#3: C J.P. Arencibia

Name: Jonathan Paul Arencibia
Position: Catcher
Acquired: 1st round (2007)
Opening Day age: 25
Height/weight: 6'1", 210 lbs
Best/worst tool: Power/speed

Scouting Report:

Entering 2011, JP Arencibia was one of the best offensive catching prospects in the minor leagues. His power is outstanding for any player, and that power in a catching prospect is even more special. His other tools are average to below average, with his catcher's legs making him a poor base runner. His fielding and arm were well below average early in his career, but he has improved them enough that they could be considered fringy average to below average. His hit tool is a substantial question mark, as it is difficult for a player to reach his power ceiling when he's unable to make consistent contact. He definitely has 30+ HR power, but he likely has to improve his rate stats to reach the expected counting stats.

2010 Stats: .301/.359/.626 (.986 OPS), 36 2B, 32 HR, 85 RBI, 38/85 BB/K

2010 Analysis:

Arencibia was coming off a very poor 2009 season in his first go-around with Triple-A Las Vegas. He complained of having difficulties seeing the seams of the ball at night, which led to laser-eye surgery in the offseason. The changes were dramatic, as his batting average increased from .236 to .301 but, more importantly, he walked 38 times in 104 games. A drastic improvement upon his 26 walks in 116 games. He earned a September callup with the Blue Jays, but due to the short sightedness of then-manager Cito Gaston, he saw only 35 at-bats in the last 5 weeks of the season.

2011 Stats: .222/.284/.457 (.742 OPS), 12 2B, 17 HR, 49 RBI, 23/89 BB/K

2011 Analysis:

With John Buck in Florida, Arencibia was handed the reigns as the Blue Jays starting catcher in 2011. His power came as advertised, with 32 extra base hits in 82 games thus far, led by his near 30 home run pace. He has struggled to make consistent contact, with his batting average plumetting near the Mendoza Line in early July and his strikeout rate nearing 28%. His 7.2% walk rate is acceptable, especially for a rookie catcher.

Future outlook:

Arencibia is done with the minor leagues, so his focus going forward needs to be improving his contact rate and approach at the plate. Toronto has a much more well rounded catcher in Travis d'Arnaud chomping at the bit in Double-A, and will be big league ready by late 2012. Arencibia has until that time to prove he has what it takes to be a core member of the Toronto Blue Jays moving forward, else he could find himself on the trade block. A 2012 triple slash line of .250/.300/.500 likely saves his job temporarily. Anything below that, and he likely finds himself in a platoon or on another squad in 2013.

Perfect world projection: 1st division MLB starting catcher with multiple All Star appearances and Silver Slugger awards if he improves his approach at the plate.

Worst case scenario: 2nd division MLB starting catcher.

Most likely outcome: Fringe 1st/2nd division MLB starting catcher, possible All Star appearances and Silver Slugger awards in prime.

No more Jo-Jo, drastic changes await!

Early this afternoon, the Toronto Blue Jays officially announced they had designated pitcher Jo-Jo Reyes for assignment. This move puts Reyes in limbo for the next 10 days, during which the Blue Jays have an opportunity to work out a trade with any other team in baseball. If an agreement is reached, Reyes would immediately be placed on that team's active roster. Additionally, Reyes no longer holds a spot on Toronto's 40 man roster, lowering the Blue Jays total to 36 players. If no trade is consumated during that period, the Blue Jays can either attempt to pass him through waivers and re-assign him to the minor leagues, or hand him his outright release. As a corresponding move, Toronto purchased the contract of Wilfredo Ledezma from Las Vegas, adding him to the 40 man roster as well as the active, 25 man roster.

Reyes was acquired from the Braves last summer in the Yunel Escobar deal, and at the time, general manager Alex Anthopolous stated he would not have made the deal without the inclusion of the left hander. Reyes made 2 starts with the Blue Jays Double-A affiliate in New Hampshire last summer, before knee surgery ended his season in August. Reyes had an excellent track record in the minor leagues, and was given a legitimate shot in Spring Training 2011 to earn a spot in Toronto's starting rotation. He met the challenge, throwing 23 innings while allowing only 10 hits and 9 runs, walking 8, and striking out 18 (3.52 ERA, 0.78 WHIP).

That success did not translate into the regular season, as he averaged less than 5 innings per start in April and got hit around consistently. He peaked in May, pitching to decent numbers for a back-end starter and even ending his historically long winless drought. June, much like April, was another ugly month, but July was the straw that finally broke the camel's back. In 4 starts (21.1 IP), he allowed 34 hits and 19 earned runs, walked 7, and struck out only 5. His 5.40 season ERA looks bad, but his WHIP (1.59) and opposing slash line (entering last night -- .303/.360/.469, via @bluejaysbatboy) are absolutely disgusting.

Replacing him, atleast temporarily, is the aformentioned Wilfredo Ledezma. A big lefty (6'4", 225 lbs), Ledezma had been working out of Triple-A Las Vegas' bullpen. Since making the transition to the pen in 2007, his fastball has averaged between 92.5 and 93.7 mph, which is very strong for a left hander. In addition to his fastball, he also throws a slider in the low to mid 80's, and even throws a changeup every once in a while. It's a decent repetoire, but Ledezma has struggled with walks while in the majors, which has forced him to bounce between organizations looking for another shot.

I mentioned temporarily, because I don't foresee Ledezma staying in Toronto particularly long. Luis Perez was optioned to Las Vegas on July 19th to make room for Casey Janssen, and as such he cannot return to the majors until the 29th (10 days later) unless an opening is created by an injury requiring a DL-stint. Perez made his major league debut this season and has been a valuable asset out of the bullpen, posting strong strikeout, walk, groundball, and left-on-base rates. It is doubtful Toronto wants to keep him in Triple-A, and I imagine he will be back on August 1st.

Today's transactions once again put the pitching staff in flux. The team is now down a starter, leaving a vacancy for Reyes' next turn in the rotation (July 28th, vs BAL).

Additionally, tonight's starter Carlos Villanueva has already thrown 84.1 innings this year, and after throwing only 67 innings last year, he is likely approaching his limit as a starter. During April when he worked exclusively as a reliever, he threw 14.2 innings. If he pitches 6 innings tonight and then works exclusively as a reliever for August and September, he's looking at around 120 innings on the year, which would be more than he's pitched in a season since 2006. Villanueva is a useful pitcher, and if we don't want to Brian Tallet his arm, Texas should be his last start. That would create yet another void in the rotation behind Romero, Morrow, and Cecil.

The first, and most pressing roster move, is to find a starter for Thursday's game. There is likely 3 candidates for that start; Jesse Litsch, Zach Stewart, and Brad Mills. Litsch last pitched for Las Vegas on the 20th, so for him to take Reyes' spot he would either need to pitch on extended rest, or have the rotation rearrange itself so he could pitch on the 30th. Mills pitched last night for Las Vegas, struggling through 7 innings (11 H, 7 ER). Despite that start, Mills has pitched extremely well in the PCL, and is a strong candidate for promotion. Stewart also made his most recent start last night (with New Hampshire), and, almost like he knew there would be an opening in the rotation, he threw his best game of the year. He went 7.2 innings, allowing 6 hits and 1 run. He walked 1, and struck out 8 batters, picking up the win.

Given the circumstances, I imagine Stewart will be the one getting the call on the the 28th. He would be on regular rest, is coming off his best start of the season, has already been with Toronto this year, and made his first (and best) career start against the same Orioles he would be facing. Mills and Litsch would be likely be the main competitors for Villanueva's spot when he returns to the bullpen, but someone like Joel Carreno could be considered a dark horse for that spot.

The second set of roster moves will likely occur closer to the trade deadline. The Blue Jays possess a number of veteran relief pitchers with favorable contracts, and with so many teams in contention this year, the demand is likely to be strong. With the overflow of pitchers both currently in the majors or in the minors awaiting their turn, I expect Alex Anthopolous to move atleast 2 of his 5 veteran relievers (Camp, Dotel, Francisco, Frasor, Rauch).

If I had to make a prediction for the August 1st pitching staff, it would be as follows:

Rotation:

Romero (L)
Morrow
Cecil (L)
Stewart
Mills (L)

Bullpen:

Rauch
Frasor
Rzepczynski (L)
Francisco
Perez (L)
Janssen
Villanueva

In this scenario, Dotel and Camp would be traded. I won't even attempt to predict the team they would go to or the compensation received. Ledezma would be outrighted to the minor leagues (if he gets claimed, which is doubtful, so be it). Litsch and Drabek would remain with Triple-A until September, unless an injury arises.

Finally, there is the fate of Jo-Jo Reyes. While I am sure the Blue Jays hope he can clear waivers (assuming they don't trade him), I find it doubtful. He is still young and has a decent fastball/slider/changeup arsenal. While he has definitively proven he can't pitch in the AL East, the NL Central and NL West always seem to have teams willing to take on cheap projects. I can see the Astros, Dodgers, and Padres as potential fits for Reyes, where he could act as either a 5th starter or lefty reliever.

Regardless of the order in which the events occur, it is clear that the Blue Jays are preparing themselves for some pretty dramatic roster changes, and over the next week the Blue Jays will definitely be a team to watch.

#4: CF Anthony Gose

Name: Anthony Gose
Position: Center Fielder
Acquired: Trade with Houston in July 2010 (drafted 2nd round, 2008)
Opening Day age: 20
Height/weight: 6'1", 190 lbs
Best/worst tool: Speed/bat

Scouting Report:

Anthony Gose is an extremely toolsy outfield prospect who has a near limitless ceiling. His best tools are his fielding and speed, which are both plus-plus and will guarantee he eventually makes the majors in some regard. He also has an above average arm for a centerfielder, and his body type should keep him there long term. Gose's biggest question marks are his offensive tools, as his swing mechanics are mediocre at best right now and his power is unlikely to develop beyond 15 HR even when he matures. Gose works deep into counts, which leads to a solid walk rate but also high strikeout numbers. Both should improve with time as he gets older and more experienced. He has fast hands and good bat speed, so Gose just needs to focus on making contact and putting the ball in play.

2010 Stats: .262/.332/.393 (.724 OPS), 20 2B, 13 3B, 7 HR, 27 RBI, 45 SB, 45/132 BB/K

2010 Analysis:

Gose spent the 2010 season between two FSL teams, Clearwater and Dunedin, and held his own as a 19 year old. He hit .262, but unlike previous years it wasn't a hollow batting average. He improved his power and walk rate, but continued to strike out far too often for a top of the order hitter. Gose became far too wild on the basepaths, as his FSL leading 45 stolen bases came with 32 caught stealings.

2011 Stats: .251/.343/.392 (.735 OPS), 12 2B, 5 3B, 9 HR, 39 RBI, 45 SB, 42/96 BB/K

2011 Analysis:

At 20 years old, Gose has been working as one of the youngest players in the Eastern League. He has continued to make strides with his power and walk rate and has drastically improved his stolen base percentage. During May, Gose displayed what his ceiling may be, as he finished the month with a .296/.417/.472 (.889 OPS) slash line to go along with 9 extra base hits, 14 SB, and a 20/25 BB/K ratio in 31 games. April, June, and July have proven more difficult, which speaks to how far Gose still has to go with his hitting and consistency before he can make the majors.

Future outlook:

One thing to keep in mind when looking over Gose's career statistics is that he has always been young for the level he is playing. He was 18 in the Sally League, 19 in the Florida State League, and 20 in the Eastern League. Additionally, the last two are known predominantly for pitching. With that being said, I am impressed he has fared as well as he had. Most 20 year olds are either in A-ball or their sophomore college season, yet Gose is holding his own in the upper minors. Gose still likely needs another two full seasons in the minors to continue his development as a hitter, with 2012 likely being a split between New Hampshire and Las Vegas, and 2013 being a "show me" year in Triple-A with the potential for a September callup. Even if he doesn't get a full time position in Toronto until 2014, he would still only be 23, which is still very young for a major leaguer.

Perfect world projection: An All Star MLB CF, if Gose can continue learning to hit he has no limit. Would bat leadoff and be a perennial Gold Glove and stolen base title winner.

Worst case scenario: 4th outfielder, if his hit and power fail to develop. His defense and speed will get him to the majors as a pinch runner and defensive replacement.

Most likely outcome: A starting MLB CF, possible All Star appearances during his prime. Multiple Gold Gloves and stolen base titles.

#5: RHP Deck McGuire

Name: Deck McGuire
Position: Right-handed
Acquired: 1st round (2010)
Opening Day age: 21
Height/weight: 6'6", 220 lbs
Best/worst tool: Changeup/fastball

Scouting Report:

When he was drafted in the 1st round in the 2010 draft, the Blue Jays had a good idea of what they were getting because McGuire is not far from a finished product. McGuire's biggest strength is likely his lack of weaknesses. He throws an average fastball that sits 89-92 mph with a bit of sink, but nothing spectacular. McGuire also throws three offspeed pitches. His changeup is best pitch, and comes in around 80 mph with a lot of tail. His two other breaking pitches are an above average, mid 80's slider, and an average, looping mid 70's curveball. McGuire throws all four with above average command, and has a sound, repeatable delivery. His biggest flaw is his lack of overpowering stuff, as when his command is off or his offspeed pitches don't have bite, he can be hit around.

2010 Stats: N/A

2011 Stats: 98.2 IP, 87 H, 32 ER, 9 HR, 37 BB, 94 K
0.77 GO/AO, 2.92 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 8.57 K/9

2011 Analysis:

McGuire has met expectations in his first year of professional baseball. A highly polished college product, McGuire was sent to High-A Dunedin to succeed and he has done exactly that. His ERA is 6th in the FSL, and his 94 strikeouts rank 5th. McGuire was named a Mid-season All Star, and he has been the ace of a Dunedin pitching staff that has seen the likes of Wojciechowski, Hutchison, Jenkins, Molina, and Alvarez fill its ranks. His strong ERA is supported by strong peripheral stats, suggesting he is more than ready for a promotion to New Hampshire.

Future outlook:

As mentioned previously, McGuire has shown he can handle High-A and appears destined for Double-A New Hampshire sooner rather than later. Regardless of whether that promotion occurs late this year or out of Spring in 2012, he should spend most of the 2012 season in Double-A with the potential for a September callup if he performs well in the minors. He should compete for a rotation spot to start the 2013 season, and could be a main-stay in Toronto before June. He's unlikely to mature any more physically, so McGuire just needs to focus on continuing to learn how to pitch, particularly when his stuff isn't there.

Perfect world projection: A dependable, inning eating #3 MLB starter. McGuire lacks the top of the rotation potential of other Blue Jays prospects.

Worst case scenario: A #5 MLB starter if he fails to develop the consistency in his pitches required to thrive in the majors.

Most likely outcome: A fringe #3/#4 MLB starter. McGuire has a lot of polish and has minimal risks, so he should approach his ceiling.

#6: C Travis d'Arnaud

Name: Travis d'Arnaud
Position: Catcher
Acquired: Trade with Philadelphia in December 2009 (drafted 1st round, 2007)
Opening Day age: 22
Height/weight: 6'2", 195 lbs
Best/worst tool: Bat/speed

Scouting Report:

d'Arnaud is the most well rounded catcher in the Blue Jays farm system, as his only below average tool is his speed -- which is typically unimportant for a catcher. His bat is his best tool, as he has enough plate coverage to consistently make contact and put the ball in play to all fields. His power is developing, but is more gap power than true home run power. His offensive tools will likely result in .300, 30 double, 15-20 HR seasons in the big leagues. He is an average to above average defender, and has made improvements in recent years to both his footwork and arm behind the plate. Avoiding injury and getting consistent innings may be the biggest key to his defensive development. He's far more likely to win Silver Slugger awards than Gold Gloves.

2010 Stats: .259/.315/.411 (.726 OPS), 20 2B, 6 HR, 38 RBI, 20/63 BB/K

2010 Analysis:

His first season with the Blue Jays organization was very up and down. Playing with the High-A Dunedin affiliate, d'Arnaud started off the season on fire before suffering a back injury which caused him to miss a lot of time. Even after returning from the back injuries, he clearly wasn't the same hitter and struggled for the remainder of the year. Despite the injuries and late season struggles, he was still named as an Eastern League All Star, which speaks to his raw talent.

2011 Stats: .330/.398/.553 (.951 OPS), 23 2B, 12 HR, 42 RBI, 24/57 BB/K

2011 Analysis:

The 2011 season has been d'Arnaud's breaking out party, and has seen him jump to the twenties in most analysts mid-season prospect rankings. In addition to showing the outstanding hit tool he was known to possess but saw injuries suppress, d'Arnaud saw his power numbers jump to a 40 double, 20 HR pace -- both outstanding for a catcher, particularly one who is a solid defender. While a bit more patience would be nice, it's hard to pick apart a .951 OPS from a catcher.

Future outlook:

d'Arnaud has spent the entire 2011 season with Double-A New Hampshire, and he's likely to finish the season there as well. He is setting himself up for a start with Triple-A Las Vegas in 2012, and may see Toronto late in the year. d'Arnaud is the best and most well rounded catching prospect the Blue Jays have had in a long time, so unless Arencibia hits the cover off the ball in 2012, d'Arnaud might be taking over as the starting catcher in the 2013 season.

Perfect world projection: All-Star MLB catcher. d'Arnaud has all the tools, both offensively and defensively, to be one of the best catchers in baseball.

Worst case scenario: Average MLB starting catcher. d'Arnaud's tools give him a very high floor.

Most likely outcome: Above average MLB catcher, with All Star appearances in his prime years. Barring injury, d'Arnaud should be an exceptional catcher.

The market for Prince Fielder

With the impeding free agency of Milwaukee Brewers slugger Prince Fielder, it might be a good time to look at the type of market he will be entering, and whether or not the Toronto Blue Jays might be interested. Fielder will be 27 years old when free agency rolls around in November, and could very well be coming off an MVP caliber season. Due to his current size (5'11", ~270 lbs), his defensive deficiencies (he's been a negative UZR in 5 of his 6 seasons), and the length of contract (rumored to be seeking 8 years) he's likely to demand, National League teams can basically be ruled out on Fielder. He probably should be now, and definitely will be in the future, a designated hitter. To further narrow it down, we must look at the players each American League team is currently employing at first base and designated hitter.

Baltimore: Derrek Lee (1B), Vladimir Guerrero (DH)
Boston: Adrian Gonzalez (1B), David Ortiz (DH)
New York: Mark Teixeira (1B), Jorge Posada (DH)
Tampa Bay: Casey Kotchman (1B), Johnny Damon (DH)
Toronto: Adam Lind (1B), Edwin Encarnacion (DH)

Chicago: Paul Konerko (1B), Adam Dunn (DH)
Cleveland: Matt LaPorta (1B), Travis Hafner (DH)
Detroit: Miguel Cabrera (1B), Victor Martinez (DH)
Kansas City: Eric Hosmer (1B), Billy Butler (DH)
Minnesota: Justin Morneau* (1B), Jim Thome / Jason Kubel* (DH)

Los Angeles: Mark Trumbo / Kendry Morales* (1B), Bobby Abreu (DH)
Oakland: Connor Jackson (1B), Hideki Matsui (DH)
Seattle: Justin Smoak (1B), Adam Kennedy (DH)
Texas: Mitch Moreland (1B), Michael Young (DH)

* = currently injured

Of the 14 American League teams, 8 teams have a current opening at first base or designated hitter. Those teams are: Baltimore, New York, Tampa Bay, Toronto, Minnesota, Los Angeles, Oakland, and Seattle. Of those 8, you can quickly eliminate Tampa Bay and Oakland, as neither would ever spend the money in free agency that signing Prince Fielder would require. That leaves 6 teams, each of whom is worthy of a deeper investigation.

Baltimore: The Orioles were huge players in the Mark Teixeira sweepstakes a few years ago. That was likely due in part to their urge to appease a fan base that is tired of losing, but also because Teixeira is a Maryland native and hero-like figure in Baltimore. Their pursuits were bested by the Yankees, and since then have had a revolving door at first base and designated hitter, most recently filled by failed free agent signings Lee and Guerrero. O's owner Peter Angelos has the money to compete with anybody and the Orioles have the roster spots, so the biggest questions may be whether or not they want to further hinder their rebuild when they still have so many holes, and if they do, whether or not Fielder is willing to play long term on a team with minimal playoff hopes.

New York: There will never be a question as to whether or not the Steinbrenner family can afford a free agent, but for the first time in a long time, it's unlikely they'll show much of an interest in either of the two first baseman free agents (Fielder and Pujols). They have the rock steady Mark Teixeira locked up to play first base, and their designated hitter position has been used to cycle through their expensive, veteran hitters in need of a day off (Posada, Rodriguez, Jeter, Jones, Swisher). Additionally, they have a catching prospect in Triple-A, Jesus Montero, who is so poor defensively he is without a doubt a future 1B/DH type. Unless he is used as trade bait, the Yankees will need to keep the designated hitter spot free for when he arrives in the major leagues.

Toronto: The Blue Jays are a dark horse in the competition for the big free agent first baseman, but their interest level remains unknown due to the tight-lipped policy of the front office. The 27 year old Fielder fits into the Blue Jays timeline a lot better than the older Albert Pujols, and while they are not yet a true contender, Toronto has a young roster as well as a strong farm system and may be on the verge of October baseball. The potential addition of a 2nd Wildcard spot in each league only brings them closer. While signing players to mega contracts may not seem like Toronto's style at this point, particularly after just living through the Vernon Wells fiasco, what Toronto must realize is that Jose Bautista will be 31 at the start of next season, and if they want him to be a big part of a playoff team, they need to make their move in the next couple of years. The Rogers corporation is one of the richest ownership groups in baseball, so if GM Alex Anthopolous deems Fielder a good investment, he will have the required financial backing.

Minnesota: While Jim Thome is likely approaching retirement, it's unlikely the Twins would consider Fielder for two major reasons. First, the Twins two superstars (Morneau and Mauer) have proven to be fragile recently, and the front office might want to see Mauer start spending a lot more time at designated hitter in an attempt to protect their investment. Second, the Twins have never been major players in free agency. They typically either re-sign their own players to big deals, or trade impending free agents away for young players. Despite having a possible opening, the Twins will not be interested.

Los Angeles: The Angels are in a similar position to the Yankees in that they have a strong first baseman (Morales, when healthy) and a designated hitter position that gets cycled through veteran hitters to keep them well rested. Vernon Wells and Torii Hunter are both aging, expensive outfielders, and it's possible one may become a permanent designated hitter in the near future if the Angels want to play both Bourjos and Trout in the outfield for a stronger overall defense.

Seattle: The Mariners, like the Blue Jays, may be a dark horse in the Fielder market. They have an outstanding pitching staff anchored by King Felix and Pineda that is only going to improve over the next few seasons as their top prospects mature and reach the majors. Their offense, however, has been the Achilles heel of the team over the past few seasons, consistently ranking near the bottom in most offensive categories (2011: 29th in ISO, 30th in SLG, 30th in wOBA, 30th in wRC+, 30th in WAR). While Fielder couldn't solve those issues all on his own, he may atleast help bring the offense to respectability which, with that pitching staff, may be enough to compete in the AL West. Much like Toronto, the Mariners ownership has some substantial coin in their coffers, and has shown a willingness to spend.


Given the information we have, I can safely eliminate New York, Minnesota, and Los Angeles from the Fielder sweepstakes. That leaves Baltimore, Toronto, and Seattle in competition for his services. All three teams have a rich ownership group, which raises the question as to how much a Prince Fielder contract is worth. Fielder's agent, Scott Boras, has floated the 8/200 figure, but I can't see him getting either the term (8 years) or salary (25M). Fielder is in direct competition with Albert Pujols for suitors, and the usual suspects will not be around to drive up the price. The Yankees and Angels are doubtful to be interested, the Red Sox don't have a need, and the Mets and Dodgers are broke. Fielder may end up having to choose whether he wants security at a more reasonable salary (perhaps 6/120 or 7/140), or whether he wants to cash out big on a shorter deal (perhaps 3/75 or 4/95), because I can't see Baltimore, Toronto, or Seattle giving him both term and salary without the competition of a big market team driving both numbers upward.

If I were a betting man, I'd probably put the odds as 40% Seattle, 25% Toronto, 25% Baltimore, 10% Other.

Henderson Alvarez' rising stock

During the 2009 season, Henderson Alvarez was widely considered to be the Blue Jays #1 pitching prospect, if not their #1 prospect overall. He featured a decent low 90's fastball as well as a good changeup, but as a lanky 19 year old in the low minors, it was difficult to make any kind of informed projection on the type of pitcher he could become.

At the season wore on, then General Manager J.P. Ricciardi made a substantial trade, sending Scott Rolen to the Cincinnati Reds at the trade deadline in exchange for Edwin Encarnacion and young pitchers Josh Roenicke and Zach Stewart. Stewart, the 22 year old flame throwing right hander (selected in the 3rd round of the 2008 draft) was the prize of the deal, and as such, media and bloggers across the nation turned their attention his way. To further compound Alvarez' prospect visibility issues, late 2009 was also the timeframe for the Roy Halladay situation. Excitment was spreading over which pitching prospects the Blue Jays may receive in exchange for the good doctor, and once again Alvarez was widely ignored.

At the end of the season, J.P. Ricciardi was replaced by new GM Alex Anthopolous, and on December 16th 2009 he made the transaction that may forever define his legacy: trading Roy Halladay to the Philadelphia Phillies for Kyle Drabek, Travis d'Arnaud, and Brett Wallace (via Oakland). Drabek had been the apple in the eye of most Blue Jays fans (and the management) as the Halladay rumors circulated, and with him now in the fold, Toronto had their new #1 prospect. During the winter leading up to the 2010 season, all of the major prospect outlets released their team-by-team rankings, and despite his outstanding 2009 season Alvarez was typically placed in the 6-10 range (8th for Baseball America, 9th for Baseball Prospectus).

His prospect status was damaged in 2009, but the 2010 season nearly destroyed it. Henderson Alvarez was promoted to Dunedin as a 20 year old, and the results were subpar given the expectations he created after a fine 2009 season with the Lansing Lugnuts. Outside of an increased groundball rate, Alvarez saw all of his important stats get worse: higher opponent batting average / walk rate / home run rate, lower strikeout rate. Despite this, Alvarez was named to the World squad of the 2010 MLB Futures game, an exhibition game for top prospects to showcase themselves during All Star weekend.

With a number of high picks due to free agency and an aggressive approach at the draft, Toronto saw an influx of new, high celing prospects enter the farm system in the summer of 2010. From Alvarez' perspective, this further diminished his prospect stock, as in the winter of 2010 he was ranked outside Baseball America's Top 10, and 16th on both Baseball Prospectus' list and my own personal rankings.

Despite his struggles with High-A Dunedin in 2010, the Blue Jays front office decided to challenge Alvarez in 2011 by sending him to New Hampshire (after a quick rehab stint with Dunedin in April). He met the challenge with an outstanding first half, and was once again named as the Blue Jays representative at the MLB Futures game during All Star weekend. His improvement from the 2010 season to now goes beyond statistics (to which the improvements are substantial), as what often gets forgotten when discussing Henderson Alvarez is his age. He is in the upper minors as a 21 year old, and is still maturing as a baseball player and growing into his body. Alvarez has always been known for an unbelievable changeup, but he has taken his fastball a step further this year. What was once a 90-92 mph fastball now sits 94-96 mph and, according to his New Hampshire pitching coach Pete Walker, has touched 101 mph in starts for the Fisher Cats this season.

With such a potent 1-2 punch, one might wonder why Alvarez does not have overpowering strikeout numbers. The reason is simple; Alvarez does not possess a strong enough breaking pitch. A strong fastball-changeup combination will destroy a hitter's timing if used properly, which will cause him to be early or late on his swing, depending upon the order in which they are thrown. This will cause a lot of weak contact, which explains both the variations in opposing batting average throughout his career, as well as a consistently strong ground ball percentage. Breaking pitches (such as a slider or curveball) are the prototypical swing and miss pitches, which results in a lot of strikeouts. This is because when executed properly, the ball will start within the strikezone, but as the batter begins to swing the ball moves out of strikezone and out of the hitter's swing plane.

Henderon Alvarez' primary breaking pitch is a slider, but it is very far behind his other two offerings. If the slider can continue to develop, even to just an average offering, Alvarez would have a ferocious arsenal and the long awaited gaudy strikeout numbers would arrive. What cannot be emphasized enough when discussing Alvarez is his age. To put it into perspective, if he were born in the United States he would be a college junior. College pitchers with two plus pitches and plus command usually go in the top 10 picks of the 1st round. Prospect folks, myself included, clearly lost sight of this over the past 2 seasons and passed judgement far too early. What Alvarez has done in 2011 is start to put it together, and to fully regain his prospect sparkle and receive the attention he deserves he must continue to do so. If his slider comes around, the sky will be the limit and Alvarez will be a force to be reckoned with -- and not only in the minor leagues, he's already knocking on the door in Toronto.

Images courtesy Mark Bolton (Union Leader) and John Lott (National Post).

Midseason Report: Single-A Lansing

Team Record: 49-37 (1st in Eastern Division)
Number of team Top 15 prospects: 3 -- Marisnick, Perez, Hutchison

Similar to Dunedin, the Lansing Lugnuts have a strong roster overall despite having only 3 of the Blue Jays top 15 prospects. Top prospect or not, the offense is loaded with young players with potential, which has led to the Lugnuts being 2nd in the Midwest League in team OPS (.729). Additionally, all three Lansing outfielders made the All Star team as starters, with one playing designated hitter. The pitching has been less impressive, though they do still have a solid 3.92 team ERA, which ranks 11th in the league.

Notable hitters:

CF Jake Marisnick: .313/.380/.476 (.855 OPS), 18 2B, 4 3B, 7 HR, 55 RBI, 22 SB, 24/59 BB/K

Jake Marisnick has easily been the MVP of the Lugnuts squad thus far, and his above batting line is indicative why. Marisnick was named as a starter to the MWL All Star game, and has finally put up the numbers that his projectibility and tools suggest he's capable of. His performance has drawn the attention of most prospect aficionados, and will likely cause him to creep into Top 100 lists this coming winter.

LF Marcus Knecht: .311/.409/.507 (.917 OPS), 22 2B, 9 HR, 48 RBI, 41/72 BB/K

The Toronto native who was drafted in the 3rd round in 2010 has made a huge splash in his first full professional season. Like Marisnick, he was named to the MWL All Star team as the starter in left field due to his outstanding success at the plate (his .917 OPS is 3rd in the MWL). What has been most impressive about Knecht is his walk percentage, which is remarkable for a 20 year old.

RF Michael Crouse: .261/.344/.467 (.811 OPS). 20 2B, 5 3B, 9 HR, 47 RBI, 26 SB, 30/85 BB/K

The second Canadian in Lansing's outfield is the toolsy Michael Crouse. His style is a contrast to Knecht's, as Crouse takes an aggressive approach both at the plate and on the basepaths, and has a strong arm in right field. Also an All Star, Crouse was the Eastern Division's starting DH.

C Carlos Perez: .268/.324/.368 (.692 OPS), 12 2B, 4 3B, 2 HR, 26 RBI, 6 SB, 23/54 BB/K

Carlos Perez, Toronto's #8 prospect, has had a difficult season by his standards, though it is still decent for a catcher with such defensive prowess. While the dip in batting average isn't positive, the lack of power development and the decrease in his walk rate would have to be the two biggest disappointments of his season.

1B K.C. Hobson: .266/.371/.352 (.722 OPS), 14 2B, 3 HR, 37 RBI, 48/51 BB/K

The 20 year old Hobson has not shown the power you'd like to see out of a first base prospect, but his walk to strikeout ratio is too impressive to ignore. Hobson was drafted in the 6th round in 2009, and while it's doubtful he'll ever be a significant top 30 prospect in Toronto's system, he should be a useful piece in the organization.

Notable pitchers:

RHP Drew Hutchison: 72 IP, 68 H, 21 ER. 1 HR, 19 BB, 84 K, 2.63 ERA, 1.21 WHIP

The true ace of Lansing's staff, Hutchison recently earned a promotion to Dunedin to continue his development. However, while he was with the Lugnuts he dominated his opposition, highlighted by a 30+ consecutive scoreless inning streak, during which he made the leap to Dunedin. Hutchison was recently named to Keith Law's midseason Top 50 prospects, which speaks to just how successful and impressive Hutch has been this year.

RHP Casey Lawrence: 85.2 IP, 95 H, 36 ER, 7 HR, 17 BB, 68 K, 3.78 ERA, 1.31 WHIP

The 23 year old Lawrence was the opening day starter for Lansing this year, and he had a solid but unspectacular first half. Similar to K.C. Hobson, Lawrence is more of organizational depth than top 30 prospect material, as you would like to see more out of a 23 year old in A-ball. His biggest strength to the organization may be his ability to eat innings and lower the workload on some of the younger pitching prospects.

LHP Sean Nolin: 54 IP, 51 H, 24 ER, 5 HR, 15 BB, 55 K, 4.00 ERA, 1.22 WHIP

Drafted in the 6th round in 2010, Nolin is an imposing lefty standing at 6'5" and weighing 235 lbs. Nolin features three decent pitches -- a fastball, changeup, and curveball, and throws them will solid command. Despite not having any plus pitches (his changeup is his best pitch at above average), Nolin's ERA does not due justice to how well he has pitched, as he has strong hit, strikeout, walk, and home run numbers. Given his size it's unlikely he'll add to his fastball, so unless his secondary pitches improve dramatically he's likely organizational depth.

RHP Danny Barnes: 43.2 IP, 30 H, 14 ER, 2 HR, 12 BB, 68 K, 2.89 ERA, 0.96 WHIP

Barnes has flown under the radar since being drafted in the 35th round of the 2010 draft, but the Princeton product (yes, that Princeton) has done nothing but perform in his two years in the Blue Jays system. Barnes is a reliever with a 3/4 arm slot who throws a decent low 90's fastball as well as a changeup, curveball, and slider. After struggling against lefties in College and as a pro in 2010, his changeup has developed enough for Barnes to be used against both lefties and righties, which should improve his chances of reaching the majors.

Rest of the year outlook:

Lansing has already locked down a playoff spot, but exactly who will be on the roster when the playoffs roll around is another question. The starting rotation has already lost Drew Hutchison, and Casey Lawrence likely isn't far behind. Regardless, the strength of this Lugnuts roster has been the offense, and the fate of Lansing's three outfielders will likely determine the club's success in the playoffs. Despite all three being only 20 years old, they have proven they can handle Single-A ball and are ready for High-A. The question is whether or not they are late season promotions to Dunedin, or if they simply start there in 2012. I think it would be best for the three to stay and finish what they started with Lansing, and compete for the Midwest League championship. The three could then start 2012 in Dunedin and hopefully carry over their camaraderie and success.

#7: RHP Zach Stewart

Name: Zachary Stewart
Position: Right-handed SP
Acquired: Trade with Cincinnati in August 2009 (drafted 3rd round, 2008)
Opening Day age: 24
Height/weight: 6'2", 205 lbs
Best/worst tool: Fastball/changeup

Scouting Report:

When originally acquired from Cincinnati, Zach Stewart was acting as a reliever due to his impressive fastball - slider combination. Both pitches are plus offerings, with the fastball sitting 90-94 mph while touching as high as 97 and having sinking action. His slider, whose biggest issue is it's inconsistency, sits in the low to mid 80's and he throws it primarily to the outer half of the plate with similar horizontal and vertical break. Stewart also throws a changeup, and since Toronto shifted him to a starting role he has been asked to use it far more often than he did as a reliever. The changeup is still a work in progress pitch, as when it is working Stewart can be very dominant pitcher. However, when it is off he often completely abandons the pitch and hitters take advantage of his two pitch repetoire. This is likely a maturity/confidence issue, and it's possible it could be coached out of him. Stewart's command is above average, as his 3.25 BB/9 over the past 2 seasons can attest.

2010 Stats: 136.1 IP, 131 H, 55 ER, 13 HR, 54 BB, 106 K
1.31 GO/AO, 3.63 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, 7.00 K/9

2010 Analysis:

Zach Stewart spent the entire 2010 season with New Hampshire, his first year exclusively as a starter. While spending the year playing second fiddle to Kyle Drabek, Stewart was still impressive, albeit unspectacular. His strikeout rate was low, particularly for a 23 year old working the Eastern League with stuff like Stewart's. One possible explanation may be his focus on developing his changeup, or possibly an attempt to reduce his overall workload by pitching to contact and getting deeper into games.

2011 Stats (MiLB): 79.2 IP, 94 H, 40 ER, 5 HR, 24 BB, 59 K
1.18 GO/AO, 4.52 ERA, 1.48 WHIP, 6.67 K/9

2011 Stats (MLB): 16.2 IP, 26 H, 9 ER, 2 HR, 5 BB, 10 K
0.83 GO/AO, 4.86 ERA, 1.86 WHIP, 5.41 K/9

2011 Analysis:

Stewart has split the 2011 season between New Hampshire and Toronto, with his major league debut coming as a three game audition during late June. His overall numbers took a step back from his 2010 pitching line, which is a bit concerning considering he is repeating the level and is now 24 years old. The largest difference is his hits allowed, as his batting average against went from .255 in 2010 to .296 in 2011. This could be for a number of reasons, none of which could be known without advanced metrics or by watching the games themselves.

He made 3 starts with Toronto, with one being good (vs BAL), one being mediocre (@ DET), and one being awful (@ATL). Given the strength of the offenses he faced, the pitching lines aren't particularly surprising. He showed that he can perform as a major league starter when his changeup is working, but when it's not, such as against Atlanta, he is going to be lit up. You can't survive as a major league starter with two pitches.

Future outlook:

Zach Stewart will be 25 years old at the end of the 2011 season, so the remainder of this season and Spring Training 2012 is the time for Stewart to show what he has and that he belongs. The Blue Jays are going to have a full rotation with higher upside pitcher for the remainder of the season, so it might be best for Stewart to follow suit with Marc Rzepczynski and make the transition to a reliever. The Blue Jays have a number of veteran pitchers who could be moved at the trade deadline (Francisco, Rauch, Dotel, Frasor), which could free up bullpen positions for excess young starters like Zach Stewart.

Perfect world projection: A #3 starter, if his changeup can be consistently average.

Worst case scenario: A middle relief pitcher, as his fastball/slider/command will ensure he reaches the major leagues and can stay there.

Most likely outcome: A #5 starter on a mediocre team or a late inning reliever on a playoff contender if his changeup can atleast be a show-me pitch.

Midseason Report: High-A Dunedin

Team Record: 49-39 (2nd in North Division)
Number of team Top 15 prospects: 2 -- McGuire, Wojciechowski

Despite only having two of the Blue Jays top 15 prospects, Dunedin has a strong roster overall as the top prospects are complemented by many other young, talented prospects aspiring to reach their potential. Much like New Hampshire, the Dunedin Blue Jays have a balanced roster with a .730 OPS (3rd in FSL) and 3.87 ERA (6th in FSL).

Notable hitters:

C AJ Jimenez: .308/.361/.419 (.780 OPS), 15 2B, 3 HR, 25 RBI, 9 SB, 19/44 BB/K

Jimenez is yet another of the Blue Jays talented catching prospects, and the 21 year old has held his own in his first year with Dunedin. Despite seeing his batting average fall with each month, Jimenez still holds an impressive season slash line in a league filled with talented pitching prospects. Part of Jimenez' job has been to help develop some of the Blue Jays young pitchers, to which he has done an excellent job.

RF Justin Jackson: .274/.362/.386 (.748 OPS), 14 2B, 3 HR, 17 RBI, 7 SB, 32/63 BB/K

2011 has been a successful year for Jackson, and his above line doesn't truly do justice to how well he played over the first 2+ months of the year. Jackson maintained a .300+/.400+/.400+ line for much of the first half of the season before struggling mightily during a stretch in June, which saw his triple slash line fall to where it is now. Despite his midseason struggle, Jackson received a well deserved promotion to New Hampshire where he hopes to continue to revive his prospect stock.

3B Kevin Ahrens: .244/.326/.387 (.713 OPS), 16 2B, 8 HR, 33 RBI, 31/64 BB/K

The second of two 2007 1st round picks on the list, Ahrens has struggled in his 3rd try with the Dunedin Blue Jays. While the power and plate discipline have taken a step forward, his bat still hasn't developed as hoped, despite making the change from being a switch hitter to an exclusive right handed hitter. Ahrens is running out of time to make an impression on the Blue Jays front office.

LF Brad Glenn: .260/.314/.507 (.821 OPS), 18 2B, 17 HR, 56 RBI, 20/87 BB/K

Glenn was drafted as a college senior in 2009 and has shown power in each of his three minor league seasons, culminating with this year's 17 homers, which is good for 2nd in the FSL. Glenn is striking out far too much as a 24 year old to be considered a prospect, but he has been a nice story and is providing some meat in the middle of the Blue Jays lineup.

Notable pitchers:

RHP Deck McGuire: 92.2 IP, 80 H, 28 ER, 8 HR, 36 BB, 88 K, 2.72 ERA, 1.25 WHIP

The Blue Jays 1st round pick in 2010 has had a very successful debut in pro baseball, which is not surprising given his polish coming out of Georgia Tech. McGuire throws a number of above average pitches with solid command, which is more than enough to be dominant in High-A. McGuire's real test will come when he receives his promotion to New Hampshire and gets his first taste of upper level hitters.

RHP Asher Wojciechowski: 85.2 IP, 105 H, 50 ER, 14 HR, 24 BB, 62 K, 5.25 ERA, 1.51 WHIP

Woj has had an interesting pro debut with Dunedin in 2011. In the months of April and July he has been dominant (0.87 ERA and 1.50 ERA respectively), while in the months of May and June he has been a lamb to the slaughter (6.06 ERA and 10.62 ERA respectively). His biggest issue has been his lack of faith in his secondary offerings, relying at times exclusively on his fastball. This has led to some gaudy hit and home run totals in the middle months.

RHP Nestor Molina: 83.1 IP, 79 H, 26 ER, 7 HR, 8 BB, 93 K, 2.81 ERA, 1.04 WHIP

Molina entered 2011 as a starting pitcher for the first time since being signed as an undrafted free agent in 2006. He has always had impeccible command and decent strikeout rates, but has taken it a step further this year with an outstanding 93:8 ratio in his 83.1 innings. He will look to join his hometown friend Henderson Alvarez in New Hampshire before the season ends.

RHP Wes Etheridge: 30 SV, 43.2 IP, 31 H, 6 ER, 1 HR, 6 BB, 36 K, 1.24 ERA, 0.85 WHIP

While Etheridge is a non-prospect as a soon to be 27 year old in Dunedin, his season has been impressive enough that he deserves a mention. The small right hander has totalled 30 saves with Dunedin, which is ten ahead of the next closest pitcher (Kenny Faulk of Lakeland, with 20). What makes his season even more impressive is that entering this season he hadn't thrown a pitch in professional baseball since 2008, as he retired for 2 years to serve his lord as a Pastor.

Rest of the year outlook:

While the positional players have remained relatively stable -- with Justin Jackson's recent promotion being the only notable loss, the pitching rotation has been a bit of a revolving door in the first half of the season. Henderson Alvarez and Chad Jenkins, two of the original starters in Dunedin's rotation, have already been promoted to Double-A and it's likely that McGuire and Molina will join them at some point later this season. Lansing, Toronto's A-ball affiliate, has supplied reinforcements to the D-Jays, most notably Drew Hutchison. Casey Lawrence, another Lansing starter who in his last 4 starts has posted a combined 26IP/23H/5ER/2BB/23K pitching line (1.73 ERA, 0.96 WHIP), is likely not far behind. The Dunedin Blue Jays are in the hunt for a playoff spot, and despite all these roster moves they should be highly competitive team in their drive for the championship.

#8: C Carlos Perez

Name: Carlos Perez
Position: Catcher
Acquired: Undrafted free agent (2008)
Opening Day age: 20
Height/weight: 6'0", 193 lbs
Best/worst tool: Fielding/power

Scouting Report:

Carlos Perez is a very athletic and well rounded catching prospect. He shows plus defense as well as an outstanding arm behind the plate. He has historically been in the 40% range for caught stealing, which is even more incredible when you consider the young athletes that fill the leagues that Perez has played in. In addition to his great defensive tools, Perez has shown good bat skills in his career as well as a solid approach at the plate. Entering 2011, Perez was a career .299 hitter across three minor league seasons with a strong 102:92 BB/K ratio in 167 games. His 16 stolen bases in that period display his athleticism, but the 13 caught stealings suggest his baserunning needs some refinement. The only tool Carlos Perez has been lacking in to this point in his career is power, wih only 3 HR (48 total XBH). The bat and power should continue to improve as he grows and matures, but his defense will be what gets him to the major leagues. Anything he can do with the bat is gravy.

2010 Stats: .298/.396/.438 (.834 OPS), 11 2B, 8 3B, 2 HR, 41 RBI, 7 SB

2010 Analysis:

The 2010 season was a big step forward for Carlos Perez. He had spent 2008 and 2009 with the Blue Jays Dominican and Gulf Coast affilates, which are leagues filled with highly unpolished 16-18 year old imports. He spent the 2010 season with Auburn in the New York - Penn League, a league normally filled with top high school and young college draftees. The 19 year old Perez held his own, posting solid numbers across the board on his way to being named an All Star.

2011 Stats: .259/.319/.360 (.679 OPS), 11 2B, 4 3B, 2 HR, 25 RBI, 5 SB

2011 Analysis:

Similar to his jump in 2010, Perez was met with another substantial challenge in making the leap from Auburn to Lansing in the Midwest League. He started off strongly with an April triple slash line similar to that of his minor league career, however Perez struggled through the months of May and June, causing his overall numbers to drop off noticably. While he is still showing an above average walk percentage, it is substantially lower than his career rate, which is slightly concerning. Similar to his previous seasons, his power has been in the form of doubles and triples as opposed to home runs. However, given that he is still only 20 years old and the Midwest League is known for its pitcher, the lack of home runs is a non-issue at this point.

Future outlook:

With Arencibia in Toronto, d'Arnaud in New Hampshire, and Jimenez in Dunedin, Perez will not be rushed and is still a long way from the major leagues. He will likely follow behind Jimenez level by level, continuing his trend of taking a full season at each level as he advances. With 2011 in Lansing, that would put 2012 in Dunedin, 2013 in New Hampshire, and 2014 likely between Triple-A and Toronto. Perez' defense will keep him progressing through the minors, but it will be the development of his bat that will determine whether or not he'll be a regular or a backup once he reaches the show.

Perfect world projection: Everyday MLB catcher, possible All-Star appearances in his prime, consistent contender for Gold Glove awards.

Worst case scenario: Backup MLB catcher. Defensive tools like Perez' don't come around often.

Most likely outcome: Solid, everyday MLB catcher. If taking into account offense, defense, and baserunning, likely top-10 at his position in the majors. His most likely outcome is not far off his perfect world projection, the strength of his bat will be the biggest determining factor.

#9: RHP Aaron Sanchez

Name: Aaron Sanchez
Position: Right-handed SP
Acquired: 1st round (2010)
Opening Day age: 18
Height/weight: 6'4", 190 lbs
Best/worst tool: Fastball/command

Scouting Report:

Aaron Sanchez is a pitcher who oozes natural talent and projectibility, but is seriously lacking in polish. He features a fastball that sits in the low 90's and touches 93 mph while showing run and sink, an offering that should only improve as he matures and fills in his long, lanky frame. Sanchez' primary breaking ball is an average curveball with a 1-7 drop that he can throw for called strikes. He also throws a changeup, but he rarely uses it and the pitch needs a lot of work. Sanchez has a good mound presence, keeping his composure during rough innings and rarely having emotional outbursts. Sanchez' biggest flaw is his command, which is primarily due to inconsistency with his delivery. The command is below average now, but could improve with a few years of professional coaching.

2010 Stats: 25 IP, 23 H, 6 ER, 1 HR, 17 BB, 37 K
2.90 GO/AO, 2.16 ERA, 1.60 WHIP, 13.32 K/9

2010 Analysis:

Sanchez made 10 starts between the Blue Jays GCL affiliate and Auburn, but due to inning restrictions placed on the high draft pick he threw only 25 innings. His pitching line matched his scouting report, as he walked a lot of batters due to his below average command, and struck out a lot of batters while posting a strong ground ball ratio due to his above average fastball with movement.

2011 Stats: 10 IP, 18 H, 13 ER, 1 HR, 7 BB, 6 K
1.88 GO/AO, 11.70 ERA, 2.50 WHIP, 5.40 K/9

2011 Analysis:

Aaron Sanchez debuted in 2011 for the short season Bluefield Blue Jays in the Appalachian (Rookie) League. He has struggled across the board, with the only positive being his > 1.00 GO/AO ratio in all 3 of his appearances. With that being said, the sample size is far too small to make any real judgements on his 2011 season thus far.

Future outlook:

Aaron Sanchez is without a doubt a project prospect. He is loaded with potential and projectibility, but he has many flaws to correct over the next few years if he is to ever see the major leagues. His fastball is good now and should only improve, but he'll need to put a lot of effort into improving both his curveball and changeup, as more established hitters will sit on the fastball if that's all he can throw. Additionally, Sanchez will need to work on his pitching mechanics with professional coaches in order to establish a more easily repeatable delivery, in hopes of improving the command of all his pitches, particularly his fastball. Luckily for him, he is only turning 19 during the 2011 season. His age, in addition to the wealth of pitching prospects Toronto has in the middle/upper minors, should enable him to take his time during development without any rushing. If Sanchez makes the major leagues prior to 2015, I will be shocked. He would be 22 on Opening Day 2015, so even 2016 might be more realistic.

Perfect world projection: A fringe #2/#3 starter, if his offspeed pitches develop and he can get his command to consistently average.

Worst case scenario: The worst case for Sanchez would be that his development stalls and he never reaches the upper minors.

Most likely outcome: Sanchez is all about projectibility, so it's hard to supply a most likely outcome. As with most highschool pitchers, it's less than 50/50 that he ever sees the majors leagues.

Midseason Report: Double-A New Hampshire

Team Record: 48-33 (1st in Eastern Division)
Number of team Top 15 prospects: 5 -- d'Arnaud, Gose, Hechavarria, Stewart, Jenkins

With 5 of the Blue Jays top 15 prospects on the New Hampshire roster, it's not surprising that the Fisher Cats are in first place in their division and are well on their way to the playoffs. They roster is well rounded, with their .747 OPS ranking 4th in the Eastern League and their 3.67 ERA ranking 3rd.

Notable hitters:

C Travis d'Arnaud: .306/.380/.525 (.905 OPS), 19 2B, 10 HR, 28 RBI, 22/51 BB/K

d'Arnaud is establishing himself as the top catching prospect in the Blue Jays system, and the possible catcher of the future. While d'Arnaud has always had great well rounded tools, 2011 is the first year he has put it all together at the plate. In addition to a good approach at the plate, he is finally showing his power, with the potential for 20 HR seasons down the road feasible.

CF Anthony Gose: .258/.352/.408 (.752 OPS), 9 2B, 5 3B, 8 HR, 36 RBI, 38 SB, 36/78 BB/K

Gose has been highly scrutinized since being acquired for Brett Wallace, and 2011 has been an up and down season for him. Keeping in mind that he is 20 years old in Double-A, that should be expected. The high point for Gose was May, during which he showed all of his tools, posting an .889 OPS with 9 extra base hits, 20 walks, and 14 stole bases. April and June were much different however, with a combined OPS around .600, 9 extra base hits, and a 15/49 BB/K ratio.

SS Adeiny Hechavarria: .231/.268/.351 (.619 OPS), 17 2B, 4 3B, 5 HR, 30 RBI, 16 SB, 16/50 BB/K

Hechavarria has struggled with the bat since being signed as a Cuban defector last year. While his defense is still outstanding, Hechavarria is going to need to show more with the bat than this if he's ever going to see the major leagues. Adeiny will need a big second half if he wants to avoid repeating the Double-A level in 2012.

1B Mike McDade: .312/.357/.534 (.891 OPS), 30 2B, 13 HR, 58 RBI, 19/68 BB/K

While the standards for being a "prospect" at first base are extremely high, McDade's 2011 should atleast be putting him in consideration for the label of legitimacy. While the home run totals are modest for a 22 year old first baseman, it should be noted that his 30 doubles lead the Eastern League, 5 ahead of his nearest competition.

Notable pitchers:

RHP Zach Stewart: 75.2 IP, 84 H, 34 ER, 5 HR, 23 BB, 53 K, 4.04 ERA, 1.41 WHIP

In his second year with New Hampshire, Zach Stewart has seen his fair share of struggles. While his numbers are not as strong as 2010, they did earn him a midseason promotion to Toronto, where he held his own across 3 starts. Stewart really needs to refine his changeup, as it is easily the weakest of his three pitches and will determine his future with the organization.

RHP Joel Carreno: 90.2 IP, 61 H, 32 ER, 9 HR, 46 BB, 111 K, 3.18 ERA, 1.18 WHIP

In his first year with New Hampshire, Carreno has gone through absolutely dominant stretches. As his .191 BAA and 111 strikeouts can attest, hitters have had a lot of difficulty squaring up Carreno. For example, during the month of May Carreno pitched 31.2 innings, and allowed only 8 hits and 4 earned runs while striking out 41.

RHP Henderson Alvarez: 53.1 IP, 47 H, 20 ER, 5 HR, 13 BB, 37 K, 3.38 ERA, 1.13 WHIP

2011 has been a breakout of sorts for Henderson Alvarez. After making 2 quick starts in Dunedin as a warmup, he was promoted to Double-A where he has performed extremely well. Armed with a plus changeup and a devastating fastball that has touched 101 mph this year, Alvarez is poised for a great second half. While the strikeouts are a bit low for a guy with two outstanding pitches, they will come once his breaking ball improves enough to be thrown consistently. For now, Alvarez just generates weak ground balls by destroying his opposition's timing.

RHP Chad Jenkins: 35 IP, 32 H, 13 ER, 4 HR, 11 BB, 21 K, 3.34 ERA, 1.23 WHIP

The big 2009 1st rounder recently made the jump from Dunedin and has continued his success into New Hampshire. Armed with a heavy sinker, Jenkins' strikeout rate has been relatively low throughout his career, but he has kept a consistent groundball rate. His Independence Day start was the best of his season thus far, going 8 innings while allowing only 1 earned run.

RHP Alan Farina: 17.1 IP, 15 H, 3 ER, 2 HR, 7 BB, 16 K, 1.56 ERA, 1.27 WHIP

Farina is perhaps the Blue Jays top true relief prospect, having dominated the FSL and EL over the past two seasons. In 73 combined innings, he has allowed just 11 earned runs while striking out 90. Farina has a stature similar to that of Jason Frasor, which has led to some flyball issues.

Rest of the year outlook: The 2011 season should continue to be fruitful for New Hampshire. While Double-A can act as a spring board for pitching prospects to the majors (e.g. Drabek, Stewart, Litsch, etc), this group, save Stewart, is likely to remain in the minors for the rest of the season. Additionally, 2010 #1 draft pick Deck McGuire is likely to make the leap from Dunedin at some point this summer, further strengthening the pitching staff. The hitting should remain solid, as most of the big name hitters on New Hampshire's roster are young and will likely stay for the rest of the season. Justin Jackson, the former shortstop turned outfielder who was drafted in the supplemental round of 2007, was recently promoted from Dunedin and should provide offensive and defensive support all over the diamond.