2012 Top Prospects #24: Marcus Knecht

Name: Marcus Knecht
Position: Left Field
Acquired: 3rd round (2010)
Opening Day age: 21
Height/weight: 6’1”/200 lbs
Best/worst tool: Bat/fielding
Risk factor: Medium
ETA: 2014

Scouting Report

To say Knecht is anything beyond an offensive prospect at this point would be a lie, as his defensive skills aren’t particularly impressive. Both his fielding and arm strength are fringe-average, making left field his best-case defensive position, and first base or designated hitter his worst-case. Despite the defensive deficiencies, Knecht is a solid athlete. He has exceptional straight line speed but has yet to turn that into measureable statistics like triples and stolen bases. With some extra work on his baserunning, his speed tool could be better utilized. Knecht’s best tool is his fringe-plus bat. His swing is smooth and easy, and his plate discipline shows maturity beyond his years. This approach allows him to generate solid power without having a ton of loft on his swing. The power tool is presently average, but with his bat skills and muscular build (6’1”, 200 lbs) it has above average potential.

2011 Statistics and Analysis

439 AB, .273/.377/.474 (.851 OPS), 34 2B, 3 3B, 16 HR, 86 RBI, 4 SB, 67/124 BB/K

Prior to wearing down in the second half of the season, Knecht was playing like one of the best offensive prospects in Toronto’s system. At the end of July, Knecht was hitting .302/.391/.491 (.882). In August and early September his performance fell of dramatically, likely a fatigue issue. 2011 was Knecht’s first year in full season ball after playing only 61 games in 2010, many of which were at designated hitter. While the overall season line is still very impressive, his line from the first four months is an indication of how good his bat can be. The power is expressing itself mostly in doubles at this time, but as he continues to mature he could become more of a 20-25 home run guy.

Expected 2012 Assignment: High-A Dunedin

Future Outlook

Knecht’s path to affiliated ball was an unusual one that included losing nearly an entire developmental year because his college wouldn’t give him at-bats. He rebuilt his draft stock in 2010 has continued to improve every year since being selected by the Blue Jays. His first year in full season ball had some ups and downs, but he proved more than capable of handling minor league pitching. The next level will be a challenge, as he will be entering the always pitching-rich Florida State League after spending 2011 in a pitching-depleted Midwest League. With such a polished bat it would be shocking to see Knecht struggle too much as he continues to advance. A late season appearance with Double-A New Hampshire is not out of the question. Conservative estimates would have Knecht make his major league debut in mid-2014, but if the defense doesn’t hold him back he could be up earlier.

Perfect World Projection: Everyday LF who hits 2nd or 6th in the lineup.

Blue Jays Positional Primer: Corner Outfield

Inspiration for the Blue Jays Positional Primer series comes from Jason Parks of Baseball Prospectus. Over the course of the second half of the season, Jason examined the prospects in the entire minor leagues on a position-by-position basis, giving insight into players both within and well outside the top 100 rankings.

While the sample size of one team is vastly inferior to that of the entire minor leagues, I feel Toronto has enough depth in the farm -- particularly in the low minors -- that such a series could provide some insight into prospects that Blue Jays fans aren't as familiar with as they should be. This is the sixth installment of an eight part series that will examine catcher, first base, middle infield, third base, center field, corner outfield, right handed pitcher, and left handed pitcher. The middle infield and corner outfield lists are included as there's really no such thing as a second base or left field prospect, they're just shortstops and center/right fielders who couldn't handle the defensive demands and get moved to the easier defensive position as they age. It should be noted that -- outside of the Leader of the Pack, who is the #1 for the position -- these are not necessarily progressive rankings of the prospects.

Part I -- Blue Jays Positional Primer: Catcher
Part II -- Blue Jays Positional Primer: First Base
Part III -- Blue Jays Positional Primer: Middle Infield
Part IV -- Blue Jays Positional Primer: Third Base
Part V -- Blue Jays Positional Primer: Center Field
Part VII -- Blue Jays Positional Primer: Right-handed Pitcher
Part VIII -- Blue Jays Positional Primer: Left-handed Pitcher

Leader of the Pack

Christopher Hawkins –- 2011 team: Rookie-class Bluefield
242 AB, .318/.375/.492 (.866 OPS), 15 2B, 6 3B, 5 HR, 52 RBI, 14 SB, 22/46 BB/K

Originally announced as a shortstop in the 2010 draft, Hawkins has since moved to third base and subsequently to the outfield, where he manned left for the Bluefield Blue Jays in 2011. Hawkins was a 3rd round pick for Toronto, and signed early enough to play 46 games for the Gulf Coast Blue Jays in his draft season, a rare thing to see from a highschool player selected early. Hawkins is the first of four Toronto Top 30 prospects to make the corner outfield positional primer.

Switching defensive positions early in a career is often a bad sign. Moving twice from shortstop (a high demand defensive position) to third base (a medium demand defensive position) to left field (a low demand defensive position) is even worse. It’s not that Hawkins isn’t athletic; he just lacks the smoothness and grace required for an infield position. His six triples and 14 stolen bases in 68 games can attest to his above average running ability and athleticism. His power is fringe above average, but his 15 HR ceiling certainly looks more impressive from shortstop than it does in left field. Hawkins best tool, however, is his bat. He has excellent pitch recognition and his strong build (6’2”, 195 lbs) allows him to generate good bat speed, lining balls to all fields. There is still some belief he could play center field due to his borderline plus calibre arm, but with the wealth of centerfielders in Toronto’s system already, Hawkins should be kept in left and allowed to work on the development of his swing.

Hawkins killed the Appalachian League as 19/20 year old, and now has two years worth of short season experience under his belt. It’s probably time for Hawkins to make the leap to full season ball with the Lansing Lugnuts, as he is Toronto’s most experienced corner outfielder in the low minors and has the approach/maturity combination to handle any of the ups and downs the Midwest League might throw at him.

The Question Mark

Moises Sierra –- 2011 team: Double-A New Hampshire
495 AB, .277/.342/.436 (.778 OPS), 19 2B, 3 3B, 18 HR, 67 RBI, 16 SB, 39/93 BB/K

An international free agent signee in late 2005, Sierra recently completed his sixth season in the Blue Jays organization despite only turning 23 years old in late September. His first four seasons followed a path typical of young Dominican prospects, as he spent two years in short season leagues –- one in the Dominican League, followed by one in the Gulf Coast League. In 2008 he made the leap to full season ball with Single-A Lansing, and in 2009 he established his prospect status, hitting .292/.360/.399 (.759) in 118 games between High-A Dunedin and Double-A New Hampshire -– two leagues that are often difficult to hit in.

Sierra’s career got completely sidetracked in 2010, which leads to his status as the corner outfield’s biggest question mark. He played only 20 total games that season due to a couple of very significant injuries. First, he suffered a microfracture in his shin early in the season, forcing him to miss almost three full months. Later, not long after returning, he suffered a broken hamate bone. The hamate is a small bone near the base of the hand that usually takes 4-6 weeks for the bone to heal, but the damage to the player’s power often takes much longer to recover from. Sierra entered 2011 healthy for the first time in years, and took an aggressive assignment in stride, putting together the solid all-around line seen above.

His best tool is his arm, which is easily the best of any of Toronto’s outfield prospects. It’s at least a 70 tool, and has likely received more than a few 80’s from scouts in attendance of his games. His fielding skills in right field are solid, but his arm is so good it would be waste to try him elsewhere. His power took a huge step forward in 2011, as he doubled his previous career high in home runs. At 6’0”, 225 lbs, it’s possible there is potential for further power growth. His bat tool is fringe average-above average, but his much improved plate discipline allows it to play up. He has stolen 10+ bases in four seasons which is indicative of his above average raw speed, but his 14 caught stealing in 2011 suggest he needs some refinement in his base running skills. With a Triple-A Las Vegas assignment in 2012, Sierra could really go off.

Remember the Name

Marcus Knecht –- 2011 team: Single-A Lansing
439 AB, .273/.377/.474 (.851 OPS), 34 2B, 3 3B, 16 HR, 86 RBI, 4 SB, 67/124 BB/K

Born in Toronto, Knecht followed a different path to affiliated ball than most. Knecht was originally drafted out of high school by the Milwaukee Brewers in the 23rd round of the 2008 draft, but instead chose to fulfill his commitment to Oklahoma State. His university of choice did not show him the same commitment, as they gave him only 12 at-bats in his freshman season. Knecht decided to take his talents elsewhere, transferring to nearby Connors State Junior College. The move paid off, as Knecht crushed the ball in a fulltime role, and had scouts throwing draft grades on him as high as the first round. Toronto took a risk waiting until the 113th pick, but got their man in the third round.

Knecht is a mediocre fielder with a fringe-average arm, making his best-case defensive position left field, and his worst-case either first base or designated hitter. Regardless, Knecht wasn’t considered a potential first round pick because of his defensive skills – he possesses an impressive power/speed combination in addition to his best tool, his bat. According to Perfect Game, Knecht runs a 6.54 60-time, which is exceptional straight-line speed. That speed has yet to turn into triples and stolen bases, but they could come as his baserunning skills improve. He has a smooth and easy swing to go along with a disciplined approach at the plate, giving the potential for above average to plus hit and power tools. He uses the entire field well, which allows him to be strong against both left handed and right handed pitchers.

Playing alongside Jake Marisnick and Michael Crouse in the Lansing outfield, Knecht helped to drive the Lugnuts to the Midwest League championship, where they eventually fell in three games to the Quad City River Bandits. Fatigue may have been a factor late in the season for Knecht, as it was his first taste of full season ball in addition to the long playoff run. The statistics back up that assessment, as he hit .302/.391/.491 (.882) through the first four months of the season before falling off drastically in August and September. With the knowledge and experience gained from full season ball, Knecht should be better prepared for 2012 and ready to rake for five-plus months in Dunedin.

Prove It

Michael Crouse –- 2011 team: Single-A Lansing
364 AB, .261/.352/.475 (.827 OPS), 26 2B, 5 3B, 14 HR, 55 RBI, 38 SB, 44/113 BB/K

The fourth player on the corner outfield primer is the list’s second Canadian, Michael Crouse. Unlike Knecht who was born in the home of the Blue Jays, Crouse is yet another product from the outstanding baseball programs of British Columbia, where current major leaguers Justin Morneau, Brett Lawrie, Jason Bay, Rich Harden, Ryan Dempster, and Jeff Francis (among others) all learned to play ball. Of the three corner outfielders who entered the draft, Crouse was the lowest selected as a 16th rounder in 2008.

Crouse only turned 21 years old last month, but has already spent parts of four seasons in Toronto’s farm system -- though he has only started playing up to his potential in the last two. It shouldn’t really come as a surprise, however, as Crouse only recently became a one sport athlete. Throughout highschool, Crouse and his 6’4”, 215 lbs frame played a lot of football which, while greatly increasing his strength and athleticism, decreased the amount of time he spent in the cages learning the intricacies of the game. The growth is obvious, as his improvement with his bat has allowed both his power and speed tools to shine. In his last two seasons he has posted .859 and .827 OPS values respectively, while totalling 38 doubles, 10 triples, 20 home runs, and 52 stolen bases in 157 games. The only tool lacking is the bat, though it is more than playable. If he could continue to improve it to even fringe above average, he could me a monster in the power department.

It’s very likely that Crouse and his two Lugnuts outfielder pals will be reunited again next season with the Dunedin Blue Jays, which should be a good challenge for the three, but Crouse in particular. 2011 was a weak year for pitching in the Midwest League, but the Florida State League will always have good pitchers and pitcher-friendly parks. If he continues his success from the past two seasons into the FSL, his breakout will be very real and he’ll start flying up prospect charts. Until that time, he still falls into the “prove it” category.

For anyone reading this article or who reads my blog regularly, thank you, it means a lot, and have a Merry Christmas / Happy Holidays!

Two 2010 Draftees making their mark

The 2010 draft may go down as one of the better drafts in Blue Jays history and, unsurprisingly, it was Anthopolous' first at the helm. The Blue Jays had 11 picks in the first 5 rounds, and managed to successfully sign all 11 players. Three of those players -- McGuire, Sanchez, and Wojciechowski, made my Blue Jays Top 15 prospects list, while another (Marcus Knecht) has gained a lot of national publicity due to his Canadian roots.

Despite being drafted early (38th and 80th overall respectively), Noah Syndergaard and Justin Nicolino have flown under the prospect radar. Both players signed for around $600,000 USD, which is roughly slot for Syndergaard, but overslot for Nicolino. With MLB's useless policy of holding back overslot deal in an attempt to lower the market, Syndergaard was able to debut in late 2010, while Nicolino missed an opportunity to pitch in his new organization.

The right handed Syndergaard was seen by many as a safety pick, after Toronto's first two draft picks were used on Deck McGuire and Aaron Sanchez, both of whom were known to be seeking overslot money. Given that he is a high school pitcher I'm not sure how anyone could consider him a "safe" pick, but regardless the Blue Jays were happy to see him fall into their laps at 38, and even happier that he signed early and was able to get on the field.

Despite signing early, Syndergaard made only 5 starts (13.1 IP) for the Blue Jays Gulf Coast affilate in an effort to control his workload in his first year with the organization.

Noah is a big kid, standing 6 foot 5 and weighing 200 lbs. With such a long, lean frame, it is believed that as he matures he will be capable of adding muscle mass and could see a spike in fastball velocity. He throws his 4-seamer in the low 90's, but is already capable of touching 94-95 mph. As he is in such a transitional phase physically, it's fun to speculate that he could see his fastball start sitting 92-94 mph and touching 96-97 mph a few years down the road, but, at the same time, pitching prospects are so unpredictable that it's just as possible his fastball has capped out at above average. In addition to his 4-seamer, he throws a decent curveball that has shown plus potential. Strong coaching could really making it a great pitch. As with most highschool arms, Syndergaard worked primarily with those two pitches, but has also worked in a mediocre changeup that is a work in progress. He hasn't shown a ton of feel for it yet, so it would be difficult to give it anything above average potential. Syndergaard is mentally strong as well, as entering his draft year he was considered a "pop-up prospect" -- a potential draftee who shot up draft charts in the spring. His agent mentioned in an interview with Jays Journal that the improvements which resulted in his draft stock skyrocketing were through hard work and an outstanding work ethic on Noah's part.

In his first full season with the Blue Jays, Syndergaard has split the year between Bluefield (Rookie League) and Vancouver (Short season Low-A). He has posted strong numbers, giving up only 32 hits and 7 earned runs in 41 innings. Just as impressively, he has struck out 49 batters and walked only 14. These numbers translate to a 1.54 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 3.50 K/BB, 10.76 K/9, and .211 BAA -- all of which are outstanding.

Despite being their 7th selection, the left handed Nicolino was taken in the 2nd round and, much like Syndergaard, was overshadowed by the bigger names in the top of Toronto's draft. As the 4th highschool pitcher drafted by the Blue Jays in 2010, Nicolino was a continuation of General Manager Alex Anthopolous' apparent goal of targeting high upside talent, regardless of the risk involved. As mentioned, Nicolino's overslot signing bonus was held back by Bud Selig and the Commissioners Office, making 2010 a lost year professionally.

Unlike Syndergaard, Justin Nicolino has an extremely wirey frame, standing 6 foot 3 and weighing only 160 lbs. Shockingly, that weight is a dramatic improvement upon his weight of 145 lbs in his highschool years, during which he he had trouble sitting in the mid 80's. Now slightly heavier, Nicholino works his fastball between 88 and 92 mph, and has the ability to paint the bottom corners. Nicolino features two offspeed pitches -- a high 70's changeup and a low 70's curveball. Unlike many highschool pitchers, Nicolino throws both offspeed pitches frequently, which is likely a big factor in his early professional success. His arm action is a little inconsistent between his fastball and changeup, but the delivery is relatively smooth for a pitcher of his age and development stage. Nicolino's greatest strengths may be his command and pitching IQ, both of which he developed while working with a below average repetoire. As his arsenal continues to improve while he matures physically, those tools should further accentuate his pure stuff, and may allow him to pitch above his natural ability.

Nicolino was assigned to short season Low-A, and he has been nothing short of dominant. In his 45 innings of work, he has allowed only 23 hits and 6 earned runs. He has walked 11, and struck out an outstanding 58 -- good for a 1.20 ERA, 0.76 WHIP, 5.27 K/BB, 11.60 K/9, and .151 BAA. These numbers are not floated simply by a strong outing or two either, Nicolino has been consistently dominant. In 6 of his 10 games, he allowed 1 or fewer hits. In 8 of his 10 starts, he allowed 1 or fewer walks. In 7 of his 10 starters, he struck out 5 batters or more (which is particularly impressive given his game limit of 5 innings per start). All of this translates into one of the most dominant stretches by any pitcher in the Blue Jays farm system in recent memory.

While both pitchers are years away from sniffing the Toronto rotation, they are most certainly two arms who deserve more attention than they have been getting. Toronto's prospect rankings are going to see a dramatic facelift entering 2012 due to promotions (Lawrie, Drabek, Arencibia), trades (Stewart), struggles (Perez, Wojciechowski) and surges (d'Arnaud, Alvarez, Marisnick, Hutchison, etc), which could allow prospects like Syndergaard and Nicolino to sneak into the 2012 top 15 and truly make a name for themselves.