Saturday, January 21, 2012

2012 Top Prospects #25: John Stilson

Name: John Stilson
Position: Right-handed Pitcher
Acquired: 3rd round (2011)
Opening Day age: 21
Height/weight: 6’3”/200 lbs
Best/worst tool: Fastball/curveball
Risk factor: Medium
ETA: 2013

Scouting Report

Stilson was receiving first round grades entering his draft season thanks to the stockpile of weapons hidden in his right arm. His primary offering is a plus four-seam fastball. While it averages 92-95 mph in the rotation, it consistently sits in the high 90’s when Stilson pitches in relief. In terms of offspeed pitches, he throws a mid 80’s changeup and two breaking balls. The changeup –- a circle change -– is a plus pitch that fades down and away from left handed batters. Stilson’s two breaking balls are a slider and a curveball, but both are only average offerings. The slider clocks in the mid to high 80’s and has some good, late bite. Should Stilson make a permanent transition to the bullpen, he could scrap one of the breaking balls and focus on developing the other three pitches. The curveball would be the more likely pitch to go, as his slider complements his circle-changeup very well. Stilson has above average command of his pitch arsenal despite a violet and sometimes inconsistent delivery.

2011 Statistics and Analysis

15 games (13 starts), 91.1 IP, 75 H, 17 ER, 1 HR, 29 BB, 92 K
5-2, 1.68 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 9.07 K/9, 3.17 K/BB

Due to an injury, Stilson did not suit up for any of Toronto’s minor league affiliates in 2011. The above numbers are his Texas A&M statistics from the team’s 2011 season. His shoulder injury occurred in May, limiting his season to 91.1 innings while most college starters will compile 110-120 innings prior to the draft. In 2010, his sophomore year, Stilson served as his team’s closer, posting downright absurd numbers (0.80 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, 114 K in 79 IP). Regardless of the role, Stilson’s power arsenal has and will directly translate into gaudy strikeout totals.

Expected 2012 Assignment: High-A Dunedin

Future Outlook

Because of the shoulder injury, John Stilson’s future is very clouded. Texas A&M constantly abused his arm over the past two years, possibly causing permanent damage. Stilson was pitched on short rest, pitched before and after rain delays, and was consistently used him for 3+ innings as a reliever. Any thoughts of keeping him a starter should be out of the question, as his injury history and violent delivery almost guarantee he’d never make it to 200 innings in a season. If he’s healthy for spring training –- a huge if –- and Toronto uses him in the bullpen, Stilson could start the year in High-A Dunedin and move very quickly. Double-A by midseason wouldn’t be out of the realm of possibility. He could debut in Toronto before the summer of 2013 because, health permitting, his stuff is that good.

Perfect World Projection: All Star caliber closer

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