It is a widely accepted theory that in order to accurately analyze a baseball draft, four or five years need to pass. This is because, unlike the other three major sports (NFL, NHL, NBA), baseball draftees do not immediately step into the major leagues. College draftees usually spend between one and three years in the minor leagues before seeing the majors, while highschool draftees can take upwards of five or six years to make their debut.
The first half of the decade saw a regime change, as long time General Manager Gord Ash (who was known for his strong drafts) was replaced after the 2001 season in favor of one of Billy Beane's understudies, J.P. Ricciardi. Ricciardi was known for his eye for talent, and declared that acquiring amateur talent through the draft would be his method of overthrowing the AL East powers and finally bringing Toronto back to the playoffs.
While the story of J.P. Ricciardi's egotisical dictatorship in Toronto is an interesting one, we shall instead look at how he, and his predecessor Gord Ash, did in acquiring talent through the draft from the turn of the millenium through 2007.
2000:
Top draftee: CF Miguel Negron (1st round, 18th overall)
Best pick: RHP Dustin McGowan (Supplemental 1st round)
Miguel Negron was easily the worst 1st round pick on this list, but given how poor the 2000 draft ended up being, it's hard to fault the front office. Of the 40 first round and supplemental first round picks, only three went on to become All Stars (Adrian Gonzalez, Chase Utley, Adam Wainwright), and only Wainwright was drafted after Negron. McGowan was the prize for Toronto in this draft. After struggling to reach the majors, McGowan put it all together in 2007, pitching to a 3.79 xFIP and 3.9 fWAR. McGowan was on his way to another 3+ fWAR season in 2008 until he went down with a series of serious arm issues, and hasn't seen the majors since.
2001:
Top draftee: LF Gabe Gross (1st round, 15th overall)
Best pick: RHP Brandon League (2nd round)
When the highlight of your draft is a relief pitcher who has totalled a 3.58 xFIP and 2.9 fWAR over parts of 8 major league seasons, you know the draft went poorly. Neither Gross or League ever amounted to much in Toronto, and their biggest impact may be who they brought back in trades. Gross was traded along with two pitchers to Milwaukee for Lyle Overbay, who had a strong 2006 season (.880 OPS) and helped Toronto take 2nd place in the AL East for the first time this decade. Brandon League was traded to Seattle in a three player deal that brought Brandon Morrow (6.7 fWAR in ~300 IP) to Toronto.
2002:
Top draftee: SS Russ Adams (1st round, 14th overall)
Best pick: RHP Dave Bush (2nd round)
The 2002 draft was yet another that did not yield much in terms of talent for Toronto, though the rest of baseball made out alright. The three picks immediately after Russ Adams (15th, 16th, and 17th overall) all produced future All Stars in Scott Kazmir, Nick Swisher, and Cole Hamels. For comparison, Russ Adams produced a career -0.9 fWAR. The other three players produced 16.8, 23.0, and 23.4 fWAR respectively. Dave Bush, a 2nd rounder, was Toronto's best pick of the draft. Bush produced 3.5 fWAR in parts of 2 seasons for the Blue Jays before being shipped to Milwaukee in the Lyle Overbay trade. He gave Milwaukee a respectable 6.9 fWAR pitching both in the rotation and bullpen across 5 seasons, and is now pitching in the Texas Rangers organization.
2003:
Top draftee: SS Aaron Hill (1st round, 13th overall)
Best pick: RHP Shaun Marcum (3rd round)
Honorable mention: 3B Ryan Roberts (18th round)
Despite taking a shortstop in the first round of 2002, J.P. Ricciardi went that route again in 2003, and this time it actually worked out. Hill was moved to second base due to Russ Adams, and stayed there long after Russ Adams had left the organization. He entered 2011 with a career 13.5 fWAR over 6 years, but after producing negative value for Toronto this year, he was traded to Arizona. While Hill proved to be a strong pick, the best pick of the draft was Shaun Marcum, for two distinct reasons. First, he pitched well, and is now up to 10.0 career fWAR. Second, and perhaps more importantly, he was traded to Milwaukee (yes, those same Brewers!) in the 2010 offseason for Brett Lawrie. Despite having only a month worth of at-bats, Lawrie has nearly matched Marcum's production this year (2.0 to 2.6 fWAR). Ryan Roberts deserves mention, as he has carved out a solid major league career despite being drafted in the 18th round. He is having a career year with Arizona this year as they head to the post season, producing a 3.8 fWAR.
2004:
Top draftee: LHP David Purcey (1st round, 16th overall)
Best pick: 1B Adam Lind (3rd round)
Honorable mention: RHP Casey Janssen (4th round), RHP Jesse Litsch (24th round)
2004 should be considered a successful draft, as it produced four players who have spent extensive amounts of time in the major leagues. Purcey struggled in the minors as a starter and was eventually converted to a relief pitcher. He had a decent 2010 season (4.35 xFIP), but completely fell apart in 2011 and has been designated for assignment twice already this season. Lind, Janssen, and Litsch have producted similar value in Toronto (4.5, 4.0, and 3.7 fWAR respectively), but have achieved it in very different ways. Lind has 4 full seasons of at-bats, but his 3.7 fWAR 2009 season carried a majority of his career production to date. Janssen produced 1.2 fWAR in his single season of starting, and a respectable 2.8 fWAR in his 4 season of relief combined. Like Lind, Litsch produced a majority of his career value in one season (2008: 2.6 fWAR), though that can be atleast partially attributed to injuries over recent seasons.
2005:
Top draftee: LHP Ricky Romero (1st round, 6th overall)
Best pick: LHP Ricky Romero (1st round)
The 2005 draft was perhaps the most impressive of the 21st century. Of the 30 players taken in the first round, 8 have gone on to become All Stars (including Ricky Romero in 2011). Beyond those 8, the first round also produced 5 other above average major leaguers in Alex Gordon, Mike Pelfrey, Cameron Maybin, Matt Garza, and Colby Rasmus. The Romero pick was poorly received by the baseball world and Toronto alike, and looked particularly awful following the 2007 season in which Troy Tulowitzki (drafted 7th overall) burst onto the scene as a superstar. Over the last few seasons, however, Romero has established himself as Toronto's #1 starter, so this draft must be considered a success.
2006:
Top draftee: RF Travis Snider (1st round, 14th overall)
Best pick: RF Travis Snider (1st round)
Five years later, only two players from the 2006 draft have reached the majors -- Travis Snider and Brian Jeroloman. While his future potential has become cloudy due to consistent struggles over the past two season, Snider is without question the best player to come from this draft. Snider was J.P. Ricciardi's first highschool player taken in the first round, which was a nice change of pace from his conservative low-risk approach in earlier seasons. Whether or not that risk will pay off may still not be known for another two years.
2007:
Top draftee: SS Kevin Ahrens (1st round, 16th overall)
Best pick: LHP Brett Cecil (Supplementary 1st round), C J.P. Arencibia (1st round, 21st overall)
Honorable mention: LHP Marc Rzepczynski (5th round)
The 2007 draft was easily the best of J.P. Ricciardi's reign despite the fact 3 of the 5 first round picks have struggled in minor leagues. The best pick of this draft is a tie between Brett Cecil and J.P. Arencibia. Cecil has been a consistent starter in the major leagues over the past 2 years (4.15 xFIP, 4.48 xFIP), while Arencibia has performed well as a rookie catcher in 2011 (1.3 fWAR). Marc Rzepczynski deserves mention, as even though he had an up and down career over 3 years with Toronto, he was a key part of the trade with St. Louis that brought Colby Rasmus to Toronto.
I would break down the 8 drafts examined as follows:
Good drafts: 2003, 2004, 2007
Mediocre drafts: 2000, 2005, 2006
Poor drafts: 2001, 2002
For a draft to be considered successful, it is expected that is produces more than one player who produced signficant value at the major league level. 2003, 2004, and 2007 all had atleast two players reach the major leagues and have a quantifiable impact. I consider 2000, 2005, and 2006 to be mediocre drafts because they each produced only one major leaguer, though McGowan and Romero are special players. The 2006 draft is on the fence between mediocre and poor, as Snider is the only player it produced and he has yet to flourish in the major leagues. The 2001 and 2002 drafts were failures, though the players acquired through trade for the draftees should not go unnoticed.
When looking over this information, it is very understanable why Toronto was rated as having one of the worst minor league systems over much of the decade. With J.P. Ricciardi gone and Alex Anthopolous now running the show, it will be interesting to compare how the two contrasting draft styles stack up down the road. Anthopolous has received rave early reviews of his first two drafts as a general manager (2010 and 2011), but it won't be until 2015 when those draftees have seen substantial major league time that we will be able to comprehend how much of a success they were or weren't.
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