Top 15 Prospect Review: Pitchers

#2: RHP Kyle Drabek

(MLB) 4-5, 5.47 ERA, 1.73 WHIP, 75.2 IP, 78 H, 46 ER, 53 BB, 51 K
(AAA) 5-4, 7.44 ERA, 2.03 WHIP, 75 IP, 111 H, 62 ER, 41 BB, 45 K

2011 Breakdown:

Prospect analysts are extremely happy that Drabek surpassed the inning limit to be eligible as a rookue (and thus no longer a prospect), because after the season Drabek has had, nobody knows what to think of him. Expectations were high entering the season as the #4 starter, but after a dominant first outing of the year against the Twins, Drabek's year fell apart. He completely lost his control, abandoned his dominanting curveball, and saw himself demoted to the minors. Incredibly, things actually got worse for Drabek in Las Vegas. At this point it's hard to have confidence in Drabek as top of the rotation starter, but luckily the slate will be clean in 2012 and he can try to re-establish himself. As a former top prospect and the pitcher acquired in the Roy Halladay trade, Drabek should deservingly be given every opportunity.

2012 Prospect Status: N/A (graduated from prospect status)

#5: RHP Deck McGuire

(AA) 2-1, 4.35 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 20.2 IP, 20 H, 10 ER, 7 BB, 22 K
(A+) 7-4, 2.75 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 104.2 IP, 89 H, 32 ER, 38 BB, 102 K

2011 Breakdown:

In his first professional year, Deck McGuire cruised through the Florida State League before earning a midseason promotion to the New Hampshire Fisher Cats. McGuire suffered a leg injury 4 games into his Double-A career, forcing him to miss the remainder of the regular season. When he was drafted back in the summer of 2010, McGuire was touted as a polished pitcher with four average to above average pitches and above average command who should progress through the minors quickly. Despite the injury, McGuire's 2011 season proved he can already handle the upper minors, and should see his major league debut sooner than later. While McGuire lacks the ceiling of some of Toronto's arms, his polish is second to none among this group.

2012 Prospect Status: Rising

#7: RHP Zach Stewart

(MLB) 2-5, 4.97 ERA, 1.52 WHIP, 63.1 IP, 78 H, 35 ER, 18 BB, 44 K
(AA) 5-5, 4.20 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, 94.1 IP, 106 H, 44 ER, 27 BB, 74 K

2011 Breakdown:

After a solid albeit unspectacular 2010 season in the Eastern League, Stewart was surprisingly re-assigned there at the end of spring training. He failed to match his 2010 production, though he did pitch well enough to make his big league debut as an injury replacement. Stewart was traded to the Chicago White Sox in late July as part of the Edwin Jackson - Colby Rasmus trade, and has since burned up the remainder of his rookie eligibility. Whether Stewart will be a back end starter or reliever is still up in the air, but that determination now belongs to the White Sox.

2012 Prospect Status: N/A (graduated from prospect status, traded to CHW)

#9: RHP Aaron Sanchez

(A-) 0-1, 4.63 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 11.2 IP, 8 H, 6 ER, 8 BB, 13 K
(R) 3-2, 5.48 ERA, 1.48 WHIP, 42.2 IP, 45 H, 26 ER, 18 BB, 43 K

2011 Breakdown:

Still in short-season ball, Sanchez had a very mixed season. Similar to his debut 2010 season the strikeouts were there, but Sanchez still struggled locating the strikezone and got hit around more than you'd like to see from a prospect with stuff like he has. The biggest positive from the season was that he stayed healthy and managed to put a decent amount of professional innings on his arm, creating the possibility of a Lansing assignment next spring. The step from short-season to full-season ball is a big one for a pitcher, and Sanchez could be doing it under a big spotlight. He might be joining a Lugnuts pitching rotation that will include Noah Syndergaard and Justin Nicolino, two of Toronto's breakout arms of 2011.

2012 Prospect Status: Comparable

#10: RHP Asher Wojciechowski

(A+) 11-9, 4.70 ERA, 1.43 WHIP, 130.1 IP, 156 H, 68 ER, 31 BB, 96 K

2011 Breakdown:

Wojo had himself a bipolar 2011 season. When he was good, he was awesome. When he was bad, he didn't belong on a baseball diamond. In April, July, August, and September, Wojciechowski went 9-2 with a 2.56 ERA and 1.19 WHIP. In the middle months of May and June, he went 2-7 with a 7.81 ERA and 1.79 WHIP. Many scouts believe Wojciechowski would be better utilized as a reliever, as even though he is built like an ox (6'4", 230 lbs), he lacks a strong 3rd pitch and his fastball can flatten out when he gets tired. Wojo could split 2012 between Dunedin and New Hampshire out start in Double-A outright, but either way it's very likely he'll be moved to the bullpen late in the season unless he really starts to dominate hitters.

2012 Prospect Status: Comparable

#14: RHP Drew Hutchison

(AA) 3-0, 1.20 ERA, 0.80 WHIP, 15 IP, 10 H, 2 ER, 2 BB, 21 K
(A+) 5-3, 2.74 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, 62.1 IP, 42 H, 19 ER, 14 BB, 66 K
(A) 6-2, 2.63 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 72 IP, 68 H, 21 ER, 19 BB, 84 K

2011 Breakdown:

Drew Hutchison had the best season of any pitching prospect in the Blue Jays system, raising his status from organizational afterthought to possible top 50 in baseball. Hutch cruised all the way from Single-A Lansing up to Double-A New Hampshire, where he was eventually shut down during the Eastern League playoffs after reaching his innings limit for the season (149.1). Hutchison's season was highlighted by a first-half scoreless streak of six plus starts. His 174 strikeouts were the most of any Blue Jays farmhand this year, while his ERA (2.53), WHIP (1.04), and opposing average (.220) each ranked second.

2012 Prospect Status: Rising

#15: RHP Chad Jenkins

(AA) 5-7, 4.13 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 100.1 IP, 93 H, 46 ER, 27 BB, 74 K
(A+) 4-5, 3.07 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 67.1 IP, 71 H, 23 ER, 14 BB, 44 K

2011 Breakdown:

Jenkins improved on his debut 2010 season with his 2011 numbers, but once again failed to prove he is going to be anything more than a back of the rotation innings eater -- not that there's anything wrong with that. Jenkins is a sinkerballer which will always inhibit the number of strikeouts he will accumulate, but he continued to limit base runners (2.20 BB/9, 1.22 WHIP) which bodes well for future success. The Blue Jays have a lot of high risk arms (Morrow, McGowan, Drabek, Alvarez to an extent), so a dependable pitcher like Jenkins could definitely find a niche on this team in the future.

2012 Prospect Status: Comparable

No more Jo-Jo, drastic changes await!

Early this afternoon, the Toronto Blue Jays officially announced they had designated pitcher Jo-Jo Reyes for assignment. This move puts Reyes in limbo for the next 10 days, during which the Blue Jays have an opportunity to work out a trade with any other team in baseball. If an agreement is reached, Reyes would immediately be placed on that team's active roster. Additionally, Reyes no longer holds a spot on Toronto's 40 man roster, lowering the Blue Jays total to 36 players. If no trade is consumated during that period, the Blue Jays can either attempt to pass him through waivers and re-assign him to the minor leagues, or hand him his outright release. As a corresponding move, Toronto purchased the contract of Wilfredo Ledezma from Las Vegas, adding him to the 40 man roster as well as the active, 25 man roster.

Reyes was acquired from the Braves last summer in the Yunel Escobar deal, and at the time, general manager Alex Anthopolous stated he would not have made the deal without the inclusion of the left hander. Reyes made 2 starts with the Blue Jays Double-A affiliate in New Hampshire last summer, before knee surgery ended his season in August. Reyes had an excellent track record in the minor leagues, and was given a legitimate shot in Spring Training 2011 to earn a spot in Toronto's starting rotation. He met the challenge, throwing 23 innings while allowing only 10 hits and 9 runs, walking 8, and striking out 18 (3.52 ERA, 0.78 WHIP).

That success did not translate into the regular season, as he averaged less than 5 innings per start in April and got hit around consistently. He peaked in May, pitching to decent numbers for a back-end starter and even ending his historically long winless drought. June, much like April, was another ugly month, but July was the straw that finally broke the camel's back. In 4 starts (21.1 IP), he allowed 34 hits and 19 earned runs, walked 7, and struck out only 5. His 5.40 season ERA looks bad, but his WHIP (1.59) and opposing slash line (entering last night -- .303/.360/.469, via @bluejaysbatboy) are absolutely disgusting.

Replacing him, atleast temporarily, is the aformentioned Wilfredo Ledezma. A big lefty (6'4", 225 lbs), Ledezma had been working out of Triple-A Las Vegas' bullpen. Since making the transition to the pen in 2007, his fastball has averaged between 92.5 and 93.7 mph, which is very strong for a left hander. In addition to his fastball, he also throws a slider in the low to mid 80's, and even throws a changeup every once in a while. It's a decent repetoire, but Ledezma has struggled with walks while in the majors, which has forced him to bounce between organizations looking for another shot.

I mentioned temporarily, because I don't foresee Ledezma staying in Toronto particularly long. Luis Perez was optioned to Las Vegas on July 19th to make room for Casey Janssen, and as such he cannot return to the majors until the 29th (10 days later) unless an opening is created by an injury requiring a DL-stint. Perez made his major league debut this season and has been a valuable asset out of the bullpen, posting strong strikeout, walk, groundball, and left-on-base rates. It is doubtful Toronto wants to keep him in Triple-A, and I imagine he will be back on August 1st.

Today's transactions once again put the pitching staff in flux. The team is now down a starter, leaving a vacancy for Reyes' next turn in the rotation (July 28th, vs BAL).

Additionally, tonight's starter Carlos Villanueva has already thrown 84.1 innings this year, and after throwing only 67 innings last year, he is likely approaching his limit as a starter. During April when he worked exclusively as a reliever, he threw 14.2 innings. If he pitches 6 innings tonight and then works exclusively as a reliever for August and September, he's looking at around 120 innings on the year, which would be more than he's pitched in a season since 2006. Villanueva is a useful pitcher, and if we don't want to Brian Tallet his arm, Texas should be his last start. That would create yet another void in the rotation behind Romero, Morrow, and Cecil.

The first, and most pressing roster move, is to find a starter for Thursday's game. There is likely 3 candidates for that start; Jesse Litsch, Zach Stewart, and Brad Mills. Litsch last pitched for Las Vegas on the 20th, so for him to take Reyes' spot he would either need to pitch on extended rest, or have the rotation rearrange itself so he could pitch on the 30th. Mills pitched last night for Las Vegas, struggling through 7 innings (11 H, 7 ER). Despite that start, Mills has pitched extremely well in the PCL, and is a strong candidate for promotion. Stewart also made his most recent start last night (with New Hampshire), and, almost like he knew there would be an opening in the rotation, he threw his best game of the year. He went 7.2 innings, allowing 6 hits and 1 run. He walked 1, and struck out 8 batters, picking up the win.

Given the circumstances, I imagine Stewart will be the one getting the call on the the 28th. He would be on regular rest, is coming off his best start of the season, has already been with Toronto this year, and made his first (and best) career start against the same Orioles he would be facing. Mills and Litsch would be likely be the main competitors for Villanueva's spot when he returns to the bullpen, but someone like Joel Carreno could be considered a dark horse for that spot.

The second set of roster moves will likely occur closer to the trade deadline. The Blue Jays possess a number of veteran relief pitchers with favorable contracts, and with so many teams in contention this year, the demand is likely to be strong. With the overflow of pitchers both currently in the majors or in the minors awaiting their turn, I expect Alex Anthopolous to move atleast 2 of his 5 veteran relievers (Camp, Dotel, Francisco, Frasor, Rauch).

If I had to make a prediction for the August 1st pitching staff, it would be as follows:

Rotation:

Romero (L)
Morrow
Cecil (L)
Stewart
Mills (L)

Bullpen:

Rauch
Frasor
Rzepczynski (L)
Francisco
Perez (L)
Janssen
Villanueva

In this scenario, Dotel and Camp would be traded. I won't even attempt to predict the team they would go to or the compensation received. Ledezma would be outrighted to the minor leagues (if he gets claimed, which is doubtful, so be it). Litsch and Drabek would remain with Triple-A until September, unless an injury arises.

Finally, there is the fate of Jo-Jo Reyes. While I am sure the Blue Jays hope he can clear waivers (assuming they don't trade him), I find it doubtful. He is still young and has a decent fastball/slider/changeup arsenal. While he has definitively proven he can't pitch in the AL East, the NL Central and NL West always seem to have teams willing to take on cheap projects. I can see the Astros, Dodgers, and Padres as potential fits for Reyes, where he could act as either a 5th starter or lefty reliever.

Regardless of the order in which the events occur, it is clear that the Blue Jays are preparing themselves for some pretty dramatic roster changes, and over the next week the Blue Jays will definitely be a team to watch.

#7: RHP Zach Stewart

Name: Zachary Stewart
Position: Right-handed SP
Acquired: Trade with Cincinnati in August 2009 (drafted 3rd round, 2008)
Opening Day age: 24
Height/weight: 6'2", 205 lbs
Best/worst tool: Fastball/changeup

Scouting Report:

When originally acquired from Cincinnati, Zach Stewart was acting as a reliever due to his impressive fastball - slider combination. Both pitches are plus offerings, with the fastball sitting 90-94 mph while touching as high as 97 and having sinking action. His slider, whose biggest issue is it's inconsistency, sits in the low to mid 80's and he throws it primarily to the outer half of the plate with similar horizontal and vertical break. Stewart also throws a changeup, and since Toronto shifted him to a starting role he has been asked to use it far more often than he did as a reliever. The changeup is still a work in progress pitch, as when it is working Stewart can be very dominant pitcher. However, when it is off he often completely abandons the pitch and hitters take advantage of his two pitch repetoire. This is likely a maturity/confidence issue, and it's possible it could be coached out of him. Stewart's command is above average, as his 3.25 BB/9 over the past 2 seasons can attest.

2010 Stats: 136.1 IP, 131 H, 55 ER, 13 HR, 54 BB, 106 K
1.31 GO/AO, 3.63 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, 7.00 K/9

2010 Analysis:

Zach Stewart spent the entire 2010 season with New Hampshire, his first year exclusively as a starter. While spending the year playing second fiddle to Kyle Drabek, Stewart was still impressive, albeit unspectacular. His strikeout rate was low, particularly for a 23 year old working the Eastern League with stuff like Stewart's. One possible explanation may be his focus on developing his changeup, or possibly an attempt to reduce his overall workload by pitching to contact and getting deeper into games.

2011 Stats (MiLB): 79.2 IP, 94 H, 40 ER, 5 HR, 24 BB, 59 K
1.18 GO/AO, 4.52 ERA, 1.48 WHIP, 6.67 K/9

2011 Stats (MLB): 16.2 IP, 26 H, 9 ER, 2 HR, 5 BB, 10 K
0.83 GO/AO, 4.86 ERA, 1.86 WHIP, 5.41 K/9

2011 Analysis:

Stewart has split the 2011 season between New Hampshire and Toronto, with his major league debut coming as a three game audition during late June. His overall numbers took a step back from his 2010 pitching line, which is a bit concerning considering he is repeating the level and is now 24 years old. The largest difference is his hits allowed, as his batting average against went from .255 in 2010 to .296 in 2011. This could be for a number of reasons, none of which could be known without advanced metrics or by watching the games themselves.

He made 3 starts with Toronto, with one being good (vs BAL), one being mediocre (@ DET), and one being awful (@ATL). Given the strength of the offenses he faced, the pitching lines aren't particularly surprising. He showed that he can perform as a major league starter when his changeup is working, but when it's not, such as against Atlanta, he is going to be lit up. You can't survive as a major league starter with two pitches.

Future outlook:

Zach Stewart will be 25 years old at the end of the 2011 season, so the remainder of this season and Spring Training 2012 is the time for Stewart to show what he has and that he belongs. The Blue Jays are going to have a full rotation with higher upside pitcher for the remainder of the season, so it might be best for Stewart to follow suit with Marc Rzepczynski and make the transition to a reliever. The Blue Jays have a number of veteran pitchers who could be moved at the trade deadline (Francisco, Rauch, Dotel, Frasor), which could free up bullpen positions for excess young starters like Zach Stewart.

Perfect world projection: A #3 starter, if his changeup can be consistently average.

Worst case scenario: A middle relief pitcher, as his fastball/slider/command will ensure he reaches the major leagues and can stay there.

Most likely outcome: A #5 starter on a mediocre team or a late inning reliever on a playoff contender if his changeup can atleast be a show-me pitch.