At the time, McGowan was finally establishing himself as a pitcher. After struggling with relief roles and bouncing to and from the minor league in 2005 and 2006, McGowan was handed the reins of a rotation spot in May 2007. He started with a trio of ugly starts, but McGowan began put it together. His 5.90 April ERA and 4.54 June ERA were countered by strong second half. In 15 starts after the All Star break, McGowan threw 98 innings and accumulated 87 strikeouts, while pitching to a 3.67 ERA and 1.14 WHIP.
The 2008 season appeared to have a lot of promise. The staff ace, Roy Halladay, was poised for another run at a Cy Young. Mercenary for hire, AJ Burnett, was in the opt-out year of his contract, so big things were expected. Behind those two, the Blue Jays had two young pitchers in Dustin McGowan and Shaun Marcum ready to establish their legitimacy. The season went off-course with the McGowan injury, and was completely derailed a month later when Marcum also went down with an elbow injury. While Marcum did miss the entire 2009 season, his injury, surgery, and rehab was relatively straight forward, as Tommy John surgery has become so common the recovery rate is near 100%. McGowan, on the other hand...July 2008 -- Season-ending surgery to repair fraying in right shoulder labrum
July 2009 -- Season-ending surgery to repair articular cartilage damage in knee
June 2010 -- Season-ending surgery to repair torn rotator cuff in right shoulder
While the July 2009 knee surgery only required 6 weeks for recovery, it happened so late in the season that McGowan rehabilitation program had to be shut down. Unlike Tommy John, a surgery in which a ligament is taken from the leg and grafted into the elbow to replace the torn UCL, shoulder surgeries are a lot more complex and the history of successful recoveries is a much shorter list. A lot of this has to due with elbows being a simple hinge joint (like a knee), while shoulders are a socket joint (like a hip).
Leading up to his return on September 6th, McGowan had a long and intense minor league rehab assignment. While he did not pitch many innings, the Blue Jays had him working on regular starter rest, pitching every 5th day with a minor league starter piggy-backing the rest of his games. He made 7 starts with Dunedin and 5 starts with New Hampshire, totalling 35.1 innings. McGowan pitched well, posting a 35/14 K/BB ratio as well as a 2.80 ERA and 1.27 WHIP. The results, along with his health, lead to a September callup that Dustin had probably been dreaming about every night for the past three years.
While the sample size is extremely small (merely 74 pitches), McGowan appears to have maintained the quality of stuff than had people declaring him as a future top of the rotation starter back in 07/08. His fastball displayed similar velocity and movement (93.9 mph in 2011, 94.3 mph in 2008). His power slider is actually coming in harder (88.2 mph in 2011, 87.6 mph in 2008), but is slightly flatter. His curveball much the same, though both instances could be the result of nerves causing him to overthrow. The biggest change in his arsenal is his changeup. McGowan is throwing it nearly twice as often (13.5% in 2011, 7.6% in 2008), mostly at the expense of his fastball, and it is breaking more than it ever has. The issue of small sample size cannot be emphasized enough, but McGowan PitchFx data will definitely be something to monitor as he works every 5th day for the remainder of the season.
The question is, what can we expect from McGowan now and in the future? Both he and the front office have stated they believe it would be easier to maintain his health if he has the steady routine of a starter, but have both also left the door open for an audition as the closer. I was on the closer bandwagon, as outlined in this post, but after watching McGowan pitch to the Red Sox, I am certainly intrigued with the possibility of him returning to the rotation. If the Blue Jays do allow him to the start in 2012, I expect him to have extremely strict pitch and inning limits throughout the season, as he has barely thrown over the past three years. I do expect that if McGowan starts the year in the rotation, he will eventually be moved to the bullpen somewhere around the All Star break in an effort to protect his arm for the future.
Regardless of the outcome, McGowan's story is a great one and I wish it received more publicity in the United States than it has. In my 15 years or so of being a sports fan, I can't think of an athlete who has gone over three years without playing a game due to a series of serious injures, but has fought through them in pursuit of the game he loves. In a perfect world, McGowan would put stay healthy and put together a strong season, helping to lead the 2012 Toronto Blue Jays to the playoffs for the first time in 19 years. Whether or not that comes true is impossible to know, but a guy can dream, can't he?
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