Could Rich Harden fit into this pitching staff?

After trading for Sergio Santos and Jason Frasor and signing Darren Oliver, the bullpen looks to be in much better shape than the version that blew a mindnumbing amount of saves last season. Those three veterans are joining a talented but fairly unexperienced middle relief group that includes Casey Janssen, Jesse Litsch, Carlos Villanueva, as well as a number of other young arms vying for the 7th and final spot. Beyond the top seven there’s three or four pitchers in the high minors who are more than ready to pitch in the big leagues, giving the team a ton of depth and flexibility.

The rotation, however, lacks that immediate depth. Ricky Romero and Brandon Morrow will lead the staff –- that much we know –- but after those two, there’s a group of question marks. Brett Cecil will be looking to rebound from a very unimpressive season in which he lost velocity and hung changeups. Henderson Alvarez, while immensely talented, will only be 21 years old on Opening Day. He’s very mature for his age as he’s been in the professional ranks for five years now, but it’s near impossible to mark down an [unofficial] rookie for 180 strong innings, regardless of how highly touted they are (see: Drabek, Kyle). The fifth spot could come down to a battle between the aforementioned Drabek and Dustin McGowan, both of whom have more questions than answers at this point in their respective careers. For Drabek, the questions are “What the hell happened last year?” to varying degrees, while for McGowan, the questions are based upon health and his lack of pitching over nearly three full seasons. Suffice to say, the rotation has a few more holes than the bullpen at this point.

With that being said, if an upgrade is to be made to the pitching staff this late in the offseason, it appears it will be to the rotation. The Blue Jays have been linked most recently to Matt Garza (which I touched on here) and Gavin Floyd. Rumors are just rumors at this point, and with the kind of deals that have been made for young starters, I’m not sure if Toronto should be too active in that trade market -– there’s no sound reasoning behind damaging the farm in a developmental year for a player who won’t be here when we’re competing for championships.

Allow me to throw a name into the ring who could help this team in the short term without having a negative impact on the long term -– Rich Harden. Prior to their January 3rd post in which they mentioned Harden is garnering interest from some teams as a reliever, Rotoworld.com hadn’t written about him since November 8th, which speaks to how quiet Harden’s offseason has been. Only 30 years old, I think he could be a valuable acquisition for a team who doesn’t expect him to make 30 starts, and will play to his strengths at this point in his career.

Velocity wise, Harden has definitely seen his stuff diminish since his prime years in his early and mid 20’s, but he still has an above average fastball that averaged 91.7 mph in 2011. He throws the occasional slider, but for the most part is a two pitch pitcher at this stage of his career. His primary offspeed pitch –- and easily his best offering –- is a plus circle changeup. Toronto got to see Harden in action twice last season, during which he struck out 19 and allowed 1 earned run over 14 innings. Needless to say he looked impressive in those starts. Even when Blue Jays hitters knew the changeup was coming they still couldn’t make contact –- the pitch can be that good when it’s on. Harden’s ERA was an unsightly 5.12 last season, but he also had a HR/FB rate and BABIP value well above his career norms. The 3.68 xFIP, 9.91 K/9, and 3.38 BB/9 are much better indicators of how well he pitched last season.

The problem with Harden throughout his entire career has been health, but as I mentioned, Toronto doesn’t need to rely upon him for 30+ starts. Harden could enter Spring Training with the club in competition for one of the final three spots in the rotation. Should he win a rotation spot, he can start until he loses his effectiveness or suffers an injury, at which point one of the young starters in the minor leagues can step in after hopefully gaining a valuable few extra months of seasoning. If he fails to make the rotation, Harden could become a valuable member of the bullpen, possibly making the occasional spot start while building trade value. His roles could overlap with those expected of Carlos Villanueva this year, but durability aside, Harden is the better pitcher and should be given the opportunity.

The upside is there with Rich Harden and, for some reason, the interest isn’t. That could play into the hands of whoever signs him, as it’s very likely he’ll require only a 1 year commitment with no more than 4M guaranteed on the deal. It’s almost dumbfounding to say, but the risk with Rich Harden at this point in his career is very low. If he flames out, you cut your losses and let a young guy take over (and if money is an “issue” with anybody, just remember how much this club is paying Mark Teahen to have a negative impact on the team). If he pitches well, he gets traded at the deadline for a valuable, controllable commodity. This is exactly the type of shrewd move that Alex Anthopolous has become known for, and given the lack of rumors linking Toronto to Harden, the possibility is certainly there.

Winter Meetings Ahoy!

Come sunrise on Monday, we will have once again arrived at one of the most hectic and exciting times of the year for baseball fans -- the Winter Meetings. The Winter Meetings are one of the few times every year that the General Managers of all 30 teams (save for the GM-less Houston Astros) will be in the same place at the same time. The presence goes beyond just General Managers, as countless assistant GM's, farm directors, scouts, agents, beat reporters, national writers, prospect aficionados -- and even fans -- are in attendance. It is truly a four day mecca of baseball. Additionally, these meetings occur during the period of time in which those General Managers have the most roster and payroll flexibility, allowing a vast number of transactions to occur within a short period of time.

The Blue Jays General Manager, Alex Anthopolous, will enter the meetings with a ton of flexibility, but also a number of important positions to fill. The following is a breakdown of what I feel the Toronto representatives should be focusing upon next week in Dallas.

Second Base

Aaron Hill was a blackhole for nearly two seasons, and was shipped to the Arizona Diamondbacks late in the 2011 season for Kelly Johnson. Johnson played well in his 33 games with the club, hitting .270/.364/.417 (.781). The issue with Johnson is that not only is he a free agent, he's perhaps the best free agent at the second base position. KJ could easily find himself the focus of a bidding war, and price himself out of Toronto's comfort zone. Additionally, with draft picks tied to him signing elsewhere, and with draft picks becoming harder to come by, Alex Anthopolous might see more value in letting him walk.

The free agent crop behind Johnson is less than appealing (Mark DeRosa?), so if he chooses not to re-sign, the Blue Jays will have to look elsewhere for a replacement. The farm system is not an option in this regard, as despite having a number of talented middle infield prospects, none of them are ready for full time duty in the major leagues next spring. This leaves the trade market. Howie Kendrick would be the most intriguing option, but the Angels demands could make that difficult. The Tao of Stieb (@TaoofStieb on Twitter) suggests Gordon Beckham as another target. While he lacks the statistical consistency of Kendrick, the cost should be considerably lower.

The Bullpen

Six players from the April 2011 bullpen will not be with the club in April 2012. While this creates a number of opportunities, it also creates a void in the late-inning experience department. While the "closer mentality" is vastly overstated, having a couple of savy veterans in the bullpen does take some of the pressure off the younger arms. They allow the kids to step into the fire when they're ready, as opposed to being thrown into it unprepared.

Toronto has been linked to almost every closer available in both free agency and trade. While some appear to be logical matches (Huston Street, Andrew Bailey for example), others are mind-numbingly clueless connections (Jonathan Papelbon, Heath Bell, Ryan Madson). Alex Anthopolous clearly has a sound understanding of the volatility of relief pitchers, choosing instead to target pitchers who can be had on short term deals, such as Kevin Gregg, Frank Francisco, Jon Rauch, and Octavio Dotel. I firmly believe Huston Street would be the best fit for the Blue Jays, as he offers a ton of upside while having only 1 year plus an option remaining on his deal. Andrew Bailey would be another good fit, but if the rumors are true that the Athletics turned down the Reds offer of Yonder Alonso, he could be out of Toronto's price range.

Beyond a closer, Toronto could really use another experienced bullpen arm. Rich Harden, Joel Peralta, LaTroy Hawkins, and Mike Gonzalez all pitched solid 2011 seasons, and would fit very well in a 7th or 8th inning role for Toronto over the next 1-2 seasons (2nd year option?). Brad Lidge is coming off a down season and should only require a 1 year deal, possibly with incentives. There are plenty of possiblities in the relief department, and with a majority of Toronto's in-house alternatives having plenty of option years left, Alex Anthopolous has a lot to work with.

First Base / Designated Hitter

I've said it countless times before, but allow me to repeat it once more: a sub-.300 OBP from your starting first baseman is unacceptable. That is exactly the type of production that Adam Lind has given Toronto in back-to-back seasons, and is why I feel Toronto needs to look for an alternative. Edwin Encarnaction displayed a lot of promise in the second half of last season, and I have no issues with him being handed either the first base or designated hitter job next spring.

Whichever position Encarnaction isn't slated to fill should be addressed in free agency. Prince Fielder is the twinkle in the eye of most Blue Jays fans, but it's doubtful the front office will break the bank on him. Not due to lack of interest, but due to their reported reluctance to hand out six or seven year deals. Beyond Fielder and Pujols (who I don't see as a fit at all), there are a couple other solid alternatives. David Ortiz has been linked to the Blue Jays, and could fit very well in the DH role hitting behind Jose Bautista. Three years would be too much term, but two years with a club option might be amiable for both parties. Carlos Pena is another interesting alternative in free agency. He has posted similar HR and RBI numbers as Lind over the past two years, but unlike Lind has kept an OBP > .300 (.357 in 2011). He should be available on a 1 or 2 year deal. With no immediate successors in the farm system, both Ortiz and Pena could help the short term without negatively effecting the long term.

Bold prediction: My crazy prediction for the Winter Meetings doesn't actual involve the Blue Jays, but instead a player they have reportedly been connected with in the past. I can see Joey Votto being traded to the Athletics in exchange for Gio Gonzalez, Andrew Bailey, and a prospect. Furthermore, I wouldn't be surprised if Billy Beane traded Joey Votto either at the trade deadline or next offseason, in preparation of his salary jumping from 9M to 17M. Just a crazy thought, but it does sort of make sense.