Trade Target: Pedro Alvarez

Name: Pedro Alvarez
Position: Third Base
Team: Pittsburgh Pirates
2012 Opening Day age: 25
Contract: 1 year, 0.7M remaining with two club options
Service time: < 2 years

Scouting Report:

Alvarez has a similar build to that of previously mentioned trade target Yonder Alonso, with the biggest difference being their defensive position. While Alonso is already stationed at first base, the 6'3", 235 lbs Alvarez is still attempting to remain at the hot corner. That experiment could nearing its end, as Alvarez' defense has never been considered strong and he has failed to make significant improvements in either of his major league seasons. His running ability is also below average. None of this is overly important, however, as Pedro Alvarez was not drafted for his speed nor his defensive abilties -- the Pirates made him the 2nd overall pick in 2008 because of his bat and overwhelming power. Alvarez has "pole to pole" power, with legitimate 70's being placed on the tool entering his draft year. A broken hamate bone early in his Junior year created some concerns, but he has since silenced any doubts regarding his power in his professional career (27 HR in 2009, 29 HR in 2010). The hitting tool is solid, but it is a step behind his power. He has a ton of bat speed, which allows him to see pitches longer and swing deeper in the strikezone. Alvarez also has some loft to his swing, which helps generate power but also creates a lot of flyballs. He'll never contend for batting titles, but is more than capable of putting together .900 OPS / 35 HR seasons in his prime.

2011 Statistics:

(AAA) 142 AB, .246/.365/.423 (.787 OPS), 5 2B, 1 3B, 6 HR, 21 RBI, 0 SB, 25/47 BB/K
(MLB) 235 AB, .191/.272/.289 (.561 OPS), 9 2B, 1 3B, 4 HR, 19 RBI, 1 SB, 24/80 BB/K

Why Toronto would want him:

While Alvarez has been a bit of a bust since being drafted 2nd overall in 2008, he still has all the power potential a team could ever wants from a corner infielder. First base should be a focus for improvement this offseason, and if Toronto avoids the big free agents they should attempt to improve via the trade route. Alvarez is currently listed as a third baseman, but first base is seeming more and more like his future destination. Much like Yunel Escobar and Colby Rasmus, Alvarez is a once highly touted player who is currently frustrating his team's front office and fan base. He has a lot of risk, but a change of scenery might be exactly what Alvarez needs to unlock his middle of the lineup potential.

Why Pittsburgh might trade him:

Pittsburgh has a poor track record with developing their top draft picks, and Alvarez is beginning to look like yet another casualty on that front. If the Pirates are beginning to have any doubts about Alvarez, they may feel now is the time to trade him while he still retains some of the hype and value of being a 2nd overall pick. The organization has already begun to show its frustration, demoting Alvarez down to Triple-A Indianapolis mid-season and not recalling him until rosters expanded in September. As a team that always seems to lack pitching, the Pirates could be tempted by Toronto's young, controllable, non-Boras client arms.

What exactly is Adeiny Hechavarria?

With the winter approaching and prospects lists slowly beginning to leak their way onto the internet, I have caught myself more than a few times thinking about the Blue Jays farm system in preparation for my own top prospect list in the new year.

In order to come up with my rankings, I make a series of lists throughout the winter, each without looking at any of my previous versions. I find this to be the best way to digest and analyze new information and thoughts I might have acquired without being heavily influenced by earlier judgements. When I eventually make my final rankings, I can look at the consistencies, inconsistencies, and trends my lists may have shown over the winter and use that information to give me a fair and unbiased review of the farm.

Only a few lists into this process, I can already sense there is at least one player that I really don't have a firm grasp on -- Cuban shortstop Adeiny Hechavarria. Entering the 2011 season, I had ranked Hechavarria as the #12 prospect in the Blue Jays system, while describing how his bat was the biggest question mark in determining how much success he would have. A season later, the same huge, elephant-in-the-room questions remain.

Will Hechavarria ever hit? How do you rank an all-defense prospect?

These are the two questions I keep asking myself when attempting to rank Hechavarria. The latter question would be easy to answer if I had confidence in the former. If I felt like it was only a matter of time before Hechavarria started putting together some solid offensive seasons, it would be easy to rank him in the top 10 -- perhaps even higher -- as shortstops with a potential all around tools package like that don't come around often. The problem is, two seasons into his career, Hechavarria has damaged most hope I had of him becoming a plus offensive shortstop.

In his debut season, Hechavarria hit .242/.272/.333 (.605) between Dunedin and New Hampshire. The following year, 2011, he hit .264/.305/.383 (.687) between New Hampshire and Las Vegas. While the Las Vegas portion of his slash line (.389/.431/.537) certainly looks good, it was only a months worth of at-bats, and the Pacific Coast League isn't exactly known for its pitchers. After the MiLB season came to an end, it was announced that Hechavarria would be assigned to the Phoenix Desert Dogs of the Arizona Fall League to continue his development. He has put together a solid, albeit unspectacular line of .246/.300/.462 (.762), as of November 9th. Much like the Pacific Coast League, however, the AFL is a notorious hitters league, so the power numbers (particularly the 4 triples in 17 games) should taken with a grain of salt.

I'm finding it harder and harder to convince myself that Hechavarria will ever be anything more than a .270/.320/.380 hitter. With defense considered, that's nothing to shake a stick at, but it's certainly not All Star calibre, and it's likely not even 1st division starter calibre.

So how exactly does one rank a defense-only prospect? Well, the most comparable player to Hechavarria might be fellow Cuban shortstop Jose Iglesias of the Boston Red Sox. Like Adeiny, Jose was signed as an International Free Agent during the 2009 season, receiving a substantial bonus and major league contract. Iglesias has two minor league seasons under his belt, with the first being very good (.295/.339/.379) and the second being beyond awful (.235/.285/.269). Expectations were raised after his superb debut, earning him the title as Boston's #1 prospect entering 2011 by both Baseball Prospectus and Baseball America (post A-Gon trade). Obviously, he failed to live up to the billing. Hechavarria has yet to experience a strong offensive season like Iglesias' 2010, but both are in a similar position entering 2012 -- exceptional defensive shortstops with huge questions about their bat skills.

Another problem working against Hechavarria is the strength of the system. It could be generously argued that Hechavarria "treaded water" during 2011, neither improving nor dimishing his prospect stock to any signficant degree. The issue is that, outside of Hechavarria, most of Toronto's other top prospects took steps forward last season. Additionally, Toronto experienced yet another successful draft under the leadership of Alex Anthopolous, further strengthening the ranks of a bloated system. Treading water isn't good enough here anymore -- either start swimming or get out of the way of the bigger fish. There will likely be a lot of variability in the rankings of Hechavarria between the various prospect websites, and what it comes down to is how much faith does the writer have in his bat coming around. If they think Hechavarria can develop his bat enough to play a regular role, they might just place him in the meat of the top 10. If they've soured on him, he may slip all the way to the back end of the top 20.

Blue Jays Contract Options

Heading into the 2011 offseason, the Blue Jays had decisions to make regarding club options on two players' contracts; Edwin Encarnacion and Jon Rauch. The decisions weren't particularly surprising.

1B/3B/DH Edwin Encarnacion: 3.5M Club Option (0.5M Buyout) -- PICKED UP

Despite playing nearly historically bad in the first half of the season, Encarnacion picked it up enough in the second half to have his club option picked up for 2012, and barring a major acquisition, guarantee a spot in the lineup as the starting DH. The .272/.334/.453 (.787 OPS) slash line isn't a particularly inspiring one from a potential designated hitter, but his pre- and post-All Star splits are so staggeringly different you have to hold out hope that Encarnacion finally figured himself out. He posted a .688 OPS with 19 doubles, 6 HR, and a 9/39 BB/K ratio in the first half, but followed that up with an .887 OPS, 17 double, 11 HR, and 34/38 BB/K ratio in the second half. If Encarnacion can carry his second half success over to the 2012 season, he could find himself hitting cleanup behind Jose Bautista while putting together impressive numbers entering his free agent walk year.

RP Jon Rauch: 3.75M Club Option (0.75M Buyout) -- DECLINED

Rauch began the season as the defacto closer because of a Frank Francisco arm injury, but never earned the trust of the fans (and seemingly, the front office). The Blue Jays felt it would be better to pay Rauch 750K to leave than to pay him an extra 3M and have him stay, which isn't surprising given the results. As I mentioned in the Making the Grade: The Bullpen piece, Jon Rauch seems to defy physics (but in the bad way), as his size and mass don't result in above average velocity or above average sink. He's a soft tosser who struggles to work in the bottom of the zone, which results in a ton of linedrives and flyballs. This quickly translates to a lot of hits and home runs with a poor groundball rate. Rauch might be the best evidence for the difference between control and command. Control is the ability to get pitches in the strikezone, command is the ability to put the pitch where you want it. Rauch has the former (as evident by his strong walk rates), but seriously lacks the latter. His struggles were emphasized by his role in the bullpen. If Jon Rauch were 6'2", 200 lbs and didn't have a beard/tattoos, he would never see the 8th or 9th inning in a close game. This is another case of teams going for the intimidation factor more than the effectiveness factor.

In other news, Toronto re-acquired Canadian relief pitcher Trystan Magnuson from the Athletics. The 6'7" Magnuson was originally sent to the A's as part of the Rajai Davis trade last offseason, but the Blue Jays pounced when Magnuson was Designated for Assignment by Oakland. Cash considerations went the other way. He should compete for a bullpen spot in the spring.