Friday, November 18, 2011

How sexy are Toronto's new digs?

Very sexy. When news broke a few months ago that the Blue Jays would be undergoing a dramatic overhaul of both the club's logo and uniforms, I was excited but nervous at the same time. Changing the logo and/or uniform of a professional sports team is a big deal, as it can either inspire or cripple the enthusiasm of the fanbase. In this case, that fanbase is all of Canada. I was excited because I had grown tired of the look of the current uniforms. They had single handedly turned the club from "The Blue Jays" into "The Jays", a name that sounds far too childish to be that of a professional sports team. Furthermore, the 2004 re-design chose modern over timeless, which caused the logo and jerseys to get progressively cheesier as the years wore on. The modern classification is always changing as society and culture fluidly move. "The Reason" by Hoobastank was the #1 song on the Billboards in 2004. Seven years later, that song is neither modern nor timeless, it falls into the same weird, fringy category that the Blue Jays old logo and jerseys were falling into.

While many fans were enamored by the powder blue colored jerseys that the club wore on "Flashback Friday" events over the past few years -- and wanted the new jerseys to look similar -- I was much more interested in seeing the Blue Jays go for more of a Texas Rangers look. I have always felt that the Rangers had one of the best looking uniforms in all of baseball, and it was due in large part to their deep blue hats and jerseys contrasting perfectly with the clean, lightly shaded pants. It is a fresh, classy look that works well now and should also age quite well. Much to my pleasure, Toronto chose a jersey (though it is considered the "alternate") that rocks the royal blue in a most sexy and badass manner, as modelled by both Ricky Romero and Brett Lawrie at today's unveiling.



Of the three game jerseys that were unveiled, the royal blue alternate is easily my favorite, and according to my twitter feed, that opinion is shared through much of the fanbase and the rest of the baseball world. I expect jersey sales to clearly reflect this favoritism, and with the season still 4+ months away, I hope the front office will take notice and once again select the fan-friendly route by choosing to wear these jerseys in at least 40 or 50 games throughout the season.



The remaining two game uniforms -- the all-white home and all-grey road -- also look quite sharp. I'm leaning towards liking the home uniform more than the road, but that might be at least partially attributed to the fact that Jose Bautista wore it at the unveiling, and he rocks a uniform a lot better than Adam Lind does (the batting helmet certainly didn't help).

All in all, it's hard to argue this re-design was anything less than a colossal success. On Chris Creamer's site (www.sportslogos.net), the new logo has earned a rating of 9.7/10, with 263 votes cast thus far. Not only was the re-design itself outstanding, but the timing of it was almost perfect. After years and years of failure, optimism once again is warming the hearts of Blue Jays fans from coast to coast. We have a brilliant General Manager, a deep and experienced front office, a young and talented MLB roster, and arguably the #1 farm system in all of baseball. Now, to go along with all of the excellent personnel, we have incredibly sharp uniforms to wear entering the first season in baseball history where 3rd place in the AL East could earn a playoff spot. Things are on the rise for baseball in Canada, and it's only going to get better.

Wednesday, November 16, 2011

The Huston Street business


For the first time this offseason, the Blue Jays are reportedly interested in a closer with whom I also have some interest -- Huston Street. Despite seemingly being around forever (he's been an MLB regular since 2005), Street only turned 28 years old in August of this past season. He's played for two different teams in his seven year major league career. The first four years (2005 to 2008) came with the Oakland A's, where he was drafted in the 1st round of the 2004 draft. After the 2008 season, he was traded with a package of other players to the Colorado Rockies in exchange for Matt Holliday. He has spent the last three years (2009 to 2011) with those Rockies, working primarily as the closer when he wasn't on the disabled list, an issue he dealt with frequently in Colorado.

His Oakland A's career was strong in all facets, though it was likely highlighted by his debut rookie season (2005) in which he won the American League Rookie of the Year award. Statistically speaking, 2006 was his best, as he produced 2.4 WAR despite a 3.31 ERA. His season was powered by an impressive 67-to-13 strikeout to walk ratio and only 4 home runs allowed, two traits Street has carried through his entire career. Since being traded to Colorado, Street has seen his homerun rate increase (almost entirely due to making the move from The Coliseum to Coors Field), though outside of 2011 (14.5% HR/FB) his homerun rate has still been better than league average.

Street doesn't overpower hitters, but he has command of three good pitches. After working off a four-seam fastball in the early part of his career, Street has recently switched to a two-seam fastball. This was most likely an attempt to generate more movement and to avoid the homerun ball while playing in the high altitude of Coors Field. The two-seamer averages 90 mph (touching 93 mph) and has strong vertical drop and horizontal movement. At 56.7% of his pitches thrown the past two seasons, it is his go-to pitch. His primary breaking ball is a swing-and-miss slider. The pitch averages 83 mph and shows late break, making it difficult to square up. His third pitch is a changeup that sits 8-9 mph below his fastball. Street does not throw a traditional changeup, he instead throws a circle-change that has nearly equal vertical drop and horizontal movement, floating away from left handed hitters. The circle grip pushes the ball while a traditional changeup shows predominantly vertical drop. As mentioned, Street has plus-plus command, putting together a career 2.29 BB/9. Perhaps harnessing his inner Texan, Street is a warrior on the mound, showing nerves of steel and rarely losing his cool even under the most strenuous circumstances. Mechanically, Street throws from a 3/4 arm slot and has a sound, repeatable delivery that generates consistent release points on all of his pitches.



Street signed a 3 year, 22.5M extension with Colorado prior to the 2010 season, which now has one year remaining at 7.5M. The contract also includes a 9M player option for 2013, with a 0.5M buyout. This is the main reason why Colorado is looking to move Street, as their front office believes that with Rafael Betancourt and others, they can maintain a strong back end of the bullpen without paying one player this much money. At 1 year, 8M (buyout included) or 2 years, 16.5 (option picked up), Huston Street is a much better financial investment than any big-name closer on the market, and if healthy would likely perform better than every free agent closer not named Jonathan Papelbon. The Bill James handbook projects a 2.74 ERA, 3.08 FIP 2012 season for Street, which would be exceptional numbers in any bullpen.

Colorado's initial asking price may be steep, but it's doubtful Toronto would have to fork over any of their top 4 prospects. A player in the 6-10 range (which is the equivalent of a 3-5 prospect in many systems) or a "B" prospect, is the most likely scenario. Players like Deck McGuire or Nestor Molina could greatly interest Colorado, as they have both shown good (or in Molina's case, outstanding) command, while posting solid groundball rates -- both of which are important traits in any future Rockies pitcher. McGuire and Molina are also close enough to the majors that at least some of the prospect risk is diminished, as developed Double-A pitchers are far safer acquisitions than a projectible Low-A pitcher. If the Rockies would prefer a package deal instead of a 1-for-1, the Blue Jays could oblige, as Toronto boasts one of the deepest farm systems in baseball. Perhaps a sinkerballer like Chad Jenkins and a future back of the 'pen arm like Asher Wojciechowski would interest them.

Jonathan Papelbon is off the market, and it's possible most teams are sitting in the proverbial bushes waiting for other teams to make a move before pouncing on their desired target. Toronto would be wise to avoid falling into this market stagnation however, as demand could skyrocket as supply diminshes, forcing the club to offer more than it is comfortable. Additionally, an acquistion of a sure-fire closer like Huston Street could force the preceding closer, Type-A free agent Frank Francisco, to decline arbitration and net the Blue Jays two extra draft picks, assuming the new Collective Bargaining Agreement does not squelch that rule for the upcoming draft. Blue Jays General Manager Alex Anthopolous has openly stated he prefers to spend money over giving term, and Huston Street is the perfect way to get a good closer without being locked into a 3 or 4 year deal.

Sunday, November 13, 2011

AFL Update: November 13th


Over a month into the AFL season, it's time to take a look at how Toronto's farmhands have performed down with the Phoenix Desert Dogs

CF Anthony Gose (21, 2011 team: Double-A New Hampshire)
.255/.359/.455 (.814 OPS), 5 2B, 4 3B, 3 HR, 19 RBI, 7 SB, 13/37 BB/K

Twenty-seven games into his AFL career, Anthony Gose is putting together a batting line quite reminiscent to that of his 2011 regular season (.253/.349/.415). The most significant difference is the slugging, which shouldn't come as much of a surprise given the hitter-friendly (or rather, pitching-poor) AFL environment. He's still striking out far too much (37 K's in 27 games after 154 K's in 137 Double-A games), but the power is really coming together. A year ago, Anthony Gose posting a .200 ISO would seem like a laughable proposal -- but he's done exactly that with the Desert Dogs.

SS Adeiny Hechavarria (22, 2011 team: Double-A New Hampshire)
.250/.308/.444 (.752 OPS), 3 2B, 4 3B, 1 HR, 8 RBI, 1 SB, 6/17 BB/K

As mentioned a few days ago, Adeiny Hechavarria is having a decent AFL season thus far, but it's not enough to shake my fear that he might never become an average offensive shortstop. There's decent power potential here, and more importantly he's showing some improved plate discipline. Adeiny's biggest issue is making consistent, solid contact, a problem he's clearly struggling with in the AFL as well.

3B Kevin Ahrens (22, 2011 team: High-A Dunedin)
.259/.330/.395 (.725 OPS), 8 2B, 0 3B, 1 HR, 12 RBI, 1 SB, 9/22 BB/K

Like Anthony Gose, Kevin Ahrens is hitting at nearly an identical clip to that of his regular season (.725 OPS with Phoenix, .723 OPS with Dunedin). In Ahrens' case, this is quite promising. Ahrens spent the entire season in High-A, and with the Desert Dogs, he is facing veteran pitchers who hail from as high up as Triple-A. Over the last few seasons he has shown consistently improving power and plate discipline, but his bat skills have failed to show any significant improvement. Hopefully the AFL experience will better prepare him for a Double-A assignment next season.

C Yan Gomes (24, 2011 team: Double-A New Hampshire)
.229/.351/.271 (.622 OPS), 2 2B, 0 3B, 0 HR, 3 RBI, 0 SB, 7/15 BB/K

Yan Gomes has decent power and receiving tools, but he has never shown enough to be considered a true prospect, particularly in a catching-rich system like Toronto's (Arencibia, d'Arnaud, Jimenez, Perez, etc). The Desert Dogs have used a revolving door at catcher, with Gomes splitting time with Roberto Perez (CLE) and Ryan Ortiz (OAK). As such, he's seen only 48 at-bats.

RHP Chad Beck (26, 2011 teams: Double-A New Hampshire, Triple-A Las Vegas)
8 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 0 HR, 1 BB, 5 K, 0.00 ERA, 0.38 WHIP, 0.73 GO/AO

Chad Beck started the AFL season with Phoenix, but has since been shut down, likely due to a Toronto-enforced innings limit (142 MiLB IP, 2.1 MLB IP, 8 AFL IP = 152.1 IP). While he was with the Desert Dogs, however, he was absolute dynamite, allowing only 3 base runners in eight innings of work. The AFL was likely a final test for Beck as he readies himself for a bullpen role in the major leagues next year.

LHP Evan Crawford (25, 2011 team: Double-A New Hampshire)
15.2 IP, 13 H, 6 ER, 0 HR, 3 BB, 14 K, 3.45 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 2.56 GO/AO

The left handed Crawford is coming off consecutive strong seasons in the Blue Jays minor leagues, both of which have come since he made the conversion to relief pitching. He has carried over that success to the AFL, showing strong command and groundball tendencies while maintaining an outstanding strikeout rate. He's no top prospect, but he does have big league potential, perhaps as soon as next season.

RHP Wes Etheridge (27, 2011 team: High-A Dunedin)
6.2 IP, 7 H, 2 ER, 0 HR, 4 BB, 3 K, 2.70 ERA, 1.65 WHIP, 1.50 GO/AO

After setting a Dunedin saves record with 32, Wes Etheridge has struggled to continue the success he experienced in High-A with the Desert Dogs. In Dunedin, Etheridge owned the strikezone, putting together a 38/7 strikeout to walk ratio across his 47.2 innings. With Phoenix, he has already walked 4 batters in his 6.2 innings, creating an ugly WHIP despite a sharp looking ERA.

LHP Aaron Loup (23, 2011 team: High-A Dunedin)
15.1 IP, 14 H, 8 ER, 1 HR, 1 BB, 16 K, 4.70 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, 1.31 GO/AO

Almost like a mirror opposite of Etheridge, Aaron Loup has put together fantastic secondary statistics while producing a mediocre ERA. His strikezone control has been impeccable, with a 16/1 strikeout to walk ratio, and despite seemingly living in and around the strikezone, he is still allowing less than a hit per inning. The 2009 draftee isn't much of a prospect, but he is likely garnering the attention of the front office with this performance, and may earn himself an upper minors assignment.