Inspiration for the Blue Jays Positional Primer series comes from Jason Parks of Baseball Prospectus. Over the course of the second half of the season, Jason examined the prospects in the entire minor leagues on a position-by-position basis, giving insight into players both within and well outside the top 100 rankings.
While the sample size of one team is vastly inferior to that of the entire minor leagues, I feel Toronto has enough depth in the farm -- particularly in the low minors -- that such a series could provide some insight into prospects that Blue Jays fans aren't as familiar with as they should be. This is the fifth installment of an eight part series that will examine catcher, first base, middle infield, third base, center field, corner outfield, right handed pitcher, and left handed pitcher. The middle infield and corner outfield lists are included as there's really no such thing as a second base or left field prospect, they're just shortstops and center/right fielders who couldn't handle the defensive demands and get moved to the easier defensive position as they age. It should be noted that -- outside of the Leader of the Pack, who is the #1 for the position -- these are not necessarily progressive rankings of the prospects.
Part I --
Blue Jays Positional Primer: CatcherPart II --
Blue Jays Positional Primer: First BasePart III --
Blue Jays Positional Primer: Middle InfieldPart IV --
Blue Jays Positional Primer: Third BasePart VI --
Blue Jays Positional Primer: Corner OutfieldPart VII --
Blue Jays Positional Primer: Right-handed PitcherPart VIII --
Blue Jays Positional Primer: Left-handed PitcherLeader of the PackJake Marisnick -– 2011 team: Single-A Lansing
462 AB, .320/.392/.496 (.888 OPS), 27 2B, 6 3B, 14 HR, 77 RBI, 37 SB, 43/91 BB/K
A year ago, I ranked Jake Marisnick as the 11th best prospect in Toronto’s system, 6th among positional players. Things have changed drastically since last spring. Marisnick was a 3rd round pick in a very memorable 2009 draft for the Blue Jays. Despite being the fifth highest player Toronto drafted, he was the second highest to sign, behind only 1st round pick Chad Jenkins. The three pitchers drafted between the two all went unsigned. Marisnick agreed to terms on the day of the signing deadline, receiving a well over-slot bonus of 1.0M. In an otherwise rather uninspiring haul for the Blue Jays, Marisnick was a gem.
With such a late agreement, Marisnick wasn’t able to suit up for Toronto until the 2010 season, where he debuted with the Gulf Coast Blue Jays. The placement lacked aggression, and Marisnick cleaned up the league full of pitchers below his talent and development level, hitting .287/.373/.459 (.832) with 15 extra base hits and 14 stolen bases in 35 games. The front office took the hint and promoted him – but perhaps too far. Marisnick skipped two levels – Rookie and Low-A – instead moving straight into Single-A with the Lansing Lugnuts. He struggled to make adjustments, hitting .220/.298/.339 (.636) in 34 games, compiling a disappointing 9/37 walk to strikeout ratio.
Marisnick possesses a tool-set that scouts drool over, and used those tools to put together one of the most impressive all-around seasons of any position player in the low minors. He showcased his power (47 extra base hits), bat (.320 batting average), plate discipline (43 walks), and speed (37 stolen bases) while playing impressive defense in centerfield despite his large frame – 6’4”, 200 lbs. He may eventually be forced to right field, as at only 20 years old he could continue to grow and his arm would more than suffice, but such a transition would likely occur as he approaches the major leagues. Marisnick should open next season with the Dunedin Blue Jays, but could easily play himself into Double-A by midseason. Players who can both hit and play effective center field are few and far between, and Marisnick is one of the best in the minor leagues.
The Question MarkAnthony Gose -– 2011 team: Double-A New Hampshire
509 AB, .253/.349/.415 (.763 OPS), 20 2B, 7 3B, 16 HR, 59 RBI, 70 SB, 62/154 BB/K
I’ve been torn back and forth between Marisnick and Anthony Gose over who is the better prospect, but the alarming number of questions about Gose’s bat forces him down. Gose was drafted by the Philadelphia Phillies in the 2nd round of the 2008 draft, and played parts of three seasons for them before being swapped to Toronto, via Houston, in the Roy Oswalt trade two summers ago. It was later revealed that Alex Anthopolous attempted to acquired Gose as part of the Roy Halladay trade, but at the time Philadelphia was uninterested in moving him – though Travis d’Arnaud turned into a pretty good third piece anyways.
Anthony Gose is a very rare player in that he has arguably three 80 level tools. His arm is an 80 in center field, as he was both a pitcher and fielder in high school and touched 95 mph off the mound. His speed is an 80 as well, which is evident by his 70 stolen bases in 2011 and his career-best 76 stolen bases in 2009. His glove is his third best tool, and even on his bad days he still looks like a 70 caliber talent in center. The tools that have always held Gose back from top prospect status were his power and his bat. His power has made huge strides over the last few seasons, as he went from 35 (24/9/2) extra base hits in 2009 to 40 (20/13/7) in 2010 to 43 (20/7/16) in 2011. His bat, on the other hand, has shown minimal improvement. Despite an improving his walk rate (35 BB in 2009, 45 BB in 2010, 62 BB in 2011), his batting average has remained consistently low (.250-.260 range), while his strikeout rate has actually worsened (110 K in 2009, 132 K in 2010, 154 K in 2011). While his power has improved from a 30 tool at the time of his draft to a 50 tool at present, his bat tool hasn’t budged from a mediocre 40.
The biggest advantage he has on his side is age. Gose just finished a full season at Double-A, and only turned 21 years old in August. He’s roughly two years younger than his peers, and even if he repeats the Double-A or Triple-A level, he could still be in the majors before his 23rd birthday. From Toronto’s perspective, they have no reason to rush Gose and force him to the majors before he’s ready due to the presence of former top prospect Colby Rasmus in the Rogers Center outfield. As I mentioned, it’s possible Gose could find himself back in Double-A next season, but it’s far more likely he’ll get the pleasure of hitting in the launching pad that is Las Vegas. While the power and batting numbers are sure to increase simply due to the environment, one thing to keep an eye on is strikeouts, as they may be the best indicator as to whether or not he’s figuring it out. His work ethic certainly can’t be questioned, however, as after playing 145 games (including playoffs) in Double-A and 29 games in the Arizona Fall League, he’s continuing to work in the Venezuelan Winter League.
Remember the Name(s)Jacob Anderson –- 2011 team: Gulf Coast Blue Jays
37 AB, .405/.476/.622 (1.098 OPS), 2 2B, 0 3B, 2 HR, 7 RBI, 2 SB, 4/8 BB/K
The first of two 2011 draftees in the
Remember the Name section, Jacob Anderson was the highest drafted player to sign with Toronto after Tyler Beede chose college over professional baseball, receiving a slightly-above slot bonus of 0.99M. Anderson played a lot of first base in high school, but that was due to a situation where the team had too many outfielders and too few infielders, and his bat was capable of playing at first base. Due to his size (6'4", 190 lbs) he best profiles as a corner outfielder long-term, but for the time being it appears Toronto will give him a chance to play center and deal with moving him at a later date.
The now 19 year old Anderson only got into 9 games with the Gulf Coast Blue Jays in August, but showed off the tools that made him a supplemental-first round pick. Anderson's best tool is his power, as he was rated as one of the best power hitters of his draft class. He has quick hips, a ton of bat speed, and a smooth swing, which allows him to generate power without having to rely upon an uppercut. A true plus tool. Uppercuts can often hinder the development of the bat tool, but Anderson should be able to avoid such a fate. He sets himself quickly and his timing mechanism (a toe tap with his front foot) is very simple, which should keep him consistent at the plate. Anderson has plus athleticism (9 triples, 24 stolen bases in his final high school season), which is a dimension of his game that was wasted at first base. He shows some hesitancy when the ball is coming towards him both in the infield and outfield, possibly limiting his defensive ceiling unless he can get past this quirk. His arm strength is average while his accuracy is a tick above average, so if he moves to a corner, he might be better suited to left than right.
A great video of Jacob Anderson can be found here, via the awesome guys over at
Jays Journal.
After such a strong offensive showing in his short season debut, it's possible Anderson could be challenged with a Single-A Lansing assignment out of the spring, as it would be a similar path to what top prospect Jake Marisnick has followed. The Lugnuts should have a number of openings in the outfield, as Marisnick, Knecht, and Crouse should all be promoted to Dunedin to open 2012. If not, Anderson will likely split the season between two teams, spending 30 or so games with a short season team (Vancouver most likely) before finishing the season with the aformentioned Lugnuts. Despite playing in only 9 professional games, Anderson should rank highly on my top prospect list.
Dwight Smith Jr –- N/A
The second 2011 draftee in the
Remember the Name category is Dwight Smith Jr, another compensation round pick. Smith received a signing bonus of 0.8M which, like Anderson, was slightly above slot. Like Dickie Thon Jr, Smith Jr is the son of a former big leaguer of the same name. DNA and bloodlines are quickly becoming another important aspect of amateur scouting, although Junior plays the game a bit differently than his father. He recently turned 19 but has yet to play a professional game, which speaks to the problems the previous signing deadline had (it's been fixed, but the other draft changes the new CBA brought is a whole other story).
Smith's bat is easily his best tool, and is what made him a supplemental-first round pick. He has a very advanced approach at the plate, showing an ability to square up pitches regardless of the quadrant of the strikezone they're thrown in. Smith has a lot of action in his swing, as he wiggles the bat in his hands in addition to a huge front leg kick as a timing mechanism. The plane of his swing covers much of the plate, allowing him to fight off borderline pitches until he sees one to his liking. A large aspect of Smith's success is his plate vision and maturity. He can recognize pitches quickly and is an intelligent hitter, taking a walk when a pitcher refuses to throw over the plate. Smith grew up around baseball, and it's evident with the way he plays. His power is a step above that of his father, and should be an average tool in the future. His athleticism, on the other hand, is a step below his dad's. He has average speed, but is an above average base runner due to his inherent ability to read pitchers. The same instincts that help him in the box and on the basepaths also help him on defense. Reaction time and reading balls are far more important in the outfield than pure speed, which allows Smith to be an above average fielder. His arm strength is mediocre, but his accuracy is outstanding and his quick release allows him to throw out more runners than he should.
A video of Dwight Smith Jr can be found here, which was once again brought to my attention by the guys at
Jays Journal.
As previously mentioned, Smith has yet to make his professional debut, which makes forecasting his 2012 destination rather difficult. His advanced offensive skills make Lansing or Vancouver legitimate possibilities, and anything below Low-A would have to be considered a safe yet cowardly assignment. Smith's instincts and baseball smarts allow his tools to play up, but his ceiling is more of a solid regular than a potential All-Star.
Name: Jacob Anderson
