2012 Top Prospects #18: A.J. Jimenez

Name: A.J. Jimenez
Position: Catcher
Acquired: 9th round (2008)
Opening Day age: 21
Height/weight: 5’11”/200 lbs
Best/worst tool: Arm/power
Risk factor: Low
ETA: 2013

Scouting Report

The scouting report on A.J. Jimenez has changed dramatically since being selected in the 9th round of the 2008 draft. At the time, Jimenez was a young Puerto Rican catcher who fell into the dreaded “catch and throw” category. The defense is still there, but the bat skills have improved enough to give him starting catcher potential. His hit tool has evolved from below average to above average, perhaps due almost entirely to improvements in his plate approach. He’s never going to be a big walk guy, but the improvements he’s made since 2008 in that regard are like night and day. His power is his worst tool, grading out as below average. Jimenez’ swing is level, generating primarily line drive power as opposed to loft. At 21 years old it’s unlikely he’s going to grow much bigger, so his home run power should be capped in the single digits. Jimenez is very athletic and his solid-average speed makes him an excellent base runner. While speed isn’t required to be a good catcher, it also shouldn’t be overlooked. With that being said, Jimenez truly shines with a mask and glove on. His arm is his best tool, grading out as plus, if not plus-plus. He has excellent instincts behind the plate, playing balls in the dirt aggressively and taking a leadership role with his pitcher. His arm and glove alone should get him to the big leagues, his bat will determine what type of role that is.

2011 Statistics and Analysis

379 AB, .303/.353/.417 (.770 OPS), 29 2B, 1 3B, 4 HR, 52 RBI, 11 SB, 28/60 BB/K

For the second consecutive season Jimenez finished with a batting average in the .300 range. While batting average is a poor indicator of a players true ability, it’s a good sign considering the questions surrounding Jimenez’ bat when he was drafted. Beyond the hitting improvement, he has also drastically improved his plate approach. In each of the past three seasons, he has increased his walk rate while reducing his strikeout rate. The power numbers aren’t there and probably never will be, but as long as he can maintain an ISO of 100 or higher, it shouldn’t be detrimental to his value. What’s not listed above are his defensive statistics, which are perhaps even more impressive. Jimenez caught 44% of potential base stealers, which is actually down from his 53% caught stealing rate in 2010. He also allowed only 6 passed balls in 98 games. For comparison, Toronto’s top catching prospect Travis d’Arnaud caught only 27% of base stealers and allowed 13 passed balls in his 98 games.

Expected 2012 Assignment: Double-A New Hampshire

Future Outlook

Over the past two seasons, Jimenez has really come into his own as a prospect. He has transformed himself from a “catch and throw” catcher into an all around ball player. The biggest obstacle for him to conquer at this point might be Toronto’s catching depth. Despite ranking as Toronto’s 18th best prospect, he has J.P. Arencibia (MLB) and Travis d’Arnaud (AA) immediately ahead of him on the depth chart. What Jimenez has on his side, however, is his defensive ability. Toronto will face a franchise changing decision within the next two years, as they’ll need to decide which of the two aforementioned catchers will be the starter going forward. It’s likely that the loser of the battle will find himself as trade bait, opening the door for Jimenez to sneak in as the backup. With Double-A on the immediate horizon for 2012, he could see both Triple-A and Toronto at some point in 2013.

Perfect World Projection: Everyday catcher who could contend for Gold Glove awards

Blue Jays Positional Primer: Catcher

Inspiration for the Blue Jays Positional Primer series comes from Jason Parks of Baseball Prospectus. Over the course of the second half of the season, Jason examined the prospects in the entire minor leagues on a position-by-position basis, giving insight into players both within and well outside the top 100 rankings.

While the sample size of one team is vastly inferior to that of the entire minor leagues, I feel Toronto has enough depth in the farm -- particularly in the low minors -- that such a series could provide some insight into prospects that Blue Jays fans aren't as familiar with as they should be. This is the first installment of an eight part series that will examine catcher, first base, middle infield, third base, center field, corner outfield, right handed pitcher, and left handed pitcher. The middle infield and corner outfield lists are included as there's really no such thing as a second base or left field prospect, they're just shortstops and center/right fielders who couldn't handle the defensive demands and get moved to the easier defensive position as they age. It should be noted that -- outside of the Leader of the Pack, who is the #1 for the position -- these are not necessarily progressive rankings of the prospects.

Part II -- Blue Jays Positional Primer: First Base
Part III -- Blue Jays Positional Primer: Middle Infield
Part IV -- Blue Jays Positional Primer: Third Base
Part V -- Blue Jays Positional Primer: Center Field
Part VI -- Blue Jays Positional Primer: Corner Outfield
Part VII -- Blue Jays Positional Primer: Right-handed Pitcher
Part VIII -- Blue Jays Positional Primer: Left-handed Pitcher

The Leader of the Pack

Travis d’Arnaud –- 2011 team: Double-A New Hampshire Fisher Cats
424 AB, .311/.371/.542 (.914 OPS), 33 2B, 1 3B, 21 HR, 78 RBI, 4 SB, 33/100 BB/K

There is no doubting that Travis d’Arnaud is the best catching prospect in the Blue Jays system, as he is probably the best prospect in the entire system regardless of position. d’Arnaud was acquired as the “third piece” in the Roy Halladay deal of December 2009, but only two years later he may infact be the true prize of the deal. Kyle Drabek has struggled, while Michael Taylor was traded for Brett Wallace, who was traded for Anthony Gose, who – while possessing an exceptional ceiling –- is a work in progress.

While the tools were apparent, d’Arnaud struggled throughout his debut season with Toronto. Playing for the Dunedin Blue Jays of the Florida State League, the biggest issue he encountered was an injured back that crept up on him on a number of occasions after initially suffering the injury in May. Even after returning from the injury d’Arnaud struggled to make consistent contact with the ball, finishing with a .259/.315/.411 (.726) slash line in 263 at bats before eventually being shut down late in the season because of the back problems. Despite these struggles, people around the league still recognized his talent, as he was named both a Mid-Season and Post-Season All Star in the Florida State League.

Speaking of tools, d’Arnaud is perhaps the best all-around catching prospect that the Blue Jays have ever developed. While he lacks the power of J.P. Arencibia, the arm of Carlos Perez, or the plate discipline of Brian Jeroloman, d’Arnaud’s biggest strength is his lack of weaknesses. Outside of speed – which is completely unnecessary for a catcher –- d’Arnaud is above average to plus in each of the other four tools –- power, bat, arm, and fielding. This wide array of tools finally translated into statistical success in 2011, a year in which he led the New Hampshire Fisher Cats to the Eastern League championship. As long as he can avoid a recurrence of his past back injuries, d’Arnaud should continue his success with Triple-A Las Vegas next year, before eventually pushing J.P. Arencibia for the starting job in Toronto.

Mr Consistency

A.J. Jimenez –- 2011 team: High-A Dunedin Blue Jays
379 AB, .303/.353/.417 (.770 OPS), 29 2B, 1 3B, 4 HR, 52 RBI, 11 SB, 28/60 BB/K

After putting together back-to-back solid seasons, A.J. Jimenez earns the title of Mr Consistency in the catcher category. He lacks the upside and -– to be honest -– pure talent of d’Arnaud, but a future in Major League Baseball is a real possibility for Jimenez. Despite hailing from Latin America, Jimenez was drafted as an 18 year old in the 9th round of the 2008 draft due to MLB’s policy on draft eligibility for Puerto Rican born players.

Jimenez spent 70 of his 72 games during the 2010 season with the Lansing Lugnuts of the Midwest League. With the Lugs’, Jimenez put together a .305/.347/.435 (.782) slash line in 262 at-bats. He stole 17 bases in those 70 games, which speaks to the rare athleticism Jimenez features as a catcher. He has a plus arm, solid footwork, and great blocking skills behind the plate, earning the reputation as a plus defensive catcher. His biggest question mark coming out of the draft was his ability to hit professional pitching. After struggling at the plate in 2008 and 2009, Jimenez put together the two aforementioned solid offensive seasons. He doesn’t hit for much power and probably won’t drastically improve in that aspect, but his bat and plate discipline have shown enough that he should be considered a legitimate prospect. With Arencibia and d’Arnaud immediately ahead of him on the depth chart, it might require a trade for him to see Major League action with Toronto.

The Question Mark

Carlos Perez –- 2011 Team: Single-A Lansing Lugnuts
383 AB, .256/.320/.355 (.675 OPS), 17 2B, 6 3B, 3 HR, 41 RBI, 6 SB, 37/74 BB/K

The Question Mark of the catcher division is Carlos Perez. The title may be a little bit misleading, however, as Perez has all the tools you could ever want out of a catching prospect. The undrafted free agent made his professional debut in 2008, beginning his career with the Blue Jays affiliate in the short-season Dominican League. Perez would spend the next two seasons in short-season leagues as well, playing 2009 with the Gulf Coast League affiliate, and 2010 with the New York – Penn League affiliate. Perez combined to play 167 games across those three seasons, hitting .299 with an impressive 102/92 walk to strikeout ratio. He also stole 16 bases but managed only 3 home runs.

Much like first two catchers on this list, Perez has a nice collection of tools, and is probably the best defender of the bunch. He is very athletic –- not just by catcher standards –- allowing him to work magic behind the plate. He has an outstanding arm and balanced footwork, which results in pop times well under two seconds. The 2011 season brought the first big challenge of Perez’ career, as he made the leap from short-season ball to full-season ball. While the catching tools remained consistent, the bat and plate discipline took a huge step back. Perez struck out in a career-worst 17.2% of his plate appearances while seeing his ISO drop below .100. This is where the question mark comes from – can Carlos Perez handle the rigors of full-season ball? With d’Arnaud and Jimenez each likely moving up a level, it’s possible Perez could be challenged with a promotion to Dunedin next year.

Remember the Name

Santiago Nessy -- 2011 Team: GCL Blue Jays
134 AB, .306/.347/.425 (.773 OPS), 7 2B, 0 3B, 3 HR, 19 RBI, 0 SB, 8/29 BB/K

Rounding out the list of catchers in the Remember the Name category is Santiago Nessy, an 18 year old from the Venezuelan capital city of Caracas. Nessy was signed by the Blue Jays during the International Free Agent signing period (July) of 2009, receiving a substantial bonus of 0.75M. Nessy did not play in his signing year, instead making his professional debut in 2010 with the Blue Jays Dominican affiliate. While the offensive numbers weren’t staggering –- .248/.327/.376 (.703) –- it’s important to remember the context; a .703 OPS by a 17 year old in the DSL is far more acceptable than a .703 OPS by a 22 year old in Double-A, for example.

Currently listed at 6’2” and 230 lbs (and only turning 19 in December), it’s possible -– and probable -– that Nessy will outgrow the catcher position down the line. For now, however, the Blue Jays have no immediate plans to move him elsewhere on the diamond. While the previous three catchers on this list have all been above average or better defenders, Nessy is unlikely to ever fall under that classification. Like current Blue Jays catcher J.P. Arencibia, Santiago Nessy is offensively oriented. He uses his long arms and large frame to generate a lot of bat speed that could result in a lot of power down the line if his contact skills can keep up. While he’s too young and far away to have a legitimate chance at being a top 20 prospect for the upcoming season, it should be interesting to see what he can do with 200 to 250 at-bats, possibly with the Rookie-class Bluefield affiliate. Should he continue his success into 2012, Santiago Nessy will be a name that more than just the prospect nerds will be familiar with.