While the sample size of one team is vastly inferior to that of the entire minor leagues, I feel Toronto has enough depth in the farm -- particularly in the low minors -- that such a series could provide some insight into prospects that Blue Jays fans aren't as familiar with as they should be. This is the fourth installment of an eight part series that will examine catcher, first base, middle infield, third base, center field, corner outfield, right handed pitcher, and left handed pitcher. The middle infield and corner outfield lists are included as there's really no such thing as a second base or left field prospect, they're just shortstops and center/right fielders who couldn't handle the defensive demands and get moved to the easier defensive position as they age. It should be noted that -- outside of the Leader of the Pack, who is the #1 for the position -- these are not necessarily progressive rankings of the prospects.
Part I -- Blue Jays Positional Primer: Catcher
Part II -- Blue Jays Positional Primer: First Base
Part III -- Blue Jays Positional Primer: Middle Infield
Part V -- Blue Jays Positional Primer: Center Field
Part VI -- Blue Jays Positional Primer: Corner Outfield
Part VII -- Blue Jays Positional Primer: Right-handed Pitcher
Part VIII -- Blue Jays Positional Primer: Left-handed Pitcher
The Leader of the Pack
Matt Dean -– N/A
Despite having yet to suit up in a Blue Jays uniform, Matt Dean is Toronto’s best third base prospect and the Leader of the Pack. Dean was drafted in the 13th round of the 2011 draft, signing for a well over-slot bonus of 0.737M – roughly 2nd round money. With such a drastic over-slot deal, the announcement was held back by the Commissioner’s Office until the signing deadline -– August 15th –- making it impossible for Dean to play for any Blue Jays affiliates in his draft year. The 6’3”, 190 lb Dean played shortstop in highschool, but was announced at the draft as a third baseman. Depending upon his physical growth and defensive development he may eventually be forced to first or a corner outfield, but Dean should be given every opportunity to stick at the hot corner.Dean profiles as a middle of the lineup hitter if he reaches his ceiling, but he has a number of hurdles to conquer before reaching his potential. His best tool is his power, which is generated by a natural uppercut swing and solid bat speed. He has the potential for plus power if his projectable frame fills out. His bat tool is a step behind his power, as despite the bat speed he has a long swing and relies heavily upon a timing mechanism with his front foot. If he can’t shorten up his swing mechanically, he could have issues turning on good fastballs inside as he faces better competition. He could hit .290, or his bat could never allow to get out of Triple-A. There’s a lot of risk in highschool players. Next to his power, his arm is his best tool, also a plus. He makes smooth, crisp throws across the diamond. As previously mentioned, his fielding isn’t spectacular, and he will need to work at it if he wishes to stay at third.
Even with the huge signing bonus, Dean’s 13th round status could allow him to stay under the radar for his first couple of seasons, giving him time to develop without pressure – something that can’t be said for the next player on this list. Dean should play for a short-season league in his debut season -– likely Bluefield -– but he could realistically start for any team as high as Low-A Vancouver.
Mr Consistency
Kevin Ahrens -– 2011 team: High-A Dunedin Blue Jays
429 AB, .242/.334/.389 (.723 OPS), 24 2B, 0 3B, 13 HR, 54 RBI, 0 SB, 56/99 BB/K
Kevin Ahrens was the highest drafted of any player on the third base list, being selected in the 1st round (16th overall) of the 2007 draft. Six players selected after him in that draft (J.P. Arencibia, Brett Cecil, Trystan Magnuson, Brad Mills, Marc Rzepczynski, and Brad Emaus) have already reached the major leagues in various capacities, but Ahrens has yet to play above High-A Dunedin, a team he has suited up for on Opening Day in three consecutive seasons. His continuous mediocrity at one level earns him the title of Mr. Consistency.It’s typically bad for a player to have to repeat a level. It’s even worse when they’re statistically worse the second time around. This is exactly what happened to Kevin Ahrens. After posting an ugly .215/.282/.302 (.584) line for the D-Jays in 2009, Ahrens was re-assigned there for the 2010 season. He somehow managed to play worse, slipping to .187/.241/.290 (.531) in 28 games before being demoted to Single-A Lansing. He was respectable in Lansing, which earned him a third shot at High-A in 2011, where he put together the offensive line seen above.
You know your career has gone down the wrong path when a .723 OPS is the best of your 5 year career. Still, there is some light at the end of the tunnel. Ahrens displayed career bests in power and plate discipline in his first year playing exclusively as a right handed bat (he was previously a switch hitter), and will still only be 22 on Opening Day. Assuming a Double-A assignment out of the spring -– which is logical given his inclusion in the Arizona Fall League this year -– Ahrens will still be matched up against players his own age. He’s not a 24 or 25 year old scuffling in the minors just yet. While the Chipper Jones comparisons are now so laughable they might make you cry, a big league career is not out of the realm of possibility.
The Question Mark
Kellen Sweeney –- 2011 team: Rookie-Class Bluefield Blue Jays
35 AB, .114/.295/.143 (.438 OPS), 1 2B, 0 3B, 0 HR, 1 RBI, 1 SB, 9/17 BB/K
A 2nd round pick in the 2010 draft, Sweeney’s career has not started off the way anyone had hoped. Kellen Sweeney signed his contract on July 26th 2010, roughly 16 months ago. In those 16 months, Sweeney has played in a total of 25 games for Blue Jays affiliates. As mentioned, Sweeney signed late in his draft year and was only able to play in 16 games for the Gulf Coast Blue Jays. He performed very well, hitting .267/.450/.444 (.894), emphasized by an impressive 15 to 12 walk to strikeout ratio.The 2011 season went in the complete opposite direction, as Sweeney got off to a slow start statistically with the Bluefield Blue Jays. It got worse, as he only managed to play in 9 games before suffering a fracture in his left thumb, located in the base of the digit down near the wrist. The injury occurred on June 30th when he fell awkwardly on his hand during a rundown on the base paths. That would be the last game he played last season. Hand and wrist injuries are always a concern for power hitters, but power is not the game Kellen plays. Kellen has a very similar toolset to that of his older brother Ryan, who currently plays the outfield for the Oakland Athletics. He has an excellent approach at the plate with very quick hands, allowing the potential for a plus hit tool despite a well below average power tool. He’s built solidly at 6’0”, 180 lbs, but isn’t overly athletic. He has average speed, but excellent instincts allow him to be an above average runner on the base paths. Those instincts also serve him well in the field, which might be why Toronto moved him from shortstop to the instinct-driven third base position. He had Tommy John surgery on his throwing arm in 2009 which zapped a lot of his arm strength, but if it returns he should be able to remain on the left side of the infield.
Sweeney will be 20 on Opening Day, which might force Toronto into giving him an aggressive assignment despite his 80 career professional at-bats. He will likely be competing with Matt Dean for placement, so if Dean shows enough to start the year with Vancouver, Sweeney might make the jump to Lansing. Otherwise, he could find himself back with Bluefield. It may really come down to how the two third basemen look in instructional during the spring. Regardless of his assignment, Sweeney needs to send a message in 2012 and let the baseball world know he’s still relevant.
Remember the Name
Gabriel Cenas -– 2011 team: Dominican League Blue Jays
53 AB, .208/.368/.226 (.594 OPS), 1 2B, 0 3B, 0 HR, 3 RBI, 1 SB, 9/11 BB/K
Rounding out the third base list is Gabriel Cenas, an 18 year old Venezuelan. Cenas is the often forgotten second big-name prospect the Blue Jays signed out of Venezuela during the 2010 International Free Agent signing period, behind 2.8M dollar man Adonys Cardona. Cenas was ranked as the 14th best available International Free Agent by Baseball America, and received a 0.7M signing bonus when he came to terms with the Blue Jays. Having only recently turned 18, Cenas still has a lot of time to grow. Currently standing 6’1” and weighing 155 lbs, he could easily become 6’3”, 200 lbs by the time he’s physically mature at 22 or 23 years of age.
As is the case with almost all International Free Agent signees, Cenas is all tools and projection at this point. Early comments on Cenas have him sounding rather similar to Matt Dean, though obviously without the polish. Cenas’ best (potential) tools are his power and arm. He gets the bat through the strikezone well, allowing him to square up the ball with frequency. As he adds muscle, he could have above average power. Cenas’ arm is a plus tool, as he has no issues firing the ball across the diamond with accuracy. He is a good athlete, but is never likely to be much of a base stealing threat. His hit and fielding tools are impossible to judge at this point, as Cenas has yet to even play on American soil in his career, which drastically reduces his exposure.
Cenas will likely play for the Blue Jays Gulf Coast affiliate in 2012. Talent wise, the transition from the DSL to the GCL is a marginal-at-best increase. The biggest change is the culture, as it gives players a chance to experience the United States while still having a strong Latin community. Cenas likely knows little to no English at this point, and playing in Florida for a year should allow him to learn the basic necessities of the language before eventually moving on to the English-heavy Bluefield, Vancouver, or Lansing communities in later seasons.
No comments:
Post a Comment