Thursday, July 14, 2011

Midseason Report: Single-A Lansing


Team Record: 49-37 (1st in Eastern Division)
Number of team Top 15 prospects: 3 -- Marisnick, Perez, Hutchison

Similar to Dunedin, the Lansing Lugnuts have a strong roster overall despite having only 3 of the Blue Jays top 15 prospects. Top prospect or not, the offense is loaded with young players with potential, which has led to the Lugnuts being 2nd in the Midwest League in team OPS (.729). Additionally, all three Lansing outfielders made the All Star team as starters, with one playing designated hitter. The pitching has been less impressive, though they do still have a solid 3.92 team ERA, which ranks 11th in the league.

Notable hitters:

CF Jake Marisnick: .313/.380/.476 (.855 OPS), 18 2B, 4 3B, 7 HR, 55 RBI, 22 SB, 24/59 BB/K

Jake Marisnick has easily been the MVP of the Lugnuts squad thus far, and his above batting line is indicative why. Marisnick was named as a starter to the MWL All Star game, and has finally put up the numbers that his projectibility and tools suggest he's capable of. His performance has drawn the attention of most prospect aficionados, and will likely cause him to creep into Top 100 lists this coming winter.

LF Marcus Knecht: .311/.409/.507 (.917 OPS), 22 2B, 9 HR, 48 RBI, 41/72 BB/K

The Toronto native who was drafted in the 3rd round in 2010 has made a huge splash in his first full professional season. Like Marisnick, he was named to the MWL All Star team as the starter in left field due to his outstanding success at the plate (his .917 OPS is 3rd in the MWL). What has been most impressive about Knecht is his walk percentage, which is remarkable for a 20 year old.

RF Michael Crouse: .261/.344/.467 (.811 OPS). 20 2B, 5 3B, 9 HR, 47 RBI, 26 SB, 30/85 BB/K

The second Canadian in Lansing's outfield is the toolsy Michael Crouse. His style is a contrast to Knecht's, as Crouse takes an aggressive approach both at the plate and on the basepaths, and has a strong arm in right field. Also an All Star, Crouse was the Eastern Division's starting DH.

C Carlos Perez: .268/.324/.368 (.692 OPS), 12 2B, 4 3B, 2 HR, 26 RBI, 6 SB, 23/54 BB/K

Carlos Perez, Toronto's #8 prospect, has had a difficult season by his standards, though it is still decent for a catcher with such defensive prowess. While the dip in batting average isn't positive, the lack of power development and the decrease in his walk rate would have to be the two biggest disappointments of his season.

1B K.C. Hobson: .266/.371/.352 (.722 OPS), 14 2B, 3 HR, 37 RBI, 48/51 BB/K

The 20 year old Hobson has not shown the power you'd like to see out of a first base prospect, but his walk to strikeout ratio is too impressive to ignore. Hobson was drafted in the 6th round in 2009, and while it's doubtful he'll ever be a significant top 30 prospect in Toronto's system, he should be a useful piece in the organization.

Notable pitchers:

RHP Drew Hutchison: 72 IP, 68 H, 21 ER. 1 HR, 19 BB, 84 K, 2.63 ERA, 1.21 WHIP

The true ace of Lansing's staff, Hutchison recently earned a promotion to Dunedin to continue his development. However, while he was with the Lugnuts he dominated his opposition, highlighted by a 30+ consecutive scoreless inning streak, during which he made the leap to Dunedin. Hutchison was recently named to Keith Law's midseason Top 50 prospects, which speaks to just how successful and impressive Hutch has been this year.

RHP Casey Lawrence: 85.2 IP, 95 H, 36 ER, 7 HR, 17 BB, 68 K, 3.78 ERA, 1.31 WHIP

The 23 year old Lawrence was the opening day starter for Lansing this year, and he had a solid but unspectacular first half. Similar to K.C. Hobson, Lawrence is more of organizational depth than top 30 prospect material, as you would like to see more out of a 23 year old in A-ball. His biggest strength to the organization may be his ability to eat innings and lower the workload on some of the younger pitching prospects.

LHP Sean Nolin: 54 IP, 51 H, 24 ER, 5 HR, 15 BB, 55 K, 4.00 ERA, 1.22 WHIP

Drafted in the 6th round in 2010, Nolin is an imposing lefty standing at 6'5" and weighing 235 lbs. Nolin features three decent pitches -- a fastball, changeup, and curveball, and throws them will solid command. Despite not having any plus pitches (his changeup is his best pitch at above average), Nolin's ERA does not due justice to how well he has pitched, as he has strong hit, strikeout, walk, and home run numbers. Given his size it's unlikely he'll add to his fastball, so unless his secondary pitches improve dramatically he's likely organizational depth.

RHP Danny Barnes: 43.2 IP, 30 H, 14 ER, 2 HR, 12 BB, 68 K, 2.89 ERA, 0.96 WHIP

Barnes has flown under the radar since being drafted in the 35th round of the 2010 draft, but the Princeton product (yes, that Princeton) has done nothing but perform in his two years in the Blue Jays system. Barnes is a reliever with a 3/4 arm slot who throws a decent low 90's fastball as well as a changeup, curveball, and slider. After struggling against lefties in College and as a pro in 2010, his changeup has developed enough for Barnes to be used against both lefties and righties, which should improve his chances of reaching the majors.

Rest of the year outlook:

Lansing has already locked down a playoff spot, but exactly who will be on the roster when the playoffs roll around is another question. The starting rotation has already lost Drew Hutchison, and Casey Lawrence likely isn't far behind. Regardless, the strength of this Lugnuts roster has been the offense, and the fate of Lansing's three outfielders will likely determine the club's success in the playoffs. Despite all three being only 20 years old, they have proven they can handle Single-A ball and are ready for High-A. The question is whether or not they are late season promotions to Dunedin, or if they simply start there in 2012. I think it would be best for the three to stay and finish what they started with Lansing, and compete for the Midwest League championship. The three could then start 2012 in Dunedin and hopefully carry over their camaraderie and success.

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