Making the Grade: The Bullpen

The second segment of "Making the Grade" will be Toronto's bullpen pitchers. Due to injuries, callups, and roster moves to and from the rotation, the bullpen saw a plethora of different faces throughout the year. This list will be for pitchers who finished the season in the major league bullpen, or who made at least 10 relief appearances for the club throughout the duration of the season.

Part I Making the Grade: The Starters
Part III Making the Grade: The Infield
Part IV Making the Grade: The Outfield

RHP Frank Francisco (32)
1-4, 50.2 IP, 49 H, 20 ER, 7 HR, 18 BB, 53 K
3.55 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 2.94 K/BB, 9.41 K/9, 0.78 GO/AO

Francisco took a lot of grief during his first year in Toronto, but that has to be at least partially attributed to the success of the man he was traded for (Napoli). In terms of xFIP, Francisco performed extremely similar to how he did in his last 3 seasons with Texas, so it's hard to say he performed below expectations. Frank's biggest problem in Toronto came during the spring when he was reluctant to follow the team's throwing program, which led to an early season injury and massive struggles upon his return.

Grade: B

RHP Casey Janssen (30)
6-0, 55.2 IP, 47 H, 14 ER, 2 HR, 14 BB, 53 K
2.26 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 3.79 K/BB, 8.57 K/9, 1.38 GO/AO

Casey Janssen was easily the best Blue Jays relief pitcher from the beginning to the end of the year, which makes it even more disheartening that he was the odd man out when a pitcher needed to be sent to Triple-A to make room on the roster. Thankfully, Janssen is now out of minor league options, so a repeat will not occur next year. With Francisco and Rauch possibly on the outs, Janssen could have a huge role in the back end of the 2012 bullpen.

Grade: A

RHP Jon Rauch (33)
5-4, 52 IP, 56 H, 28 ER, 11 HR, 14 BB, 36 K
4.85 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 2.57 K/BB, 6.23 K/9, 0.66 GO/AO

When you look at John Rauch in a baseball uniform, you expect he blows hitters away without breaking a sweat. Rauch stands 6'10" tall and weighs 290 lbs, yet his fastball averaged only 89.5 mph in 2011. Not only does it show below average velocity but the fastball is flat, which is borderline incomprehensible given Rauch's height. With such long arms and a downward plane to the plate, Rauch should live at the bottom of the plate. He didn't, which resulted in an awful GO/AO ratio and a ton of home runs. His struggles were even more glaring given that he spent most of the year working in the back end of the bullpen.

Grade: D

LHP Luis Perez (26)
3-3, 65 IP, 74 H, 37 ER, 9 HR, 27 BB, 54 K
5.12 ERA, 1.55 WHIP, 2.00 K/BB, 7.48 K/9, 2.27 GO/AO

Perez' above pitching line does not justify how strong of a season he had before imploding in September. Entering September, Perez had a 3.29 ERA, 1.34 WHIP and 45 strikeouts in 54.2 innings, but two bad games in the first week of the month will tarnish what was otherwise an excellent rookie season. Perez was hugely effective against lefties for much of the year, and could find himself in a Marc Rzepczynski-esque late inning role next season.

Grade: B-

RHP Carlos Villanueva (27)
6-4, 107 IP, 103 H, 48 ER, 11 HR, 32 BB, 68 K
4.04 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 2.13 K/BB, 5.72 K/9, 0.70 GO/AO

Villanueva was easily the most versatile arm on Toronto's roster this year, and if not for a case of over-working during the summer he would have far more impressive numbers. He was dynamic as a reliever, putting together a 1.60 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, and 26 strikeouts in 20 relief appearances (33.2 IP). He was moved to the rotation in late May and pitched well for a few starts before his effectiveness clearly began to drop off. Despite the clearly looming implosion on its way, Villanueva was left in the rotation until his August 3rd start in which he allowed 8 runs in 2.2 innings. After the start, he was unsurprisingly placed on the 15 day DL with arm soreness, as I predicted in this post on July 23rd. Regardless, I place the blame for his implosion solely on the coaching staff for their short sightedness -- as a reliever, Villanueva was very effective.

Grade: B+

RHP Jesse Litsch (26)
6-3, 75 IP, 69 H, 37 ER, 10 HR, 28 BB, 66 K
4.44 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 2.36 K/BB, 7.92 K/9, 1.25 GO/AO

I have never been a fan of Jesse Litsch as a starter, but I was pleasantly surprised at what I saw from Litsch out of the bullpen late this season. In the shorter appearances Litsch was able to go for the strikeout more effectively while managing to retain his strong groundball rate. He didn't display a velocity spike while working as a reliever, but it's possible that an offseason with workouts focused more on strength than endurance could boost his four seam fastball up to the 90-92 mph range more consistently.

Grade: B

RHP Shawn Camp (35)
6-3, 66.1 IP, 79 H, 31 ER, 3 HR, 22 BB, 32 K
4.21 ERA, 1.52 WHIP, 1.45 K/BB, 4.34 K/9, 1.83 GO/AO

After a strong spring, Shawn Camp's season took a horrific twist and made me start wondering aloud whether or not he had anything left in the tank. After putting together a 2.42 ERA and 1.15 WHIP through April and May, Camp completely unravelled through the summer. His 6.75 ERA, 2.05 WHIP and 14-13 K/BB ratio from June through August -- often in crucial, late game situations -- left a sour taste in my mouth. Camper has never been a big strikeout guy, but his strikeout rate has now fallen for 5 consecutive seasons (8.10, 7.09, 6.55, 5.72, 4.34), reaching what I consider an unacceptable level. His groundball rate is still impressive so it's possible Camp could rebound next season in lower leverage situations -- perhaps as the 6th or 7th arm -- but those are normally roles reserved for converted starters or young pitchers, not veterans with over 400 career appearances under his belt.

Grade: D

RHP Joel Carreno (24)
1-0, 15.2 IP, 11 H, 2 ER, 1 HR, 4 BB, 14 K
1.15 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, 3.50 K/BB, 8.04 K/9, 1.50 GO/AO

Carreno did everything that was asked of him and more after earning a late season callup from Double-A. Originally deployed as a long-man during Dustin McGowan's starts, Carreno developed into much more in his one month in the big leagues. Using primarily a fastball-slider mix, Carreno gets plenty of strikeouts and groundballs, the two things you want from a late inning reliever. While his walk rate looks good, it's likely a small sample size issue and more walks could come as more hitters see him and learn to hold back.

Grade: A

RHP Chad Beck (26)
0-0, 2.1 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 0 HR, 0 BB, 3 K
0.00 ERA, 0.43 WHIP, 3/0 K/BB, 11.57 K/9, 1.00 GO/AO

While Chad Beck falls short of the 10 appearance minimum to make this list, I felt compelled to include him as he could spend a significant amount of time in the major league bullpen next season. In addition to having a similar build, Beck's repetoire is similar to that of Frank Francisco, as he features a mid-to-high 90's four-seam fastball and a mid 80's splitter with some late bite. Beck made only 3 appearances, but looked major league ready.

Grade: B

No more Jo-Jo, drastic changes await!

Early this afternoon, the Toronto Blue Jays officially announced they had designated pitcher Jo-Jo Reyes for assignment. This move puts Reyes in limbo for the next 10 days, during which the Blue Jays have an opportunity to work out a trade with any other team in baseball. If an agreement is reached, Reyes would immediately be placed on that team's active roster. Additionally, Reyes no longer holds a spot on Toronto's 40 man roster, lowering the Blue Jays total to 36 players. If no trade is consumated during that period, the Blue Jays can either attempt to pass him through waivers and re-assign him to the minor leagues, or hand him his outright release. As a corresponding move, Toronto purchased the contract of Wilfredo Ledezma from Las Vegas, adding him to the 40 man roster as well as the active, 25 man roster.

Reyes was acquired from the Braves last summer in the Yunel Escobar deal, and at the time, general manager Alex Anthopolous stated he would not have made the deal without the inclusion of the left hander. Reyes made 2 starts with the Blue Jays Double-A affiliate in New Hampshire last summer, before knee surgery ended his season in August. Reyes had an excellent track record in the minor leagues, and was given a legitimate shot in Spring Training 2011 to earn a spot in Toronto's starting rotation. He met the challenge, throwing 23 innings while allowing only 10 hits and 9 runs, walking 8, and striking out 18 (3.52 ERA, 0.78 WHIP).

That success did not translate into the regular season, as he averaged less than 5 innings per start in April and got hit around consistently. He peaked in May, pitching to decent numbers for a back-end starter and even ending his historically long winless drought. June, much like April, was another ugly month, but July was the straw that finally broke the camel's back. In 4 starts (21.1 IP), he allowed 34 hits and 19 earned runs, walked 7, and struck out only 5. His 5.40 season ERA looks bad, but his WHIP (1.59) and opposing slash line (entering last night -- .303/.360/.469, via @bluejaysbatboy) are absolutely disgusting.

Replacing him, atleast temporarily, is the aformentioned Wilfredo Ledezma. A big lefty (6'4", 225 lbs), Ledezma had been working out of Triple-A Las Vegas' bullpen. Since making the transition to the pen in 2007, his fastball has averaged between 92.5 and 93.7 mph, which is very strong for a left hander. In addition to his fastball, he also throws a slider in the low to mid 80's, and even throws a changeup every once in a while. It's a decent repetoire, but Ledezma has struggled with walks while in the majors, which has forced him to bounce between organizations looking for another shot.

I mentioned temporarily, because I don't foresee Ledezma staying in Toronto particularly long. Luis Perez was optioned to Las Vegas on July 19th to make room for Casey Janssen, and as such he cannot return to the majors until the 29th (10 days later) unless an opening is created by an injury requiring a DL-stint. Perez made his major league debut this season and has been a valuable asset out of the bullpen, posting strong strikeout, walk, groundball, and left-on-base rates. It is doubtful Toronto wants to keep him in Triple-A, and I imagine he will be back on August 1st.

Today's transactions once again put the pitching staff in flux. The team is now down a starter, leaving a vacancy for Reyes' next turn in the rotation (July 28th, vs BAL).

Additionally, tonight's starter Carlos Villanueva has already thrown 84.1 innings this year, and after throwing only 67 innings last year, he is likely approaching his limit as a starter. During April when he worked exclusively as a reliever, he threw 14.2 innings. If he pitches 6 innings tonight and then works exclusively as a reliever for August and September, he's looking at around 120 innings on the year, which would be more than he's pitched in a season since 2006. Villanueva is a useful pitcher, and if we don't want to Brian Tallet his arm, Texas should be his last start. That would create yet another void in the rotation behind Romero, Morrow, and Cecil.

The first, and most pressing roster move, is to find a starter for Thursday's game. There is likely 3 candidates for that start; Jesse Litsch, Zach Stewart, and Brad Mills. Litsch last pitched for Las Vegas on the 20th, so for him to take Reyes' spot he would either need to pitch on extended rest, or have the rotation rearrange itself so he could pitch on the 30th. Mills pitched last night for Las Vegas, struggling through 7 innings (11 H, 7 ER). Despite that start, Mills has pitched extremely well in the PCL, and is a strong candidate for promotion. Stewart also made his most recent start last night (with New Hampshire), and, almost like he knew there would be an opening in the rotation, he threw his best game of the year. He went 7.2 innings, allowing 6 hits and 1 run. He walked 1, and struck out 8 batters, picking up the win.

Given the circumstances, I imagine Stewart will be the one getting the call on the the 28th. He would be on regular rest, is coming off his best start of the season, has already been with Toronto this year, and made his first (and best) career start against the same Orioles he would be facing. Mills and Litsch would be likely be the main competitors for Villanueva's spot when he returns to the bullpen, but someone like Joel Carreno could be considered a dark horse for that spot.

The second set of roster moves will likely occur closer to the trade deadline. The Blue Jays possess a number of veteran relief pitchers with favorable contracts, and with so many teams in contention this year, the demand is likely to be strong. With the overflow of pitchers both currently in the majors or in the minors awaiting their turn, I expect Alex Anthopolous to move atleast 2 of his 5 veteran relievers (Camp, Dotel, Francisco, Frasor, Rauch).

If I had to make a prediction for the August 1st pitching staff, it would be as follows:

Rotation:

Romero (L)
Morrow
Cecil (L)
Stewart
Mills (L)

Bullpen:

Rauch
Frasor
Rzepczynski (L)
Francisco
Perez (L)
Janssen
Villanueva

In this scenario, Dotel and Camp would be traded. I won't even attempt to predict the team they would go to or the compensation received. Ledezma would be outrighted to the minor leagues (if he gets claimed, which is doubtful, so be it). Litsch and Drabek would remain with Triple-A until September, unless an injury arises.

Finally, there is the fate of Jo-Jo Reyes. While I am sure the Blue Jays hope he can clear waivers (assuming they don't trade him), I find it doubtful. He is still young and has a decent fastball/slider/changeup arsenal. While he has definitively proven he can't pitch in the AL East, the NL Central and NL West always seem to have teams willing to take on cheap projects. I can see the Astros, Dodgers, and Padres as potential fits for Reyes, where he could act as either a 5th starter or lefty reliever.

Regardless of the order in which the events occur, it is clear that the Blue Jays are preparing themselves for some pretty dramatic roster changes, and over the next week the Blue Jays will definitely be a team to watch.

The mysterious case of Luis Perez

When Jesse Litsch went down with an arm injury in May, causing then long-guy Carlos Villanueva to slide into the rotation, a distinct void was created in the bullpen. In the first month and a half of the season, many starters had been pulled early in ballgames due to either injury or ineffectiveness, and Villanueva proved himself invaluable as he stepped in and threw multiple innings, saving some of the other arms. Villanueva's value didn't lie solely as an inning eater, as in his 13 appearances (24.1 IP) he pitched to a 1.48 ERA and 0.82 WHIP to go along with 21 strikeouts. He kept the Blue Jays in games that they didn't deserve to have a chance at winning.

As I mentioned, his promotion left a void in the bullpen, with no suitable long man in place. Shawn Camp had proven capable of going multiple innings on occasion, but he has shown to be best used in the late innings when a ground ball is absolutely needed. Luis Perez, a Triple-A Las Vegas starting pitcher who had made a few spot appearances earlier in the year, was chosen to take Villanueva's spot.

Luis Perez has been a bit of an enigma in the Blue Jays system since being signed as an undrafted free agent in the summer of 2003. He served exclusively as a starting pitcher and performed extremely well in his first 3 years, averaging over a strikeout per inning and with a GO/AO ratio around 3 -- two things you always look for in young pitchers, strikeouts and groundouts. Once he reached Double-A in 2009, with the trend continuing through 2010, Perez saw his strikeout rate plummet and his GO/AO ratio fall to below 2.4 (still exceptional, but a noticable drop off). In addition to these two key rates falling, both his walk rate and homerun numbers increased, causing his ERA to balloon to a career worst 5.40 in 2010.

Prior to 2011 I had never seen Luis Perez pitch, and as such my opinion of him changed on a regular basis, usually depending upon whose scouting report I'm reading. At the end of last year I had soured on Perez, even suggesting he could be removed from the 40-man and exposed to the Rule 5 draft late last year, as I considered him nothing more than organizational depth. However, after finally watching him pitch, I'm elated that Anthopolous did not give up on him. Perez works a solid three pitch repetoire consisting of a fastball, slider, and changeup. The fastball is hard, averaging ~93 mph thus far, and also carries a lot of sink, which when combined with his slider creates a ton of ground balls. The effectiveness of his fastball came as quite a shock to me. I was aware of it's sharp sink, but I was hearing that he worked 88-89, not 92-93. For a sinkerballer, particularly a left hander, that's the difference between an average offering and a plus pitch. Additionally, he appears to have put a lot of effort into his changeup. He doesn't throw it particularly often -- he works primarily with his sinker -- but the fact that he is capable and willing to throw it adds another dimension for hitters to be concerned with.

While there are examples of short pitchers having success in the major leagues, it's primarily in the bullpen, which is where I think Perez will work in Toronto. For every Roy Oswalt, there are probably 5-10 Jason Frasors. His height isn't the biggest issue, however, as Perez weighs in at a slim 160 lbs. While he has proven capable of throwing 100 pitches in an outing in the minors, one has to question how well his stuff would translate into the 7th inning on a regular basis, facing major league hitters in highly stressful situations. If Perez gets tired and his sinker flattens out, he's likely to get shelled as his slider and changeup aren't good enough to carry the load.

With that being said, I have really enjoyed watching Luis Perez work this year, and I hope that when/if Villanueva returns to the bullpen we are still able to find him a spot in Toronto. Minor league numbers for the past few years aside, it's clear to me that Perez is capable of pitching in the major leagues. The bullpen is likely to once again undergo a major facelift this summer/fall (I don't expect any of Francisco, Rauch, or Dotel to be here in 2012), and I'd be quite comfortable if Perez was the long guy or a middle reliever here for the next couple years.