Saturday, July 9, 2011

#8: C Carlos Perez


Name: Carlos Perez
Position: Catcher
Acquired: Undrafted free agent (2008)
Opening Day age: 20
Height/weight: 6'0", 193 lbs
Best/worst tool: Fielding/power

Scouting Report:

Carlos Perez is a very athletic and well rounded catching prospect. He shows plus defense as well as an outstanding arm behind the plate. He has historically been in the 40% range for caught stealing, which is even more incredible when you consider the young athletes that fill the leagues that Perez has played in. In addition to his great defensive tools, Perez has shown good bat skills in his career as well as a solid approach at the plate. Entering 2011, Perez was a career .299 hitter across three minor league seasons with a strong 102:92 BB/K ratio in 167 games. His 16 stolen bases in that period display his athleticism, but the 13 caught stealings suggest his baserunning needs some refinement. The only tool Carlos Perez has been lacking in to this point in his career is power, wih only 3 HR (48 total XBH). The bat and power should continue to improve as he grows and matures, but his defense will be what gets him to the major leagues. Anything he can do with the bat is gravy.

2010 Stats: .298/.396/.438 (.834 OPS), 11 2B, 8 3B, 2 HR, 41 RBI, 7 SB

2010 Analysis:

The 2010 season was a big step forward for Carlos Perez. He had spent 2008 and 2009 with the Blue Jays Dominican and Gulf Coast affilates, which are leagues filled with highly unpolished 16-18 year old imports. He spent the 2010 season with Auburn in the New York - Penn League, a league normally filled with top high school and young college draftees. The 19 year old Perez held his own, posting solid numbers across the board on his way to being named an All Star.

2011 Stats: .259/.319/.360 (.679 OPS), 11 2B, 4 3B, 2 HR, 25 RBI, 5 SB

2011 Analysis:

Similar to his jump in 2010, Perez was met with another substantial challenge in making the leap from Auburn to Lansing in the Midwest League. He started off strongly with an April triple slash line similar to that of his minor league career, however Perez struggled through the months of May and June, causing his overall numbers to drop off noticably. While he is still showing an above average walk percentage, it is substantially lower than his career rate, which is slightly concerning. Similar to his previous seasons, his power has been in the form of doubles and triples as opposed to home runs. However, given that he is still only 20 years old and the Midwest League is known for its pitcher, the lack of home runs is a non-issue at this point.

Future outlook:

With Arencibia in Toronto, d'Arnaud in New Hampshire, and Jimenez in Dunedin, Perez will not be rushed and is still a long way from the major leagues. He will likely follow behind Jimenez level by level, continuing his trend of taking a full season at each level as he advances. With 2011 in Lansing, that would put 2012 in Dunedin, 2013 in New Hampshire, and 2014 likely between Triple-A and Toronto. Perez' defense will keep him progressing through the minors, but it will be the development of his bat that will determine whether or not he'll be a regular or a backup once he reaches the show.

Perfect world projection: Everyday MLB catcher, possible All-Star appearances in his prime, consistent contender for Gold Glove awards.

Worst case scenario: Backup MLB catcher. Defensive tools like Perez' don't come around often.

Most likely outcome: Solid, everyday MLB catcher. If taking into account offense, defense, and baserunning, likely top-10 at his position in the majors. His most likely outcome is not far off his perfect world projection, the strength of his bat will be the biggest determining factor.

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