Blue Jays Prospect Hot Sheet: Aug 19-28

As I mentioned in the last edition, Hypocritical Sports Fan will be running a regular Blue Jays Prospect Hot Sheet. The list is a representation of the hottest 5 or so players in the Blue Jays farm system over a 10 day period, with the player pool consisting of my personal Top 40 prospect list.

This edition will be for the games spanning from (and including) August 19th to August 28th.

1. CF Jacob Anderson, GCL Blue Jays
.500/.551/.692 (1.243 OPS), 2 2B, 1 HR, 4 RBI, 1 SB, 3/4 BB/K

Anderson, the first positional player drafted by Toronto this past June, has seen his professional career get off to a scorching start. As a late signee, Anderson has only played 9 games in the Gulf Coast League so far this year, but is already showing he could be ready for a Bluefield or Vancouver assignment to begin next year. The above stat line was accumulated in only 7 games (6 of which were multi-hit efforts), which makes Anderson taking the #1 spot even more impressive. Jacob Anderson is a big guy at 6'4", and given his age (he won't turn 19 until late November) it's likely he will move to a corner outfield position down the road as he continues to mature physically. Anderson even played some first base for his highschool team because of his size and the fact they were so rich in atheltic outfielders. Regardless, Toronto will likely give him every opportunity to prove he can stay in centerfield as his value is much higher there.

2. RHP Drew Hutchison, Double-A New Hampshire
2-0, 10 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 3 BB, 13 K

Coming into the season I had ranked Hutchison as my #14 prospect in the system and thought myself rather bold in doing so. Since then, Hutch has torn the minor leagues apart, moving all the way from Single-A Lansing up to Double-A New Hampshire. Hutchison made two starts from August 19th to 28th, the first being his last with Dunedin, and the second being his debut with New Hampshire. Unsurprisingly, Hutchison met the challenge and excelled, posting two impressive pitching lines that total the above numbers. Hutch snuck into some midseason Top-50 prospect lists, and given his impressive second half numbers, I expect his name will pepper the top half of Top-100 lists this winter. Drew has established himself as one of Toronto's top-5 prospects entering 2012.

3. CF Jake Marisnick, Single-A Lansing
.378/.439/.595 (1.034 OPS), 5 2B, 1 HR, 5 RBI, 3 SB, 3/4 BB/K

Perhaps Toronto's most well rounded positional prospect, Jake Marisnick had one of those weeks. In his 9 games, Marisnick had multiple hits 6 times and atleast 1 extra base hit or stolen base 6 times. His best game during this time frame was August 26th, in which he went 3 for 4 with 2 doubles, 1 home run, and 2 runs scored. Along with the aformentioned Drew Hutchison, Marisnick has been one of Toronto's biggest stories in the minor leagues this year. Now up to a .323/.396/.500 (.896), 26 2B, 6 3B, 13 HR, 76 RBI, 35 SB, 43/84 BB/K line on the year, the 20 year old Marisnick has established himself as a blue chip prospect and should meet the 2012 challenge of Dunedin with a lot of confidence.

4. RHP Chad Jenkins, Double-A New Hampshire
0-2, 13.2 IP, 8 H, 5 ER, 0 BB, 14 K

While the 0-2 record and 3.29 ERA don't seem worthy of a hot sheet, it's Jenkins' other numbers that show how dominant he was in late August. Jenkins held hitters to a sub-.200 batting average and walked no one, good for an impressive 0.59 WHIP. After posting rather mediocre numbers through his first two Double-A months (June and July), Jenkins came on strong in August with a 3.06 ERA, 0.93 WHIP, 3.71 K/BB, and 7.24 K/9. While he lacks the upside of many of Toronto's other pitching prospects, Jenkins has gotten hot at the right time, inspiring some confidence from the front office, which should help him achieve his big league dreams at some point in 2012.

5. CF Anthony Gose, Double-A New Hampshire
.250/.386/.528 (.914 OPS), 2 2B, 1 3B, 2 HR, 5 RBI, 11 SB, 6/10 BB/K

To say that Anthony Gose has been on a base stealing tear would be an understatement. From August 19th to 28th, Gose went 11/11, bringing his cumulative August total to 17/17. What has been equally impressive has been Gose's power development, as his 5 extra base hits during this time period bring him up to 11 for the month (5 2B, 1 3B, 5 HR). His biggest problem this year, which is emphasized nicely in this sample, is strikeouts. Gose struck out 10 times during these 10 games, bringing his season total up to 143 strikeouts in 130 games. Despite hitting only .250 here, Gose made his hits count.

6. LF Christopher Hawkins, Rookie-class Bluefield
.424/.500/.545 (1.045 OPS), 4 2B, 0 HR, 8 RBI, 2 SB, 6/6 BB/K

Toronto's outfield depth shouldn't be questioned any time soon. Hawkins is the 4th outfielder to make this hot sheet, and is the first prospect to appear on consecutive lists. Hawkins made the sheet once again through consistency, as he had at least a hit in 9 of his 10 games. The only game in which he did not record a hit was a pinch hitting appearance, where he walked. Amazingly, in his 9 starts, he reached base two or more times in every game. While he hasn't shown the extra base power that his hot list counterparts have, Hawkins has found continued success this year by taking what he is given and knocking the ball around the park. If "clutch" could be measured, Hawkins' 1.140 OPS with runners on and 1.033 OPS with runners in scoring position might suggest he has a some in him.

The Enigma that is Brandon Morrow

On December 16th, 2009, the Blue Jays made a franchise changing decision by dealing Roy Halladay to the Philadelphia Phillies. During the negotiations, the Phillies were attempting to trade their then-ace, Cliff Lee, and the Mariners were showing a lot of interest. As news of the trade negotiations slowly leaked, fans heard countless names and hypothetical exchanges tossed in the air by media outlets, including a possible three-way trade between Toronto, Philadelphia, and Seattle, where Halladay would go to the Phillies, Lee would go to the Mariners, and a combination of Philadelphia and Seattle prospects would come to Toronto. It made sense at the time, given Philadelphia GM Ruben Amaro Jr's reluctance to include Kyle Drabek in the deal. Perhaps the Blue Jays would receive their future ace from Seattle.

The messageboards erupted in a fury of trade proposals, with names such as Michael Saunders, Carlos Triunfel, and that guy Brandon Morrow being imagined in Blue Jays uniforms. A few hours later, the trade had been completed, and Seattle and Toronto made no exchanges. The Blue Jays sent Halladay to the Phillies for a prospect package, and the Phillies sent Lee to the Mariners in exchange for a prospect package to resupply their minor leagues. While Toronto did not receive any Seattle players in the Halladay trade, Alex Anthopolous and Seattle GM Jack Zduriencik were evidently laying down groundwork on another trade during negotiations. Exactly one week later, Toronto sent flame throwing Hawaiian Brandon League and minor league outfielder Johermyn Chavez to the Mariners for former 5th overall pick Brandon Morrow. While the Roy Halladay deal rightfully garnered a lot of attention, the Brandon Morrow trade could prove to be just as impactful, making December 2009 perhaps the most important month in Blue Jays history over the past 15 years.

When he was with Seattle, to say Brandon Morrow was misused would be an understatement. Despite being drafted in June 2006, Morrow debuted in the major leagues in April 2007 -- only 10 months later -- with a grand total of 16 minor league innings under his belt. The Mariners chose to use him as a reliever to begin his career, and while the 4.12 ERA looks decent for a rookie, his 1.67 WHIP and 5.12 xFIP suggest he was lucky to maintain that acceptable ERA.

In 2008, his second full year since being drafted, the chaos began, with Morrow splitting the season between the minor and major leagues. He made 6 relief appearances with Double-A, 5 starts and 1 relief appearance with Triple-A, and 5 starts and 40 relief appearances in Seattle -- totalling 10 starts and 47 relief appearances. The results improved, but walks were still a significant issue for Morrow. In his 95.1 total innings across the three levels, Morrow walked 51 batters, for a sub-par 4.81 BB/9. He finished 24 games for Seattle (10 of which went for saves), which led many to believe Morrow might be the anchor in Seattle's bullpen for years to come.

Morrow's future became even more turbid with the onset of the 2009, as it became clear that Seattle had no idea what to do with their former first round pick. He had performed well as a reliever, but when a 5th overall pick is used on a pitcher, it is expected that they will be a starter in the long-term. Morrow began the year in Seattle, working once again as a fireman in the back of the bullpen. He made 16 relief appearances, 9 of which were to finish a game, 6 of which went for saves. Things went downhill in May, when Morrow pitched to a 10.38 ERA and 2.54 WHIP. Less than half way through the year, the Seattle brain trust flip-flopped on their spring stance, instead deciding it was time for Morrow to develop as a starter. They sent him back down to Triple-A Tacoma to build up a starter's arm strength, where he made 10 starts with mixed results. In late summer, Morrow was promoted back up to Seattle, this time pitching in a rotation that included Felix Hernandez, and Erik Bedard. Morrow flashed his top of the rotation potential during his September callup, particularly in his September 30th start against the division rival Oakland A's. Morrow went 8 shutout innings, allowing only 1 hit and 2 walks while striking out 9. In the winter of 2009, the aformentioned trade was consumated, with Morrow taking his talents to Toronto.

Years down the line, after he has retired, Morrow's time with Seattle may well be considered nothing more than the preface to his true career. From 2006 through the end of 2009, Morrow pitched a grand total of 299.1 innings. For comparison, the Blue Jays current starting rotation includes two other pitchers who, like Morrow, were drafted as college juniors in the first round of their drafts. The first, Ricky Romero, threw 415.2 innings in the minor leagues before finally debuting in Toronto. The second, Brett Cecil, pitched 217.1 innings in the minor leagues before making his debut, and another 93.1 in his first year with Toronto before establishing himself as more than a temp in 2010. Morrow's entire time with Seattle -- both in the minors and majors -- is roughly in the same ballpark as his new rotation mates minor league careers. This is why when Morrow was traded to Toronto and finally given the professional stability that every major league pitcher desires, I thought of him more as a rookie, not the 4th year guy he was in actuality. It was a new team, a new country, a clean slate, and a front office with foresight and direction.

The 2010 season was not an easy one for Morrow. Throughout spring training and the first couple months of the season, he and Blue Jays pitching coach Bruce Walton had to work to undo three years worth of poor coaching. Unsurprinsingly, the in-game results were less than perfect, which caused many of the short sighted members of Toronto's fanbase to declare him a bust and the trade itself a failure. Morrow's season hit its lowest point on a bitingly cold, windy night in Fenway Park on the 10th of May. He recorded only 5 outs while giving up 6 earned runs on 3 hits and 6 walks, causing his season ERA to balloon to 6.69. An observant fan would have noticed that, in nearly every start of the entire first half of the season, Morrow had a slightly different delivery. He and Bruce Walton were constantly tweaking his wind-up, arm slot, and release point in an effort to find something that he would find comfortable but also provide results.

Eventually they settled upon a delivery somewhat reminiscent of AJ Burnett's, which included a short pause and turn of the hips at the peak of his windup. On May 30th, Morrow had an ERA of 6.00. He made 15 starts over the remainder of the year before being shut down due to an inning limit, and saw his ERA drop in 11 of those 15 starts, a marked improvement over the first 2 months of the season. The second half of his season was highlighted by his August 8th start at the Rogers Centre against the visiting Tampa Bay Rays. The Blue Jays won the game 1-0, with Morrow striking out 17 batters on the evening. Tampa's first (and only) hit came in the form of a chopper to the right side of the infield with 2 outs in the 9th inning, which Aaron Hill couldn't lasso. He finished the season with a 4.49 ERA, but his 3.16 FIP, 3.48 xFIP, and 10.95 K/9 showed he had the potential for much, much more.

Expectations were hightened entering Morrow's second year in Toronto, but they were quickly tempered by a bout of soreness in his pitching arm during spring training, an ailment which forced him to shut things down for a few weeks. Much like 2010, this year has been another up and down season for Morrow, but there have been two dramatic improvements over his first year in Toronto. First, the downs this season have been less severe than those he experienced in 2010. While he has struggled on occasion, there has never been any question as to whether or not he belongs in a major league starting rotation. Secondly, the lack of control that has plagued Morrow throughout his career has seen a significant improvement. After posting a combined 5.83 BB/9 in his big league time with Seattle, Morrow lowered his walk rate to 4.06 BB/9 in 2010. He has taken it a step further in 2011, lowering his BB/9 to a very respectable 3.34. His 3.10 FIP and 3.36 xFIP emphasize how well he has pitched overall. When put into context with his 2010 numbers (3.16 FIP, 3.48 xFIP), it is clear that Brandon Morrow has the potential to be a dominant starting pitcher in the major leagues.

While Morrow will receive a pass for 2011, the expectations will be raised once again for the 2012 season. For the first time in far too long, Toronto is on the verge of playoff contention, and 2012 could be the year in which the Blue Jays put their foot in the door. For that to happen, Toronto is going to need consistency from the roster, as well as for key players to finally live up to their potential. While guys like Colby Rasmus, Travis Snider, and Kyle Drabek are on that list, Brandon Morrow is most certainly at the top. After two full years of starting in the major leagues, it will be time for Morrow to show the world what kind of pitcher he is. His FIP numbers over the past two years (3.16, 3.10) are extremely similar to those of his fellow 2006 first round pick and 2-time NL Cy Young award winner Tim Lincecum (3.15, 2.87), which displays the kind of limitless ceiling Brandon Morrow has. With Ricky Romero at his side to lead the Blue Jays rotation for years to come, it is time for Morrow to bring his ERA down to his FIP and xFIP range and break free of the "next AJ Burnett" label that far too many casual Blue Jays fans have laid upon him.

Blue Jays Prospect Hot Sheet: August 9-18

Baseball America has been running a weekly prospect hot sheet for as long as I have had an interest in the minor leagues, and I have always enjoyed reading it and the follow up chat with the writer. The hot sheets have become even more enjoyable to read over the last couple of seasons, as unlike in the pre-Anthopolous years, Blue Jays prospects are making regular appearances on the list this year. Three of Toronto's better prospects; Travis d'Arnaud, Jake Marisnick, and Drew Hutchison, have peppered the hot sheet in their breakout 2011 seasons.

To further raise the exposure of some of Toronto's prospects, I have decided to create a Blue Jays Prospect Hot Sheet that will detail the hottest 5 or so prospects over a 10 day period. While Baseball America uses a 7 day window, I feel 10 days gives a better opportunity to pitchers as most of them will make 2 starts in those 10 days, while the hitters will still get their 8-9 games.

The eligble pool of players will be comprised of my Top 40 Blue Jays prospects, so, for example, 27 year old journeymen minor leaguers who smack 4 home runs in the 10 days will not be considered.

The first Blue Jays Prospect Hot Sheet will be for the 10 days spanning from (and including) August 9th to August 18th.

1. RHP Nestor Molina, Double-A New Hampshire
1-0, 11 IP, 6 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 17 K, 0.81 ERA, 0.64 WHIP

The Venezuela native Nestor Molina made two starts for the Fisher Cats this week -- his first two since being promoted after spending the whole year with the Dunedin Blue Jays. Despite not having overpowering stuff, Molina uses an outstanding changeup and his incredible command to carve up hitters in a way that chefs would be envious of. Molina's week was powered by his Thursday start, possibly his best start of the whole season, in which he went 5 innings, allowed only 2 hits, and struck out 9 batters. If not for his strict inning limit, Molina's 9.96 K/9 would put him near the top of the minor league leaderboard in strikeouts. Molina did not rank on my preseason Top 15, but should definitely find a home there after his 2011 season.

2. SS Adeiny Hechavarria, Triple-A Las Vegas
.517/.563/.621 (1.183 OPS), 3 2B, 0 HR, 2 RBI, 3/3 BB/K

Many eyebrows were raised when Hechavarria was promoted to Triple-A after posting a .622 OPS in 111 Double-A games this season. Regardless, Hechavarria answered the call, putting together perhaps the best 7 game stretch of his career. Hechavarria had 2 or more hits in each of his first 6 games in Las Vegas, and just to cap his week off, he threw in three walks. Hechavarria has the glove to play Major League shortstop -- his bat has been the only thing holding him back thus far. This week may have been a combination of luck and the PCL effect, but, just maybe, it is the start of something much bigger for the young Cuban.

3. C Travis d'Arnaud, Double-A New Hampshire
.324/.342/.649 (.991 OPS), 1 2B, 1 3B, 3 HR, 7 RBI, 1/10 BB/K

While this wasn't d'Arnaud's best overall stretch of the season, it's hard to argue with the power production in such a short period of time. His double and three bombs this week bring his season totals to 31 and 18 respectively, and he even tossed in a triple for good measure. The ten strikeouts are certainly a black spot on an otherwise outstanding week, but when you are making such powerful contact as d'Arnaud did here, your tendency may temporarily shift to swing now, take later. With no apparent September callup in sight, d'Arnaud should look to finish the last few weeks of his season with New Hampshire strong, and further solidify himself as one of the Blue Jays top 2 or 3 prospects entering next year.

4. LF Christopher Hawkins, Rookie-class Bluefield
.379/.486/.483 (.969 OPS), 3 2B, 0 HR, 10 RBI, 1 SB, 6/6 BB/K

While d'Arnaud displayed how power can generate a strong line, Christopher Hawkins was highly productive by simply taking what pitchers gave him. Despite seeing only 3 of his 11 hits go for extra bases, Hawkins still managed to drive in 10 runs, and when pitchers didn't throw him what he wanted, he happily took the walk. The 2010 3rd round pick has had a strong year overall, and was recently named as one of the better left field prospects in the game in Jason Parks's (Baseball Prospectus) left field positional primer. Hawkins has accomplished all of this despite being drafted as an infielder and making the conversion to the outfield.

5. RF Moises Sierra, Double-A New Hampshire
.367/.441/.600 (1.041 OPS), 1 2B, 2 HR, 3 RBI, 1 SB, 4/5 BB/K

Moises Sierra is the third Fisher Cat to make the list, which shouldn't be too surprising given New Hampshire's 6-4 record in their drive for the post season during this statistical timeframe. While he isn't a top prospect by any means, Sierra is a decent prospect who, despite being only 22 years old, often goes overlooked. Sierra has decent power and a sound approach at the plate, which is picturized nicely in this sample size. Sierra had two 3-hit games in mid-August, which were the meat behind his numbers.

In a bit of a blast from the past, Travis Snider has taken his demotion to Triple-A very seriously. Since arriving in Las Vegas on the 8th, he has hit .378/.439/.568 (1.007 OPS) with a double, 2 HR, 13 RBI, 5 SB, and a 4/9 BB/K ratio in 9 games. The Lunch Box Hero graduated from prospect status years ago, making him ineligible to be ranked on the list, but as long as he keeps putting together stretches like this, his performance will be shared.

Draft Deadline Eve

Major League Baseball's deadline for amateur draftees to sign professional contracts is midnight eastern time, which is in less than 6 hours. Toronto General Manager Alex Anthopolous likely has an extremely busy evening ahead of himself, as at the time of this paragraph being written, he has only signed a reported 31 of his 55 draftees. Most notably lacking from those 31 are the Blue Jays three big amateur pitchers -- Tyler Beede (1st round, 21st overall), Kevin Comer (1st Supplemental round, 57th overall), and Daniel Norris (2nd round, 74th overall).

The three draft picks have a lot in common:

1. They are all highschool pitchers
2. They all have a boatload of potential (middle to top of the rotation starters)
3. They all have serious commitments to big name colleges (Beede and Comer to Vanderbilt, Norris to Clemson)
4. They all have expensive demands (which is tied into the three previous points)

Due to Major League Baseball's policy of refusing to approve contracts that involve above slot signing bonuses until the day of the deadline, minimal negotiations occur between top talents and their prospective teams until very close to, or on, August 15th. Teams typically have a strong idea of what a players financial demands are well before the June draft, and as they are the only team the player can negotiate with, discussions between the team and the "player's representative" take a short amount of time. The team will make an offer and the player will respond. A small amount of back and forth will occur, before eventually the team will make a "take it or go to college" offer, likely very close to midnight, at which point the player must make a decision on his future.

The reported demands of the Blue Jays three prized highschool draftees have been making their way through baseball's front offices since the spring, and, due to the power of the internet and Baseball America, Baseball Prospectus, ESPN, and other news outlets, have made their way into the knowledge banks of the general public. Tyler Beede, Toronto's first round pick, has been reported to be seeking 3M in order to pass up his college commitment to Vanderbilt. His potential Commodore teammate, Kevin Comer, is reportedly seeking 2M. Daniel Norris, the last of the three drafted but the highest of the three on most draft boards, has reportedly demanded 3.5-4M to skip out on his Clemson commitment. In total, the three are demanding that Toronto forks over upwards of 9M.

Whether or not they are worth that sort of money is certainly up for debate, but I expect Toronto to submit strong offers to each of the three, and hope atleast two of them sign. In terms of public relations, I expect the front office would like to avoid a repeat of the 2009 draft, in which Toronto failed to sign 3 of their top 4 draftees, one of whom (James Paxton) is now soaring up prospect rankings as a member of the Seattle Mariners organization.

Below are scouting reports on Tyler Beede and Daniel Norris, from Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com's pre-draft Top 50 list.

RHP Tyler Beede, 6'4", 200 lbs

There might not be a high school pitcher with better mechanics than this Massachusetts product. The right-hander has a clean and effortless delivery, and the ball comes out of his hand really well. Beede throws his fastball 89-93 mph, sitting comfortably at 91-92 mph, with good late life. He's got a nasty hard breaking ball, which is kind of between a curve and a slider, with the shorter break of a slider, but with the depth that looks more like a curve. He's also got good feel for a changeup, and he's got above-average command of all three pitches. He pitches now like an advanced college arm, something it might be difficult to sign him away from doing at Vanderbilt next year.

LHP Daniel Norris, 6'2", 180 lbs

With all the hard-throwing right-handers in this Draft class, it's easy to forget about the high school lefties. Norris might be the best of the lot. The Tennessee prepster has plenty of arm strength in his own right, and it's from the left side, always an exciting combination. His fastball is a plus for a southpaw -- he'll sit around 92 mph but has a little extra he can reach back for. He commands his fastball very well. His curve can be inconsistent, but it should be a plus pitch with hard bite to it. He'll also throw an average changeup, though he obviously doesn't need it much at the high school level. He gets high marks for his mound presence and makeup. There are some concerns with some mechanical flaws in his delivery and his ceiling may be as a No. 3 starter, but that's certainly not nothing and it's enough to get him off the board in the first round.

Two 2010 Draftees making their mark

The 2010 draft may go down as one of the better drafts in Blue Jays history and, unsurprisingly, it was Anthopolous' first at the helm. The Blue Jays had 11 picks in the first 5 rounds, and managed to successfully sign all 11 players. Three of those players -- McGuire, Sanchez, and Wojciechowski, made my Blue Jays Top 15 prospects list, while another (Marcus Knecht) has gained a lot of national publicity due to his Canadian roots.

Despite being drafted early (38th and 80th overall respectively), Noah Syndergaard and Justin Nicolino have flown under the prospect radar. Both players signed for around $600,000 USD, which is roughly slot for Syndergaard, but overslot for Nicolino. With MLB's useless policy of holding back overslot deal in an attempt to lower the market, Syndergaard was able to debut in late 2010, while Nicolino missed an opportunity to pitch in his new organization.

The right handed Syndergaard was seen by many as a safety pick, after Toronto's first two draft picks were used on Deck McGuire and Aaron Sanchez, both of whom were known to be seeking overslot money. Given that he is a high school pitcher I'm not sure how anyone could consider him a "safe" pick, but regardless the Blue Jays were happy to see him fall into their laps at 38, and even happier that he signed early and was able to get on the field.

Despite signing early, Syndergaard made only 5 starts (13.1 IP) for the Blue Jays Gulf Coast affilate in an effort to control his workload in his first year with the organization.

Noah is a big kid, standing 6 foot 5 and weighing 200 lbs. With such a long, lean frame, it is believed that as he matures he will be capable of adding muscle mass and could see a spike in fastball velocity. He throws his 4-seamer in the low 90's, but is already capable of touching 94-95 mph. As he is in such a transitional phase physically, it's fun to speculate that he could see his fastball start sitting 92-94 mph and touching 96-97 mph a few years down the road, but, at the same time, pitching prospects are so unpredictable that it's just as possible his fastball has capped out at above average. In addition to his 4-seamer, he throws a decent curveball that has shown plus potential. Strong coaching could really making it a great pitch. As with most highschool arms, Syndergaard worked primarily with those two pitches, but has also worked in a mediocre changeup that is a work in progress. He hasn't shown a ton of feel for it yet, so it would be difficult to give it anything above average potential. Syndergaard is mentally strong as well, as entering his draft year he was considered a "pop-up prospect" -- a potential draftee who shot up draft charts in the spring. His agent mentioned in an interview with Jays Journal that the improvements which resulted in his draft stock skyrocketing were through hard work and an outstanding work ethic on Noah's part.

In his first full season with the Blue Jays, Syndergaard has split the year between Bluefield (Rookie League) and Vancouver (Short season Low-A). He has posted strong numbers, giving up only 32 hits and 7 earned runs in 41 innings. Just as impressively, he has struck out 49 batters and walked only 14. These numbers translate to a 1.54 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 3.50 K/BB, 10.76 K/9, and .211 BAA -- all of which are outstanding.

Despite being their 7th selection, the left handed Nicolino was taken in the 2nd round and, much like Syndergaard, was overshadowed by the bigger names in the top of Toronto's draft. As the 4th highschool pitcher drafted by the Blue Jays in 2010, Nicolino was a continuation of General Manager Alex Anthopolous' apparent goal of targeting high upside talent, regardless of the risk involved. As mentioned, Nicolino's overslot signing bonus was held back by Bud Selig and the Commissioners Office, making 2010 a lost year professionally.

Unlike Syndergaard, Justin Nicolino has an extremely wirey frame, standing 6 foot 3 and weighing only 160 lbs. Shockingly, that weight is a dramatic improvement upon his weight of 145 lbs in his highschool years, during which he he had trouble sitting in the mid 80's. Now slightly heavier, Nicholino works his fastball between 88 and 92 mph, and has the ability to paint the bottom corners. Nicolino features two offspeed pitches -- a high 70's changeup and a low 70's curveball. Unlike many highschool pitchers, Nicolino throws both offspeed pitches frequently, which is likely a big factor in his early professional success. His arm action is a little inconsistent between his fastball and changeup, but the delivery is relatively smooth for a pitcher of his age and development stage. Nicolino's greatest strengths may be his command and pitching IQ, both of which he developed while working with a below average repetoire. As his arsenal continues to improve while he matures physically, those tools should further accentuate his pure stuff, and may allow him to pitch above his natural ability.

Nicolino was assigned to short season Low-A, and he has been nothing short of dominant. In his 45 innings of work, he has allowed only 23 hits and 6 earned runs. He has walked 11, and struck out an outstanding 58 -- good for a 1.20 ERA, 0.76 WHIP, 5.27 K/BB, 11.60 K/9, and .151 BAA. These numbers are not floated simply by a strong outing or two either, Nicolino has been consistently dominant. In 6 of his 10 games, he allowed 1 or fewer hits. In 8 of his 10 starts, he allowed 1 or fewer walks. In 7 of his 10 starters, he struck out 5 batters or more (which is particularly impressive given his game limit of 5 innings per start). All of this translates into one of the most dominant stretches by any pitcher in the Blue Jays farm system in recent memory.

While both pitchers are years away from sniffing the Toronto rotation, they are most certainly two arms who deserve more attention than they have been getting. Toronto's prospect rankings are going to see a dramatic facelift entering 2012 due to promotions (Lawrie, Drabek, Arencibia), trades (Stewart), struggles (Perez, Wojciechowski) and surges (d'Arnaud, Alvarez, Marisnick, Hutchison, etc), which could allow prospects like Syndergaard and Nicolino to sneak into the 2012 top 15 and truly make a name for themselves.

The 2012 Blue Jays Bullpen

With the non-waiver trade deadline in the rear view mirror, we have a better grasp on what the 2012 Blue Jays pitching staff might look like. Toronto made 2 substantial trades, first acquiring Edwin Jackson from the Chicago White Sox, then subsequently shipping him to the Cardinals in exchange for Colby Rasmus (in a large package deal). To complete those transactions the Blue Jays were forced to move a substantial part of their 2011 bullpen. Jason Frasor and potential 2012 reliever Zach Stewart were sent to Chicago, while Marc Rzepczynski and Octavio Dotel were moved to St. Louis. The Blue Jays did acquire some arms in return in the Cardinals deal -- Trever Miller, Brian Tallet, and PJ Walters, but they are a step down from their predecessors and will have to compete for a bullpen job in 2012, if they're a member of the team at all.

There are a number of candidates within the Blue Jays organization to fill the seven bullpen spots in 2012, and that's without even considering the trades and free agent signings that we know Alex Anthopolous has up his sleeves. Given that those hypothetical transactions are impossible to predict in November, let alone August, for simplicity I will just examine the candidates that we have in the cabinet today.

Currently in the bullpen:

RHP Frank Francisco -- 4.0M (2011). Free agent at end of 2011 (Type B).

Francisco was expected to be Toronto's closer when he was acquired from Texas in exchange for Mike Napoli, but he has not performed as had been hoped. Despite his Type B status, it is unlikely the Blue Jays will offer him arbitration. With his poor season, it is unlikely he could fetch more on the open market than he would with an arbitration salary. Additionally, he burned Texas last season by accepting arbitration. Francisco is likely to walk.

Prediction: Gone

RHP Jon Rauch -- 3.5M (2011). 3.75M Club Option (2012). Free agent at end of 2011 (Type B).

Much like Francisco, Rauch was brought in to stabilize the back end of the bullpen, a mission he has failed. While he has struggled in save opportunities (11/16), he has still been a solid reliever and will likely see his club option picked up. His 2012 role will likely be more middle relief than late inning specialist.

Prediction: Returns, club option picked up

RHP Shawn Camp -- 2.25M (2011). Free agent at end of 2011.

Camp gave the Blue Jays three strong years from 2008 to 2010, but since late May this year he has been lit up like a Christmas tree. Camper has always been known as a rubber arm, but it's possible his age (35) and workload have finally caught up to him. Camp may return to Toronto for another year in 2012, but if so it will likely be with a paycut and a lesser role.

Prediction: Gone

LHP Trever Miller -- 2.0M (2011). Free agent at end of 2011.

The 38 year old Miller was acquired in the Rasmus deal, likely as nothing more than to balance the salaries for the rest of the season. As a lefty specialist, his 0.73 ERA vs lefties looks outstanding, but his 1.62 WHIP vs lefties suggests he has been extremely lucky. Right handers have absolutely destroyed Miller, and it's hard to keep a guy around who can only do one job and can't even do it that well. His salary almost guarantees he won't be retained for 2012.

Prediction: Gone

RHP Casey Janssen -- 1.095M (2011). Controllable through 2013.

Janssen has been an absolute stud out of the bullpen the last 2 years, and with some of the veterans moving on it is likely he will be asked to step up into a major late inning role in 2012. With his option years finally burned up, he shouldn't have to take a business flight to Las Vegas ever again.

Prediction: Returns

RHP Jesse Litsch -- 0.83M (2011). Controllable through 2014.

Litsch started the season in the rotation, but suffered an injury and was forced to the disabled list. After being cleared to resume pitching, he went on a 30 day rehab stint in the minor leagues, at the end of which the front office decided to option him to Triple-A Las Vegas. While he has served exclusively as a starter in his professional career, the Blue Jays recently recalled him to work out of the bullpen. Many people, myself included, thought it was just a temporary stay before he took the injured Carlos Villanueva's turn in the rotation, however with the promotion of heralded prospect Henderson Alvarez, it appears Litsch's relief role could be more permanent.

Prediction: Returns

LHP Luis Perez -- 0.4M (2011). Controllable through 2016.

Perez has been one of the more reliable arms in the 2011 bullpen and, much like Casey Janssen, he could be pushed into a more important role for the 2012 season. If Toronto is looking for a late inning lefty, Perez might be the guy. In 2011 vs lefties, Perez has a 3.20 ERA, 0.76 WHIP, 22/0 K/BB ratio and 15.00 GO/AO ratio while recording 57 outs. Impressive.

Prediction: Returns

Injured/disabled:

RHP Carlos Villanueva -- 1.415M (2011). Controllable through 2013.

Villanueva has been an absolute steal from the Brewers, and it's a shame he's now on the DL with arm soreness due to being overworked (I mentioned 2 weeks ago he needed to be returned to the bullpen if we wanted to avoid Brian Tallet'ing him). Hopefully the injury is nothing too serious and he will be healthy for 2012. Villanueva will need to be a key cog in a 2012 bullpen that could have a lot of inexperience.

Prediction: Returns

LHP Brian Tallet -- 0.75M (2011). Controllable through 2012.

A healthy but overworked Brian Tallet was given his walking papers after 2010, and I expect 2011 to end the same way. Much like Trever Miller, Tallet was moved to Toronto in the Rasmus trade solely to balance things off. Brian recently discovered he suffers from Polycystic Kidney Disease (PKD), a serious condition that could cause his kidneys to fail. He was diagnosed early, which should dramatically improve his chances of a recovery. I wish him a full recovery, as he always seemed like a good guy.

Prediction: Gone

RHP Dustin McGowan -- 0.45M (2011). Controllable through 2013.

While the front office has proclaimed McGowan will return as a starter due to a more regulated workload, I don't see how anyone can confidently say he is capable of throwing 200 innings in a season. Therefore I believe McGowan should be considered a darkhorse for the 2012 bullpen. Not because he lacks the arm (he still has his mid 90's heat and devastating slider), but because injuries have taken such a toll on his body. Every pitcher could be 1 pitch away from blowing out their arm, but with McGowan you almost fear the worst with every pitch. Regardless, given all that he has gone through and his refusal to walk away from his passion, it's impossible to root against Dustin.

Prediction: Activated / Called up

In the minors:

RHP PJ Walters -- 0.4M (2011). Controllable through 2016.

Walters has worked nearly exclusively as a starter in his professional career, but he does not appear to have the stuff to start in the AL East. His best chance at the big leagues may be as a reliever, but I'm not sure how well he could flourish in that role either. He should have a fair shot in Spring Training to prove himself, but if I were a betting man I'd expect him to be back in Triple-A.

Prediction: Assigned to minor leagues

RHP Joel Carreno -- MiLB salary (2011). Controllable through 2017+.

A true darkhorse for a bullpen role, Carreno features a fastball/slider combo that could translate well in relief. Carreno has been overshadowed by Toronto's wealth of bigger profile, higher upside arms, and as such his best shot at making the big leagues may be in the bullpen. He has future setup guy potential, and if the bullpen isn't addressed through free agency, he could very well have a role.

Prediction: Called up

Of the 12 candidates I mentioned, I have identified 7 as strong possibilities for the Blue Jays 2012 bullpen. It would be an inexpensive group, with only Jon Rauch making "free agent dollars". The remaining 6 -- Villanueva, Janssen, Litsch, Perez, McGowan, and Carreno -- would all be cost controlled for atleast the next 2 years. While it may seem perfect to have 7 candidates for 7 roles in the bullpen, relievers are so volatile by nature that it is unwise to enter a season with such a small reserve. Alex Anthopolous has shown a willingness to scour the market in January and February for cheap relief pitching on short term deals (typically with the potential for Type status), and it is very likely he'll do the same again this winter. Regardless, of the 7 I mentioned, I believe only Perez and Carreno would have options next year. Luis Perez has shown himself as a valuable member of the relief corps, so barring a complete meltdown it would be difficult to justify a demotion. Carreno, if he is even converted to a reliever at all, could very well be the 8th man in the bullpen if another veteran (Jason Frasor?) is brought into the fold.

The bullpen has been a bit of a black eye for Toronto this season, but many of the problems can be resolved within the organization without too much money being spent (no more BJ Ryan's, please). Many of the meltdowns have been related to Francisco, Rauch, and Camp, and with 2 of the 3 gone (and the 3rd in a non-closing role) hopefully some stability could be achieved. I am in full support of Chops McGowan getting a shot to be the closer, but if not him, there are a number of other options, particularly if Jason Frasor is brought back.

Outside of second base, the pitching rotation and starting lineup are relatively set for 2012, so the bullpen may be the area that Anthopolous chooses to tinker with over the winter months. What the 2012 staff looks like exactly we won't know until April 1st, but with some of the fat being trimmed, I expect there will be a substantial improvement.

#1: 3B Brett Lawrie

Name: Brett Lawrie
Position: Third Base
Acquired: Trade with Milwaukee in December 2010 (drafted 1st round, 2008)
Opening Day age: 21
Height/weight: 6'0", 215 lbs
Best/worst tool: Bat/fielding

Scouting Report:

Lawrie was drafted in June 2008, and at the time the Milwaukee Brewers announced their draftee as a catcher. Since then, he has moved from catcher to second base, and then second base to third base. A lot of these positional switches are due to Lawrie's glove, which is below average. His arm is strong, which is the reason why many scouts and analysts feel Lawrie may eventually end up as a corner outfielder. Additionally, Keith Law has described Lawrie as being an "intense, aggressive, one-speed player ... lack of finesse in his game is part of what holds him back as an infielder." Lawrie is an excellent hitter, however, as his upper body strength generates a lot of bat speed. His power is another plus tool, and while he may never be a 30 home run hitter, he should rack of doubles and triples as well as his 20+ home runs due to his line drive approach. Speed is another key aspect of Lawrie's game, as he combines natural athleticism with intelligent base running to rack up a lot of stolen bases as well as to turn singles into doubles, and doubles into triples.

Aside from his glove, Lawrie's biggest flaw may be his personality, though as outsiders looking in, it's difficult to analyze the situation. Most notably, Lawrie turned down an Arizona Fall League assignment from the Brewers. The Blue Jays are hoping any "character concerns" associated with Lawrie might diminish as he matures and plays at home in Toronto.

2010 Stats: .285/.346/.451 (.797 OPS), 36 2B, 16 3B, 8 HR, 63 RBI, 30 SB, 47/118 BB/K

2010 Analysis:

As a 20 year old, Lawrie spent the 2010 season with Milwaukee's Double-A affiliate, and while he struggled in the field as a second baseman, his bat met the match of Southern League pitchers. He fell short of his 2009 season total of 13 home runs, knocking only 8, but his 52 other extra base hits speak to the power potential hidden in his bat. His triple slash line is fantastic for an infielder in his age/level situation, and while he did rack up the strikeouts, his 47 walks represent his solid plate approach. His 30 stolen bases were a nice complement to his power.

2011 Stats: .353/.415/.661 (1.076 OPS), 24 2B, 6 3B, 18 HR, 61 RBI, 13 SB, 26/53 BB/K

2011 Analysis:

In his first year with Toronto, the 21 year old Lawrie was assigned to Triple-A Las Vegas. Lawrie's offensive skills combined with the launching pad that is Cashman Field to create the incredible statistics above. The 18 home runs in a half season of at-bats does not indicate that Lawrie has 36 HR potential, it's simply the PCL and park effects making a solid power hitter look like a true slugger. Despite the above information, Lawrie still increased his power numbers across the board and kept his walk rate roughly the same (7.7% in '10, 8.0% in '11) while reducing his strikeout rate from 19.4% to 16.0%.

Future outlook:

Brett Lawrie was promoted to Toronto after today's game in Tampa Bay, and will take over third base duties immediately (with Jose Bautista returning to right field). While he may not be at that position 5 years down the line, Lawrie appears to have placed his stake there for the remainder of 2011 as well as for at least 2012. After that, the Blue Jays may re-evaluate Lawrie's defensive position, depending upon how much success he had at the hot corner. While it is never wise to say a player is done with the minor leagues, Lawrie has proven all he needs to with the bat, and infield coach Brian Butterfield can offer more to Brett Lawrie defensively than the minor league coaches ever could.

Perfect world projection: All Star MLB 3B, potential .300/20/20 hitter.

Worst case scenario: 2nd division MLB OF/DH.

Most likely outcome: 1st division MLB 3B/OF, possible All Star appearances during prime years.

#2: RHP Kyle Drabek

Name: Kyle Drabek
Position: Right-handed SP
Acquired: Trade with Philadelphia in December 2009 (drafted 1st round, 2006)
Opening Day age: 23
Height/weight: 6'1", 220 lbs
Best/worst tool: Curveball/command

Scouting Report:

Kyle Drabek has a lot of firepower within his 6'1" frame. The son of former Cy Young Award winner Doug Drabek, Kyle has an arsenal in his right arm can make even the most skeptical scouts impressed. Drabek features three above average fastballs: a 4-seamer capable of touching 97 mph, a low 90's 2-seamer with plus movement, and a low 90's cutter he uses to bust lefties inside. His best pitch, however, is his plus-plus spike curveball. Thrown in the low to mid 80's, Drabek's curveball falls off by 10-12 inches as it approaches home plate. That type of vertical break combined with the velocity of the pitch makes it one of the better breaking pitches around. His 5th pitch is a below average changeup that has the potential to be average but will never be a go-to pitch. Drabek's command is inconsistent at best, varying from average to below average. He profiles as a 75 walk, 150 strikeout pitcher down the road. Drabek is fiery pitcher on the mound, likely the result of constantly being challenged to live up to his father's lofty expectations. He is prone to outbursts, but is much improved in that regard since going through the humbling experience of Tommy John surgery.

2010 Stats (MiLB): 162 IP, 126 H, 53 ER, 12 HR, 68 BB, 132 K
1.63 GO/AO, 2.94 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 7.33 K/9

2010 Stats (MLB): 17 IP, 18 H, 9 ER, 2 HR, 5 BB, 12 K
3.44 GO/AO, 4.76 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 6.35 K/9

2010 Analysis:

For his first season in the Blue Jays organization, Drabek was assigned to Double-A New Hampshire. In his second year after returning from Tommy John surgery, he was consistent from month to month, and was named as the Eastern League's Pitcher of the Year in 2010. Drabek's season was highlighted by a summer no-hitter. With that being said, his strikeout rate of 7.33 is below what is typically expected of a potential top of the rotation starter.

After the Fisher Cats were eliminated from the Eastern League playoffs, Drabek was called up to Toronto in September during which he made 3 solid, albeit unspectacular starts. His strikeout rate was once again low, but he has the repetoire to improve upon that with improved command.

2011 Stats (MLB): 72.2 IP, 78 H, 46 ER, 9 HR, 52 BB, 48 K
1.20 GO/AO, 5.70 ERA, 1.79 WHIP, 5.95 K/9

2011 Stats (MiLB): 37.2 IP, 52 H, 29 ER, 6 HR, 22 BB, 27 K
1.31 GO/AO, 6.93 ERA, 1.96 WHIP, 6.45 K/9

2011 Analysis:

Drabek was named to Toronto's rotation in the spring, and due to a Brandon Morrow injury he was the #2 starter in April. He started the season strong, with a dominating 7 inning, 1 hit performance on the 2nd game of the season. After that start, however, he really began to struggle with his command, and his season went south. His struggles culminated in a demotion to Triple-A following a start against Boston in which he was knocked around for 8 runs across 4 innings.

Since his demotion, Drabek has shown some promise but has seen many of the same issues from Toronto carry over. His strikeouts are still lower than one would hope, and his command has come and gone. In 4 of his 8 starts he allowed 3 walks or less in 6 innings, however in the remaining 4 he combined to walk 16 batters in 13.2 innings. He has given up a lot of hits and home runs, but that can atleast be partially attributed to the Vegas effect (.362 BABIP).

Future outlook:

Drabek would definitely like a do-over for the 2011 season, as it's hardly gone to plan. Given the impossibility of that proposition, it can only be hoped that Drabek will try to find some positives in his 2011 season to keep his confidence up, then work in the offseason and spring on fixing the issues that gave him so many problems -- metaphorically finding his command, and literally finding his curveball. The only two starters who have a rotation spot locked up for 2012 are Romero and Morrow, so Drabek should have every opportunity to grab hold of one of the final 3 spots. As the center piece of the Roy Halladay trade, he will be given ample time to prove himself.

Perfect world projection: Front of the rotation starter on a good team with regular Cy Young votes in his prime years, if his command returns and his changeup improves.

Worst case scenario: Back of the rotation starter with flashes of brilliance but crippling inconsistency.

Most likely outcome: #3 MLB starter on a good team if his command returns.