Matt Garza's Trade Value

Regardless of what Cubs General Manager Theo Epstein may say, Matt Garza is available through trade, and with Trevor Cahill and Matt Latos already wearing new uniforms, it's more than likely he's the best starting pitcher available. Due to their desire for pitching and their wealth of moveable prospects, Toronto has been one of the teams most frequently linked to Garza, and rightfully so -- he would look outstanding alongside Ricky Romero and Brandon Morrow in the top half of a rotation. What is distressing me the most, however, is the prospects -- or rather packages of prospects -- that are reportedly in play in the discussions.

I keep trying to remind myself that it's Toronto we're dealing with here, and this team has a strict policy against releasing any kind of information to the media. So while Cubs writers and reporters keep throwing around names like Henderson Alvarez, Noah Syndergaard, Jake Marisnick, Anthony Gose, Deck McGuire and so on as "good fits", such speculation should be taken with a grain of salt. Still, it bothers me.

Three big name starting pitchers have been traded this offseason -- Matt Latos, Trevor Cahill, and Gio Gonzalez -- but none of those situations were drastically similar to that of Matt Garza. In terms of age and service time, the differences are pretty huge.

Trevor Cahill
- 2012 Opening Day age: 24
- Service time: 3 years
- Under contract through 2015 (4 years, 28.7M remaining) with club options for 2016 (13M, 0.3M buyout) and 2017 (13.5M, 0.5M buyout)
- 2011 WARP: 0.7
- Traded to ARZ for RHP Jarrod Parker, RHP Ryan Cook, OF Collin Cowgill

Matt Latos
- 2012 Opening Day age: 24
- Service time: 2 years, 79 days
- Under team control through 2015
- 2011 WARP: 2.5
- Traded to CIN for 1B Yonder Alonso, C Yasmani Grandal, RHP Edison Volquez, RHP Brad Boxberger

Gio Gonzalez
- 2012 Opening Day age: 26
- Service time: 2 years, 162 days
- Under team control through 2015
- 2011 WARP: 2.4
- Traded to WSH for RHP A.J. Cole, RHP Brad Peacock, C Derek Norris, LHP Tom Milone

Matt Garza
- 2012 Opening Day age: 28
- Service time: 4 years, 149 days
- Under team control through 2013, 2012 salary > 5.95M
- 2011 WARP: 2.9
- Traded to ???

In comparison to the other three, Matt Garza is the oldest by 2 years, has the most service time (and therefore the least team control), and will have the highest salary by far in 2012. Arbitration figures have yet to be exchanged, but Garza will likely be seeking an 8M contract after earning nearly 6M while putting together his best statistical season with the Cubs. Without an extension being signed, Garza is likely to command close to 20M over his 2 years of control, after which he would become a free agent. So the question that needs to be asked is, how much should a team be willing to give up in a trade so that they can pay Matt Garza 20M for the next 2 years, with no guarantees after that? In my opinion the service time is the biggest factor, and therefore it should certainly be less than what the Diamondbacks, Reds, and Nationals paid for their pitchers. In fact, I think the best comparison for compensation is a player that Blue Jays fans know very well.

Shaun Marcum
- 2011 Opening Day age: 29
- Service time: 4 years, 128 days
- Under team control through 2012
- 2010 WARP: 3.1
- Traded to MIL for 3B Brett Lawrie

At the time of his trade, Marcum was roughly a year older than Garza despite having very similar service times. They both had two years left of team control, and produced nearly identical WARP values in the season prior to being traded. One big difference between the two was salary, as while Garza is set to receive a big raise on his 5.85M salary, Marcum made only 0.85M in 2010, and settled with the Brewers for 3.95M in 2011. However, the biggest difference between the two is their injury histories, which cannot be disregarded. For Garza, he's been placed on the disabled list twice in his career, once in 2008 and once in 2011. Both injuries were to his elbow, but one was simply a bruise while the other was nerve inflammation. He missed a total of 35 days across the two DL stints. For Marcum, the injury file is a bit thicker. In the summer of 2008, he spent 33 days on disabled list due to a strain in his pitching elbow. The injury was reaggravated in September, forcing him to go under the knife for Tommy John surgery, wiping out his entire 2009 season. He spent another 16 days on the DL in 2010 for elbow inflammation, but thankfully on this occasion it was to his non-throwing arm.

With this in mind, it's clear that while their team control and production were similar, Marcum's risk factor was much higher and outweighed his favorable salary, diminishing his trade value. In exchange for Marcum, Toronto received a prospect by the name of Brett Lawrie, who was ranked as baseball's 40th best prospect by Baseball America, and 57th by Baseball Prospectus.

With that ranking in mind, the player most similar in Toronto's farm system might be Anthony Gose or Jake Marisnick, as they're both position players likely to fall somewhere in the 30-60 range of prospect lists. They would also fill the reported need by Chicago of a young center fielder, though I'm not sure what that says about their current #1 prospect, a center fielder by the name of Brett Jackson. If the Cubs were interested in a pitcher as the main piece of a Matt Garza deal (which frankly would make more sense), Noah Syndergaard, Justin Nicolino, Aaron Sanchez, Drew Hutchison, or Deck McGuire would be good targets. The first three have the most upside, but McGuire and Hutchison are much closer to the big leagues and have far lower risk factors.

All of those prospects would be in play, but most of the 2 or 3 for 1 deals that Theo Epstein will be peddling should be out of the question. It's almost guaranteed that all of those prospects will be on top 100 lists, and shouldn't be packaged together for a player like Garza -- the service time (or lack thereof) is too big of a road block. The best deal I could justify for the Cubs would be one of Marisnick and Gose, plus Deck McGuire. Any package deal that includes one of the center fielders plus one of the high upside arms (Syndergaard, Nicolino, Sanchez, Hutchison) is too much for my tastes, particularly for a team like Toronto who doesn't have immediate playoff aspirations. Had Toronto signed Prince Fielder the situation would be different, but with the currently assembled roster, Garza falls under "want" not "need".