2012 Top Prospects #4: Daniel Norris

Name: Daniel Norris
Position: Left-handed Pitcher
Acquired: 2nd round (2011)
Opening Day age: 18
Height/weight: 6’2”/180 lbs
Best/worst tool: Fastball/mechanics
Risk factor: High
ETA: 2015

Scouting Report

If he can put all the pieces together, Norris has the tools to be one of the best starters in the American League. The biggest problem to this point in his career has been consistency. His velocity, command, and mechanics have all succumb to his inconsistencies at some point, and to become a major league pitcher he’ll need to smooth out those flaws. It’s certainly not due to a lack of passion or work ethic, as Norris has exceptional makeup and maturity beyond his years. The key to unlocking his potential could be professional coaching with a steady plan, as Norris has all the tools you could want from a left-handed starter. He has a long, loose, physical, and projectable body, and as a former football player he has plenty of athleticism. His fastball has at least plus potential with excellent command and heavy run and sink, but his velocity varies greatly from inning to inning and start to start. On the low end Norris will sit 90-92 mph, touching 94 mph. On the high end, he sits 93-96 mph –- touching even higher –- making scouts drool at the potential hidden in his arm. He backs up the fastball with a mid-to-upper 70’s curveball that has shown plus potential. Its effectiveness is directly linked to his mechanics, as when his delivery is smooth he snaps them off with tight spin and late break, but the pitch begins to loop when he can’t find his timing or release point. Norris also throws a low 80’s straight changeup that is very advanced for an 18 year old, and could be an above average to fringe-plus pitch in a few years. Rounding out the arsenal is a mid 80’s slider. It shows hard tilt when he’s throwing it well, but he has issues with it slowing down and becoming more of a slurve. The pitch can sometimes take away from the effectiveness of his curveball, and it’s possible he’ll squeeze the slider out of his sequencing as he develops. Norris works from the 3/4 arm slot and has excellent arm action, though there is some effort to his delivery that has caused concern. The complexity of his windup is a big contributor to his lack of consistent command, so it’s possible that coaching him into a more sound delivery could alleviate his two biggest problems.


2011 Statistics and Analysis

8-2, 68.1 IP, 17 ER, 123 K, 2.24 ERA, 16.20 K/9

While he didn’t pitch in affiliated ball as a deadline signee, the statistics from Norris’ senior year at Science Hill High School were available, so we actually have something to look at in this section. His entire collection of statistics couldn’t be found, so we’re missing some useful barometers like hits allowed, walks, and WHIP, but the above numbers do paint a rather attractive picture of the kind of pitcher Daniel Norris is. Striking out one batter per inning (or a 9.00 K/9) is very impressive. Norris nearly doubled that, and while high school numbers are typically extreme, 16.20 K/9 is something you only see when you play single player in MLB: The Show and set your opponents contact rate to 0. We’re also not talking about a second or third tier baseball state, as Norris played in Tennessee, one of the baseball hotbeds in the United States. It’s quickly obvious why Norris was rated by Baseball America as the number one left handed high school pitcher in his draft class, and why Blue Jays fans are very excited about the system’s number one pitching prospect.

Expected 2012 Assignment: Low-A Vancouver

Future Outlook

Norris has shown an eagerness to get on the field, but Toronto might try and curb some of that enthusiasm to protect their asset. After throwing 68 innings in his senior year, Norris should be more than capable of a full season assignment. It would be fascinating for Blue Jays fans, as if that were the case, Norris would join fellow top-10 prospects Noah Syndergaard, Justin Nicolino, and Aaron Sanchez in the Single-A Lansing rotation. Should Toronto choose to take a more cautious approach, he’d be assigned to Low-A Vancouver in the Northwest League. Under that circumstance, Norris wouldn’t see full season ball and start compiling 100+ inning seasons until 2013. As a high school arm who has yet to throw a professional pitch, projecting his major league debut is silly and a bit ridiculous, as he could feasibly debut anytime between 2014 and 2016, depending upon health, development, and minor league success. To take the cowards way out, I’ll split the difference and suggest 2015.

Perfect World Projection: Top of the rotation starter, future All Star.

2012 Top Prospects #5: Noah Syndergaard

Name: Noah Syndergaard
Position: Right-handed Pitcher
Acquired: 1st round (2010)
Opening Day age: 19
Height/weight: 6’5”/200 lbs
Best/worst tool: Fastball/command
Risk factor: High
ETA: 2014

Scouting Report

While failing to agree to terms with a top draft pick is never a good thing for a franchise, the silver lining in losing James Paxton is that Toronto used its compensatory pick to select Noah Syndergaard. He has quickly torn down the project label placed upon him, with his arsenal showing drastic improvements across the board. He has the best fastball in the system with plus-plus potential. His four-seamer sits 94-95 mph and consistently touches 98 mph. There were rumors of a 102 mph pitch, but that was simply the case of a juiced gun. Syndergaard also throws a two-seamer that, while a few miles-per-hour slower, has much better movement. The pitch runs in on the hands of right handed batters, and he uses it to induce weak contact. He throws both pitches with roughly the same frequency, perhaps slightly favoring the four-seamer. Syndergaard is armed with two offspeed pitches. He flashes plus with a 77-80 mph power curveball, but lacks consistency with the pitch. It has 12-to-6 break with nice shape, and is used predominantly with two strikes as a swing-and-miss pitch. His circle changeup is a step behind, but could be at least an above average offering down the road. The pitch sits in the mid 80’s and has sharp armside movement. He has good arm speed on the pitch and typically keeps a nice velocity separation from his fastball, though he can get in trouble when the change starts touching the upper 80’s. Syndergaard is more of a control pitcher than a command pitcher at this point, as he can get his pitches in the strikezone but not always exactly where he wants them. His 6’5”, 200 lbs frame is perfect for handling his power arsenal, and his height helps create a downward plane on his pitches. His delivery is loose, and he maintains sound mechanics through the duration of his starts. It’s often overlooked, but Syndergaard has an excellent mound presence and work ethic, always competing and trying to make himself better.

2011 Statistics and Analysis

13 games (11 starts), 59 IP, 46 H, 12 ER, 1 HR, 18 BB, 68 K
5-2, 1.83 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 10.37 K/9, 3.77 K/BB, 1.30 GO/AO

Syndergaard opened the year with Bluefield in the Appalachian League and dominated for 7 games (5 starts). He was nearly unhittable, giving up only 23 hits in 32 innings (.198 BAA) while striking out 37 batters (10.41 K/9). He earned a promotion to Vancouver in late July where he continued his success across 4 Low-A starts. The trends from Bluefield continued, as Syndergaard held hitters to a .221 BAA with 11.00 K/9. He joined fellow top prospect Justin Nicolino in Single-A Lansing in late August, where he made two more impressive starts. The overall 2011 numbers were very impressive, but it will be interesting to see if he can maintain such dominant rates facing better competition (the Midwest League) with a full season workload.

Expected 2012 Assignment: Single-A Lansing

Future Outlook

Syndergaard performed extremely well, but expectations, at least in the short term, need to be tempered. He pitched only 59 innings in 2011, so anything beyond 100 innings could be a bit reckless on the organizations part. He’ll start his season with Lansing, the question is whether or not he’ll be in the Opening Day rotation, or whether he’ll begin in May in order to ensure he pitches the entire year, possibly into the playoffs. If he continues his success from 2011 into this season, it’s very possible he’ll join High-A Dunedin later in the summer. Should he continue to develop his offspeed pitches as hoped, Syndergaard could be see the Toronto Blue Jays rotation in mid-to-late 2014, and should be ready to contribute 180-200 innings to the big club in 2015 as a 22 year old.

Perfect World Projection: Top of the rotation starter, possible All Star appearances and Cy Young contention during his prime years.

2012 Top Prospects #6: Drew Hutchison

Name: Drew Hutchison
Position: Right-handed Pitcher
Acquired: 15th round (2009)
Opening Day age: 21
Height/weight: 6’2”/165 lbs
Best/worst tool: Command/durability
Risk factor: Low
ETA: 2012

Scouting Report

Thanks to his excellent command, Hutchison is often mislabeled as a control or finesse pitcher. In reality, that’s not the case. He certainly has great command of his three pitch repertoire, but his stuff is more than strong enough to give him mid rotation potential. The three pitch description isn’t entirely accurate, as Hutchison actually throws two fastballs. The better offering is his two-seamer, which shows excellent armside movement while sitting around 90 mph. In addition to the down-and-away sink, he also cuts the pitch to bust in on the hands of left handed batters. His four-seamer clocks higher, sitting 90-93 mph and touching 94-95 mph, but can flatten out and become very hittable if he leaves it up and over the plate. The pitches show above average and average potential, respectively, though both could improve if he bulks up his frame and adds velocity. Hutchison’s best pitch is his plus circle changeup. He has excellent arm speed on the pitch, and it has nice velocity separation from his two fastballs, sitting in the low 80’s. Similar to his two-seamer, the change has down and away armside movement. Rounding out Hutchison’s arsenal is an above average slider that flashes plus potential but lacks consistency. When it’s on, the pitch has good two plane movement and tilt, clocking in the mid 80’s. When it’s off, it gets slurvy and is closer to 80 mph. Hutchison is an intelligent pitcher who uses good sequencing and location to keep the opposition unbalanced. He works with a deceptive delivery from a low 3/4 arm slot that he repeats well. He stays closed as he readies himself, and follows through with cross body arm action that has caused concerns about his long term durability. Hutchison is athletic with a strong lower half, but looks bigger than his listed weight of 165 lbs. There’s still room to add muscle, but he’s more polished than projectable at this point.

2011 Statistics and Analysis

28 games (27 starts), 149.1 IP, 120 H, 42 ER, 4 HR, 35 BB, 171 K
14-5, 2.53 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 10.31 K/9, 4.89 K/BB, 1.33 GO/AO

An overslot signee in the 2009 draft, Hutchison finally made his full season debut after a dominant 2010 season in short season ball. The results spoke for themselves. Showing more advanced development than anyone had expected, Hutchison split the year across three different levels –- Single-A Lansing, High-A Dunedin, and Double-A New Hampshire. What makes his season even more fascinating is that, despite facing increasingly skilled competition, he lost absolutely nothing statistically. It could even be argued that he improved as he ascended the ranks of the farm system. Hutchison’s season was highlighted by a personal streak of six-plus consecutive scoreless starts that began with Lansing and concluded after his promotion to Dunedin. Hutchison’s 171 strikeouts were 1st amongst Blue Jays prospects, and had he not been shut down due to an inning limit, he could have ranked among the leaders of the entire minor leagues.

Expected 2012 Assignment: Double-A New Hampshire

Future Outlook

After putting together such a hugely successful 2011 season, many people feel Hutchison is big league ready. In short, he’s not. Hutchison pitched only 15 innings across 3 starts for Double-A, and there is still a lot he could learn at the minor league level. Towards the end of the season as he approached his inning limit, Hutchison was being held to quick 5 inning starts. He was dominant, no doubt, but part of being a starting pitcher is being able to go seven-plus innings with regularity. Beyond just the added toll of throwing 30-40 extra pitches, hitters are seeing you for a third time in the latter innings, and they’ll have made adjustments. Hutchison will need to learn to make his own adjustments, as major league hitters learn quickly. While an early season debut is almost out of the question, July or August would be a good timeline for Hutchison’s debut, as Toronto is likely to be creating some roster space around the trade deadline.

Perfect World Projection: Exceptional mid rotation starter.