Monday, September 12, 2011

Top 15 Prospect Review: Hitters

#1: 3B Brett Lawrie

(MLB) 125 AB, .312/.386/.656 (1.042 OPS), 8 2B, 4 3B, 9 HR, 23 RBI, 6 SB, 13/25 BB/K
(AAA) 292 AB, .353/.415/.661 (1.076 OPS), 24 2B, 6 3B, 18 HR, 61 RBI, 13 SB, 26/53 BB/K

2011 Breakdown: After being acquired from the Brewers in the offseason, high expectations were placed upon Brett Lawrie. Lawrie was a true top-prospect, and as a Canadian, Blue Jays fans had hopes he could become the next Canadian superstar, like Morneau and Votto before him. Lawrie met those lofty expectations and then some, and likely would have won the AL Rookie of the Year if not for a broken hand in June that caused him to miss nearly two months. Lawrie has already moved up from 8th to 5th (on occasion) in the batting order, which suggests John Farrell will remove the kid gloves in 2012 and let the world see what Brett can do.

2012 Prospect status: N/A (graduated from prospect status)

#3: C J.P. Arencibia

(MLB) 398 AB, .219/.278/.447 (.725 OPS), 17 2B, 4 3B, 22 HR, 72 RBI, 1 SB, 31/124 BB/K

2011 Breakdown: Arencibia was called up in late 2010, but Cito Gaston's insistence on playing free agent-to-be John Buck dramatically cut down Arencibia's playing time, which left him as a huge question mark entering 2011. Arencibia started off hot, but has struggled throughout the rest of the year. His 7.1 walk percentage is a pleasant surprise, and ranks 4th among current Blue Jays regulars. Arencibia's biggest problem has been strikeouts, and while they may always been an issue with his uppercut swing, reducing his strikeout rate from its current 28.5% to around 20% would make a huge improvement in his overall batting numbers.

2012 Prospect status: N/A (graduated from prospect status)

#4: CF Anthony Gose

(AA) 509 AB, .253/.349/.415 (.763 OPS), 20 2B, 7 3B, 16 HR, 59 RBI, 70 SB, 62/154 BB/K

2011 Breakdown: Gose spent the entire 2011 season as the starting centerfielder for the prospect-rich New Hampshire Fishers Cats ball club. While strikeouts were still an issue, his 10.6% walk rate and 70/85 (82.4%) stolen base numbers give hope that he could hit near the top of a major league lineup at some point in the future. The batting numbers remained near his career averages -- subpar, but he did see an unexpected spike in his power numbers, more than doubling his previous career high in home runs. Some have attributed this to a short right field porch in his home stadium, however he hit 7 of his 16 home runs on the road. Additionally, many reports of his home park home runs have described them as bombs.

2012 Prospect status: Rising

#6: C Travis d'Arnaud

(AA) 424 AB, .311/.371/.542 (.914 OPS), 33 2B, 1 3B, 21 HR, 78 RBI, 4 SB, 33/100 BB/K

2011 Breakdown: When considering position, d'Arnaud had perhaps the best overall season by any Toronto hitting prospect in 2011. d'Arnaud had always been known as a player with all the tools to be a great catcher, but the numbers had never lived up to the hype. That all came to an end in 2011. d'Arnaud stayed healthy for nearly the entire season, and put together a batting line deserving of the Eastern League MVP award. d'Arnaud has shot up prospects list during the year, and is now arguably the top catching prospect in all of baseball (most experts are split on d'Arnaud and Devin Mesoraco of the Reds). With the graduation of Toronto's top three prospects, d'Arnaud has a legitimate chance to bear the title of Toronto's number one minor leaguer.

2012 Prospect status: Rising

#8: C Carlos Perez

(A) 383 AB, .256/.320/.355 (.675 OPS), 17 2B, 6 3B, 3 HR, 41 RBI, 6 SB, 37/74 BB/K

2011 Breakdown: Carlos Perez was a huge disappointment in 2011. He had shown all of the tools you could want from a catcher in his first three professional seasons, but that did not remain true this year. With a young player like Perez, the biggest hope is that he can translate those tools from short-season ball to full-year ball. The reason for Perez' drop-off in production is impossible to know without being around the team all year, but one can only hope it's fatigue related, not ability related. 2012 will be a huge test for Perez to re-establish himself, but at this point some of his prospect shine has worn off.

2012 Prospect status: Diminishing

#11: CF Jake Marisnick

(A) 462 AB, .320/.392/.496 (.888 OPS), 27 2B, 6 3B, 14 HR, 77 RBI, 37 SB, 43/91 BB/K

2011 Breakdown: Much like d'Arnaud, Marisnick took the huge step of translating tools into legitimate production. Marisnick has always been known as an athlete and a guy "who looks good in a uniform", but he became a baseball player in 2011. Recently named one of Kevin Goldstein's 10 most interesting prospect stories of the year, he mentions how Marisnick is one of the few players you can call a true 5-tool talent without looking like an idiot. In addition to posting an awesome batting line, Marisnick racked up the cumulative stats all year, totalling 47 extra base hits and 37 stolen bases. Perhaps the most impressive aspect of Marisnick's season was his ability to avoid slumps. In his worst month of the year, May, he still managed a respectable .713 OPS. He had an .800+ OPS in the other four full months.

2012 Prospect status: Rising

#12: SS Adeiny Hechavarria

(AAA) 108 AB, .389/.431/.537 (.968 OPS), 6 2B, 2 3B, 2 HR, 11 RBI, 1 SB, 8/21 BB/K
(AA) 464 AB, .235/.275/.347 (.622 OPS), 22 2B, 6 3B, 6 HR, 46 RBI, 19 SB, 25/78 BB/K

2011 Breakdown: A lot was expected from Hechavarria, and for the most part he failed to deliver. After hitting .273/.305/.360 in New Hampshire in 2010 after a midseason callup, it was hoped Hech could match or even exceed those numbers in his second go around with the Fisher Cats. The opposite happened. Hechavarria's batting line plummeted to .235/.275/.347 in 2011. Despite this, he was promoted to Las Vegas late in the year to work with hitting coach Chad Mottola. He did have a strong month with the 51's, but it's exactly that, a month. If Hechavarria wants to re-establish his prospect status, he'll need to show something with the bat in 2012, and string together those strong months into something tangible.

2012 Prospect status: Diminishing

#13: LF Eric Thames

(MLB) 304 AB, .263/.311/.457 (.768 OPS), 21 2B, 4 3B, 10 HR, 32 RBI, 2 SB, 18/73 BB/K
(AAA) 210 AB, .352/.423/.610 (1.033 OPS), 25 2B, 4 2B, 7 HR, 45 RBI, 5 SB, 23/41 BB/K

2011 Breakdown: Like Lawrie, Thames split the year between Las Vegas and Toronto. However, unlike Brett Lawrie, Thames has struggled at times to make the adjustment to the more talented pitching. Despite never posting a walk rate below 8.9% in his minor league career, Thames is walking in only 5.5% of his plate appearances while striking out in 22.2% of his appearances -- not a great combination. While the power Thames has displayed has been impressive (his ISO of .194 is currently 4th among the Blue Jays starters), and his 22.7% line drive rate equally so, it's hard to project Thames as anything more than a .260-.270 hitter in the major leagues. Thames stole Travis Snider's left field job in the summer, and it's likely only one of the two will make the squad out of Spring Training. It should be an interesting battle to watch.

2012 Prospect status: N/A (graduated from prospect status)

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