Could Rich Harden fit into this pitching staff?

After trading for Sergio Santos and Jason Frasor and signing Darren Oliver, the bullpen looks to be in much better shape than the version that blew a mindnumbing amount of saves last season. Those three veterans are joining a talented but fairly unexperienced middle relief group that includes Casey Janssen, Jesse Litsch, Carlos Villanueva, as well as a number of other young arms vying for the 7th and final spot. Beyond the top seven there’s three or four pitchers in the high minors who are more than ready to pitch in the big leagues, giving the team a ton of depth and flexibility.

The rotation, however, lacks that immediate depth. Ricky Romero and Brandon Morrow will lead the staff –- that much we know –- but after those two, there’s a group of question marks. Brett Cecil will be looking to rebound from a very unimpressive season in which he lost velocity and hung changeups. Henderson Alvarez, while immensely talented, will only be 21 years old on Opening Day. He’s very mature for his age as he’s been in the professional ranks for five years now, but it’s near impossible to mark down an [unofficial] rookie for 180 strong innings, regardless of how highly touted they are (see: Drabek, Kyle). The fifth spot could come down to a battle between the aforementioned Drabek and Dustin McGowan, both of whom have more questions than answers at this point in their respective careers. For Drabek, the questions are “What the hell happened last year?” to varying degrees, while for McGowan, the questions are based upon health and his lack of pitching over nearly three full seasons. Suffice to say, the rotation has a few more holes than the bullpen at this point.

With that being said, if an upgrade is to be made to the pitching staff this late in the offseason, it appears it will be to the rotation. The Blue Jays have been linked most recently to Matt Garza (which I touched on here) and Gavin Floyd. Rumors are just rumors at this point, and with the kind of deals that have been made for young starters, I’m not sure if Toronto should be too active in that trade market -– there’s no sound reasoning behind damaging the farm in a developmental year for a player who won’t be here when we’re competing for championships.

Allow me to throw a name into the ring who could help this team in the short term without having a negative impact on the long term -– Rich Harden. Prior to their January 3rd post in which they mentioned Harden is garnering interest from some teams as a reliever, Rotoworld.com hadn’t written about him since November 8th, which speaks to how quiet Harden’s offseason has been. Only 30 years old, I think he could be a valuable acquisition for a team who doesn’t expect him to make 30 starts, and will play to his strengths at this point in his career.

Velocity wise, Harden has definitely seen his stuff diminish since his prime years in his early and mid 20’s, but he still has an above average fastball that averaged 91.7 mph in 2011. He throws the occasional slider, but for the most part is a two pitch pitcher at this stage of his career. His primary offspeed pitch –- and easily his best offering –- is a plus circle changeup. Toronto got to see Harden in action twice last season, during which he struck out 19 and allowed 1 earned run over 14 innings. Needless to say he looked impressive in those starts. Even when Blue Jays hitters knew the changeup was coming they still couldn’t make contact –- the pitch can be that good when it’s on. Harden’s ERA was an unsightly 5.12 last season, but he also had a HR/FB rate and BABIP value well above his career norms. The 3.68 xFIP, 9.91 K/9, and 3.38 BB/9 are much better indicators of how well he pitched last season.

The problem with Harden throughout his entire career has been health, but as I mentioned, Toronto doesn’t need to rely upon him for 30+ starts. Harden could enter Spring Training with the club in competition for one of the final three spots in the rotation. Should he win a rotation spot, he can start until he loses his effectiveness or suffers an injury, at which point one of the young starters in the minor leagues can step in after hopefully gaining a valuable few extra months of seasoning. If he fails to make the rotation, Harden could become a valuable member of the bullpen, possibly making the occasional spot start while building trade value. His roles could overlap with those expected of Carlos Villanueva this year, but durability aside, Harden is the better pitcher and should be given the opportunity.

The upside is there with Rich Harden and, for some reason, the interest isn’t. That could play into the hands of whoever signs him, as it’s very likely he’ll require only a 1 year commitment with no more than 4M guaranteed on the deal. It’s almost dumbfounding to say, but the risk with Rich Harden at this point in his career is very low. If he flames out, you cut your losses and let a young guy take over (and if money is an “issue” with anybody, just remember how much this club is paying Mark Teahen to have a negative impact on the team). If he pitches well, he gets traded at the deadline for a valuable, controllable commodity. This is exactly the type of shrewd move that Alex Anthopolous has become known for, and given the lack of rumors linking Toronto to Harden, the possibility is certainly there.