Henderson Alvarez' rising stock

During the 2009 season, Henderson Alvarez was widely considered to be the Blue Jays #1 pitching prospect, if not their #1 prospect overall. He featured a decent low 90's fastball as well as a good changeup, but as a lanky 19 year old in the low minors, it was difficult to make any kind of informed projection on the type of pitcher he could become.

At the season wore on, then General Manager J.P. Ricciardi made a substantial trade, sending Scott Rolen to the Cincinnati Reds at the trade deadline in exchange for Edwin Encarnacion and young pitchers Josh Roenicke and Zach Stewart. Stewart, the 22 year old flame throwing right hander (selected in the 3rd round of the 2008 draft) was the prize of the deal, and as such, media and bloggers across the nation turned their attention his way. To further compound Alvarez' prospect visibility issues, late 2009 was also the timeframe for the Roy Halladay situation. Excitment was spreading over which pitching prospects the Blue Jays may receive in exchange for the good doctor, and once again Alvarez was widely ignored.

At the end of the season, J.P. Ricciardi was replaced by new GM Alex Anthopolous, and on December 16th 2009 he made the transaction that may forever define his legacy: trading Roy Halladay to the Philadelphia Phillies for Kyle Drabek, Travis d'Arnaud, and Brett Wallace (via Oakland). Drabek had been the apple in the eye of most Blue Jays fans (and the management) as the Halladay rumors circulated, and with him now in the fold, Toronto had their new #1 prospect. During the winter leading up to the 2010 season, all of the major prospect outlets released their team-by-team rankings, and despite his outstanding 2009 season Alvarez was typically placed in the 6-10 range (8th for Baseball America, 9th for Baseball Prospectus).

His prospect status was damaged in 2009, but the 2010 season nearly destroyed it. Henderson Alvarez was promoted to Dunedin as a 20 year old, and the results were subpar given the expectations he created after a fine 2009 season with the Lansing Lugnuts. Outside of an increased groundball rate, Alvarez saw all of his important stats get worse: higher opponent batting average / walk rate / home run rate, lower strikeout rate. Despite this, Alvarez was named to the World squad of the 2010 MLB Futures game, an exhibition game for top prospects to showcase themselves during All Star weekend.

With a number of high picks due to free agency and an aggressive approach at the draft, Toronto saw an influx of new, high celing prospects enter the farm system in the summer of 2010. From Alvarez' perspective, this further diminished his prospect stock, as in the winter of 2010 he was ranked outside Baseball America's Top 10, and 16th on both Baseball Prospectus' list and my own personal rankings.

Despite his struggles with High-A Dunedin in 2010, the Blue Jays front office decided to challenge Alvarez in 2011 by sending him to New Hampshire (after a quick rehab stint with Dunedin in April). He met the challenge with an outstanding first half, and was once again named as the Blue Jays representative at the MLB Futures game during All Star weekend. His improvement from the 2010 season to now goes beyond statistics (to which the improvements are substantial), as what often gets forgotten when discussing Henderson Alvarez is his age. He is in the upper minors as a 21 year old, and is still maturing as a baseball player and growing into his body. Alvarez has always been known for an unbelievable changeup, but he has taken his fastball a step further this year. What was once a 90-92 mph fastball now sits 94-96 mph and, according to his New Hampshire pitching coach Pete Walker, has touched 101 mph in starts for the Fisher Cats this season.

With such a potent 1-2 punch, one might wonder why Alvarez does not have overpowering strikeout numbers. The reason is simple; Alvarez does not possess a strong enough breaking pitch. A strong fastball-changeup combination will destroy a hitter's timing if used properly, which will cause him to be early or late on his swing, depending upon the order in which they are thrown. This will cause a lot of weak contact, which explains both the variations in opposing batting average throughout his career, as well as a consistently strong ground ball percentage. Breaking pitches (such as a slider or curveball) are the prototypical swing and miss pitches, which results in a lot of strikeouts. This is because when executed properly, the ball will start within the strikezone, but as the batter begins to swing the ball moves out of strikezone and out of the hitter's swing plane.

Henderon Alvarez' primary breaking pitch is a slider, but it is very far behind his other two offerings. If the slider can continue to develop, even to just an average offering, Alvarez would have a ferocious arsenal and the long awaited gaudy strikeout numbers would arrive. What cannot be emphasized enough when discussing Alvarez is his age. To put it into perspective, if he were born in the United States he would be a college junior. College pitchers with two plus pitches and plus command usually go in the top 10 picks of the 1st round. Prospect folks, myself included, clearly lost sight of this over the past 2 seasons and passed judgement far too early. What Alvarez has done in 2011 is start to put it together, and to fully regain his prospect sparkle and receive the attention he deserves he must continue to do so. If his slider comes around, the sky will be the limit and Alvarez will be a force to be reckoned with -- and not only in the minor leagues, he's already knocking on the door in Toronto.

Images courtesy Mark Bolton (Union Leader) and John Lott (National Post).