2012 Top Prospects #9: Deck McGuire

Name: Deck McGuire
Position: Right-handed Pitcher
Acquired: 1st round (2010)
Opening Day age: 22
Height/weight: 6’6”/220 lbs
Best/worst tool: Slider/curveball
Risk factor: Low
ETA: 2012

Scouting Report

Unlike most of Toronto’s top pitching prospects, McGuire’s biggest strengths are his proximity to the major leagues and his lack of a glaring weakness. He was selected 11th overall in the 2010 draft, and at the time Toronto had a sound understanding of what he was going to be -- there’s not a lot of projectability in a filled out 6’6” frame. The height does give McGuire a steep downward plane on his pitches, which aids in the generation of groundballs. His delivery is smooth, but a bit meticulous with slow arm action from the 3/4 slot. It does contain some deception, however, and he repeats it well. McGuire has very good command, which allows his less than spectacular repertoire to play up. His fastball is an average pitch, sitting in the 89-92 mph range and rarely clocking higher. The movement is also quite average, as it has some arm side sink but nothing dramatic. Another of McGuire’s strengths is his depth of arsenal, as he throws three different offspeed pitches. The best of the group could be his slider, which has flashed fringe-plus potential while sitting in the mid 80’s. McGuire’s changeup has shown above average potential. A low 80’s offering, it can throw hitters off the timing of his fastball, while also serving as an out pitch against lefties. Closing out the groups a sweeping curveball, sitting in the mid 70’s while showing more loop than bite. Such a repertoire should get big league hitters out, but with so little projectability it’s doubtful his ceiling is much higher than it currently is.

2011 Statistics and Analysis

23 games (21 starts), 125.1 IP, 109 H, 42 ER, 13 HR, 45 BB, 124 K
9-5, 3.02 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 8.90 K/9, 2.76 K/BB, 0.86 GO/AO

McGuire split his debut season between High-A Dunedin and Double-A New Hampshire, appearing in 19 games at the former and 4 at the latter. While the overall line looks pretty good, there are some pretty glaring issues. With Dunedin, where he dominated to the tune of a 2.75 ERA, he had some home run issues, allowing 9 in 104.2 innings. That problem was amplified after his promotion to New Hampshire, as he allowed 4 home runs in just 20.2 innings. It speaks to the lack of life (both in terms of velocity and movement) on his fastball, and how he can become overly reliant on a mediocre pitch. McGuire would be a lot more successful if he mixed things up and/or worked backwards more often. His season was cut short in early August, as the Blue Jays placed McGuire on the minor league disabled list with a lower back injury. It wasn’t serious, as he returned on September 5th to make a relief appearance before the Fisher Cats began the playoffs. McGuire also started game 4 in the Eastern League Championship, though he was ineligible for the win after throwing only 3 innings.

Expected 2012 Assignment: Double-A New Hampshire

Future Outlook

McGuire will begin the season with Double-A New Hampshire, but should make his major league debut at some point during the 2012 season. With only 23 career games under his belt he could use a little more seasoning, so it’s doubtful he would be the first injury replacement. That honor might fall to Chad Jenkins or Drew Hutchison, both of whom have two full minor league seasons to their name. Regardless, McGuire should see the Toronto rotation later in the summer, or at the very latest, September. Depending upon how the season unfolds for the pitching staff, McGuire could either contend for a full time rotation spot in the spring of 2013, or he could be traded over the offseason. He lacks the one or two great pitches to be a late inning reliever, so if Toronto can’t find a spot in the rotation for him, they might be better off seeking equal value in a trade.

Perfect World Projection: Strong #4 starter who is durable, reliable, and gobbles up innings.

Minor League Pitcher of the Year

With the minor league seasons having reached completion, it is time to determine the Blue Jays minor league players of the year -- both hitter and pitcher. Unlike previous years, there are a wealth of candidates for these awards thanks to the overall depth of the farm system. In addition to the shear number of prospects, many of the high upside prospects had big years, causing the farm to look even better.

The candidates:

RHP Drew Hutchison, Double-A New Hampshire
14-5, 149.1 IP, 120 H, 42 ER, 4 HR, 35 BB, 171 K
2.53 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 4.89 K/BB, 10.31 K/9, 1.33 GO/AO

In terms of both tools and numbers, Hutchison took more of a step forward than any other pitcher in the Blue Jays system. The former 15th round pick had a strong debut season in the low minor leagues in 2010, but exploded onto the scene in 2011. The vast statistical improvements were driven by an upgraded pitch arsenal. Hutchison added significant velocity to his fastball, up to the 91-95 mph range after sitting in the high 80's previously. Additionally, both of his off-speed pitches (slider, changeup) made strides, with Hutch showing an ability to locate them for called strikes or make hitters look foolish on swings and misses out of the zone. Hutchison had no issues with the long ball. Due to the strong movement on his pitches and plus command, he allowed only 4 home runs in nearly 150 innings. Hutchison's season was highlighted by a streak of six-plus scoreless starts, which drove his promotion to Dunedin. He continued his mastery in High-A before earning a late season promotion to Double-A where he made three dominating starts before being shut down due to his inning limit.

RHP Nestor Molina, Double-A New Hampshire
12-3, 130.1 IP, 114 H, 32 ER, 8 HR, 16 BB, 148 K
2.21 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 9.25 K/BB, 10.22 K/9, 1.43 GO/AO

The second candidate is Nestor Molina, and like Hutchison, he too climbed multiple levels during the season before finishing with New Hampshire. Molina's success was driven by a combination of his impeccable control (1.10 BB/9) and a devastating changeup which makes up for his average fastball. Similar to most young Blue Jays starters, Molina carried an innings limit throughout much of the year, which resulted in a lot of quick 5 innings starts. Despite those restrictions holding him to only 130 innings, Molina still finished 3rd in the entire Blue Jays system with 148 strikeouts, behind only Drew Hutchison (171) and Joel Carreno (152). Next year will be a big test for Molina, as it is probable he will see his innings restriction lifted. More innings will result in more exposure and more lineups seeing him for a 3rd time during his starts. It will be important for Molina to futher develop his breaking pitch.

RHP Deck McGuire, Double-A New Hampshire
9-5, 125.1 IP, 109 H, 42 ER, 13 HR, 45 BB, 124 K
3.02 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 2.76 K/BB, 8.90 K/9, 0.86 GO/AO

The Blue Jays 2010 first round pick had a successful debut season. Despite his polish, he was assigned to High-A Dunedin out of spring training and cut Florida State League hitters apart. In late July he received a well deserved promotion to join a loaded Fisher Cats pitching staff, but unfortunately was hit by a line drive in his August 7th start which forced him to the minor league disabled list for the rest of the month. His Double-A numbers were not on par with his High-A numbers, with the biggest issue being home runs. In 104.2 innings with Dunedin, McGuire allowed 9 home runs. In only 20.2 innings with the Cats, he allowed 4 home runs. This was likely a combination of small sample size and an adjustment period to a new level, but it will be something to monitor when he spends most of his 2012 season with New Hampshire.

The winner:

In addition to having arguably the best statistical season, Drew Hutchison took the biggest developmental strides, all while advancing through three levels in the Blue Jays minor league system. For these reason, Hutch is Toronto's Minor League Pitcher of the Year. He entered the year under the radar of most, but 2012 will be a much different story. The spotlight is now focused on him, and Hutchison must prove that this year was no fluke by continuing his success over a full year in Double-A with the pressure of a possible major league callup hanging over him.

The Minor League Hitter of the Year can be found here.

Top 15 Prospect Review: Pitchers

#2: RHP Kyle Drabek

(MLB) 4-5, 5.47 ERA, 1.73 WHIP, 75.2 IP, 78 H, 46 ER, 53 BB, 51 K
(AAA) 5-4, 7.44 ERA, 2.03 WHIP, 75 IP, 111 H, 62 ER, 41 BB, 45 K

2011 Breakdown:

Prospect analysts are extremely happy that Drabek surpassed the inning limit to be eligible as a rookue (and thus no longer a prospect), because after the season Drabek has had, nobody knows what to think of him. Expectations were high entering the season as the #4 starter, but after a dominant first outing of the year against the Twins, Drabek's year fell apart. He completely lost his control, abandoned his dominanting curveball, and saw himself demoted to the minors. Incredibly, things actually got worse for Drabek in Las Vegas. At this point it's hard to have confidence in Drabek as top of the rotation starter, but luckily the slate will be clean in 2012 and he can try to re-establish himself. As a former top prospect and the pitcher acquired in the Roy Halladay trade, Drabek should deservingly be given every opportunity.

2012 Prospect Status: N/A (graduated from prospect status)

#5: RHP Deck McGuire

(AA) 2-1, 4.35 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 20.2 IP, 20 H, 10 ER, 7 BB, 22 K
(A+) 7-4, 2.75 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 104.2 IP, 89 H, 32 ER, 38 BB, 102 K

2011 Breakdown:

In his first professional year, Deck McGuire cruised through the Florida State League before earning a midseason promotion to the New Hampshire Fisher Cats. McGuire suffered a leg injury 4 games into his Double-A career, forcing him to miss the remainder of the regular season. When he was drafted back in the summer of 2010, McGuire was touted as a polished pitcher with four average to above average pitches and above average command who should progress through the minors quickly. Despite the injury, McGuire's 2011 season proved he can already handle the upper minors, and should see his major league debut sooner than later. While McGuire lacks the ceiling of some of Toronto's arms, his polish is second to none among this group.

2012 Prospect Status: Rising

#7: RHP Zach Stewart

(MLB) 2-5, 4.97 ERA, 1.52 WHIP, 63.1 IP, 78 H, 35 ER, 18 BB, 44 K
(AA) 5-5, 4.20 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, 94.1 IP, 106 H, 44 ER, 27 BB, 74 K

2011 Breakdown:

After a solid albeit unspectacular 2010 season in the Eastern League, Stewart was surprisingly re-assigned there at the end of spring training. He failed to match his 2010 production, though he did pitch well enough to make his big league debut as an injury replacement. Stewart was traded to the Chicago White Sox in late July as part of the Edwin Jackson - Colby Rasmus trade, and has since burned up the remainder of his rookie eligibility. Whether Stewart will be a back end starter or reliever is still up in the air, but that determination now belongs to the White Sox.

2012 Prospect Status: N/A (graduated from prospect status, traded to CHW)

#9: RHP Aaron Sanchez

(A-) 0-1, 4.63 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 11.2 IP, 8 H, 6 ER, 8 BB, 13 K
(R) 3-2, 5.48 ERA, 1.48 WHIP, 42.2 IP, 45 H, 26 ER, 18 BB, 43 K

2011 Breakdown:

Still in short-season ball, Sanchez had a very mixed season. Similar to his debut 2010 season the strikeouts were there, but Sanchez still struggled locating the strikezone and got hit around more than you'd like to see from a prospect with stuff like he has. The biggest positive from the season was that he stayed healthy and managed to put a decent amount of professional innings on his arm, creating the possibility of a Lansing assignment next spring. The step from short-season to full-season ball is a big one for a pitcher, and Sanchez could be doing it under a big spotlight. He might be joining a Lugnuts pitching rotation that will include Noah Syndergaard and Justin Nicolino, two of Toronto's breakout arms of 2011.

2012 Prospect Status: Comparable

#10: RHP Asher Wojciechowski

(A+) 11-9, 4.70 ERA, 1.43 WHIP, 130.1 IP, 156 H, 68 ER, 31 BB, 96 K

2011 Breakdown:

Wojo had himself a bipolar 2011 season. When he was good, he was awesome. When he was bad, he didn't belong on a baseball diamond. In April, July, August, and September, Wojciechowski went 9-2 with a 2.56 ERA and 1.19 WHIP. In the middle months of May and June, he went 2-7 with a 7.81 ERA and 1.79 WHIP. Many scouts believe Wojciechowski would be better utilized as a reliever, as even though he is built like an ox (6'4", 230 lbs), he lacks a strong 3rd pitch and his fastball can flatten out when he gets tired. Wojo could split 2012 between Dunedin and New Hampshire out start in Double-A outright, but either way it's very likely he'll be moved to the bullpen late in the season unless he really starts to dominate hitters.

2012 Prospect Status: Comparable

#14: RHP Drew Hutchison

(AA) 3-0, 1.20 ERA, 0.80 WHIP, 15 IP, 10 H, 2 ER, 2 BB, 21 K
(A+) 5-3, 2.74 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, 62.1 IP, 42 H, 19 ER, 14 BB, 66 K
(A) 6-2, 2.63 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 72 IP, 68 H, 21 ER, 19 BB, 84 K

2011 Breakdown:

Drew Hutchison had the best season of any pitching prospect in the Blue Jays system, raising his status from organizational afterthought to possible top 50 in baseball. Hutch cruised all the way from Single-A Lansing up to Double-A New Hampshire, where he was eventually shut down during the Eastern League playoffs after reaching his innings limit for the season (149.1). Hutchison's season was highlighted by a first-half scoreless streak of six plus starts. His 174 strikeouts were the most of any Blue Jays farmhand this year, while his ERA (2.53), WHIP (1.04), and opposing average (.220) each ranked second.

2012 Prospect Status: Rising

#15: RHP Chad Jenkins

(AA) 5-7, 4.13 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 100.1 IP, 93 H, 46 ER, 27 BB, 74 K
(A+) 4-5, 3.07 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 67.1 IP, 71 H, 23 ER, 14 BB, 44 K

2011 Breakdown:

Jenkins improved on his debut 2010 season with his 2011 numbers, but once again failed to prove he is going to be anything more than a back of the rotation innings eater -- not that there's anything wrong with that. Jenkins is a sinkerballer which will always inhibit the number of strikeouts he will accumulate, but he continued to limit base runners (2.20 BB/9, 1.22 WHIP) which bodes well for future success. The Blue Jays have a lot of high risk arms (Morrow, McGowan, Drabek, Alvarez to an extent), so a dependable pitcher like Jenkins could definitely find a niche on this team in the future.

2012 Prospect Status: Comparable

Two 2010 Draftees making their mark

The 2010 draft may go down as one of the better drafts in Blue Jays history and, unsurprisingly, it was Anthopolous' first at the helm. The Blue Jays had 11 picks in the first 5 rounds, and managed to successfully sign all 11 players. Three of those players -- McGuire, Sanchez, and Wojciechowski, made my Blue Jays Top 15 prospects list, while another (Marcus Knecht) has gained a lot of national publicity due to his Canadian roots.

Despite being drafted early (38th and 80th overall respectively), Noah Syndergaard and Justin Nicolino have flown under the prospect radar. Both players signed for around $600,000 USD, which is roughly slot for Syndergaard, but overslot for Nicolino. With MLB's useless policy of holding back overslot deal in an attempt to lower the market, Syndergaard was able to debut in late 2010, while Nicolino missed an opportunity to pitch in his new organization.

The right handed Syndergaard was seen by many as a safety pick, after Toronto's first two draft picks were used on Deck McGuire and Aaron Sanchez, both of whom were known to be seeking overslot money. Given that he is a high school pitcher I'm not sure how anyone could consider him a "safe" pick, but regardless the Blue Jays were happy to see him fall into their laps at 38, and even happier that he signed early and was able to get on the field.

Despite signing early, Syndergaard made only 5 starts (13.1 IP) for the Blue Jays Gulf Coast affilate in an effort to control his workload in his first year with the organization.

Noah is a big kid, standing 6 foot 5 and weighing 200 lbs. With such a long, lean frame, it is believed that as he matures he will be capable of adding muscle mass and could see a spike in fastball velocity. He throws his 4-seamer in the low 90's, but is already capable of touching 94-95 mph. As he is in such a transitional phase physically, it's fun to speculate that he could see his fastball start sitting 92-94 mph and touching 96-97 mph a few years down the road, but, at the same time, pitching prospects are so unpredictable that it's just as possible his fastball has capped out at above average. In addition to his 4-seamer, he throws a decent curveball that has shown plus potential. Strong coaching could really making it a great pitch. As with most highschool arms, Syndergaard worked primarily with those two pitches, but has also worked in a mediocre changeup that is a work in progress. He hasn't shown a ton of feel for it yet, so it would be difficult to give it anything above average potential. Syndergaard is mentally strong as well, as entering his draft year he was considered a "pop-up prospect" -- a potential draftee who shot up draft charts in the spring. His agent mentioned in an interview with Jays Journal that the improvements which resulted in his draft stock skyrocketing were through hard work and an outstanding work ethic on Noah's part.

In his first full season with the Blue Jays, Syndergaard has split the year between Bluefield (Rookie League) and Vancouver (Short season Low-A). He has posted strong numbers, giving up only 32 hits and 7 earned runs in 41 innings. Just as impressively, he has struck out 49 batters and walked only 14. These numbers translate to a 1.54 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 3.50 K/BB, 10.76 K/9, and .211 BAA -- all of which are outstanding.

Despite being their 7th selection, the left handed Nicolino was taken in the 2nd round and, much like Syndergaard, was overshadowed by the bigger names in the top of Toronto's draft. As the 4th highschool pitcher drafted by the Blue Jays in 2010, Nicolino was a continuation of General Manager Alex Anthopolous' apparent goal of targeting high upside talent, regardless of the risk involved. As mentioned, Nicolino's overslot signing bonus was held back by Bud Selig and the Commissioners Office, making 2010 a lost year professionally.

Unlike Syndergaard, Justin Nicolino has an extremely wirey frame, standing 6 foot 3 and weighing only 160 lbs. Shockingly, that weight is a dramatic improvement upon his weight of 145 lbs in his highschool years, during which he he had trouble sitting in the mid 80's. Now slightly heavier, Nicholino works his fastball between 88 and 92 mph, and has the ability to paint the bottom corners. Nicolino features two offspeed pitches -- a high 70's changeup and a low 70's curveball. Unlike many highschool pitchers, Nicolino throws both offspeed pitches frequently, which is likely a big factor in his early professional success. His arm action is a little inconsistent between his fastball and changeup, but the delivery is relatively smooth for a pitcher of his age and development stage. Nicolino's greatest strengths may be his command and pitching IQ, both of which he developed while working with a below average repetoire. As his arsenal continues to improve while he matures physically, those tools should further accentuate his pure stuff, and may allow him to pitch above his natural ability.

Nicolino was assigned to short season Low-A, and he has been nothing short of dominant. In his 45 innings of work, he has allowed only 23 hits and 6 earned runs. He has walked 11, and struck out an outstanding 58 -- good for a 1.20 ERA, 0.76 WHIP, 5.27 K/BB, 11.60 K/9, and .151 BAA. These numbers are not floated simply by a strong outing or two either, Nicolino has been consistently dominant. In 6 of his 10 games, he allowed 1 or fewer hits. In 8 of his 10 starts, he allowed 1 or fewer walks. In 7 of his 10 starters, he struck out 5 batters or more (which is particularly impressive given his game limit of 5 innings per start). All of this translates into one of the most dominant stretches by any pitcher in the Blue Jays farm system in recent memory.

While both pitchers are years away from sniffing the Toronto rotation, they are most certainly two arms who deserve more attention than they have been getting. Toronto's prospect rankings are going to see a dramatic facelift entering 2012 due to promotions (Lawrie, Drabek, Arencibia), trades (Stewart), struggles (Perez, Wojciechowski) and surges (d'Arnaud, Alvarez, Marisnick, Hutchison, etc), which could allow prospects like Syndergaard and Nicolino to sneak into the 2012 top 15 and truly make a name for themselves.

#5: RHP Deck McGuire

Name: Deck McGuire
Position: Right-handed
Acquired: 1st round (2010)
Opening Day age: 21
Height/weight: 6'6", 220 lbs
Best/worst tool: Changeup/fastball

Scouting Report:

When he was drafted in the 1st round in the 2010 draft, the Blue Jays had a good idea of what they were getting because McGuire is not far from a finished product. McGuire's biggest strength is likely his lack of weaknesses. He throws an average fastball that sits 89-92 mph with a bit of sink, but nothing spectacular. McGuire also throws three offspeed pitches. His changeup is best pitch, and comes in around 80 mph with a lot of tail. His two other breaking pitches are an above average, mid 80's slider, and an average, looping mid 70's curveball. McGuire throws all four with above average command, and has a sound, repeatable delivery. His biggest flaw is his lack of overpowering stuff, as when his command is off or his offspeed pitches don't have bite, he can be hit around.

2010 Stats: N/A

2011 Stats: 98.2 IP, 87 H, 32 ER, 9 HR, 37 BB, 94 K
0.77 GO/AO, 2.92 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 8.57 K/9

2011 Analysis:

McGuire has met expectations in his first year of professional baseball. A highly polished college product, McGuire was sent to High-A Dunedin to succeed and he has done exactly that. His ERA is 6th in the FSL, and his 94 strikeouts rank 5th. McGuire was named a Mid-season All Star, and he has been the ace of a Dunedin pitching staff that has seen the likes of Wojciechowski, Hutchison, Jenkins, Molina, and Alvarez fill its ranks. His strong ERA is supported by strong peripheral stats, suggesting he is more than ready for a promotion to New Hampshire.

Future outlook:

As mentioned previously, McGuire has shown he can handle High-A and appears destined for Double-A New Hampshire sooner rather than later. Regardless of whether that promotion occurs late this year or out of Spring in 2012, he should spend most of the 2012 season in Double-A with the potential for a September callup if he performs well in the minors. He should compete for a rotation spot to start the 2013 season, and could be a main-stay in Toronto before June. He's unlikely to mature any more physically, so McGuire just needs to focus on continuing to learn how to pitch, particularly when his stuff isn't there.

Perfect world projection: A dependable, inning eating #3 MLB starter. McGuire lacks the top of the rotation potential of other Blue Jays prospects.

Worst case scenario: A #5 MLB starter if he fails to develop the consistency in his pitches required to thrive in the majors.

Most likely outcome: A fringe #3/#4 MLB starter. McGuire has a lot of polish and has minimal risks, so he should approach his ceiling.