2012 Top Prospects #15: Christopher Hawkins

Name: Christopher Hawkins
Position: Left Field
Acquired: 3rd round (2010)
Opening Day age: 20
Height/weight: 6’2”/195 lbs
Best/worst tool: Bat/fielding
Risk factor: Medium
ETA: 2015

Scouting Report

When Toronto selected Hawkins in the third round of the 2010 draft, he was announced as a shortstop. Since then, he has moved to third base, and subsequently to left field –- certainly not the path you’d like a young player to follow on the defensive value flow chart. It’s not that he’s a poor defender, he just doesn’t have the smoothness and grace required to play an infield position -– he’s a lot like Brett Lawrie in that regard, though Lawrie appears to have overcome that flaw. In the outfield his fielding skills are average, as his lack of smoothness is countered by above average athleticism that allows him to close ground on balls quickly. He has an above average arm, suggesting he might be able play one of the more demanding outfield positions –- center or right. Hawkins truly shines in the batters box, as he has a plus bat and solid-average power potential. He has excellent pitch recognition and good bat speed, causing his swing to generate a lot of line drives. His power ceiling might only be 15 home runs –- not a lot for a corner outfielder -– but his bat and athleticism should create enough doubles and triples for him to maintain a healthy slugging percentage regardless.

2011 Statistics and Analysis

242 AB, .318/.375/.492 (.866 OPS), 15 2B, 6 3B, 5 HR, 52 RBI, 14 SB, 22/46 BB/K

Hawkins made huge strides in his second season in short season ball. After struggling to a .674 OPS with the Gulf Coast Blue Jays in 2010, Hawkins exploded onto the scene with Bluefield, putting his entire array of tools on display. His bat was impressive, but the way in which he succeeded with it was most peculiar. With the bases empty, Hawkins hit a mere .230/.297/.333 (.630) in 126 AB. With runners on, the batting line spikes to .414/.457/.664 (1.121) in 116 AB. Obviously the sample size isn’t the largest, but if he maintains that kind of success with runners aboard, he would be the ideal 2-hole hitter. The power showed a marked improvement over 2010, as his ISO nearly doubled, growing from 095 to 174. Hawkins also maintained a healthy walk rate, exceeding 8% for the second consecutive season.

Expected 2012 Assignment: Single-A Lansing

Future Outlook

Should Hawkins make the leap to full season ball with Single-A Lansing as expected, he’s set up for a potential monster breakout. He has the type of bat than should handle Midwest League pitching quite well, and the rest of his tools should create balanced and impressive statistics over the 500+ at-bat season. If he continues his offensive success moving forward, Hawkins could find himself in the upper minors in 2014, and knocking on the door for a MLB job as early as 2015. With a polished bat and his defensive home already found, the risk with Hawkins is lower than the typical player who is preparing to make his full season debut.

Perfect World Projection: Every day LF who hits at the top of the lineup.

Blue Jays Positional Primer: Corner Outfield

Inspiration for the Blue Jays Positional Primer series comes from Jason Parks of Baseball Prospectus. Over the course of the second half of the season, Jason examined the prospects in the entire minor leagues on a position-by-position basis, giving insight into players both within and well outside the top 100 rankings.

While the sample size of one team is vastly inferior to that of the entire minor leagues, I feel Toronto has enough depth in the farm -- particularly in the low minors -- that such a series could provide some insight into prospects that Blue Jays fans aren't as familiar with as they should be. This is the sixth installment of an eight part series that will examine catcher, first base, middle infield, third base, center field, corner outfield, right handed pitcher, and left handed pitcher. The middle infield and corner outfield lists are included as there's really no such thing as a second base or left field prospect, they're just shortstops and center/right fielders who couldn't handle the defensive demands and get moved to the easier defensive position as they age. It should be noted that -- outside of the Leader of the Pack, who is the #1 for the position -- these are not necessarily progressive rankings of the prospects.

Part I -- Blue Jays Positional Primer: Catcher
Part II -- Blue Jays Positional Primer: First Base
Part III -- Blue Jays Positional Primer: Middle Infield
Part IV -- Blue Jays Positional Primer: Third Base
Part V -- Blue Jays Positional Primer: Center Field
Part VII -- Blue Jays Positional Primer: Right-handed Pitcher
Part VIII -- Blue Jays Positional Primer: Left-handed Pitcher

Leader of the Pack

Christopher Hawkins –- 2011 team: Rookie-class Bluefield
242 AB, .318/.375/.492 (.866 OPS), 15 2B, 6 3B, 5 HR, 52 RBI, 14 SB, 22/46 BB/K

Originally announced as a shortstop in the 2010 draft, Hawkins has since moved to third base and subsequently to the outfield, where he manned left for the Bluefield Blue Jays in 2011. Hawkins was a 3rd round pick for Toronto, and signed early enough to play 46 games for the Gulf Coast Blue Jays in his draft season, a rare thing to see from a highschool player selected early. Hawkins is the first of four Toronto Top 30 prospects to make the corner outfield positional primer.

Switching defensive positions early in a career is often a bad sign. Moving twice from shortstop (a high demand defensive position) to third base (a medium demand defensive position) to left field (a low demand defensive position) is even worse. It’s not that Hawkins isn’t athletic; he just lacks the smoothness and grace required for an infield position. His six triples and 14 stolen bases in 68 games can attest to his above average running ability and athleticism. His power is fringe above average, but his 15 HR ceiling certainly looks more impressive from shortstop than it does in left field. Hawkins best tool, however, is his bat. He has excellent pitch recognition and his strong build (6’2”, 195 lbs) allows him to generate good bat speed, lining balls to all fields. There is still some belief he could play center field due to his borderline plus calibre arm, but with the wealth of centerfielders in Toronto’s system already, Hawkins should be kept in left and allowed to work on the development of his swing.

Hawkins killed the Appalachian League as 19/20 year old, and now has two years worth of short season experience under his belt. It’s probably time for Hawkins to make the leap to full season ball with the Lansing Lugnuts, as he is Toronto’s most experienced corner outfielder in the low minors and has the approach/maturity combination to handle any of the ups and downs the Midwest League might throw at him.

The Question Mark

Moises Sierra –- 2011 team: Double-A New Hampshire
495 AB, .277/.342/.436 (.778 OPS), 19 2B, 3 3B, 18 HR, 67 RBI, 16 SB, 39/93 BB/K

An international free agent signee in late 2005, Sierra recently completed his sixth season in the Blue Jays organization despite only turning 23 years old in late September. His first four seasons followed a path typical of young Dominican prospects, as he spent two years in short season leagues –- one in the Dominican League, followed by one in the Gulf Coast League. In 2008 he made the leap to full season ball with Single-A Lansing, and in 2009 he established his prospect status, hitting .292/.360/.399 (.759) in 118 games between High-A Dunedin and Double-A New Hampshire -– two leagues that are often difficult to hit in.

Sierra’s career got completely sidetracked in 2010, which leads to his status as the corner outfield’s biggest question mark. He played only 20 total games that season due to a couple of very significant injuries. First, he suffered a microfracture in his shin early in the season, forcing him to miss almost three full months. Later, not long after returning, he suffered a broken hamate bone. The hamate is a small bone near the base of the hand that usually takes 4-6 weeks for the bone to heal, but the damage to the player’s power often takes much longer to recover from. Sierra entered 2011 healthy for the first time in years, and took an aggressive assignment in stride, putting together the solid all-around line seen above.

His best tool is his arm, which is easily the best of any of Toronto’s outfield prospects. It’s at least a 70 tool, and has likely received more than a few 80’s from scouts in attendance of his games. His fielding skills in right field are solid, but his arm is so good it would be waste to try him elsewhere. His power took a huge step forward in 2011, as he doubled his previous career high in home runs. At 6’0”, 225 lbs, it’s possible there is potential for further power growth. His bat tool is fringe average-above average, but his much improved plate discipline allows it to play up. He has stolen 10+ bases in four seasons which is indicative of his above average raw speed, but his 14 caught stealing in 2011 suggest he needs some refinement in his base running skills. With a Triple-A Las Vegas assignment in 2012, Sierra could really go off.

Remember the Name

Marcus Knecht –- 2011 team: Single-A Lansing
439 AB, .273/.377/.474 (.851 OPS), 34 2B, 3 3B, 16 HR, 86 RBI, 4 SB, 67/124 BB/K

Born in Toronto, Knecht followed a different path to affiliated ball than most. Knecht was originally drafted out of high school by the Milwaukee Brewers in the 23rd round of the 2008 draft, but instead chose to fulfill his commitment to Oklahoma State. His university of choice did not show him the same commitment, as they gave him only 12 at-bats in his freshman season. Knecht decided to take his talents elsewhere, transferring to nearby Connors State Junior College. The move paid off, as Knecht crushed the ball in a fulltime role, and had scouts throwing draft grades on him as high as the first round. Toronto took a risk waiting until the 113th pick, but got their man in the third round.

Knecht is a mediocre fielder with a fringe-average arm, making his best-case defensive position left field, and his worst-case either first base or designated hitter. Regardless, Knecht wasn’t considered a potential first round pick because of his defensive skills – he possesses an impressive power/speed combination in addition to his best tool, his bat. According to Perfect Game, Knecht runs a 6.54 60-time, which is exceptional straight-line speed. That speed has yet to turn into triples and stolen bases, but they could come as his baserunning skills improve. He has a smooth and easy swing to go along with a disciplined approach at the plate, giving the potential for above average to plus hit and power tools. He uses the entire field well, which allows him to be strong against both left handed and right handed pitchers.

Playing alongside Jake Marisnick and Michael Crouse in the Lansing outfield, Knecht helped to drive the Lugnuts to the Midwest League championship, where they eventually fell in three games to the Quad City River Bandits. Fatigue may have been a factor late in the season for Knecht, as it was his first taste of full season ball in addition to the long playoff run. The statistics back up that assessment, as he hit .302/.391/.491 (.882) through the first four months of the season before falling off drastically in August and September. With the knowledge and experience gained from full season ball, Knecht should be better prepared for 2012 and ready to rake for five-plus months in Dunedin.

Prove It

Michael Crouse –- 2011 team: Single-A Lansing
364 AB, .261/.352/.475 (.827 OPS), 26 2B, 5 3B, 14 HR, 55 RBI, 38 SB, 44/113 BB/K

The fourth player on the corner outfield primer is the list’s second Canadian, Michael Crouse. Unlike Knecht who was born in the home of the Blue Jays, Crouse is yet another product from the outstanding baseball programs of British Columbia, where current major leaguers Justin Morneau, Brett Lawrie, Jason Bay, Rich Harden, Ryan Dempster, and Jeff Francis (among others) all learned to play ball. Of the three corner outfielders who entered the draft, Crouse was the lowest selected as a 16th rounder in 2008.

Crouse only turned 21 years old last month, but has already spent parts of four seasons in Toronto’s farm system -- though he has only started playing up to his potential in the last two. It shouldn’t really come as a surprise, however, as Crouse only recently became a one sport athlete. Throughout highschool, Crouse and his 6’4”, 215 lbs frame played a lot of football which, while greatly increasing his strength and athleticism, decreased the amount of time he spent in the cages learning the intricacies of the game. The growth is obvious, as his improvement with his bat has allowed both his power and speed tools to shine. In his last two seasons he has posted .859 and .827 OPS values respectively, while totalling 38 doubles, 10 triples, 20 home runs, and 52 stolen bases in 157 games. The only tool lacking is the bat, though it is more than playable. If he could continue to improve it to even fringe above average, he could me a monster in the power department.

It’s very likely that Crouse and his two Lugnuts outfielder pals will be reunited again next season with the Dunedin Blue Jays, which should be a good challenge for the three, but Crouse in particular. 2011 was a weak year for pitching in the Midwest League, but the Florida State League will always have good pitchers and pitcher-friendly parks. If he continues his success from the past two seasons into the FSL, his breakout will be very real and he’ll start flying up prospect charts. Until that time, he still falls into the “prove it” category.

For anyone reading this article or who reads my blog regularly, thank you, it means a lot, and have a Merry Christmas / Happy Holidays!

Blue Jays Prospect Hot Sheet: Aug 19-28

As I mentioned in the last edition, Hypocritical Sports Fan will be running a regular Blue Jays Prospect Hot Sheet. The list is a representation of the hottest 5 or so players in the Blue Jays farm system over a 10 day period, with the player pool consisting of my personal Top 40 prospect list.

This edition will be for the games spanning from (and including) August 19th to August 28th.

1. CF Jacob Anderson, GCL Blue Jays
.500/.551/.692 (1.243 OPS), 2 2B, 1 HR, 4 RBI, 1 SB, 3/4 BB/K

Anderson, the first positional player drafted by Toronto this past June, has seen his professional career get off to a scorching start. As a late signee, Anderson has only played 9 games in the Gulf Coast League so far this year, but is already showing he could be ready for a Bluefield or Vancouver assignment to begin next year. The above stat line was accumulated in only 7 games (6 of which were multi-hit efforts), which makes Anderson taking the #1 spot even more impressive. Jacob Anderson is a big guy at 6'4", and given his age (he won't turn 19 until late November) it's likely he will move to a corner outfield position down the road as he continues to mature physically. Anderson even played some first base for his highschool team because of his size and the fact they were so rich in atheltic outfielders. Regardless, Toronto will likely give him every opportunity to prove he can stay in centerfield as his value is much higher there.

2. RHP Drew Hutchison, Double-A New Hampshire
2-0, 10 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 3 BB, 13 K

Coming into the season I had ranked Hutchison as my #14 prospect in the system and thought myself rather bold in doing so. Since then, Hutch has torn the minor leagues apart, moving all the way from Single-A Lansing up to Double-A New Hampshire. Hutchison made two starts from August 19th to 28th, the first being his last with Dunedin, and the second being his debut with New Hampshire. Unsurprisingly, Hutchison met the challenge and excelled, posting two impressive pitching lines that total the above numbers. Hutch snuck into some midseason Top-50 prospect lists, and given his impressive second half numbers, I expect his name will pepper the top half of Top-100 lists this winter. Drew has established himself as one of Toronto's top-5 prospects entering 2012.

3. CF Jake Marisnick, Single-A Lansing
.378/.439/.595 (1.034 OPS), 5 2B, 1 HR, 5 RBI, 3 SB, 3/4 BB/K

Perhaps Toronto's most well rounded positional prospect, Jake Marisnick had one of those weeks. In his 9 games, Marisnick had multiple hits 6 times and atleast 1 extra base hit or stolen base 6 times. His best game during this time frame was August 26th, in which he went 3 for 4 with 2 doubles, 1 home run, and 2 runs scored. Along with the aformentioned Drew Hutchison, Marisnick has been one of Toronto's biggest stories in the minor leagues this year. Now up to a .323/.396/.500 (.896), 26 2B, 6 3B, 13 HR, 76 RBI, 35 SB, 43/84 BB/K line on the year, the 20 year old Marisnick has established himself as a blue chip prospect and should meet the 2012 challenge of Dunedin with a lot of confidence.

4. RHP Chad Jenkins, Double-A New Hampshire
0-2, 13.2 IP, 8 H, 5 ER, 0 BB, 14 K

While the 0-2 record and 3.29 ERA don't seem worthy of a hot sheet, it's Jenkins' other numbers that show how dominant he was in late August. Jenkins held hitters to a sub-.200 batting average and walked no one, good for an impressive 0.59 WHIP. After posting rather mediocre numbers through his first two Double-A months (June and July), Jenkins came on strong in August with a 3.06 ERA, 0.93 WHIP, 3.71 K/BB, and 7.24 K/9. While he lacks the upside of many of Toronto's other pitching prospects, Jenkins has gotten hot at the right time, inspiring some confidence from the front office, which should help him achieve his big league dreams at some point in 2012.

5. CF Anthony Gose, Double-A New Hampshire
.250/.386/.528 (.914 OPS), 2 2B, 1 3B, 2 HR, 5 RBI, 11 SB, 6/10 BB/K

To say that Anthony Gose has been on a base stealing tear would be an understatement. From August 19th to 28th, Gose went 11/11, bringing his cumulative August total to 17/17. What has been equally impressive has been Gose's power development, as his 5 extra base hits during this time period bring him up to 11 for the month (5 2B, 1 3B, 5 HR). His biggest problem this year, which is emphasized nicely in this sample, is strikeouts. Gose struck out 10 times during these 10 games, bringing his season total up to 143 strikeouts in 130 games. Despite hitting only .250 here, Gose made his hits count.

6. LF Christopher Hawkins, Rookie-class Bluefield
.424/.500/.545 (1.045 OPS), 4 2B, 0 HR, 8 RBI, 2 SB, 6/6 BB/K

Toronto's outfield depth shouldn't be questioned any time soon. Hawkins is the 4th outfielder to make this hot sheet, and is the first prospect to appear on consecutive lists. Hawkins made the sheet once again through consistency, as he had at least a hit in 9 of his 10 games. The only game in which he did not record a hit was a pinch hitting appearance, where he walked. Amazingly, in his 9 starts, he reached base two or more times in every game. While he hasn't shown the extra base power that his hot list counterparts have, Hawkins has found continued success this year by taking what he is given and knocking the ball around the park. If "clutch" could be measured, Hawkins' 1.140 OPS with runners on and 1.033 OPS with runners in scoring position might suggest he has a some in him.

Blue Jays Prospect Hot Sheet: August 9-18

Baseball America has been running a weekly prospect hot sheet for as long as I have had an interest in the minor leagues, and I have always enjoyed reading it and the follow up chat with the writer. The hot sheets have become even more enjoyable to read over the last couple of seasons, as unlike in the pre-Anthopolous years, Blue Jays prospects are making regular appearances on the list this year. Three of Toronto's better prospects; Travis d'Arnaud, Jake Marisnick, and Drew Hutchison, have peppered the hot sheet in their breakout 2011 seasons.

To further raise the exposure of some of Toronto's prospects, I have decided to create a Blue Jays Prospect Hot Sheet that will detail the hottest 5 or so prospects over a 10 day period. While Baseball America uses a 7 day window, I feel 10 days gives a better opportunity to pitchers as most of them will make 2 starts in those 10 days, while the hitters will still get their 8-9 games.

The eligble pool of players will be comprised of my Top 40 Blue Jays prospects, so, for example, 27 year old journeymen minor leaguers who smack 4 home runs in the 10 days will not be considered.

The first Blue Jays Prospect Hot Sheet will be for the 10 days spanning from (and including) August 9th to August 18th.

1. RHP Nestor Molina, Double-A New Hampshire
1-0, 11 IP, 6 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 17 K, 0.81 ERA, 0.64 WHIP

The Venezuela native Nestor Molina made two starts for the Fisher Cats this week -- his first two since being promoted after spending the whole year with the Dunedin Blue Jays. Despite not having overpowering stuff, Molina uses an outstanding changeup and his incredible command to carve up hitters in a way that chefs would be envious of. Molina's week was powered by his Thursday start, possibly his best start of the whole season, in which he went 5 innings, allowed only 2 hits, and struck out 9 batters. If not for his strict inning limit, Molina's 9.96 K/9 would put him near the top of the minor league leaderboard in strikeouts. Molina did not rank on my preseason Top 15, but should definitely find a home there after his 2011 season.

2. SS Adeiny Hechavarria, Triple-A Las Vegas
.517/.563/.621 (1.183 OPS), 3 2B, 0 HR, 2 RBI, 3/3 BB/K

Many eyebrows were raised when Hechavarria was promoted to Triple-A after posting a .622 OPS in 111 Double-A games this season. Regardless, Hechavarria answered the call, putting together perhaps the best 7 game stretch of his career. Hechavarria had 2 or more hits in each of his first 6 games in Las Vegas, and just to cap his week off, he threw in three walks. Hechavarria has the glove to play Major League shortstop -- his bat has been the only thing holding him back thus far. This week may have been a combination of luck and the PCL effect, but, just maybe, it is the start of something much bigger for the young Cuban.

3. C Travis d'Arnaud, Double-A New Hampshire
.324/.342/.649 (.991 OPS), 1 2B, 1 3B, 3 HR, 7 RBI, 1/10 BB/K

While this wasn't d'Arnaud's best overall stretch of the season, it's hard to argue with the power production in such a short period of time. His double and three bombs this week bring his season totals to 31 and 18 respectively, and he even tossed in a triple for good measure. The ten strikeouts are certainly a black spot on an otherwise outstanding week, but when you are making such powerful contact as d'Arnaud did here, your tendency may temporarily shift to swing now, take later. With no apparent September callup in sight, d'Arnaud should look to finish the last few weeks of his season with New Hampshire strong, and further solidify himself as one of the Blue Jays top 2 or 3 prospects entering next year.

4. LF Christopher Hawkins, Rookie-class Bluefield
.379/.486/.483 (.969 OPS), 3 2B, 0 HR, 10 RBI, 1 SB, 6/6 BB/K

While d'Arnaud displayed how power can generate a strong line, Christopher Hawkins was highly productive by simply taking what pitchers gave him. Despite seeing only 3 of his 11 hits go for extra bases, Hawkins still managed to drive in 10 runs, and when pitchers didn't throw him what he wanted, he happily took the walk. The 2010 3rd round pick has had a strong year overall, and was recently named as one of the better left field prospects in the game in Jason Parks's (Baseball Prospectus) left field positional primer. Hawkins has accomplished all of this despite being drafted as an infielder and making the conversion to the outfield.

5. RF Moises Sierra, Double-A New Hampshire
.367/.441/.600 (1.041 OPS), 1 2B, 2 HR, 3 RBI, 1 SB, 4/5 BB/K

Moises Sierra is the third Fisher Cat to make the list, which shouldn't be too surprising given New Hampshire's 6-4 record in their drive for the post season during this statistical timeframe. While he isn't a top prospect by any means, Sierra is a decent prospect who, despite being only 22 years old, often goes overlooked. Sierra has decent power and a sound approach at the plate, which is picturized nicely in this sample size. Sierra had two 3-hit games in mid-August, which were the meat behind his numbers.

In a bit of a blast from the past, Travis Snider has taken his demotion to Triple-A very seriously. Since arriving in Las Vegas on the 8th, he has hit .378/.439/.568 (1.007 OPS) with a double, 2 HR, 13 RBI, 5 SB, and a 4/9 BB/K ratio in 9 games. The Lunch Box Hero graduated from prospect status years ago, making him ineligible to be ranked on the list, but as long as he keeps putting together stretches like this, his performance will be shared.