Showing posts with label Brett Lawrie. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Brett Lawrie. Show all posts

Tuesday, October 18, 2011

Making the Grade: The Infield


The third segment of "Making the Grade" will be Toronto's infielders. While shortstop and catcher remained constant, the remaining three infield positions were in flux throughout the season due to injuries, struggles, callups, and trades. This list will be for infielders who finished the season with the major league club, or played in 50 games with the club throughout the duration of the season.

Part I Making the Grade: The Starters
Part II Making the Grade: The Bullpen
Part IV Making the Grade: The Outfield

C JP Arencibia (25)
443 AB, .219/.282/.438 (.720 OPS), 20 2B, 4 3B, 23 HR, 78 RBI, 1 SB, 36/133 BB/K

Arencibia had a mixed bag of a first season in Toronto. He displayed his highly regarded power (23 home runs) and displayed it consistently (between 3 and 5 home runs every month). His plate approach was surprisingly better than expected, as his 36 walks were good for a 7.4% walk rate. His biggest issue, at least offensively, was making contact. Arencibia hit only .219 with a 27.4% strikeout rate. His BABIP was a below average .255, and his 15.7 LD% suggests it wasn't just bad luck that killed his average. Arencibia will need to make strides with the bat to be an above average catcher, but his rookie season was promising.

Grade: B-

C Jose Molina (36)
171 AB, .281/.342/.415 (.757 OPS), 12 2B, 1 3B, 3 HR, 15 RBI, 2 SB, 15/44 BB/K

Molina had an exceptional offensive season (for a backup catcher). His defense, however, took a dramatic step back from 2010. While he is still one of the best in the game at framing pitches and has a great arm, Molina's fielding behind the plate fell off noticably. He gave up more passed balls (8) than he had in any previous season despite playing his 2nd fewest innings since 2003. Whether it's because of old legs, lack of effort on a non-contending team, or something else, I have no idea. But it could be a cause for concern.

Grade: A-

1B Adam Lind (28)
499 AB, .251/.295/.439 (.734 OPS), 16 2B, 0 3B, 26 HR, 87 RBI, 1 SB, 32/107 BB/K

With Aaron Hill gone, Adam Lind has taken over the title as the most frustrating hitter to watch on the roster. For the second straight season, Lind hit 20+ home runs. However, for the second straight season, Lind had a sub-.300 OBP. That's not going to cut it as a first baseman, particularly in the AL East. Lind's struggles were magnified by the fact he hit cleanup for much of the season, and Jose Bautista's .447 OBP created a vast number of opportunities for Lind in key situations. His 2009 season is quickly becoming a distant memory, and it might be time to move on.

Grade: C-

1B Edwin Encarnacion (28)
481 AB, .272/.334/.453 (.787 OPS), 36 2B, 0 3B, 17 HR, 55 RBI, 8 SB, 43/77 BB/K

What started off as a nightmare blossomed into a mid-career revival. After a dismal 2010 season, many Blue Jays fans (myself included) had a very short leash for Encarnacion as a regular in the lineup. Encarnacion struggled horrificly during April and May, but slowly turned his season around during June. He was one of Toronto's best hitters in the 2nd half, hitting .291/.382/.504 (.887 OPS) after the All Star Break. He likely did enough to have his contract option for 2012 picked up, and should have either the first base or designated hitter spot locked up next spring.

Grade: B+

2B Kelly Johnson (29)
545 AB, .222/.304/.413 (.717 OPS)
27 2B, 7 3B, 21 HR, 58 RBI, 16 SB, 60/163 BB/K

Acquired from the Diamondbacks after the non-waiver trade deadline, Johnson established himself as the favorite for the 2012 second base job in Toronto by hitting .270/.364/.417 (.781 OPS) in 115 AB after the trade. While he has noticable flaws in his game -- particularly with making contact -- Johnson has more than enough talent and tools to be an above average starting second baseman. After watching Aaron Hill flail helplessly at the plate for nearly two seasons, Johnson is a welcome change.

Grade: B

3B Brett Lawrie (21)
150 AB, .293/.373/.580 (.953 OPS)
8 2B, 4 3B, 9 HR, 25 RBI, 7 SB, 16/31 BB/K

Brett Lawrie did everything expected of him and more during the 2011 season. He laid waste to the Pacific Coast League before suffering a broken hand in late May that delayed his promotion to the major leagues. After being sidelined for nearly two months plus a short rehab stint, Lawrie was called up to Toronto where he absolutely crushed the ball. His wOBA ranked 2nd on the team behind Jose Bautista, and after a few initial struggles he proved to be an above average defensive third baseman.

Grade: A+

3B Mark Teahen (30)
160 AB, .200/.273/.300 (.573 OPS), 4 2B, 0 3B, 4 HR, 14 RBI, 0 SB, 16/45 BB/K

There's really nothing positive to say about Mark Teahen's season other than that he helped bring Colby Rasmus to Toronto. He's been a negative WAR player for 4 years running, and -- thanks to Kenny Williams -- he's still owed 5.5M next season. He's a poor fielder at basically every position and has no utility on the basepaths. It would be wise to eat the contract during the offseason to clear up space on the 25 and 40 man rosters.

Grade: F

SS Yunel Escobar (28)
513 AB, .290/.369/.413 (.782 OPS)
24 2B, 3 3B, 11 HR, 48 RBI, 3 SB, 61/70 BB/K

Behind Jose Bautista, Escobar was the best hitter on the Blue Jays throughout the course of the season. After a subpar 2010, Escobar rediscovered the swing that made him one of the best hitters in Atlanta during 2008 and 2009 seasons. In addition to swinging a mean bat, Escobar removed some of the flash from his defensive game and focused on the fundamentals, which increased the quality of his throws across the diamond. Financially, his resurgence earned him a team-friendly contract extension.

Grade: A

SS Mike McCoy (30)
197 AB, .198/.291/.269 (.561 OPS), 8 2B, 0 3B, 2 HR, 10 RBI, 12 SB, 25/41 BB/K

Mike McCoy may have earned more Air Miles on his credit card this year than any other player in baseball, as he had more Toronto-to-Vegas flights (or vice versa) during the season than I care to count. Despite that, he still managed to play in 80 games with Toronto this year. McCoy had an opportunity to prove himself, particularly with an extended look in September while Escobar was injured, but he did not really impress me. He's solid with the glove and on the basepaths, but doesn't look like he'll ever hit enough to deserve 200 ABs in a season again. The failure out of the leadoff spot is as much John Farrell's fault as it is McCoy's.

Grade: D

Friday, September 23, 2011

Minor League Hitter of the Year

With the minor league seasons having reached completion, it is time to determine the Blue Jays minor league players of the year -- both hitter and pitcher. Unlike previous years, there are a wealth of candidates for these awards thanks to the overall depth of the farm system. In addition to the shear number of prospects, many of the high upside prospects had big years, causing the farm to look even better.

The candidates:

3B Brett Lawrie, Triple-A Las Vegas
300 AB, .347/.414/.647 (1.060 OPS), 24 2B, 6 3B, 18 HR, 62 RBI, 13 SB, 26/54 BB/K

Two major factors may have sabotaged Lawrie's chances to be the Blue Jays minor league hitter of the year. The first -- a hit-by-pitch suffered in a game in late May. Lawrie was having a truly insane month -- 1.170 OPS, 11 doubles, 3 triples, 11 home runs, and 14 walks. Reports were being leaked and discussed that a major league promotion was on the horizon for Lawrie, but the bruised hand was discovered to be a broken hand which resulted in 6 weeks on the minor league disabled list. Lawrie made his return in mid-July and picked up exactly where he left off, with a 1.122 OPS in the month which once again drove Blue Jays fans to demand the promotion of their much heralded top prospect. He finally received the big league call in early August, and he wouldn't play another minor league game after that. Between the aformentioned hand injury and the late season promotion, Lawrie only accumulated 300 minor league at-bats, which really cripples his chances. With 500 AB he's likely a shoe-in, but instead, he has a lot of competition.

C Travis d'Arnaud, Double-A New Hampshire
424 AB, .311/.371/.542 (.914 OPS), 33 2B, 1 3B, 21 HR, 78 RBI, 4 SB, 33/100 BB/K

The first of two Fisher Cat candidates, d'Arnaud made a monstrous leap as a prospect in 2011, finally putting some numbers behind the tools that scouts have been drooling over for years. d'Arnaud put his injury plagued debut season with Toronto behind him and helped lead New Hampshire to the Eastern League championship. Later named the Eastern League MVP, d'Arnaud put together a well rounded season that displayed his bat, power, and plate approach. Beyond the statistics, his defense received positive reviews, and assuming his back injuries are behind him he should have no difficulties staying behind the plate long term. d'Arnaud has developed himself from a mid-tier prospect in the Blue Jays system into arguably the best catcher in the minor leagues and Toronto's best prospect overall.

CF Anthony Gose, Double-A New Hampshire
509 AB, .253/.349/.415 (.763 OPS), 20 2B, 7 3B, 16 HR, 59 RBI, 70 SB, 62/154 BB/K

Progression was apparent in Gose' 2011 season, but his flaws were still very evident. The recently turned 21 year old has already played in three full seasons in the minor leagues as a former highschool pick, which speaks to the age discrepancy he has constantly fought through to post the numbers he has. The above statistics were collected while facing pitchers typically 1-4 years older than him, which does in a sense justify some of the strikeouts. Regardless, Gose made three substantial improvements to his game this year. First, after struggling to post ISO numbers over 100 through his career, Gose saw his power take a step forward, smashing 16 home runs with a 162 ISO. Second, Gose became a much more polished base stealer, improving his ratio from 58% (45/77) to 82% (70/85). Finally, he improved his walk rate for the third straight year, from 6.1% in 2009 to 8.1% in 2010 to 10.6% in 2011.

CF Jake Marisnick, Single-A Lansing
462 AB, .320/.392/.496 (.888 OPS), 27 2B, 6 3B, 14 HR, 77 RBI, 37 SB, 43/91 BB/K

Much like Travis d'Arnaud, Marisnick took the big step towards putting some numbers behind his jaw-dropping tools. The term is thrown around rather loosely, but Marisnick is a true 5-tool talent. What makes that even more impressive is that he displays these tools while playing centerfield. Marisnick's batting line looks impressive, but what is truly incredible is the consistency he displayed over his 118 games. On a month-to-month basis, Marisnick posted a .900+ OPS in three months (April, July, August), an .800+ OPS in one month (June), and a .700+ OPS in one month (May). In other words -- at best he played like an MVP, and at worst he played like a league average player -- and he played like the former far more often than the latter. Not only did Marisnick experience personal success, he led the Lansing Lugnuts to the Midwest League championship, though they failed to capture the title. Marisnick has flown up the prospect charts and has established himself as a legitimate top 5 prospect in the system, and possible top 50 in all of baseball.

The winner:

While the other three candidates all had outstanding seasons, I have to give the award to Jake Marisnick. Each of the other prospects had some factor working against them, while Marisnick was nearly flawless in his blitzkreig through the Midwest League. As an incredible athlete, the ceiling is limitless if he continues to show he can hit and hit for power. Marisnick will take his talents to Dunedin in 2012 and look to prove that this year was no fluke.

The Minor League Pitcher of the Year can be found here.

Monday, September 12, 2011

Top 15 Prospect Review: Hitters

#1: 3B Brett Lawrie

(MLB) 125 AB, .312/.386/.656 (1.042 OPS), 8 2B, 4 3B, 9 HR, 23 RBI, 6 SB, 13/25 BB/K
(AAA) 292 AB, .353/.415/.661 (1.076 OPS), 24 2B, 6 3B, 18 HR, 61 RBI, 13 SB, 26/53 BB/K

2011 Breakdown: After being acquired from the Brewers in the offseason, high expectations were placed upon Brett Lawrie. Lawrie was a true top-prospect, and as a Canadian, Blue Jays fans had hopes he could become the next Canadian superstar, like Morneau and Votto before him. Lawrie met those lofty expectations and then some, and likely would have won the AL Rookie of the Year if not for a broken hand in June that caused him to miss nearly two months. Lawrie has already moved up from 8th to 5th (on occasion) in the batting order, which suggests John Farrell will remove the kid gloves in 2012 and let the world see what Brett can do.

2012 Prospect status: N/A (graduated from prospect status)

#3: C J.P. Arencibia

(MLB) 398 AB, .219/.278/.447 (.725 OPS), 17 2B, 4 3B, 22 HR, 72 RBI, 1 SB, 31/124 BB/K

2011 Breakdown: Arencibia was called up in late 2010, but Cito Gaston's insistence on playing free agent-to-be John Buck dramatically cut down Arencibia's playing time, which left him as a huge question mark entering 2011. Arencibia started off hot, but has struggled throughout the rest of the year. His 7.1 walk percentage is a pleasant surprise, and ranks 4th among current Blue Jays regulars. Arencibia's biggest problem has been strikeouts, and while they may always been an issue with his uppercut swing, reducing his strikeout rate from its current 28.5% to around 20% would make a huge improvement in his overall batting numbers.

2012 Prospect status: N/A (graduated from prospect status)

#4: CF Anthony Gose

(AA) 509 AB, .253/.349/.415 (.763 OPS), 20 2B, 7 3B, 16 HR, 59 RBI, 70 SB, 62/154 BB/K

2011 Breakdown: Gose spent the entire 2011 season as the starting centerfielder for the prospect-rich New Hampshire Fishers Cats ball club. While strikeouts were still an issue, his 10.6% walk rate and 70/85 (82.4%) stolen base numbers give hope that he could hit near the top of a major league lineup at some point in the future. The batting numbers remained near his career averages -- subpar, but he did see an unexpected spike in his power numbers, more than doubling his previous career high in home runs. Some have attributed this to a short right field porch in his home stadium, however he hit 7 of his 16 home runs on the road. Additionally, many reports of his home park home runs have described them as bombs.

2012 Prospect status: Rising

#6: C Travis d'Arnaud

(AA) 424 AB, .311/.371/.542 (.914 OPS), 33 2B, 1 3B, 21 HR, 78 RBI, 4 SB, 33/100 BB/K

2011 Breakdown: When considering position, d'Arnaud had perhaps the best overall season by any Toronto hitting prospect in 2011. d'Arnaud had always been known as a player with all the tools to be a great catcher, but the numbers had never lived up to the hype. That all came to an end in 2011. d'Arnaud stayed healthy for nearly the entire season, and put together a batting line deserving of the Eastern League MVP award. d'Arnaud has shot up prospects list during the year, and is now arguably the top catching prospect in all of baseball (most experts are split on d'Arnaud and Devin Mesoraco of the Reds). With the graduation of Toronto's top three prospects, d'Arnaud has a legitimate chance to bear the title of Toronto's number one minor leaguer.

2012 Prospect status: Rising

#8: C Carlos Perez

(A) 383 AB, .256/.320/.355 (.675 OPS), 17 2B, 6 3B, 3 HR, 41 RBI, 6 SB, 37/74 BB/K

2011 Breakdown: Carlos Perez was a huge disappointment in 2011. He had shown all of the tools you could want from a catcher in his first three professional seasons, but that did not remain true this year. With a young player like Perez, the biggest hope is that he can translate those tools from short-season ball to full-year ball. The reason for Perez' drop-off in production is impossible to know without being around the team all year, but one can only hope it's fatigue related, not ability related. 2012 will be a huge test for Perez to re-establish himself, but at this point some of his prospect shine has worn off.

2012 Prospect status: Diminishing

#11: CF Jake Marisnick

(A) 462 AB, .320/.392/.496 (.888 OPS), 27 2B, 6 3B, 14 HR, 77 RBI, 37 SB, 43/91 BB/K

2011 Breakdown: Much like d'Arnaud, Marisnick took the huge step of translating tools into legitimate production. Marisnick has always been known as an athlete and a guy "who looks good in a uniform", but he became a baseball player in 2011. Recently named one of Kevin Goldstein's 10 most interesting prospect stories of the year, he mentions how Marisnick is one of the few players you can call a true 5-tool talent without looking like an idiot. In addition to posting an awesome batting line, Marisnick racked up the cumulative stats all year, totalling 47 extra base hits and 37 stolen bases. Perhaps the most impressive aspect of Marisnick's season was his ability to avoid slumps. In his worst month of the year, May, he still managed a respectable .713 OPS. He had an .800+ OPS in the other four full months.

2012 Prospect status: Rising

#12: SS Adeiny Hechavarria

(AAA) 108 AB, .389/.431/.537 (.968 OPS), 6 2B, 2 3B, 2 HR, 11 RBI, 1 SB, 8/21 BB/K
(AA) 464 AB, .235/.275/.347 (.622 OPS), 22 2B, 6 3B, 6 HR, 46 RBI, 19 SB, 25/78 BB/K

2011 Breakdown: A lot was expected from Hechavarria, and for the most part he failed to deliver. After hitting .273/.305/.360 in New Hampshire in 2010 after a midseason callup, it was hoped Hech could match or even exceed those numbers in his second go around with the Fisher Cats. The opposite happened. Hechavarria's batting line plummeted to .235/.275/.347 in 2011. Despite this, he was promoted to Las Vegas late in the year to work with hitting coach Chad Mottola. He did have a strong month with the 51's, but it's exactly that, a month. If Hechavarria wants to re-establish his prospect status, he'll need to show something with the bat in 2012, and string together those strong months into something tangible.

2012 Prospect status: Diminishing

#13: LF Eric Thames

(MLB) 304 AB, .263/.311/.457 (.768 OPS), 21 2B, 4 3B, 10 HR, 32 RBI, 2 SB, 18/73 BB/K
(AAA) 210 AB, .352/.423/.610 (1.033 OPS), 25 2B, 4 2B, 7 HR, 45 RBI, 5 SB, 23/41 BB/K

2011 Breakdown: Like Lawrie, Thames split the year between Las Vegas and Toronto. However, unlike Brett Lawrie, Thames has struggled at times to make the adjustment to the more talented pitching. Despite never posting a walk rate below 8.9% in his minor league career, Thames is walking in only 5.5% of his plate appearances while striking out in 22.2% of his appearances -- not a great combination. While the power Thames has displayed has been impressive (his ISO of .194 is currently 4th among the Blue Jays starters), and his 22.7% line drive rate equally so, it's hard to project Thames as anything more than a .260-.270 hitter in the major leagues. Thames stole Travis Snider's left field job in the summer, and it's likely only one of the two will make the squad out of Spring Training. It should be an interesting battle to watch.

2012 Prospect status: N/A (graduated from prospect status)

Thursday, August 4, 2011

#1: 3B Brett Lawrie

Name: Brett Lawrie
Position: Third Base
Acquired: Trade with Milwaukee in December 2010 (drafted 1st round, 2008)
Opening Day age: 21
Height/weight: 6'0", 215 lbs
Best/worst tool: Bat/fielding

Scouting Report:

Lawrie was drafted in June 2008, and at the time the Milwaukee Brewers announced their draftee as a catcher. Since then, he has moved from catcher to second base, and then second base to third base. A lot of these positional switches are due to Lawrie's glove, which is below average. His arm is strong, which is the reason why many scouts and analysts feel Lawrie may eventually end up as a corner outfielder. Additionally, Keith Law has described Lawrie as being an "intense, aggressive, one-speed player ... lack of finesse in his game is part of what holds him back as an infielder." Lawrie is an excellent hitter, however, as his upper body strength generates a lot of bat speed. His power is another plus tool, and while he may never be a 30 home run hitter, he should rack of doubles and triples as well as his 20+ home runs due to his line drive approach. Speed is another key aspect of Lawrie's game, as he combines natural athleticism with intelligent base running to rack up a lot of stolen bases as well as to turn singles into doubles, and doubles into triples.

Aside from his glove, Lawrie's biggest flaw may be his personality, though as outsiders looking in, it's difficult to analyze the situation. Most notably, Lawrie turned down an Arizona Fall League assignment from the Brewers. The Blue Jays are hoping any "character concerns" associated with Lawrie might diminish as he matures and plays at home in Toronto.

2010 Stats: .285/.346/.451 (.797 OPS), 36 2B, 16 3B, 8 HR, 63 RBI, 30 SB, 47/118 BB/K

2010 Analysis:

As a 20 year old, Lawrie spent the 2010 season with Milwaukee's Double-A affiliate, and while he struggled in the field as a second baseman, his bat met the match of Southern League pitchers. He fell short of his 2009 season total of 13 home runs, knocking only 8, but his 52 other extra base hits speak to the power potential hidden in his bat. His triple slash line is fantastic for an infielder in his age/level situation, and while he did rack up the strikeouts, his 47 walks represent his solid plate approach. His 30 stolen bases were a nice complement to his power.

2011 Stats: .353/.415/.661 (1.076 OPS), 24 2B, 6 3B, 18 HR, 61 RBI, 13 SB, 26/53 BB/K

2011 Analysis:

In his first year with Toronto, the 21 year old Lawrie was assigned to Triple-A Las Vegas. Lawrie's offensive skills combined with the launching pad that is Cashman Field to create the incredible statistics above. The 18 home runs in a half season of at-bats does not indicate that Lawrie has 36 HR potential, it's simply the PCL and park effects making a solid power hitter look like a true slugger. Despite the above information, Lawrie still increased his power numbers across the board and kept his walk rate roughly the same (7.7% in '10, 8.0% in '11) while reducing his strikeout rate from 19.4% to 16.0%.

Future outlook:

Brett Lawrie was promoted to Toronto after today's game in Tampa Bay, and will take over third base duties immediately (with Jose Bautista returning to right field). While he may not be at that position 5 years down the line, Lawrie appears to have placed his stake there for the remainder of 2011 as well as for at least 2012. After that, the Blue Jays may re-evaluate Lawrie's defensive position, depending upon how much success he had at the hot corner. While it is never wise to say a player is done with the minor leagues, Lawrie has proven all he needs to with the bat, and infield coach Brian Butterfield can offer more to Brett Lawrie defensively than the minor league coaches ever could.

Perfect world projection: All Star MLB 3B, potential .300/20/20 hitter.

Worst case scenario: 2nd division MLB OF/DH.

Most likely outcome: 1st division MLB 3B/OF, possible All Star appearances during prime years.