The market for Prince Fielder

With the impeding free agency of Milwaukee Brewers slugger Prince Fielder, it might be a good time to look at the type of market he will be entering, and whether or not the Toronto Blue Jays might be interested. Fielder will be 27 years old when free agency rolls around in November, and could very well be coming off an MVP caliber season. Due to his current size (5'11", ~270 lbs), his defensive deficiencies (he's been a negative UZR in 5 of his 6 seasons), and the length of contract (rumored to be seeking 8 years) he's likely to demand, National League teams can basically be ruled out on Fielder. He probably should be now, and definitely will be in the future, a designated hitter. To further narrow it down, we must look at the players each American League team is currently employing at first base and designated hitter.

Baltimore: Derrek Lee (1B), Vladimir Guerrero (DH)
Boston: Adrian Gonzalez (1B), David Ortiz (DH)
New York: Mark Teixeira (1B), Jorge Posada (DH)
Tampa Bay: Casey Kotchman (1B), Johnny Damon (DH)
Toronto: Adam Lind (1B), Edwin Encarnacion (DH)

Chicago: Paul Konerko (1B), Adam Dunn (DH)
Cleveland: Matt LaPorta (1B), Travis Hafner (DH)
Detroit: Miguel Cabrera (1B), Victor Martinez (DH)
Kansas City: Eric Hosmer (1B), Billy Butler (DH)
Minnesota: Justin Morneau* (1B), Jim Thome / Jason Kubel* (DH)

Los Angeles: Mark Trumbo / Kendry Morales* (1B), Bobby Abreu (DH)
Oakland: Connor Jackson (1B), Hideki Matsui (DH)
Seattle: Justin Smoak (1B), Adam Kennedy (DH)
Texas: Mitch Moreland (1B), Michael Young (DH)

* = currently injured

Of the 14 American League teams, 8 teams have a current opening at first base or designated hitter. Those teams are: Baltimore, New York, Tampa Bay, Toronto, Minnesota, Los Angeles, Oakland, and Seattle. Of those 8, you can quickly eliminate Tampa Bay and Oakland, as neither would ever spend the money in free agency that signing Prince Fielder would require. That leaves 6 teams, each of whom is worthy of a deeper investigation.

Baltimore: The Orioles were huge players in the Mark Teixeira sweepstakes a few years ago. That was likely due in part to their urge to appease a fan base that is tired of losing, but also because Teixeira is a Maryland native and hero-like figure in Baltimore. Their pursuits were bested by the Yankees, and since then have had a revolving door at first base and designated hitter, most recently filled by failed free agent signings Lee and Guerrero. O's owner Peter Angelos has the money to compete with anybody and the Orioles have the roster spots, so the biggest questions may be whether or not they want to further hinder their rebuild when they still have so many holes, and if they do, whether or not Fielder is willing to play long term on a team with minimal playoff hopes.

New York: There will never be a question as to whether or not the Steinbrenner family can afford a free agent, but for the first time in a long time, it's unlikely they'll show much of an interest in either of the two first baseman free agents (Fielder and Pujols). They have the rock steady Mark Teixeira locked up to play first base, and their designated hitter position has been used to cycle through their expensive, veteran hitters in need of a day off (Posada, Rodriguez, Jeter, Jones, Swisher). Additionally, they have a catching prospect in Triple-A, Jesus Montero, who is so poor defensively he is without a doubt a future 1B/DH type. Unless he is used as trade bait, the Yankees will need to keep the designated hitter spot free for when he arrives in the major leagues.

Toronto: The Blue Jays are a dark horse in the competition for the big free agent first baseman, but their interest level remains unknown due to the tight-lipped policy of the front office. The 27 year old Fielder fits into the Blue Jays timeline a lot better than the older Albert Pujols, and while they are not yet a true contender, Toronto has a young roster as well as a strong farm system and may be on the verge of October baseball. The potential addition of a 2nd Wildcard spot in each league only brings them closer. While signing players to mega contracts may not seem like Toronto's style at this point, particularly after just living through the Vernon Wells fiasco, what Toronto must realize is that Jose Bautista will be 31 at the start of next season, and if they want him to be a big part of a playoff team, they need to make their move in the next couple of years. The Rogers corporation is one of the richest ownership groups in baseball, so if GM Alex Anthopolous deems Fielder a good investment, he will have the required financial backing.

Minnesota: While Jim Thome is likely approaching retirement, it's unlikely the Twins would consider Fielder for two major reasons. First, the Twins two superstars (Morneau and Mauer) have proven to be fragile recently, and the front office might want to see Mauer start spending a lot more time at designated hitter in an attempt to protect their investment. Second, the Twins have never been major players in free agency. They typically either re-sign their own players to big deals, or trade impending free agents away for young players. Despite having a possible opening, the Twins will not be interested.

Los Angeles: The Angels are in a similar position to the Yankees in that they have a strong first baseman (Morales, when healthy) and a designated hitter position that gets cycled through veteran hitters to keep them well rested. Vernon Wells and Torii Hunter are both aging, expensive outfielders, and it's possible one may become a permanent designated hitter in the near future if the Angels want to play both Bourjos and Trout in the outfield for a stronger overall defense.

Seattle: The Mariners, like the Blue Jays, may be a dark horse in the Fielder market. They have an outstanding pitching staff anchored by King Felix and Pineda that is only going to improve over the next few seasons as their top prospects mature and reach the majors. Their offense, however, has been the Achilles heel of the team over the past few seasons, consistently ranking near the bottom in most offensive categories (2011: 29th in ISO, 30th in SLG, 30th in wOBA, 30th in wRC+, 30th in WAR). While Fielder couldn't solve those issues all on his own, he may atleast help bring the offense to respectability which, with that pitching staff, may be enough to compete in the AL West. Much like Toronto, the Mariners ownership has some substantial coin in their coffers, and has shown a willingness to spend.


Given the information we have, I can safely eliminate New York, Minnesota, and Los Angeles from the Fielder sweepstakes. That leaves Baltimore, Toronto, and Seattle in competition for his services. All three teams have a rich ownership group, which raises the question as to how much a Prince Fielder contract is worth. Fielder's agent, Scott Boras, has floated the 8/200 figure, but I can't see him getting either the term (8 years) or salary (25M). Fielder is in direct competition with Albert Pujols for suitors, and the usual suspects will not be around to drive up the price. The Yankees and Angels are doubtful to be interested, the Red Sox don't have a need, and the Mets and Dodgers are broke. Fielder may end up having to choose whether he wants security at a more reasonable salary (perhaps 6/120 or 7/140), or whether he wants to cash out big on a shorter deal (perhaps 3/75 or 4/95), because I can't see Baltimore, Toronto, or Seattle giving him both term and salary without the competition of a big market team driving both numbers upward.

If I were a betting man, I'd probably put the odds as 40% Seattle, 25% Toronto, 25% Baltimore, 10% Other.