2012 Top Prospects #21: Chad Jenkins

Name: Chad Jenkins
Position: Right-handed Pitcher
Acquired: 1st round (2009)
Opening Day age: 24
Height/weight: 6’4”/235 lbs
Best/worst tool: Fastball/changeup
Risk factor: Low
ETA: 2012

Scouting Report

Chad Jenkins is a workhorse on the mound, and very much looks the part. At the time of his draft, he weighed 225 lbs, but has grown into the 235-240 lbs range over the last couple of years. Something changed over the offseason, however, as in this picture taken in January by John Lott, Jenkins appears to have lost a ton of weight. On the mound, Jenkins features a power arsenal. He works primarily off his sinker, a plus pitch that sits in the low 90’s. The sinker has boring action against right handed batters, and has been clocked as high as 96 mph. When he reaches back for that velocity, however, the pitch shows more typical four seam action as it flattens out a bit. His second pitch is an above average slider that has flashed plus potential, sitting in the low to mid 80’s. Those two pitches make him a groundball machine, as it’s difficult to get any kind of loft on pitches that heavy. His third pitch is a changeup with some potential, but like many young pitchers, he abandons it far too easily. Jenkins will need to learn to trust the changeup if he wants to remain a starting pitcher, as left handed batters will annihilate him otherwise. His command of all three pitches is solid.

2011 Statistics and Analysis

(A+) 11 games (11 starts), 67.1 IP, 71 H, 23 ER, 3 HR, 14 BB, 44 K
4-5, 3.07 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 5.88 K/9, 3.14 K/BB, 2.04 GO/AO

(AA) 16 games (16 starts), 100.1 IP, 93 H, 46 ER, 8 HR, 27 BB, 74 K
5-7, 4.13 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 6.64 K/9, 2.74 K/BB, 1.23 GO/AO

Jenkins began 2011 where he finished 2010, with High-A Dunedin. He spent the first two months of the season there, putting together mixed results. Much like 2010, he wasn’t striking out very many batters, and was giving up a ton of base hits. Regardless, as a 23 year old, the front office obviously felt it was time to move him along to Double-A. Despite the ERA jump of more than a full run, Jenkins was a much better pitcher with the Fisher Cats. His walk rate rose, but his strikeout rate increased to a much more respectable level, likely contributing to the drop in his number of hits allowed. The groundball rate dropped, but at 1.23 it was still well above average. As a guy who focuses primarily on putting the ball in play and relying on his defense, there will always be some volatility to his ERA and WHIP statistics.

Expected 2012 Assignment: Double-A New Hampshire

Future Outlook

In January, Jenkins was one of seven prospects invited to Toronto as part of a rookie development camp, an event founded on the idea of getting potential callups a taste of big league life before they’re thrown into the fire mid-season. Obviously, Toronto thinks Jenkins is almost ready to make the leap. He should begin the year in Double-A, and could be one of the first arms called upon should an injury occur in the rotation. Due to his groundball tendencies, Jenkins might be one of the few pitching prospects who could handle Triple-A without embarrassing himself. With that being said, Toronto is probably hoping to completely avoid such assignments for any pitchers with legitimate potential.

Perfect World Projection: Inning-eating back of the rotation starter.