Friday, September 23, 2011

Minor League Hitter of the Year

With the minor league seasons having reached completion, it is time to determine the Blue Jays minor league players of the year -- both hitter and pitcher. Unlike previous years, there are a wealth of candidates for these awards thanks to the overall depth of the farm system. In addition to the shear number of prospects, many of the high upside prospects had big years, causing the farm to look even better.

The candidates:

3B Brett Lawrie, Triple-A Las Vegas
300 AB, .347/.414/.647 (1.060 OPS), 24 2B, 6 3B, 18 HR, 62 RBI, 13 SB, 26/54 BB/K

Two major factors may have sabotaged Lawrie's chances to be the Blue Jays minor league hitter of the year. The first -- a hit-by-pitch suffered in a game in late May. Lawrie was having a truly insane month -- 1.170 OPS, 11 doubles, 3 triples, 11 home runs, and 14 walks. Reports were being leaked and discussed that a major league promotion was on the horizon for Lawrie, but the bruised hand was discovered to be a broken hand which resulted in 6 weeks on the minor league disabled list. Lawrie made his return in mid-July and picked up exactly where he left off, with a 1.122 OPS in the month which once again drove Blue Jays fans to demand the promotion of their much heralded top prospect. He finally received the big league call in early August, and he wouldn't play another minor league game after that. Between the aformentioned hand injury and the late season promotion, Lawrie only accumulated 300 minor league at-bats, which really cripples his chances. With 500 AB he's likely a shoe-in, but instead, he has a lot of competition.

C Travis d'Arnaud, Double-A New Hampshire
424 AB, .311/.371/.542 (.914 OPS), 33 2B, 1 3B, 21 HR, 78 RBI, 4 SB, 33/100 BB/K

The first of two Fisher Cat candidates, d'Arnaud made a monstrous leap as a prospect in 2011, finally putting some numbers behind the tools that scouts have been drooling over for years. d'Arnaud put his injury plagued debut season with Toronto behind him and helped lead New Hampshire to the Eastern League championship. Later named the Eastern League MVP, d'Arnaud put together a well rounded season that displayed his bat, power, and plate approach. Beyond the statistics, his defense received positive reviews, and assuming his back injuries are behind him he should have no difficulties staying behind the plate long term. d'Arnaud has developed himself from a mid-tier prospect in the Blue Jays system into arguably the best catcher in the minor leagues and Toronto's best prospect overall.

CF Anthony Gose, Double-A New Hampshire
509 AB, .253/.349/.415 (.763 OPS), 20 2B, 7 3B, 16 HR, 59 RBI, 70 SB, 62/154 BB/K

Progression was apparent in Gose' 2011 season, but his flaws were still very evident. The recently turned 21 year old has already played in three full seasons in the minor leagues as a former highschool pick, which speaks to the age discrepancy he has constantly fought through to post the numbers he has. The above statistics were collected while facing pitchers typically 1-4 years older than him, which does in a sense justify some of the strikeouts. Regardless, Gose made three substantial improvements to his game this year. First, after struggling to post ISO numbers over 100 through his career, Gose saw his power take a step forward, smashing 16 home runs with a 162 ISO. Second, Gose became a much more polished base stealer, improving his ratio from 58% (45/77) to 82% (70/85). Finally, he improved his walk rate for the third straight year, from 6.1% in 2009 to 8.1% in 2010 to 10.6% in 2011.

CF Jake Marisnick, Single-A Lansing
462 AB, .320/.392/.496 (.888 OPS), 27 2B, 6 3B, 14 HR, 77 RBI, 37 SB, 43/91 BB/K

Much like Travis d'Arnaud, Marisnick took the big step towards putting some numbers behind his jaw-dropping tools. The term is thrown around rather loosely, but Marisnick is a true 5-tool talent. What makes that even more impressive is that he displays these tools while playing centerfield. Marisnick's batting line looks impressive, but what is truly incredible is the consistency he displayed over his 118 games. On a month-to-month basis, Marisnick posted a .900+ OPS in three months (April, July, August), an .800+ OPS in one month (June), and a .700+ OPS in one month (May). In other words -- at best he played like an MVP, and at worst he played like a league average player -- and he played like the former far more often than the latter. Not only did Marisnick experience personal success, he led the Lansing Lugnuts to the Midwest League championship, though they failed to capture the title. Marisnick has flown up the prospect charts and has established himself as a legitimate top 5 prospect in the system, and possible top 50 in all of baseball.

The winner:

While the other three candidates all had outstanding seasons, I have to give the award to Jake Marisnick. Each of the other prospects had some factor working against them, while Marisnick was nearly flawless in his blitzkreig through the Midwest League. As an incredible athlete, the ceiling is limitless if he continues to show he can hit and hit for power. Marisnick will take his talents to Dunedin in 2012 and look to prove that this year was no fluke.

The Minor League Pitcher of the Year can be found here.

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