Matt Garza's Trade Value

Regardless of what Cubs General Manager Theo Epstein may say, Matt Garza is available through trade, and with Trevor Cahill and Matt Latos already wearing new uniforms, it's more than likely he's the best starting pitcher available. Due to their desire for pitching and their wealth of moveable prospects, Toronto has been one of the teams most frequently linked to Garza, and rightfully so -- he would look outstanding alongside Ricky Romero and Brandon Morrow in the top half of a rotation. What is distressing me the most, however, is the prospects -- or rather packages of prospects -- that are reportedly in play in the discussions.

I keep trying to remind myself that it's Toronto we're dealing with here, and this team has a strict policy against releasing any kind of information to the media. So while Cubs writers and reporters keep throwing around names like Henderson Alvarez, Noah Syndergaard, Jake Marisnick, Anthony Gose, Deck McGuire and so on as "good fits", such speculation should be taken with a grain of salt. Still, it bothers me.

Three big name starting pitchers have been traded this offseason -- Matt Latos, Trevor Cahill, and Gio Gonzalez -- but none of those situations were drastically similar to that of Matt Garza. In terms of age and service time, the differences are pretty huge.

Trevor Cahill
- 2012 Opening Day age: 24
- Service time: 3 years
- Under contract through 2015 (4 years, 28.7M remaining) with club options for 2016 (13M, 0.3M buyout) and 2017 (13.5M, 0.5M buyout)
- 2011 WARP: 0.7
- Traded to ARZ for RHP Jarrod Parker, RHP Ryan Cook, OF Collin Cowgill

Matt Latos
- 2012 Opening Day age: 24
- Service time: 2 years, 79 days
- Under team control through 2015
- 2011 WARP: 2.5
- Traded to CIN for 1B Yonder Alonso, C Yasmani Grandal, RHP Edison Volquez, RHP Brad Boxberger

Gio Gonzalez
- 2012 Opening Day age: 26
- Service time: 2 years, 162 days
- Under team control through 2015
- 2011 WARP: 2.4
- Traded to WSH for RHP A.J. Cole, RHP Brad Peacock, C Derek Norris, LHP Tom Milone

Matt Garza
- 2012 Opening Day age: 28
- Service time: 4 years, 149 days
- Under team control through 2013, 2012 salary > 5.95M
- 2011 WARP: 2.9
- Traded to ???

In comparison to the other three, Matt Garza is the oldest by 2 years, has the most service time (and therefore the least team control), and will have the highest salary by far in 2012. Arbitration figures have yet to be exchanged, but Garza will likely be seeking an 8M contract after earning nearly 6M while putting together his best statistical season with the Cubs. Without an extension being signed, Garza is likely to command close to 20M over his 2 years of control, after which he would become a free agent. So the question that needs to be asked is, how much should a team be willing to give up in a trade so that they can pay Matt Garza 20M for the next 2 years, with no guarantees after that? In my opinion the service time is the biggest factor, and therefore it should certainly be less than what the Diamondbacks, Reds, and Nationals paid for their pitchers. In fact, I think the best comparison for compensation is a player that Blue Jays fans know very well.

Shaun Marcum
- 2011 Opening Day age: 29
- Service time: 4 years, 128 days
- Under team control through 2012
- 2010 WARP: 3.1
- Traded to MIL for 3B Brett Lawrie

At the time of his trade, Marcum was roughly a year older than Garza despite having very similar service times. They both had two years left of team control, and produced nearly identical WARP values in the season prior to being traded. One big difference between the two was salary, as while Garza is set to receive a big raise on his 5.85M salary, Marcum made only 0.85M in 2010, and settled with the Brewers for 3.95M in 2011. However, the biggest difference between the two is their injury histories, which cannot be disregarded. For Garza, he's been placed on the disabled list twice in his career, once in 2008 and once in 2011. Both injuries were to his elbow, but one was simply a bruise while the other was nerve inflammation. He missed a total of 35 days across the two DL stints. For Marcum, the injury file is a bit thicker. In the summer of 2008, he spent 33 days on disabled list due to a strain in his pitching elbow. The injury was reaggravated in September, forcing him to go under the knife for Tommy John surgery, wiping out his entire 2009 season. He spent another 16 days on the DL in 2010 for elbow inflammation, but thankfully on this occasion it was to his non-throwing arm.

With this in mind, it's clear that while their team control and production were similar, Marcum's risk factor was much higher and outweighed his favorable salary, diminishing his trade value. In exchange for Marcum, Toronto received a prospect by the name of Brett Lawrie, who was ranked as baseball's 40th best prospect by Baseball America, and 57th by Baseball Prospectus.

With that ranking in mind, the player most similar in Toronto's farm system might be Anthony Gose or Jake Marisnick, as they're both position players likely to fall somewhere in the 30-60 range of prospect lists. They would also fill the reported need by Chicago of a young center fielder, though I'm not sure what that says about their current #1 prospect, a center fielder by the name of Brett Jackson. If the Cubs were interested in a pitcher as the main piece of a Matt Garza deal (which frankly would make more sense), Noah Syndergaard, Justin Nicolino, Aaron Sanchez, Drew Hutchison, or Deck McGuire would be good targets. The first three have the most upside, but McGuire and Hutchison are much closer to the big leagues and have far lower risk factors.

All of those prospects would be in play, but most of the 2 or 3 for 1 deals that Theo Epstein will be peddling should be out of the question. It's almost guaranteed that all of those prospects will be on top 100 lists, and shouldn't be packaged together for a player like Garza -- the service time (or lack thereof) is too big of a road block. The best deal I could justify for the Cubs would be one of Marisnick and Gose, plus Deck McGuire. Any package deal that includes one of the center fielders plus one of the high upside arms (Syndergaard, Nicolino, Sanchez, Hutchison) is too much for my tastes, particularly for a team like Toronto who doesn't have immediate playoff aspirations. Had Toronto signed Prince Fielder the situation would be different, but with the currently assembled roster, Garza falls under "want" not "need".

Blue Jays showed interest in Carlos Quentin

According to Jon Heyman of CBS Sports, the Blue Jays were recently engaged in conversations with the White Sox regardling outfielder Carlos Quentin. He continues to say that the talks have since cooled, and the White Sox are speaking to other teams. If this rumor is true -- which, with Alex Anthopolous you never know -- it speaks volumes about how the front office feels about our current left field situation, namely Travis Snider and Eric Thames.

Eric Thames had a decent debut, but I've always been a Travis Snider supporter in this discussion. Snider was the higher draft pick, and had greater minor league success while facing his opposition at a younger age. He's a vastly superior defender, and has middle of the order potential with the bat. Thames is a below average defender in left, and likely has a future as a platoon outfielder on a 2nd division team.

While I still have faith in Lunchbox, it appears the front office might be leaning in a third direction -- a direction that includes neither Thames nor Snider. Quentin hasn't been the same since his MVP-calibre 2008 season with Chicago, when he produced a .288/.394/.571 (.965 OPS) batting line to go along with 26 doubles, 36 home runs, and 100 runs batted in. He likely would have won the award, too, if he hadn't missed the last month of the season due to a wrist injury. In three seasons since, he has struggled with both injuries and his bat. His 131 games in 2010 set a career high, while his .254 batting average in 2011 was his best since 2008. He's more of a .250/.340/.480 hitter these days, which seems good, but when you factor in his poor defense and expected 2012 salary (roughly 7M), he suddenly becomes far less appealing.

If Toronto wants to make an upgrade in left field (which I consider to be a low priority), fine, but they should seek out something better than a 29 year old, expensive, 1 dimensional player. Quentin's ceiling at this point in his career is a 3 WAR player, and I feel a Snider/Davis platoon in left field should out-produce Quentin with ease. Additionally, with Toronto's apparent desire for cost certainty and controlability, Snider and Davis would combine to make half of Quentin's expected 2012 salary.

The only way a Carlos Quentin trade would make sense would be if Toronto were pushing all in for the 2012 season, and they didn't want to risk Snider capsizing again and weakening the lineup. However, considering their public reluctance to even consider Prince Fielder and their smokescreen/blanket statements regarding Yu Darvish, that does not appear to be the case. I won't call 2012 a rebuilding year because it's not, but at this point it appears to be another developmental year. Why waste a developmental year on a guy like Carlos Quentin, when you can use it as an opportunity to give Snider the 400+ AB he deserves and actually see what he has?

Sergio Santos returns to Toronto

The Blue Jays have found their closer. He's not named Jonathan Papelbon, Heath Bell, or Huston Street, but his name should still be familar to Blue Jays fans. Sergio Santos. Santos is a former 1st round pick by the Arizona Diamondbacks, and was traded to the Blue Jays in December of 2005 along side Troy Glaus in exchange for Orlando Hudson and Miguel Batista. He played parts of two seasons in the Blue Jays system before being claimed on waivers in May 2008 by the Minnesota Twins.

He played the remainder of the 2008 season with the Twins, but continued to struggle at the plate. The Twins granted him his release at the end of the season, and Santos found himself a home with the White Sox. Or at least he thought he did. The White Sox traded him to the San Francisco Giants in March 2009, but by April, he was back with the White Sox. Needless to say, he's a very well travelled man.

After being reacquired by Chicago, both he and the team decided it would be best to make a position switch. Santos is a big bodied man at 6'2", 230 lbs, and was always a little large for shortstop. However, instead of moving him to third base, the White Sox converted him to a relief pitcher, where his powerful arm could truly be on display.

To the surprise of no one, Santos' first year as a pitcher didn't go smoothly. He pitched in 26 games across four levels between Single-A and Triple-A, posting an 8.16 ERA and 1.99 WHIP. There were some positive signs, however, as Santos put together a 9.42 K/9, frequently overmatching hitters with his power fastball. The most surprising aspect of his debut pitching season was the life on his slider. Given his arm strength the fastball was expected, but the White Sox had no way to foresee such an impressive breaking pitch developing so quickly.

The fastball - slider combination was impressive enough that Santos earned himself an invitation to Spring Training with the White Sox. Santos appeared in 10 games (10.1 innings), striking out 16 batters despite an unimpressive 1.55 WHIP. Santos was out of options, and he showed enough that the White Sox did not want to attempt to pass him through waivers. He made the team out of the spring, and he did nothing but make the front office look brilliant in his rookie season. He continued to struggle with his WHIP (driven by an unimpressive 4.5 BB/9), but put together an outstanding 2.96 ERA fueled by 56 strikeouts in 51.2 innings.

He took his game a step further in 2011 season, and due to Bobby Jenks being granted his walking papers and Matt Thornton struggling, Santos found himself in the White Sox closer role. His walk rate (4.1 BB/9) improved slightly but was still an issue. Santos' dominance came through completely overpowering hitters when he was able to get the ball near the strikezone, causing his strikeout rate to explode to 13.1 K/9 and hit rate to plummet to 5.8 H/9. His ERA rose to 3.55, but his FIP (2.87) and xFIP (2.69) -- the numbers a pitcher can control -- were still both on the level of dominance. His impressive numbers earned him a longterm contract late in the season, as Santos signed a 3 year, 8.25M deal that includes 3 team options. As has been said many times on Twitter already, the contract almost looks like it was designed by Alex Anthopolous himself.

Santos is a primarily a two pitch pitcher. He has a 93-95 mph fastball that is capable of touching 98 mph, and uses it alongside a late-biting mid 80's power slider to dominate right handed batters to the tune of a .418 opponents OPS. He also throws a mid-to-high 80's changeup against left handed batters, but it lacks the break of his slider. Still, Santos held lefties to an impressive .628 opponents OPS in 2011, which is more than acceptable in a righty-lefty matchup. There will be no questions about who should pitch the 9th inning in 2012, even if three left handed batters are due up.

In exchange for Santos, the Blue Jays sent pitching prospect Nestor Molina to the White Sox. Molina -- who I was going to rank in the 6-10 range of my top prospect list -- is a three pitch pitcher who had downright silly statistical success in 2011. It is well documented that Molina is more of a finesse pitcher than a power pitcher, but his low 90's fastball works very well with his splitter and changeup, particularly with his plus-plus command. He absolutely has a big league future, the only questions are/were what role, and how good can he be. Many believe he will end up in the bullpen -- possibly closing -- while others believe he has the potential to be a #2 or #3 starter. I'm of the belief that he's more than capable of sticking as a starter, but I cannot fathom how people believe he will be an ace down the road. When scouting reports and statistics disagree, most often, the statistics are wrong. I wrote in the past how a lot of Molina's success could be attributed to lack of exposure, and by that I meant his inning limit. Rarely did hitters ever get to see him a third time in his starts, which is when both fatigue and hitter adjustments begin to work against the pitcher. When Molina starts consistently throwing 6 or 7 innings and 90-100 pitches, his numbers very well could take a hit.

Alex Anthopolous clearly saw this as an opportunity to trade from strength to fill a need. The Blue Jays already have a number of young and controllable pitchers in the major leagues (Romero, Morrow, Alvarez, Cecil, Drabek) and an abundance of pitchers in the minor leagues who are only one or two years away (Molina, McGuire, Hutchison, Jenkins, Wojciechowski). A road block was on the horizon, and Anthopolous chose to capitalize on his assets as opposed to letting their value diminish as they rot in the minor leagues. It's a smart move, both in the short term and in the long run. I almost have to pat myself on the back, as I predicted Nestor Molina (or Deck McGuire) as the offer in a Huston Street trade.

There's no loser in this trade, as both Toronto and Chicago got what they needed. For Toronto, they acquired a young closer without having to give ridiculous term or salary. For Chicago, they finally began a much needed rebuild, moving the first of what could be many big league pieces to inject a spark into a lifeless farm system.

The Huston Street business

For the first time this offseason, the Blue Jays are reportedly interested in a closer with whom I also have some interest -- Huston Street. Despite seemingly being around forever (he's been an MLB regular since 2005), Street only turned 28 years old in August of this past season. He's played for two different teams in his seven year major league career. The first four years (2005 to 2008) came with the Oakland A's, where he was drafted in the 1st round of the 2004 draft. After the 2008 season, he was traded with a package of other players to the Colorado Rockies in exchange for Matt Holliday. He has spent the last three years (2009 to 2011) with those Rockies, working primarily as the closer when he wasn't on the disabled list, an issue he dealt with frequently in Colorado.

His Oakland A's career was strong in all facets, though it was likely highlighted by his debut rookie season (2005) in which he won the American League Rookie of the Year award. Statistically speaking, 2006 was his best, as he produced 2.4 WAR despite a 3.31 ERA. His season was powered by an impressive 67-to-13 strikeout to walk ratio and only 4 home runs allowed, two traits Street has carried through his entire career. Since being traded to Colorado, Street has seen his homerun rate increase (almost entirely due to making the move from The Coliseum to Coors Field), though outside of 2011 (14.5% HR/FB) his homerun rate has still been better than league average.

Street doesn't overpower hitters, but he has command of three good pitches. After working off a four-seam fastball in the early part of his career, Street has recently switched to a two-seam fastball. This was most likely an attempt to generate more movement and to avoid the homerun ball while playing in the high altitude of Coors Field. The two-seamer averages 90 mph (touching 93 mph) and has strong vertical drop and horizontal movement. At 56.7% of his pitches thrown the past two seasons, it is his go-to pitch. His primary breaking ball is a swing-and-miss slider. The pitch averages 83 mph and shows late break, making it difficult to square up. His third pitch is a changeup that sits 8-9 mph below his fastball. Street does not throw a traditional changeup, he instead throws a circle-change that has nearly equal vertical drop and horizontal movement, floating away from left handed hitters. The circle grip pushes the ball while a traditional changeup shows predominantly vertical drop. As mentioned, Street has plus-plus command, putting together a career 2.29 BB/9. Perhaps harnessing his inner Texan, Street is a warrior on the mound, showing nerves of steel and rarely losing his cool even under the most strenuous circumstances. Mechanically, Street throws from a 3/4 arm slot and has a sound, repeatable delivery that generates consistent release points on all of his pitches.



Street signed a 3 year, 22.5M extension with Colorado prior to the 2010 season, which now has one year remaining at 7.5M. The contract also includes a 9M player option for 2013, with a 0.5M buyout. This is the main reason why Colorado is looking to move Street, as their front office believes that with Rafael Betancourt and others, they can maintain a strong back end of the bullpen without paying one player this much money. At 1 year, 8M (buyout included) or 2 years, 16.5 (option picked up), Huston Street is a much better financial investment than any big-name closer on the market, and if healthy would likely perform better than every free agent closer not named Jonathan Papelbon. The Bill James handbook projects a 2.74 ERA, 3.08 FIP 2012 season for Street, which would be exceptional numbers in any bullpen.

Colorado's initial asking price may be steep, but it's doubtful Toronto would have to fork over any of their top 4 prospects. A player in the 6-10 range (which is the equivalent of a 3-5 prospect in many systems) or a "B" prospect, is the most likely scenario. Players like Deck McGuire or Nestor Molina could greatly interest Colorado, as they have both shown good (or in Molina's case, outstanding) command, while posting solid groundball rates -- both of which are important traits in any future Rockies pitcher. McGuire and Molina are also close enough to the majors that at least some of the prospect risk is diminished, as developed Double-A pitchers are far safer acquisitions than a projectible Low-A pitcher. If the Rockies would prefer a package deal instead of a 1-for-1, the Blue Jays could oblige, as Toronto boasts one of the deepest farm systems in baseball. Perhaps a sinkerballer like Chad Jenkins and a future back of the 'pen arm like Asher Wojciechowski would interest them.

Jonathan Papelbon is off the market, and it's possible most teams are sitting in the proverbial bushes waiting for other teams to make a move before pouncing on their desired target. Toronto would be wise to avoid falling into this market stagnation however, as demand could skyrocket as supply diminshes, forcing the club to offer more than it is comfortable. Additionally, an acquistion of a sure-fire closer like Huston Street could force the preceding closer, Type-A free agent Frank Francisco, to decline arbitration and net the Blue Jays two extra draft picks, assuming the new Collective Bargaining Agreement does not squelch that rule for the upcoming draft. Blue Jays General Manager Alex Anthopolous has openly stated he prefers to spend money over giving term, and Huston Street is the perfect way to get a good closer without being locked into a 3 or 4 year deal.

Trade Target: Pedro Alvarez

Name: Pedro Alvarez
Position: Third Base
Team: Pittsburgh Pirates
2012 Opening Day age: 25
Contract: 1 year, 0.7M remaining with two club options
Service time: < 2 years

Scouting Report:

Alvarez has a similar build to that of previously mentioned trade target Yonder Alonso, with the biggest difference being their defensive position. While Alonso is already stationed at first base, the 6'3", 235 lbs Alvarez is still attempting to remain at the hot corner. That experiment could nearing its end, as Alvarez' defense has never been considered strong and he has failed to make significant improvements in either of his major league seasons. His running ability is also below average. None of this is overly important, however, as Pedro Alvarez was not drafted for his speed nor his defensive abilties -- the Pirates made him the 2nd overall pick in 2008 because of his bat and overwhelming power. Alvarez has "pole to pole" power, with legitimate 70's being placed on the tool entering his draft year. A broken hamate bone early in his Junior year created some concerns, but he has since silenced any doubts regarding his power in his professional career (27 HR in 2009, 29 HR in 2010). The hitting tool is solid, but it is a step behind his power. He has a ton of bat speed, which allows him to see pitches longer and swing deeper in the strikezone. Alvarez also has some loft to his swing, which helps generate power but also creates a lot of flyballs. He'll never contend for batting titles, but is more than capable of putting together .900 OPS / 35 HR seasons in his prime.

2011 Statistics:

(AAA) 142 AB, .246/.365/.423 (.787 OPS), 5 2B, 1 3B, 6 HR, 21 RBI, 0 SB, 25/47 BB/K
(MLB) 235 AB, .191/.272/.289 (.561 OPS), 9 2B, 1 3B, 4 HR, 19 RBI, 1 SB, 24/80 BB/K

Why Toronto would want him:

While Alvarez has been a bit of a bust since being drafted 2nd overall in 2008, he still has all the power potential a team could ever wants from a corner infielder. First base should be a focus for improvement this offseason, and if Toronto avoids the big free agents they should attempt to improve via the trade route. Alvarez is currently listed as a third baseman, but first base is seeming more and more like his future destination. Much like Yunel Escobar and Colby Rasmus, Alvarez is a once highly touted player who is currently frustrating his team's front office and fan base. He has a lot of risk, but a change of scenery might be exactly what Alvarez needs to unlock his middle of the lineup potential.

Why Pittsburgh might trade him:

Pittsburgh has a poor track record with developing their top draft picks, and Alvarez is beginning to look like yet another casualty on that front. If the Pirates are beginning to have any doubts about Alvarez, they may feel now is the time to trade him while he still retains some of the hype and value of being a 2nd overall pick. The organization has already begun to show its frustration, demoting Alvarez down to Triple-A Indianapolis mid-season and not recalling him until rosters expanded in September. As a team that always seems to lack pitching, the Pirates could be tempted by Toronto's young, controllable, non-Boras client arms.

Trade Target: Yonder Alonso

Name: Yonder Alonso
Position: First Base
Team: Cincinnati Reds
2012 Opening Day age: 24
Contract: 1 year, 1M remaining
Service time: ~1 year

Scouting Report:

Alonso is a thick (6'2", 240 lbs) first baseman who was drafted 7th overall by the Cincinnati Reds in the 2008 draft. While he isn't the same gargantuan size, Alonso has an Adam Dunn look to his body. A career .293/.370/.466 hitter across 2+ minor league seasons, Alonso has the potential for 60 hit and power tools with a strong plate approach. He has shown some weakness to left handed pitching in the past, but Alonso actually hit lefties better than righties with Triple-A Louisville this season. While it's disappointing that his 17 home runs between 446 Triple-A and MLB at-bats were a personal best, Alonso pounded out a lot of doubles which leaves room for improvement. While his body looks mature, he's still growing as a hitter and more power should come down the road. Offensively, his ceiling is likely a .300/25 hitter, which is more than acceptable for a first baseman. Alonso has below average speed and will likely never improve, but he does have the potential to be a solid defensive first baseman.

2011 Statistics:

88 AB, .330/.398/.545 (.943 OPS), 4 2B, 0 3B, 5 HR, 15 RBI, 0 SB, 10/21 BB/K

Why Toronto would want him:

Similar to the reasons touched on in the Joey Votto post, Adam Lind is not the answer at first base long term, and Toronto needs to begin looking for alternatives. While Alonso lacks the upside of Votto, he is a much cheaper alternative, both in terms of salary and trade cost. Alonso signed a 5 year, 4.55M (including 2M signing bonus) major league contract after being drafted in 2008, and while he has only 1 year worth 1M remaining on that contract, he would still be under team control through 2016. He could likely be acquired for only one of Toronto's MLB ready arms, whereas Votto would cost possibly 3 of Toronto's top 5 prospects. He could hit 2nd, 5th, or 6th in the Blue Jays lineup immediately, with the possibility of moving to 4th if he develops as hoped.

Why Cincinnati might trade him:

While the Reds have tried playing him at third base and in left field, Alonso's speed clearly limits him to first base. With Joey Votto in place, Cincinnati has a substantial decision to make this offseason. The first option would be to rebuild, trading Votto for a bounty of prospects and moving Alonso to first base full time. The other option would be to push all-in while they still have Votto under contract. If they choose the second option, it would be wise to capitalize on moving Alonso while he is still young, cheap, and projectable, as opposed to wasting him as a bench bat. An Alonso trade could result in the acquisition of a starting pitcher who could help them for the next two years on their quest for a championship.

Trade Target: Joey Votto

Name: Joey Votto
Position: First Base
Team: Cincinnati Reds
2012 Opening Day age: 28
Contract: 2 years, 26.5M remaining
Service time: 4+ years

Scouting Report:

In his first four years, Votto has compiled 4.0, 4.7, 7.3, and 6.9 WAR seasons, earning himself the NL MVP in 2010. Votto's success at the plate is achieved primarily through two traits. First, his plate discipline is extremely refined, and his advanced approach allows him to consistently get into favorable hitter counts and spray the ball all over the field. Second, Votto has a quiet stance and a quick and level swing, which generates a ton of line drives. Votto's 2011 batted ball statistics (27.5% LD, 39.1% GB, 33.4% FB) differ greatly from those of the notorious upper cutter Prince Fielder (19.8% LD, 43.1% GB, 37.1% FB). A high line drive percentage like Votto's will result in sustainably high batting averages despite what appear to be fluky BABIP numbers. Votto has plus power, but is more of a 25-30 home run hitter with a ton of doubles than a true 35-40 home run slugger, despite what his 2010 totals suggest. He is a solid to above average defender and an average runner.

2011 Statistics:

599 AB, .309/.416/.531 (.947 OPS), 40 2B, 3 3B, 29 HR, 103 RBI, 8 SB, 110/129 BB/K

Why Toronto would want him:

The list of reasons why Toronto (or anyone) would want Joey Votto is bordering on endless. He is in his prime and is one of the best players in the game, while under contract for two more years. Toronto has a glaring hole at first base with Adam Lind having exposed his ineptitude at the plate. Votto would be a monstrous upgrade for the club, as he could immediately join Jose Bautista to create the best 3-4 in baseball and push Toronto into serious playoff contention. Additionally, Joey Votto is a Toronto native, and his acquisition would create a buzz around the Blue Jays that hasn't been heard since the World Series years. The contract extension would be expensive, but Toronto could easily afford it, especially when considering the marketing opportunities.

Why Cincinnati might trade him:

It's extremely farfetched that the Reds would trade Votto, because he truly is one of the best players in baseball and is only 28 years old. If Cincinnati does make him available, it's likely because of money. Votto is owed 9.5M in 2012 and 17M in 2013, after which he becomes a free agent. He has stated numerous times in the past that he is not interested in a contract extension that would buy out his free agent years, which suggests he has no interest in staying in Cincinnati longterm. Given that he'll likely command an Adrian Gonzalez-esque contract, it's doubtful Cincinnati could retain him even if he wanted to stay. The Reds have a ready made replacement for Votto in former 7th overall pick Yonder Alonso. If they were to move him, they would likely demand a package that would upgrade their pitching staff with young, controllable talent.

Trade Target: Logan Morrison

Name: Logan Morrison
Position: Left Field / First Base
Team: Florida Marlins
2012 Opening Day age: 24
Contract: League minimum
Service time: 1+ years

Scouting Report:

Morrison doesn't fit the profile of a typical first base or left field type, as power is not his strongest tool. While he is capable of 20 home run seasons, Morrison uses a combination of strong plate coverage and an advanced plate approach to find success at the plate. Deep counts and two strikes don't scare Morrison, as he is more than willing to shorten up his swing and punch a ball the other way, or to simply take a walk and let his teammates hit with a runner on base. Due to the emergence of Gaby Sanchez in 2010, the Marlins moved Morrison to left field, but as he rose through the Marlins system he played roughly 80% of his games at first. He's a big guy -- roughly 6'3" and 240 lbs, so unsurprisingly he's less than impressive on the basepaths.

2011 Statistics:

462 AB, .247/.330/.468 (.797 OPS), 25 2B, 4 3B, 23 HR, 72 RBI, 2 SB, 54/99 BB/K

Why Toronto would want him:

Over the past two seasons, Adam Lind has proven unworthy of regular duty, particularly at an offensively demanding position like first base. Edwin Encarnacion has shown he is capable of playing either first base or designated hitter on a full time basis, but the other position could (and should) be addressed over the winter. Morrison could step in and immediately take over the first base duties while hitting 2nd in the linup. He would be a far more effective two-hitter than anything Toronto used this season, and would actually get on base so Bautista could hit with runners on more frequently. Morrison has not yet entered his arbitration years, so his salary would not be prohibitive.

Why Florida might trade him:

In terms of talent and salary, it would be foolish for Florida to trade away Morrison. Their front office, however, has issues with how Morrison handles himself outside of the baseball stadium, and have gone as far as to publicly call him out. A mid-season demotion to Triple-A (which was rumored to be a punishment for these activities) resulted in a grievance being filed by the MLBPA on Morrison's behalf, only further expanding the divide between the team and player. Much like the Cardinals with Colby Rasmus, some situations simply won't work if the team and player cannot get along, so the Marlins may try to get a clean break from Morrison as they enter their new stadium in 2012.

Trade Target: Kendrys Morales

Name: Kendrys Morales
Position: First Base
Team: Los Angeles Angels
2012 Opening Day age: 27
Contract: Entering second arbitration year
Service time: 4+ years

Scouting Report:

Kendrys Morales is a switch hitter who has shown a plus bat and plus power from both sides of the plate. He displayed these tools in his breakout 2009 season, as he put together a .924 OPS with 43 doubles and 34 home runs. He hit both lefties and righties well, with an .801 OPS and .962 OPS respectively. Morales has a decent approach at the plate, but his career 6.9% walk rate is fairly low considering his career 16.5% strikeout rate. He is a solid defensive first baseman, but like most bigger players he is awful on the basepaths. In addition to clogging the bases for runners behind him, he is a career 27% (4/15) base stealer. A home plate celebration after an Angels walk-off victory in May of 2010 ended in a fluke broken leg for Morales, and due to a setback earlier this season he has still not returned to baseball.

2011 Statistics:

N/A -- did not play due to injury

Why Toronto would want him:

When healthy, Morales is an impact bat in the middle of the lineup. While Edwin Encarnacion has shown he might be capable of handling either first base or designated hitter in 2012, Adam Lind has not done enough to prove he is worthy of a starting job. Lind will most likely finish 2011 with a sub-.300 OBP for the second consecutive year while accumulating 0.7 WAR. Those are disgusting numbers, especially given that Lind has served primarily as Toronto's cleanup hitter for the entire year. Morales could stablize the position for atleast 2 years without having to offer him a long term contract, and likely wouldn't require a significant prospect package given his injury history.

Why Los Angeles might trade him:

The Angels have two good reasons to trade Morales. The first is Mark Trumbo. In Morales' absense, Trumbo had stepped in and stablized the position for Los Angeles and is a contender for the American League Rookie of the Year Award. The second reason is the Angels outfield. Vernon Wells and Torii Hunter are under contract for a few years, while Peter Bourjos and top prospect Mike Trout are also in need of at-bats for development. Even with Abreu gone in 2012, that's still four players fighting for three outfield spots. The Angels are unlikely to trade Bourjos or Trout, while Wells and Hunter are basically untradeable. If the fourth outfielder becomes the designated hitter, then Los Angeles are unable to play both Trumbo and Morales -- ergo they must trade one of the two.

Trade Target: Howie Kendrick

Name: Howie Kendrick
Position: Second Base
Team: Los Angeles Angels
2012 Opening Day age: 28
Contract: Entering final arbitration year
Service time: 5+ years

Scouting Report:

Howie Kendrick is a great all-around player but his best tool is by far his bat, though the results haven't really shown up as expected. As he ascended the ranks of the Angels farm system, 70-plus grades were placed on his bat, with many considering him a possible future batting champion. The statistics were staggering, bordering upon ridiculous -- Kendrick was a career .360 hitter in the minor leagues. This wasn't a sample size issue either -- that batting average came across 1618 minor league at-bats. While he hasn't translated that success to the major leagues, he's still hitting a highly respectable .293 for his career. Kendrick has a 50 power tool to go with his 70-ish bat, which has resulted in consistent 10-20 home run seasons. He's a strong base runner as well, as evident by his 10-15 stolen bases every year. In terms of defense, Kendrick is rated as baseball's best second baseman in 2011, and has been well above average every year except 2010 according to advanced defensive metrics.

2011 Statistics:

531 AB, .286/.339/.467 (.806 OPS), 30 2B, 6 3B, 18 HR, 63 RBI, 14 SB, 32/116 BB/K

Why Toronto would want him:

It is no secret that Toronto has no MLB-calibre second baseman under contract for the 2012 season, and the free agent market is extremely thin. Kelly Johnson is probably the most likely candidate, however if he declines arbitration and signs elsewhere, Toronto will have a glaring need. Kendrick would cost a couple of good prospects but he would be a monstrous upgrade over anyone Toronto has fielded since Aaron Hill in his huge season (though Kendrick's 5.9 WAR 2011 still exceeds Hill's 4.1 WAR 2009). Howie Kendrick could hit 6th or 7th in the lineup, in a position where he could drive in runs with his plus bat and power. While he is entering his final year of arbitration, his 2012 salary should still be a manageable figure in the 5-6M range. Toronto could (and should) seek an extension with Kendrick if they were to acquire him, but even if they aren't able to reach a deal they could offer him arbitration as he entered free agency and receive draft pick compensation, as Kendrick currently profiles as a Type-A free agent (and barring a collapse in 2012 would retain that status).

Why Los Angeles might trade him:

The reasons the Angels might trade Kendrick is a rather short list, and they have nothing to do with talent. While the Angels have deep pockets, they have a lot of veterans under long-term contracts already and have some good positional players coming through the system. The biggest question for Los Angeles will be whether or not they want to lock up yet another position player and continue to block top prospects. The Angels have first base (Trumbo, Morales?) and shortstop (Aybar) locked up as well as Maicer Izturis who is cheap and capable of playing any infield position. On the farm, they have a future stud second baseman in Jean Segura (57th on Baseball America's 2011 Top 100) and a potential solid third baseman in Kaleb Cowart. Despite having a ton of outfield depth, Kendrick is already playing some left field for the Angels, possibly indicating they are making room for Segura within the next year. If Los Angeles feel Segura is the real deal, they may not be comfortable locking up Kendrick, and could make him available for trade over the winter.

No more Jo-Jo, drastic changes await!

Early this afternoon, the Toronto Blue Jays officially announced they had designated pitcher Jo-Jo Reyes for assignment. This move puts Reyes in limbo for the next 10 days, during which the Blue Jays have an opportunity to work out a trade with any other team in baseball. If an agreement is reached, Reyes would immediately be placed on that team's active roster. Additionally, Reyes no longer holds a spot on Toronto's 40 man roster, lowering the Blue Jays total to 36 players. If no trade is consumated during that period, the Blue Jays can either attempt to pass him through waivers and re-assign him to the minor leagues, or hand him his outright release. As a corresponding move, Toronto purchased the contract of Wilfredo Ledezma from Las Vegas, adding him to the 40 man roster as well as the active, 25 man roster.

Reyes was acquired from the Braves last summer in the Yunel Escobar deal, and at the time, general manager Alex Anthopolous stated he would not have made the deal without the inclusion of the left hander. Reyes made 2 starts with the Blue Jays Double-A affiliate in New Hampshire last summer, before knee surgery ended his season in August. Reyes had an excellent track record in the minor leagues, and was given a legitimate shot in Spring Training 2011 to earn a spot in Toronto's starting rotation. He met the challenge, throwing 23 innings while allowing only 10 hits and 9 runs, walking 8, and striking out 18 (3.52 ERA, 0.78 WHIP).

That success did not translate into the regular season, as he averaged less than 5 innings per start in April and got hit around consistently. He peaked in May, pitching to decent numbers for a back-end starter and even ending his historically long winless drought. June, much like April, was another ugly month, but July was the straw that finally broke the camel's back. In 4 starts (21.1 IP), he allowed 34 hits and 19 earned runs, walked 7, and struck out only 5. His 5.40 season ERA looks bad, but his WHIP (1.59) and opposing slash line (entering last night -- .303/.360/.469, via @bluejaysbatboy) are absolutely disgusting.

Replacing him, atleast temporarily, is the aformentioned Wilfredo Ledezma. A big lefty (6'4", 225 lbs), Ledezma had been working out of Triple-A Las Vegas' bullpen. Since making the transition to the pen in 2007, his fastball has averaged between 92.5 and 93.7 mph, which is very strong for a left hander. In addition to his fastball, he also throws a slider in the low to mid 80's, and even throws a changeup every once in a while. It's a decent repetoire, but Ledezma has struggled with walks while in the majors, which has forced him to bounce between organizations looking for another shot.

I mentioned temporarily, because I don't foresee Ledezma staying in Toronto particularly long. Luis Perez was optioned to Las Vegas on July 19th to make room for Casey Janssen, and as such he cannot return to the majors until the 29th (10 days later) unless an opening is created by an injury requiring a DL-stint. Perez made his major league debut this season and has been a valuable asset out of the bullpen, posting strong strikeout, walk, groundball, and left-on-base rates. It is doubtful Toronto wants to keep him in Triple-A, and I imagine he will be back on August 1st.

Today's transactions once again put the pitching staff in flux. The team is now down a starter, leaving a vacancy for Reyes' next turn in the rotation (July 28th, vs BAL).

Additionally, tonight's starter Carlos Villanueva has already thrown 84.1 innings this year, and after throwing only 67 innings last year, he is likely approaching his limit as a starter. During April when he worked exclusively as a reliever, he threw 14.2 innings. If he pitches 6 innings tonight and then works exclusively as a reliever for August and September, he's looking at around 120 innings on the year, which would be more than he's pitched in a season since 2006. Villanueva is a useful pitcher, and if we don't want to Brian Tallet his arm, Texas should be his last start. That would create yet another void in the rotation behind Romero, Morrow, and Cecil.

The first, and most pressing roster move, is to find a starter for Thursday's game. There is likely 3 candidates for that start; Jesse Litsch, Zach Stewart, and Brad Mills. Litsch last pitched for Las Vegas on the 20th, so for him to take Reyes' spot he would either need to pitch on extended rest, or have the rotation rearrange itself so he could pitch on the 30th. Mills pitched last night for Las Vegas, struggling through 7 innings (11 H, 7 ER). Despite that start, Mills has pitched extremely well in the PCL, and is a strong candidate for promotion. Stewart also made his most recent start last night (with New Hampshire), and, almost like he knew there would be an opening in the rotation, he threw his best game of the year. He went 7.2 innings, allowing 6 hits and 1 run. He walked 1, and struck out 8 batters, picking up the win.

Given the circumstances, I imagine Stewart will be the one getting the call on the the 28th. He would be on regular rest, is coming off his best start of the season, has already been with Toronto this year, and made his first (and best) career start against the same Orioles he would be facing. Mills and Litsch would be likely be the main competitors for Villanueva's spot when he returns to the bullpen, but someone like Joel Carreno could be considered a dark horse for that spot.

The second set of roster moves will likely occur closer to the trade deadline. The Blue Jays possess a number of veteran relief pitchers with favorable contracts, and with so many teams in contention this year, the demand is likely to be strong. With the overflow of pitchers both currently in the majors or in the minors awaiting their turn, I expect Alex Anthopolous to move atleast 2 of his 5 veteran relievers (Camp, Dotel, Francisco, Frasor, Rauch).

If I had to make a prediction for the August 1st pitching staff, it would be as follows:

Rotation:

Romero (L)
Morrow
Cecil (L)
Stewart
Mills (L)

Bullpen:

Rauch
Frasor
Rzepczynski (L)
Francisco
Perez (L)
Janssen
Villanueva

In this scenario, Dotel and Camp would be traded. I won't even attempt to predict the team they would go to or the compensation received. Ledezma would be outrighted to the minor leagues (if he gets claimed, which is doubtful, so be it). Litsch and Drabek would remain with Triple-A until September, unless an injury arises.

Finally, there is the fate of Jo-Jo Reyes. While I am sure the Blue Jays hope he can clear waivers (assuming they don't trade him), I find it doubtful. He is still young and has a decent fastball/slider/changeup arsenal. While he has definitively proven he can't pitch in the AL East, the NL Central and NL West always seem to have teams willing to take on cheap projects. I can see the Astros, Dodgers, and Padres as potential fits for Reyes, where he could act as either a 5th starter or lefty reliever.

Regardless of the order in which the events occur, it is clear that the Blue Jays are preparing themselves for some pretty dramatic roster changes, and over the next week the Blue Jays will definitely be a team to watch.

Wallace for Gose revisited

On July 29th 2010, Roy Oswalt was traded from the Houston Astros to the Philadelphia Phillies for minor league prospects. One of those prospects, Anthony Gose, was immediately shipped to Toronto in exchange for first baseman Brett Wallace. I, like many others, had a perplexed reaction to news of the trade. Lyle Overbay, the current starting first baseman, was in the last year of his contract, and Cito Gaston had shown no interest in playing Adam Lind at first base. In other words, we were counting on Wallace to step in to start the 2011 season, but as quickly and shockingly as we had acquired him, he was gone.

The explanation that Alex Anthopolous gave to the general public was that, while Brett Wallace will likely be a good hitter, Anthony Gose has the potential to be a great all-around baseball player. This was a viewpoint I could understand. In a division that has lineups filled with perennial All-Stars, "good" just isn't good enough, particularly when speaking of first base. Look no further than Mark Teixeira and now, Adrian Gonzalez, to understand the standards set for an AL East first baseman on a contender. Anthopolous acknowledged the risk but felt it necessary to shoot for high ceiling players and not settle for safety, and the latter might best describe the J.P. Ricciardi era.

Post trade, the 2010 season ended on a rather mediocre note for both players. Anthony Gose, after being assigned to the Blue Jays High-A affiliate in Dunedin, hit .255/.360/.426 in 94 at bats. While the 13 walks and 3 HR were nice to see, the 29 strikeouts and poor SB% (9/14 = 64%) said he still had a ways to go. For Brett Wallace, he finally reached the major leagues, and even saw regular playing time. The results were poor, however, as he posted a .222/.296/.319 slash line, with only 2 HR in 144 AB.

Entering 2011, Anthony Gose was named as the starting center fielder for Toronto's Double-A affiliate, the New Hampshire Fisher Cats, while Brett Wallace was named as the Opening Day first baseman for the Houston Astros. Clearly, both the Blue Jays and Astros organizations had lofty expectations of their players, and so far both players have performed quite admirably.

Gose has posted a slash line of .280/.366/.319 (161 AB) with 2 HR, 17 RBI, and 18 SB while playing an exceptional center field. Perhaps most promising about Gose's start is his BB/K ratio, which is currently 19/35, much improved from his previous few seasons. The biggest concern I have with Gose so far is his sub .100 ISO, which is the difference between his slugging percentage and batting average, and is used to measure extra base power. Gose has only hit 4 doubles, 3 triples, and 2 home runs. At 6'1" and 190 lbs, I want to see more. I can live with the low home run totals, but with his wheels he needs to have some solid double and triple totals.

Brett Wallace has hit .318/.391/.459 (148 AB) with 12 doubles, 3 HR, and 15 RBI. Similar to Anthony Gose, Wallace is posting a much better BB/K ratio this year at 17/32, a dramatic improvement over his combined 35/133 between Triple-A and the majors last season. His poor plate discipline was one of the main reasons I, and many other Blue Jays fans, were ok with the trade, so his performance has been a little bittersweet.

I got my first look at Brett Wallace this weekend as Houston made a trip to Toronto for an interleague series. After sitting for the 1st game against the left handed Reyes, Wallace started both the 2nd and 3rd games of the series. I was impressed with his performance, and not just because he managed to smack our pitching staff around. He does have a very nice, smooth swing, and whatever alteration he made to his approach during the offseason to improve his plate discipline was nice, as he showed a lot of patience on some tough pitches. My biggest concern was when I saw Brett Wallace field and run the bases. Wow. I couldn't stop thinking to myself how huge the guy's lower half is, and he's only 24. Wallace clearly needs to make changes in his lifestyle if he wants to have a long baseball career. Secondly, I'm not sure how high of a power ceiling Wallace has. He looks like he could be a consistent .300 hitter, but he seems to have more of a slap approach at the plate, as opposed to the uppercut swing you often see in 30+ HR hitting players. I heard the term "white Ichiro" used over the weekend and, while a mildly amusing joke about Wallace's slap single approach, is hardly accurate.

At the time of the trade, I was puzzled yet accepting, and 10 months later, the feeling is much the same. Gose has established himself in Double-A, while Wallace has established himself as a competent major league hitter. I still believe the Blue Jays will win this trade in the long run, however, as I'm not sure if Wallace will ever hit much more than 20-25 HR with mediocre defense, and numbers like those aren't particularly difficult to acquire for cheap from a veteran through free agency. Anthony Gose still has more inherent risk, but if he reaches the majors and hits, he'll could be one of the most dynamic players the Blue Jays organization has ever had.