2012 Top Prospects #23: Joel Carreno

Name: Joel Carreno
Position: Right-handed Pitcher
Acquired: Signed as undrafted free agent (2004)
Opening Day age: 25
Height/weight: 6’0”/190 lbs
Best/worst tool: Slider/command
Risk factor: Low
ETA: 2012

Scouting Report

Since debuting with the DSL Blue Jays in 2006, Carreno has made 104 starts and 5 relief appearances in the minor leagues. Despite this, his future likely lies in the bullpen. A three pitch pitcher, Carreno often falls in love with his best two pitches -- his slider and fastball -- and ignores the third. The slider is his finest offering –- flashing plus -– and clocking around 80 mph. It has very hard late bite, and can be used effectively as both a chase pitch and a backdoor breaking ball. The fastball is an average pitch velocity wise, sitting 89-91 mph, but it does have some cut and run that makes it difficult to square up. The changeup is a low 80’s offering with only an average future, but he did record his first career strikeout with it. He throws it down and away to lefties, but almost completely abandons it against right handed hitters. His command -– particularly his fastball command –- is his greatest flaw. While it doesn’t always manifest itself in walks, he frequently misses his spots, leading to some hard hit balls. At 6’0”/190 lbs, his build screams reliever in the long run.

2011 Statistics and Analysis

(AA) 24 games (23 starts), 134.2 IP, 100 H, 51 ER, 12 HR, 68 BB, 152 K
7-9, 3.41 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 10.16 K/9, 2.24 K/BB, 0.75 GO/AO

(MLB) 11 games (0 starts), 15.2 IP, 11 H, 2 ER, 1 HR, 4 BB, 14 K
1-0, 1.15 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, 8.04 K/9, 3.50 K/BB, 1.50 GO/AO

Through the entire month of May, Carreno put together a string of some of the most bizarre pitching lines I’ve ever seen. In his five starts, he went 31.2 innings, giving up only 8 hits and 4 runs. He walked 21, and struck out 41. While rare and likely to never be repeated, the line is a great indicator of how difficult his pitches can be to square up, but also how inconsistent –- bordering on poor –- his command can be at times. The 4.54 BB/9 in Double-A is indicative of that, and is a big reason why he shouldn’t be used as a starter in the major leagues. With patient lineups like Boston and New York, that BB/9 will quickly rise above 5 and Carreno will find himself out of games in the 5th.

Expected 2012 Assignment: Triple-A Las Vegas

Future Outlook

Carreno is likely the most MLB ready prospect in the top 30, highlighted by his dominant 15+ inning debut late in the season. The problem for Carreno at this point is bullpen depth. In November, he was almost a lock for one of the final 3 spots in the bullpen. Since then, however, the Blue Jays have acquired Sergio Santos, Darren Oliver, Jason Frasor, and most recently Francisco Cordero, pushing Carreno out of the top 8. He, and his left handed counterpart Luis Perez, are both likely ticketed for Triple-A Las Vegas awaiting injuries on the big league squad, regardless of how well they perform in the spring. It’s a shame, as Carreno is more than ready to be used in the 7th or 8th inning of games.

Perfect World Projection: Setup man