronto's outfield depth shouldn't be questioned any time soon. Hawkins is the 4th outfielder to make this hot sheet, and is the first prospect to appear on consecutive lists. Hawkins made the sheet once again through consistency, as he had at least a hit in 9 of his 10 games. The only game in which he did not record a hit was a pinch hitting appearance, where he walked. Amazingly, in his 9 starts, he reached base two or more times in every game. While he hasn't shown the extra base power that his hot list counterparts have, Hawkins has found continued success this year by taking what he is given and knocking the ball around the park. If "clutch" could be measured, Hawkins' 1.140 OPS with runners on and 1.033 OPS with runners in scoring position might suggest he has a some in him.

#14: RHP Drew Hutchison

Name: Andrew Hutchison
Position: Right-handed SP
Acquired: 15th round (2009)
Opening Day age: 20
Height/weight: 6'2", 165 lbs
Best/worst tool: Fastball/size

Scouting Report: Hutchison primarily features three pitches which have developed nicely since being drafted in 2009. His fastball, which was clocked at 88-92 mph in highschool, now consistently checks in at 92-95 mph. He throws it effectively to both right handers and left handers. Hutchison's secondary offerings have been works in progress, but have both made strides in the past year. In addition to his fastball gaining velocity as Hutchison got bigger, his slider has been augmented as well. His slider sat in the low 80's, but now is being fired in the mid-to-high 80's and has the potential to be a devastating pitch if he can harness it consistently. Hutchison throws his solid changeup with confidence both within and outside the zone, playing it against his fastball effectively.

2010 Stats: 68.2 IP, 51 H, 19 ER, 2 HR, 19 BB, 63 K
1.60 GO/AO, 2.49 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 8.26 K/9

2010 Analysis: The 2010 season was Hutchison's first, and he began in the New York - Penn League with Auburn. He made 10 starts, pitching effectively and earning a promotion to A-class Lansing in the summer. He pitched just as well in Lansing, perhaps even better. His success in the low minors is not surprising given his polish for a highschool pitcher, however his slider may be the determining factor in whether or not he can carry that success into the high minors.

Future outlook: Hutchison has no major flaws or concerns to be corrected. Hutchison just needs to focus on developing his pitches and perhaps getting stronger. He's still a skinny guy at 165 lbs, and if he bulks up to even 180 lbs his fastball could become a truly devastating pitch. The development of his slider should keep him in the rotation wherever he pitches and may be the determining factor as to whether or not he can reach the major leagues.

Perfect world projection: Solid #3 starter, in the mold of a right handed Brett Cecil, if he can make his slider more than a show-me pitch.

Worst case scenario: Fizzles out in the high minors because he failed to develop a satisfactory 3rd pitch.

Most likely outcome: Borderline #3/#4 starter. Hutchison is a smart pitcher and I have a lot of faith in his slider moving forward. He is the kind of guy who should realize his ceiling barring a devastating injury.

Drew Hutchison has started the 2011 season as the #2 starter with Lansing. Given his success there in 2010 and his dominant 2011 debut (7 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 11 K), he likely won't be there long. He'll likely spend most of his season with High-A Dunedin, and could reach the majors in the second half of 2013.