Trade Target: Yonder Alonso

Name: Yonder Alonso
Position: First Base
Team: Cincinnati Reds
2012 Opening Day age: 24
Contract: 1 year, 1M remaining
Service time: ~1 year

Scouting Report:

Alonso is a thick (6'2", 240 lbs) first baseman who was drafted 7th overall by the Cincinnati Reds in the 2008 draft. While he isn't the same gargantuan size, Alonso has an Adam Dunn look to his body. A career .293/.370/.466 hitter across 2+ minor league seasons, Alonso has the potential for 60 hit and power tools with a strong plate approach. He has shown some weakness to left handed pitching in the past, but Alonso actually hit lefties better than righties with Triple-A Louisville this season. While it's disappointing that his 17 home runs between 446 Triple-A and MLB at-bats were a personal best, Alonso pounded out a lot of doubles which leaves room for improvement. While his body looks mature, he's still growing as a hitter and more power should come down the road. Offensively, his ceiling is likely a .300/25 hitter, which is more than acceptable for a first baseman. Alonso has below average speed and will likely never improve, but he does have the potential to be a solid defensive first baseman.

2011 Statistics:

88 AB, .330/.398/.545 (.943 OPS), 4 2B, 0 3B, 5 HR, 15 RBI, 0 SB, 10/21 BB/K

Why Toronto would want him:

Similar to the reasons touched on in the Joey Votto post, Adam Lind is not the answer at first base long term, and Toronto needs to begin looking for alternatives. While Alonso lacks the upside of Votto, he is a much cheaper alternative, both in terms of salary and trade cost. Alonso signed a 5 year, 4.55M (including 2M signing bonus) major league contract after being drafted in 2008, and while he has only 1 year worth 1M remaining on that contract, he would still be under team control through 2016. He could likely be acquired for only one of Toronto's MLB ready arms, whereas Votto would cost possibly 3 of Toronto's top 5 prospects. He could hit 2nd, 5th, or 6th in the Blue Jays lineup immediately, with the possibility of moving to 4th if he develops as hoped.

Why Cincinnati might trade him:

While the Reds have tried playing him at third base and in left field, Alonso's speed clearly limits him to first base. With Joey Votto in place, Cincinnati has a substantial decision to make this offseason. The first option would be to rebuild, trading Votto for a bounty of prospects and moving Alonso to first base full time. The other option would be to push all-in while they still have Votto under contract. If they choose the second option, it would be wise to capitalize on moving Alonso while he is still young, cheap, and projectable, as opposed to wasting him as a bench bat. An Alonso trade could result in the acquisition of a starting pitcher who could help them for the next two years on their quest for a championship.

Trade Target: Joey Votto

Name: Joey Votto
Position: First Base
Team: Cincinnati Reds
2012 Opening Day age: 28
Contract: 2 years, 26.5M remaining
Service time: 4+ years

Scouting Report:

In his first four years, Votto has compiled 4.0, 4.7, 7.3, and 6.9 WAR seasons, earning himself the NL MVP in 2010. Votto's success at the plate is achieved primarily through two traits. First, his plate discipline is extremely refined, and his advanced approach allows him to consistently get into favorable hitter counts and spray the ball all over the field. Second, Votto has a quiet stance and a quick and level swing, which generates a ton of line drives. Votto's 2011 batted ball statistics (27.5% LD, 39.1% GB, 33.4% FB) differ greatly from those of the notorious upper cutter Prince Fielder (19.8% LD, 43.1% GB, 37.1% FB). A high line drive percentage like Votto's will result in sustainably high batting averages despite what appear to be fluky BABIP numbers. Votto has plus power, but is more of a 25-30 home run hitter with a ton of doubles than a true 35-40 home run slugger, despite what his 2010 totals suggest. He is a solid to above average defender and an average runner.

2011 Statistics:

599 AB, .309/.416/.531 (.947 OPS), 40 2B, 3 3B, 29 HR, 103 RBI, 8 SB, 110/129 BB/K

Why Toronto would want him:

The list of reasons why Toronto (or anyone) would want Joey Votto is bordering on endless. He is in his prime and is one of the best players in the game, while under contract for two more years. Toronto has a glaring hole at first base with Adam Lind having exposed his ineptitude at the plate. Votto would be a monstrous upgrade for the club, as he could immediately join Jose Bautista to create the best 3-4 in baseball and push Toronto into serious playoff contention. Additionally, Joey Votto is a Toronto native, and his acquisition would create a buzz around the Blue Jays that hasn't been heard since the World Series years. The contract extension would be expensive, but Toronto could easily afford it, especially when considering the marketing opportunities.

Why Cincinnati might trade him:

It's extremely farfetched that the Reds would trade Votto, because he truly is one of the best players in baseball and is only 28 years old. If Cincinnati does make him available, it's likely because of money. Votto is owed 9.5M in 2012 and 17M in 2013, after which he becomes a free agent. He has stated numerous times in the past that he is not interested in a contract extension that would buy out his free agent years, which suggests he has no interest in staying in Cincinnati longterm. Given that he'll likely command an Adrian Gonzalez-esque contract, it's doubtful Cincinnati could retain him even if he wanted to stay. The Reds have a ready made replacement for Votto in former 7th overall pick Yonder Alonso. If they were to move him, they would likely demand a package that would upgrade their pitching staff with young, controllable talent.