Winter Meetings Ahoy!

Come sunrise on Monday, we will have once again arrived at one of the most hectic and exciting times of the year for baseball fans -- the Winter Meetings. The Winter Meetings are one of the few times every year that the General Managers of all 30 teams (save for the GM-less Houston Astros) will be in the same place at the same time. The presence goes beyond just General Managers, as countless assistant GM's, farm directors, scouts, agents, beat reporters, national writers, prospect aficionados -- and even fans -- are in attendance. It is truly a four day mecca of baseball. Additionally, these meetings occur during the period of time in which those General Managers have the most roster and payroll flexibility, allowing a vast number of transactions to occur within a short period of time.

The Blue Jays General Manager, Alex Anthopolous, will enter the meetings with a ton of flexibility, but also a number of important positions to fill. The following is a breakdown of what I feel the Toronto representatives should be focusing upon next week in Dallas.

Second Base

Aaron Hill was a blackhole for nearly two seasons, and was shipped to the Arizona Diamondbacks late in the 2011 season for Kelly Johnson. Johnson played well in his 33 games with the club, hitting .270/.364/.417 (.781). The issue with Johnson is that not only is he a free agent, he's perhaps the best free agent at the second base position. KJ could easily find himself the focus of a bidding war, and price himself out of Toronto's comfort zone. Additionally, with draft picks tied to him signing elsewhere, and with draft picks becoming harder to come by, Alex Anthopolous might see more value in letting him walk.

The free agent crop behind Johnson is less than appealing (Mark DeRosa?), so if he chooses not to re-sign, the Blue Jays will have to look elsewhere for a replacement. The farm system is not an option in this regard, as despite having a number of talented middle infield prospects, none of them are ready for full time duty in the major leagues next spring. This leaves the trade market. Howie Kendrick would be the most intriguing option, but the Angels demands could make that difficult. The Tao of Stieb (@TaoofStieb on Twitter) suggests Gordon Beckham as another target. While he lacks the statistical consistency of Kendrick, the cost should be considerably lower.

The Bullpen

Six players from the April 2011 bullpen will not be with the club in April 2012. While this creates a number of opportunities, it also creates a void in the late-inning experience department. While the "closer mentality" is vastly overstated, having a couple of savy veterans in the bullpen does take some of the pressure off the younger arms. They allow the kids to step into the fire when they're ready, as opposed to being thrown into it unprepared.

Toronto has been linked to almost every closer available in both free agency and trade. While some appear to be logical matches (Huston Street, Andrew Bailey for example), others are mind-numbingly clueless connections (Jonathan Papelbon, Heath Bell, Ryan Madson). Alex Anthopolous clearly has a sound understanding of the volatility of relief pitchers, choosing instead to target pitchers who can be had on short term deals, such as Kevin Gregg, Frank Francisco, Jon Rauch, and Octavio Dotel. I firmly believe Huston Street would be the best fit for the Blue Jays, as he offers a ton of upside while having only 1 year plus an option remaining on his deal. Andrew Bailey would be another good fit, but if the rumors are true that the Athletics turned down the Reds offer of Yonder Alonso, he could be out of Toronto's price range.

Beyond a closer, Toronto could really use another experienced bullpen arm. Rich Harden, Joel Peralta, LaTroy Hawkins, and Mike Gonzalez all pitched solid 2011 seasons, and would fit very well in a 7th or 8th inning role for Toronto over the next 1-2 seasons (2nd year option?). Brad Lidge is coming off a down season and should only require a 1 year deal, possibly with incentives. There are plenty of possiblities in the relief department, and with a majority of Toronto's in-house alternatives having plenty of option years left, Alex Anthopolous has a lot to work with.

First Base / Designated Hitter

I've said it countless times before, but allow me to repeat it once more: a sub-.300 OBP from your starting first baseman is unacceptable. That is exactly the type of production that Adam Lind has given Toronto in back-to-back seasons, and is why I feel Toronto needs to look for an alternative. Edwin Encarnaction displayed a lot of promise in the second half of last season, and I have no issues with him being handed either the first base or designated hitter job next spring.

Whichever position Encarnaction isn't slated to fill should be addressed in free agency. Prince Fielder is the twinkle in the eye of most Blue Jays fans, but it's doubtful the front office will break the bank on him. Not due to lack of interest, but due to their reported reluctance to hand out six or seven year deals. Beyond Fielder and Pujols (who I don't see as a fit at all), there are a couple other solid alternatives. David Ortiz has been linked to the Blue Jays, and could fit very well in the DH role hitting behind Jose Bautista. Three years would be too much term, but two years with a club option might be amiable for both parties. Carlos Pena is another interesting alternative in free agency. He has posted similar HR and RBI numbers as Lind over the past two years, but unlike Lind has kept an OBP > .300 (.357 in 2011). He should be available on a 1 or 2 year deal. With no immediate successors in the farm system, both Ortiz and Pena could help the short term without negatively effecting the long term.

Bold prediction: My crazy prediction for the Winter Meetings doesn't actual involve the Blue Jays, but instead a player they have reportedly been connected with in the past. I can see Joey Votto being traded to the Athletics in exchange for Gio Gonzalez, Andrew Bailey, and a prospect. Furthermore, I wouldn't be surprised if Billy Beane traded Joey Votto either at the trade deadline or next offseason, in preparation of his salary jumping from 9M to 17M. Just a crazy thought, but it does sort of make sense.

The market for Prince Fielder

With the impeding free agency of Milwaukee Brewers slugger Prince Fielder, it might be a good time to look at the type of market he will be entering, and whether or not the Toronto Blue Jays might be interested. Fielder will be 27 years old when free agency rolls around in November, and could very well be coming off an MVP caliber season. Due to his current size (5'11", ~270 lbs), his defensive deficiencies (he's been a negative UZR in 5 of his 6 seasons), and the length of contract (rumored to be seeking 8 years) he's likely to demand, National League teams can basically be ruled out on Fielder. He probably should be now, and definitely will be in the future, a designated hitter. To further narrow it down, we must look at the players each American League team is currently employing at first base and designated hitter.

Baltimore: Derrek Lee (1B), Vladimir Guerrero (DH)
Boston: Adrian Gonzalez (1B), David Ortiz (DH)
New York: Mark Teixeira (1B), Jorge Posada (DH)
Tampa Bay: Casey Kotchman (1B), Johnny Damon (DH)
Toronto: Adam Lind (1B), Edwin Encarnacion (DH)

Chicago: Paul Konerko (1B), Adam Dunn (DH)
Cleveland: Matt LaPorta (1B), Travis Hafner (DH)
Detroit: Miguel Cabrera (1B), Victor Martinez (DH)
Kansas City: Eric Hosmer (1B), Billy Butler (DH)
Minnesota: Justin Morneau* (1B), Jim Thome / Jason Kubel* (DH)

Los Angeles: Mark Trumbo / Kendry Morales* (1B), Bobby Abreu (DH)
Oakland: Connor Jackson (1B), Hideki Matsui (DH)
Seattle: Justin Smoak (1B), Adam Kennedy (DH)
Texas: Mitch Moreland (1B), Michael Young (DH)

* = currently injured

Of the 14 American League teams, 8 teams have a current opening at first base or designated hitter. Those teams are: Baltimore, New York, Tampa Bay, Toronto, Minnesota, Los Angeles, Oakland, and Seattle. Of those 8, you can quickly eliminate Tampa Bay and Oakland, as neither would ever spend the money in free agency that signing Prince Fielder would require. That leaves 6 teams, each of whom is worthy of a deeper investigation.

Baltimore: The Orioles were huge players in the Mark Teixeira sweepstakes a few years ago. That was likely due in part to their urge to appease a fan base that is tired of losing, but also because Teixeira is a Maryland native and hero-like figure in Baltimore. Their pursuits were bested by the Yankees, and since then have had a revolving door at first base and designated hitter, most recently filled by failed free agent signings Lee and Guerrero. O's owner Peter Angelos has the money to compete with anybody and the Orioles have the roster spots, so the biggest questions may be whether or not they want to further hinder their rebuild when they still have so many holes, and if they do, whether or not Fielder is willing to play long term on a team with minimal playoff hopes.

New York: There will never be a question as to whether or not the Steinbrenner family can afford a free agent, but for the first time in a long time, it's unlikely they'll show much of an interest in either of the two first baseman free agents (Fielder and Pujols). They have the rock steady Mark Teixeira locked up to play first base, and their designated hitter position has been used to cycle through their expensive, veteran hitters in need of a day off (Posada, Rodriguez, Jeter, Jones, Swisher). Additionally, they have a catching prospect in Triple-A, Jesus Montero, who is so poor defensively he is without a doubt a future 1B/DH type. Unless he is used as trade bait, the Yankees will need to keep the designated hitter spot free for when he arrives in the major leagues.

Toronto: The Blue Jays are a dark horse in the competition for the big free agent first baseman, but their interest level remains unknown due to the tight-lipped policy of the front office. The 27 year old Fielder fits into the Blue Jays timeline a lot better than the older Albert Pujols, and while they are not yet a true contender, Toronto has a young roster as well as a strong farm system and may be on the verge of October baseball. The potential addition of a 2nd Wildcard spot in each league only brings them closer. While signing players to mega contracts may not seem like Toronto's style at this point, particularly after just living through the Vernon Wells fiasco, what Toronto must realize is that Jose Bautista will be 31 at the start of next season, and if they want him to be a big part of a playoff team, they need to make their move in the next couple of years. The Rogers corporation is one of the richest ownership groups in baseball, so if GM Alex Anthopolous deems Fielder a good investment, he will have the required financial backing.

Minnesota: While Jim Thome is likely approaching retirement, it's unlikely the Twins would consider Fielder for two major reasons. First, the Twins two superstars (Morneau and Mauer) have proven to be fragile recently, and the front office might want to see Mauer start spending a lot more time at designated hitter in an attempt to protect their investment. Second, the Twins have never been major players in free agency. They typically either re-sign their own players to big deals, or trade impending free agents away for young players. Despite having a possible opening, the Twins will not be interested.

Los Angeles: The Angels are in a similar position to the Yankees in that they have a strong first baseman (Morales, when healthy) and a designated hitter position that gets cycled through veteran hitters to keep them well rested. Vernon Wells and Torii Hunter are both aging, expensive outfielders, and it's possible one may become a permanent designated hitter in the near future if the Angels want to play both Bourjos and Trout in the outfield for a stronger overall defense.

Seattle: The Mariners, like the Blue Jays, may be a dark horse in the Fielder market. They have an outstanding pitching staff anchored by King Felix and Pineda that is only going to improve over the next few seasons as their top prospects mature and reach the majors. Their offense, however, has been the Achilles heel of the team over the past few seasons, consistently ranking near the bottom in most offensive categories (2011: 29th in ISO, 30th in SLG, 30th in wOBA, 30th in wRC+, 30th in WAR). While Fielder couldn't solve those issues all on his own, he may atleast help bring the offense to respectability which, with that pitching staff, may be enough to compete in the AL West. Much like Toronto, the Mariners ownership has some substantial coin in their coffers, and has shown a willingness to spend.


Given the information we have, I can safely eliminate New York, Minnesota, and Los Angeles from the Fielder sweepstakes. That leaves Baltimore, Toronto, and Seattle in competition for his services. All three teams have a rich ownership group, which raises the question as to how much a Prince Fielder contract is worth. Fielder's agent, Scott Boras, has floated the 8/200 figure, but I can't see him getting either the term (8 years) or salary (25M). Fielder is in direct competition with Albert Pujols for suitors, and the usual suspects will not be around to drive up the price. The Yankees and Angels are doubtful to be interested, the Red Sox don't have a need, and the Mets and Dodgers are broke. Fielder may end up having to choose whether he wants security at a more reasonable salary (perhaps 6/120 or 7/140), or whether he wants to cash out big on a shorter deal (perhaps 3/75 or 4/95), because I can't see Baltimore, Toronto, or Seattle giving him both term and salary without the competition of a big market team driving both numbers upward.

If I were a betting man, I'd probably put the odds as 40% Seattle, 25% Toronto, 25% Baltimore, 10% Other.