Matt Garza's Trade Value

Regardless of what Cubs General Manager Theo Epstein may say, Matt Garza is available through trade, and with Trevor Cahill and Matt Latos already wearing new uniforms, it's more than likely he's the best starting pitcher available. Due to their desire for pitching and their wealth of moveable prospects, Toronto has been one of the teams most frequently linked to Garza, and rightfully so -- he would look outstanding alongside Ricky Romero and Brandon Morrow in the top half of a rotation. What is distressing me the most, however, is the prospects -- or rather packages of prospects -- that are reportedly in play in the discussions.

I keep trying to remind myself that it's Toronto we're dealing with here, and this team has a strict policy against releasing any kind of information to the media. So while Cubs writers and reporters keep throwing around names like Henderson Alvarez, Noah Syndergaard, Jake Marisnick, Anthony Gose, Deck McGuire and so on as "good fits", such speculation should be taken with a grain of salt. Still, it bothers me.

Three big name starting pitchers have been traded this offseason -- Matt Latos, Trevor Cahill, and Gio Gonzalez -- but none of those situations were drastically similar to that of Matt Garza. In terms of age and service time, the differences are pretty huge.

Trevor Cahill
- 2012 Opening Day age: 24
- Service time: 3 years
- Under contract through 2015 (4 years, 28.7M remaining) with club options for 2016 (13M, 0.3M buyout) and 2017 (13.5M, 0.5M buyout)
- 2011 WARP: 0.7
- Traded to ARZ for RHP Jarrod Parker, RHP Ryan Cook, OF Collin Cowgill

Matt Latos
- 2012 Opening Day age: 24
- Service time: 2 years, 79 days
- Under team control through 2015
- 2011 WARP: 2.5
- Traded to CIN for 1B Yonder Alonso, C Yasmani Grandal, RHP Edison Volquez, RHP Brad Boxberger

Gio Gonzalez
- 2012 Opening Day age: 26
- Service time: 2 years, 162 days
- Under team control through 2015
- 2011 WARP: 2.4
- Traded to WSH for RHP A.J. Cole, RHP Brad Peacock, C Derek Norris, LHP Tom Milone

Matt Garza
- 2012 Opening Day age: 28
- Service time: 4 years, 149 days
- Under team control through 2013, 2012 salary > 5.95M
- 2011 WARP: 2.9
- Traded to ???

In comparison to the other three, Matt Garza is the oldest by 2 years, has the most service time (and therefore the least team control), and will have the highest salary by far in 2012. Arbitration figures have yet to be exchanged, but Garza will likely be seeking an 8M contract after earning nearly 6M while putting together his best statistical season with the Cubs. Without an extension being signed, Garza is likely to command close to 20M over his 2 years of control, after which he would become a free agent. So the question that needs to be asked is, how much should a team be willing to give up in a trade so that they can pay Matt Garza 20M for the next 2 years, with no guarantees after that? In my opinion the service time is the biggest factor, and therefore it should certainly be less than what the Diamondbacks, Reds, and Nationals paid for their pitchers. In fact, I think the best comparison for compensation is a player that Blue Jays fans know very well.

Shaun Marcum
- 2011 Opening Day age: 29
- Service time: 4 years, 128 days
- Under team control through 2012
- 2010 WARP: 3.1
- Traded to MIL for 3B Brett Lawrie

At the time of his trade, Marcum was roughly a year older than Garza despite having very similar service times. They both had two years left of team control, and produced nearly identical WARP values in the season prior to being traded. One big difference between the two was salary, as while Garza is set to receive a big raise on his 5.85M salary, Marcum made only 0.85M in 2010, and settled with the Brewers for 3.95M in 2011. However, the biggest difference between the two is their injury histories, which cannot be disregarded. For Garza, he's been placed on the disabled list twice in his career, once in 2008 and once in 2011. Both injuries were to his elbow, but one was simply a bruise while the other was nerve inflammation. He missed a total of 35 days across the two DL stints. For Marcum, the injury file is a bit thicker. In the summer of 2008, he spent 33 days on disabled list due to a strain in his pitching elbow. The injury was reaggravated in September, forcing him to go under the knife for Tommy John surgery, wiping out his entire 2009 season. He spent another 16 days on the DL in 2010 for elbow inflammation, but thankfully on this occasion it was to his non-throwing arm.

With this in mind, it's clear that while their team control and production were similar, Marcum's risk factor was much higher and outweighed his favorable salary, diminishing his trade value. In exchange for Marcum, Toronto received a prospect by the name of Brett Lawrie, who was ranked as baseball's 40th best prospect by Baseball America, and 57th by Baseball Prospectus.

With that ranking in mind, the player most similar in Toronto's farm system might be Anthony Gose or Jake Marisnick, as they're both position players likely to fall somewhere in the 30-60 range of prospect lists. They would also fill the reported need by Chicago of a young center fielder, though I'm not sure what that says about their current #1 prospect, a center fielder by the name of Brett Jackson. If the Cubs were interested in a pitcher as the main piece of a Matt Garza deal (which frankly would make more sense), Noah Syndergaard, Justin Nicolino, Aaron Sanchez, Drew Hutchison, or Deck McGuire would be good targets. The first three have the most upside, but McGuire and Hutchison are much closer to the big leagues and have far lower risk factors.

All of those prospects would be in play, but most of the 2 or 3 for 1 deals that Theo Epstein will be peddling should be out of the question. It's almost guaranteed that all of those prospects will be on top 100 lists, and shouldn't be packaged together for a player like Garza -- the service time (or lack thereof) is too big of a road block. The best deal I could justify for the Cubs would be one of Marisnick and Gose, plus Deck McGuire. Any package deal that includes one of the center fielders plus one of the high upside arms (Syndergaard, Nicolino, Sanchez, Hutchison) is too much for my tastes, particularly for a team like Toronto who doesn't have immediate playoff aspirations. Had Toronto signed Prince Fielder the situation would be different, but with the currently assembled roster, Garza falls under "want" not "need".

Blue Jays Positional Primer: Corner Outfield

Inspiration for the Blue Jays Positional Primer series comes from Jason Parks of Baseball Prospectus. Over the course of the second half of the season, Jason examined the prospects in the entire minor leagues on a position-by-position basis, giving insight into players both within and well outside the top 100 rankings.

While the sample size of one team is vastly inferior to that of the entire minor leagues, I feel Toronto has enough depth in the farm -- particularly in the low minors -- that such a series could provide some insight into prospects that Blue Jays fans aren't as familiar with as they should be. This is the sixth installment of an eight part series that will examine catcher, first base, middle infield, third base, center field, corner outfield, right handed pitcher, and left handed pitcher. The middle infield and corner outfield lists are included as there's really no such thing as a second base or left field prospect, they're just shortstops and center/right fielders who couldn't handle the defensive demands and get moved to the easier defensive position as they age. It should be noted that -- outside of the Leader of the Pack, who is the #1 for the position -- these are not necessarily progressive rankings of the prospects.

Part I -- Blue Jays Positional Primer: Catcher
Part II -- Blue Jays Positional Primer: First Base
Part III -- Blue Jays Positional Primer: Middle Infield
Part IV -- Blue Jays Positional Primer: Third Base
Part V -- Blue Jays Positional Primer: Center Field
Part VII -- Blue Jays Positional Primer: Right-handed Pitcher
Part VIII -- Blue Jays Positional Primer: Left-handed Pitcher

Leader of the Pack

Christopher Hawkins –- 2011 team: Rookie-class Bluefield
242 AB, .318/.375/.492 (.866 OPS), 15 2B, 6 3B, 5 HR, 52 RBI, 14 SB, 22/46 BB/K

Originally announced as a shortstop in the 2010 draft, Hawkins has since moved to third base and subsequently to the outfield, where he manned left for the Bluefield Blue Jays in 2011. Hawkins was a 3rd round pick for Toronto, and signed early enough to play 46 games for the Gulf Coast Blue Jays in his draft season, a rare thing to see from a highschool player selected early. Hawkins is the first of four Toronto Top 30 prospects to make the corner outfield positional primer.

Switching defensive positions early in a career is often a bad sign. Moving twice from shortstop (a high demand defensive position) to third base (a medium demand defensive position) to left field (a low demand defensive position) is even worse. It’s not that Hawkins isn’t athletic; he just lacks the smoothness and grace required for an infield position. His six triples and 14 stolen bases in 68 games can attest to his above average running ability and athleticism. His power is fringe above average, but his 15 HR ceiling certainly looks more impressive from shortstop than it does in left field. Hawkins best tool, however, is his bat. He has excellent pitch recognition and his strong build (6’2”, 195 lbs) allows him to generate good bat speed, lining balls to all fields. There is still some belief he could play center field due to his borderline plus calibre arm, but with the wealth of centerfielders in Toronto’s system already, Hawkins should be kept in left and allowed to work on the development of his swing.

Hawkins killed the Appalachian League as 19/20 year old, and now has two years worth of short season experience under his belt. It’s probably time for Hawkins to make the leap to full season ball with the Lansing Lugnuts, as he is Toronto’s most experienced corner outfielder in the low minors and has the approach/maturity combination to handle any of the ups and downs the Midwest League might throw at him.

The Question Mark

Moises Sierra –- 2011 team: Double-A New Hampshire
495 AB, .277/.342/.436 (.778 OPS), 19 2B, 3 3B, 18 HR, 67 RBI, 16 SB, 39/93 BB/K

An international free agent signee in late 2005, Sierra recently completed his sixth season in the Blue Jays organization despite only turning 23 years old in late September. His first four seasons followed a path typical of young Dominican prospects, as he spent two years in short season leagues –- one in the Dominican League, followed by one in the Gulf Coast League. In 2008 he made the leap to full season ball with Single-A Lansing, and in 2009 he established his prospect status, hitting .292/.360/.399 (.759) in 118 games between High-A Dunedin and Double-A New Hampshire -– two leagues that are often difficult to hit in.

Sierra’s career got completely sidetracked in 2010, which leads to his status as the corner outfield’s biggest question mark. He played only 20 total games that season due to a couple of very significant injuries. First, he suffered a microfracture in his shin early in the season, forcing him to miss almost three full months. Later, not long after returning, he suffered a broken hamate bone. The hamate is a small bone near the base of the hand that usually takes 4-6 weeks for the bone to heal, but the damage to the player’s power often takes much longer to recover from. Sierra entered 2011 healthy for the first time in years, and took an aggressive assignment in stride, putting together the solid all-around line seen above.

His best tool is his arm, which is easily the best of any of Toronto’s outfield prospects. It’s at least a 70 tool, and has likely received more than a few 80’s from scouts in attendance of his games. His fielding skills in right field are solid, but his arm is so good it would be waste to try him elsewhere. His power took a huge step forward in 2011, as he doubled his previous career high in home runs. At 6’0”, 225 lbs, it’s possible there is potential for further power growth. His bat tool is fringe average-above average, but his much improved plate discipline allows it to play up. He has stolen 10+ bases in four seasons which is indicative of his above average raw speed, but his 14 caught stealing in 2011 suggest he needs some refinement in his base running skills. With a Triple-A Las Vegas assignment in 2012, Sierra could really go off.

Remember the Name

Marcus Knecht –- 2011 team: Single-A Lansing
439 AB, .273/.377/.474 (.851 OPS), 34 2B, 3 3B, 16 HR, 86 RBI, 4 SB, 67/124 BB/K

Born in Toronto, Knecht followed a different path to affiliated ball than most. Knecht was originally drafted out of high school by the Milwaukee Brewers in the 23rd round of the 2008 draft, but instead chose to fulfill his commitment to Oklahoma State. His university of choice did not show him the same commitment, as they gave him only 12 at-bats in his freshman season. Knecht decided to take his talents elsewhere, transferring to nearby Connors State Junior College. The move paid off, as Knecht crushed the ball in a fulltime role, and had scouts throwing draft grades on him as high as the first round. Toronto took a risk waiting until the 113th pick, but got their man in the third round.

Knecht is a mediocre fielder with a fringe-average arm, making his best-case defensive position left field, and his worst-case either first base or designated hitter. Regardless, Knecht wasn’t considered a potential first round pick because of his defensive skills – he possesses an impressive power/speed combination in addition to his best tool, his bat. According to Perfect Game, Knecht runs a 6.54 60-time, which is exceptional straight-line speed. That speed has yet to turn into triples and stolen bases, but they could come as his baserunning skills improve. He has a smooth and easy swing to go along with a disciplined approach at the plate, giving the potential for above average to plus hit and power tools. He uses the entire field well, which allows him to be strong against both left handed and right handed pitchers.

Playing alongside Jake Marisnick and Michael Crouse in the Lansing outfield, Knecht helped to drive the Lugnuts to the Midwest League championship, where they eventually fell in three games to the Quad City River Bandits. Fatigue may have been a factor late in the season for Knecht, as it was his first taste of full season ball in addition to the long playoff run. The statistics back up that assessment, as he hit .302/.391/.491 (.882) through the first four months of the season before falling off drastically in August and September. With the knowledge and experience gained from full season ball, Knecht should be better prepared for 2012 and ready to rake for five-plus months in Dunedin.

Prove It

Michael Crouse –- 2011 team: Single-A Lansing
364 AB, .261/.352/.475 (.827 OPS), 26 2B, 5 3B, 14 HR, 55 RBI, 38 SB, 44/113 BB/K

The fourth player on the corner outfield primer is the list’s second Canadian, Michael Crouse. Unlike Knecht who was born in the home of the Blue Jays, Crouse is yet another product from the outstanding baseball programs of British Columbia, where current major leaguers Justin Morneau, Brett Lawrie, Jason Bay, Rich Harden, Ryan Dempster, and Jeff Francis (among others) all learned to play ball. Of the three corner outfielders who entered the draft, Crouse was the lowest selected as a 16th rounder in 2008.

Crouse only turned 21 years old last month, but has already spent parts of four seasons in Toronto’s farm system -- though he has only started playing up to his potential in the last two. It shouldn’t really come as a surprise, however, as Crouse only recently became a one sport athlete. Throughout highschool, Crouse and his 6’4”, 215 lbs frame played a lot of football which, while greatly increasing his strength and athleticism, decreased the amount of time he spent in the cages learning the intricacies of the game. The growth is obvious, as his improvement with his bat has allowed both his power and speed tools to shine. In his last two seasons he has posted .859 and .827 OPS values respectively, while totalling 38 doubles, 10 triples, 20 home runs, and 52 stolen bases in 157 games. The only tool lacking is the bat, though it is more than playable. If he could continue to improve it to even fringe above average, he could me a monster in the power department.

It’s very likely that Crouse and his two Lugnuts outfielder pals will be reunited again next season with the Dunedin Blue Jays, which should be a good challenge for the three, but Crouse in particular. 2011 was a weak year for pitching in the Midwest League, but the Florida State League will always have good pitchers and pitcher-friendly parks. If he continues his success from the past two seasons into the FSL, his breakout will be very real and he’ll start flying up prospect charts. Until that time, he still falls into the “prove it” category.

For anyone reading this article or who reads my blog regularly, thank you, it means a lot, and have a Merry Christmas / Happy Holidays!

Blue Jays Top 30 Prospect Preview

Both directly and indirectly, the offseason is one of the times every year in which prospects enter the baseball spotlight. Indirectly, prospects are frequently involved in trade discussions, as it is becoming seemingly more and more rare for teams to trade major league talent for major league talent. Directly, the winter brings in countless prospect lists, allowing fans to further inspect and analyze the reported trades, attempting to assemble a package that they deem "fair" for both teams.

In a preview of the more detailed and in-depth player-by-player list I'll release over the next couple of months, below is my ranking of the Top 30 Blue Jays prospects (in order) with a short blurb about each player. The list is divided into three tiers -- upper, middle, and lower. The tiers are more arbitrary than anything else, basically acting as shorthand for 1-10, 11-20, and 21-30. The gap between 9 and 10 isn't necessarily any different than the gap between 10 and 11, despite the change in tier.

UPPER TIER

1. C Travis d’Arnaud –- The best all-around catcher to step foot in Toronto’s system in recent memory, d’Arnaud has the best hit/power combination on this list while playing sound defense at a premium position.

2. CF Jake Marisnick –- The biggest jumper from last year’s ranked prospects (11 to 2), Marisnick translated his impressive tools into absurd statistics to lead Lansing to the Midwest League Finals.

3. CF Anthony Gose –- If he improved his hit tool, he would be one of the best prospects in all of baseball. Until that happens, the risk is too great to rank Gose any higher.

4. LHP Daniel Norris -– Toronto’s highest rated 2011 draftee, Norris has the highest ceiling (#1) of any pitcher in the system. As with most highschool arms, the risk factor here is off the charts.

5. RHP Noah Syndergaard –- Syndergaard’s fastball improved so much in 2011, he has jumped from below slot signee to top prospect. He has the frame and repertoire to be a frontline starter.

6. RHP Drew Hutchison –- Hutchison lacks the ceiling of the previous two pitchers, but he’s almost Major League ready and could easily be a solid mid-rotation starter down the line.

7. LHP Justin Nicolino –- Nicolino dominated the low minors in 2011 with an advanced changeup. He has loads of projectibility on an already solid fastball, giving him some significant big league potential.

8. RHP Aaron Sanchez –- Continuing the trend of potential front line starters, Sanchez uses a fastball/curveball combination to put hitters away. Command is the biggest obstacle at this point.

9. RHP Deck McGuire –- McGuire lacks the ceiling of many pitchers on this list, but he may have the highest floor, as he already throws four solid-average pitches with good command.

10. CF Jacob Anderson –- This multi talented highschool draftee demolished the Gulf Coast in a late season assignment, and could be ready to make his name in full season ball.

MIDDLE TIER

11. RHP Adonys Cardona –- History’s highest paid Venezuelan IFA, Cardona has one of the best fastballs in the system and a huge ceiling, but his lack of secondary pitches give him a shaky future.

12. RHP Asher Wojciechowski –- The rotation/bullpen question remains, and the reliance on his fastball and resulting sky high homerun rate (in the Florida State League of all places) is concerning.

13. 3B Matt Dean –- Despite having yet to play professional ball, Dean’s power ceiling is intriguing enough to rank in the upper half of the middle tier. Serious boom or bust potential.

14. C Carlos Perez –- His full season debut was incredibly disappointing. When combined with the surge and infusion of talent in the rest of the system, Perez becomes the system’s biggest faller (8 to 14).

15. LF Christopher Hawkins –- A converted infielder, Hawkins’ advanced bat allowed him to dominate the Appalachian League. Another good year with the bat in 2012 could really boost his stock.

16. SS Adeiny Hechavarria –- The best defensive player in the system, Hechavarria would easily be in the upper tier if he could swing the bat. Until that happens, projections must be tempered.

17. SS Dickie Thon Jr –- Thon has plus athleticism and solid defense to go along with the most offensive potential of any Toronto middle infielder, but his career has gotten off to a very rough start.

18. C A.J. Jimenez –- Perhaps the most underrated player in the system, Jimenez has four good tools and has put together back-to-back solid seasons. His Double-A play could make or break his prospect status.

19. RHP Joseph Musgrove –- Featuring primarily a heavy fastball capable of touching 98 mph, Musgrove is a solidly built 6’5” right hander with a wide possibility of futures.

20. RHP Kevin Comer –- Injuries derailed his draft year, but Comer is a big, athletic right hander with a bright future in the rotation if he can rediscover his lost velocity.

LOWER TIER

21. RHP Chad Jenkins –- Toronto’s 2009 first rounder, Jenkins took a step back in 2011 and needs to prove he can be more than an inning eating back-end starter.

22. 1B David Cooper –- Cooper had a monstrous 2011, but there are big questions regarding how much success should be attributed to his bat, and how much should be attributed to the PCL.

23. RHP Joel Carreno –- One of two top 30 prospects to play in the majors, Carreno’s fastball/slider combination gives him a future as a late inning reliever, possibly as soon as next season.

24. LF Marcus Knecht –- A poor August weakened an otherwise outstanding first full season, but as a below average fielder, Knecht will need to find consistent success with the bat to have a future.

25. RHP John Stilson –- Recovering from a serious shoulder injury, Stilson’s plus fastball and improving offspeed pitches should guarantee he reaches the big leagues, with the role dependent upon health.

26. 3B Kellen Sweeney –- Health is the biggest concern for this former second round pick, as he’s managed only 80 professional at-bats in two seasons. Sweeney needs to get his career going.

27. LHP Griffin Murphy –- Turning 21 in early 2012, Murphy needs to make some noise above the GCL if he wants to find the prospect shine that made him a second round pick in 2010.

28. RF Michael Crouse -- Formerly a highschool football player, Crouse has a power/speed ceiling that's off the charts if he can continue to develop the bat.

29. RHP Danny Barnes –- A Princeton U graduate, Barnes throws four pitches out of the bullpen with good command, allowing him to put together an outstanding 13.50 K/9 with Lansing.

30. RF Moises Sierra -- Two serious injuries derailed his development in 2010, but a solid all-around 2011 season would indicate he's back on track. Best defensive arm in the system.

Blue Jays Positional Primer: Center Field

Inspiration for the Blue Jays Positional Primer series comes from Jason Parks of Baseball Prospectus. Over the course of the second half of the season, Jason examined the prospects in the entire minor leagues on a position-by-position basis, giving insight into players both within and well outside the top 100 rankings.

While the sample size of one team is vastly inferior to that of the entire minor leagues, I feel Toronto has enough depth in the farm -- particularly in the low minors -- that such a series could provide some insight into prospects that Blue Jays fans aren't as familiar with as they should be. This is the fifth installment of an eight part series that will examine catcher, first base, middle infield, third base, center field, corner outfield, right handed pitcher, and left handed pitcher. The middle infield and corner outfield lists are included as there's really no such thing as a second base or left field prospect, they're just shortstops and center/right fielders who couldn't handle the defensive demands and get moved to the easier defensive position as they age. It should be noted that -- outside of the Leader of the Pack, who is the #1 for the position -- these are not necessarily progressive rankings of the prospects.

Part I -- Blue Jays Positional Primer: Catcher
Part II -- Blue Jays Positional Primer: First Base
Part III -- Blue Jays Positional Primer: Middle Infield
Part IV -- Blue Jays Positional Primer: Third Base
Part VI -- Blue Jays Positional Primer: Corner Outfield
Part VII -- Blue Jays Positional Primer: Right-handed Pitcher
Part VIII -- Blue Jays Positional Primer: Left-handed Pitcher

Leader of the Pack

Jake Marisnick -– 2011 team: Single-A Lansing
462 AB, .320/.392/.496 (.888 OPS), 27 2B, 6 3B, 14 HR, 77 RBI, 37 SB, 43/91 BB/K

A year ago, I ranked Jake Marisnick as the 11th best prospect in Toronto’s system, 6th among positional players. Things have changed drastically since last spring. Marisnick was a 3rd round pick in a very memorable 2009 draft for the Blue Jays. Despite being the fifth highest player Toronto drafted, he was the second highest to sign, behind only 1st round pick Chad Jenkins. The three pitchers drafted between the two all went unsigned. Marisnick agreed to terms on the day of the signing deadline, receiving a well over-slot bonus of 1.0M. In an otherwise rather uninspiring haul for the Blue Jays, Marisnick was a gem.

With such a late agreement, Marisnick wasn’t able to suit up for Toronto until the 2010 season, where he debuted with the Gulf Coast Blue Jays. The placement lacked aggression, and Marisnick cleaned up the league full of pitchers below his talent and development level, hitting .287/.373/.459 (.832) with 15 extra base hits and 14 stolen bases in 35 games. The front office took the hint and promoted him – but perhaps too far. Marisnick skipped two levels – Rookie and Low-A – instead moving straight into Single-A with the Lansing Lugnuts. He struggled to make adjustments, hitting .220/.298/.339 (.636) in 34 games, compiling a disappointing 9/37 walk to strikeout ratio.

Marisnick possesses a tool-set that scouts drool over, and used those tools to put together one of the most impressive all-around seasons of any position player in the low minors. He showcased his power (47 extra base hits), bat (.320 batting average), plate discipline (43 walks), and speed (37 stolen bases) while playing impressive defense in centerfield despite his large frame – 6’4”, 200 lbs. He may eventually be forced to right field, as at only 20 years old he could continue to grow and his arm would more than suffice, but such a transition would likely occur as he approaches the major leagues. Marisnick should open next season with the Dunedin Blue Jays, but could easily play himself into Double-A by midseason. Players who can both hit and play effective center field are few and far between, and Marisnick is one of the best in the minor leagues.

The Question Mark

Anthony Gose -– 2011 team: Double-A New Hampshire
509 AB, .253/.349/.415 (.763 OPS), 20 2B, 7 3B, 16 HR, 59 RBI, 70 SB, 62/154 BB/K

I’ve been torn back and forth between Marisnick and Anthony Gose over who is the better prospect, but the alarming number of questions about Gose’s bat forces him down. Gose was drafted by the Philadelphia Phillies in the 2nd round of the 2008 draft, and played parts of three seasons for them before being swapped to Toronto, via Houston, in the Roy Oswalt trade two summers ago. It was later revealed that Alex Anthopolous attempted to acquired Gose as part of the Roy Halladay trade, but at the time Philadelphia was uninterested in moving him – though Travis d’Arnaud turned into a pretty good third piece anyways.

Anthony Gose is a very rare player in that he has arguably three 80 level tools. His arm is an 80 in center field, as he was both a pitcher and fielder in high school and touched 95 mph off the mound. His speed is an 80 as well, which is evident by his 70 stolen bases in 2011 and his career-best 76 stolen bases in 2009. His glove is his third best tool, and even on his bad days he still looks like a 70 caliber talent in center. The tools that have always held Gose back from top prospect status were his power and his bat. His power has made huge strides over the last few seasons, as he went from 35 (24/9/2) extra base hits in 2009 to 40 (20/13/7) in 2010 to 43 (20/7/16) in 2011. His bat, on the other hand, has shown minimal improvement. Despite an improving his walk rate (35 BB in 2009, 45 BB in 2010, 62 BB in 2011), his batting average has remained consistently low (.250-.260 range), while his strikeout rate has actually worsened (110 K in 2009, 132 K in 2010, 154 K in 2011). While his power has improved from a 30 tool at the time of his draft to a 50 tool at present, his bat tool hasn’t budged from a mediocre 40.

The biggest advantage he has on his side is age. Gose just finished a full season at Double-A, and only turned 21 years old in August. He’s roughly two years younger than his peers, and even if he repeats the Double-A or Triple-A level, he could still be in the majors before his 23rd birthday. From Toronto’s perspective, they have no reason to rush Gose and force him to the majors before he’s ready due to the presence of former top prospect Colby Rasmus in the Rogers Center outfield. As I mentioned, it’s possible Gose could find himself back in Double-A next season, but it’s far more likely he’ll get the pleasure of hitting in the launching pad that is Las Vegas. While the power and batting numbers are sure to increase simply due to the environment, one thing to keep an eye on is strikeouts, as they may be the best indicator as to whether or not he’s figuring it out. His work ethic certainly can’t be questioned, however, as after playing 145 games (including playoffs) in Double-A and 29 games in the Arizona Fall League, he’s continuing to work in the Venezuelan Winter League.

Remember the Name(s)

Jacob Anderson –- 2011 team: Gulf Coast Blue Jays
37 AB, .405/.476/.622 (1.098 OPS), 2 2B, 0 3B, 2 HR, 7 RBI, 2 SB, 4/8 BB/K

The first of two 2011 draftees in the Remember the Name section, Jacob Anderson was the highest drafted player to sign with Toronto after Tyler Beede chose college over professional baseball, receiving a slightly-above slot bonus of 0.99M. Anderson played a lot of first base in high school, but that was due to a situation where the team had too many outfielders and too few infielders, and his bat was capable of playing at first base. Due to his size (6'4", 190 lbs) he best profiles as a corner outfielder long-term, but for the time being it appears Toronto will give him a chance to play center and deal with moving him at a later date.

The now 19 year old Anderson only got into 9 games with the Gulf Coast Blue Jays in August, but showed off the tools that made him a supplemental-first round pick. Anderson's best tool is his power, as he was rated as one of the best power hitters of his draft class. He has quick hips, a ton of bat speed, and a smooth swing, which allows him to generate power without having to rely upon an uppercut. A true plus tool. Uppercuts can often hinder the development of the bat tool, but Anderson should be able to avoid such a fate. He sets himself quickly and his timing mechanism (a toe tap with his front foot) is very simple, which should keep him consistent at the plate. Anderson has plus athleticism (9 triples, 24 stolen bases in his final high school season), which is a dimension of his game that was wasted at first base. He shows some hesitancy when the ball is coming towards him both in the infield and outfield, possibly limiting his defensive ceiling unless he can get past this quirk. His arm strength is average while his accuracy is a tick above average, so if he moves to a corner, he might be better suited to left than right. A great video of Jacob Anderson can be found here, via the awesome guys over at Jays Journal.

After such a strong offensive showing in his short season debut, it's possible Anderson could be challenged with a Single-A Lansing assignment out of the spring, as it would be a similar path to what top prospect Jake Marisnick has followed. The Lugnuts should have a number of openings in the outfield, as Marisnick, Knecht, and Crouse should all be promoted to Dunedin to open 2012. If not, Anderson will likely split the season between two teams, spending 30 or so games with a short season team (Vancouver most likely) before finishing the season with the aformentioned Lugnuts. Despite playing in only 9 professional games, Anderson should rank highly on my top prospect list.

Dwight Smith Jr –- N/A

The second 2011 draftee in the Remember the Name category is Dwight Smith Jr, another compensation round pick. Smith received a signing bonus of 0.8M which, like Anderson, was slightly above slot. Like Dickie Thon Jr, Smith Jr is the son of a former big leaguer of the same name. DNA and bloodlines are quickly becoming another important aspect of amateur scouting, although Junior plays the game a bit differently than his father. He recently turned 19 but has yet to play a professional game, which speaks to the problems the previous signing deadline had (it's been fixed, but the other draft changes the new CBA brought is a whole other story).

Smith's bat is easily his best tool, and is what made him a supplemental-first round pick. He has a very advanced approach at the plate, showing an ability to square up pitches regardless of the quadrant of the strikezone they're thrown in. Smith has a lot of action in his swing, as he wiggles the bat in his hands in addition to a huge front leg kick as a timing mechanism. The plane of his swing covers much of the plate, allowing him to fight off borderline pitches until he sees one to his liking. A large aspect of Smith's success is his plate vision and maturity. He can recognize pitches quickly and is an intelligent hitter, taking a walk when a pitcher refuses to throw over the plate. Smith grew up around baseball, and it's evident with the way he plays. His power is a step above that of his father, and should be an average tool in the future. His athleticism, on the other hand, is a step below his dad's. He has average speed, but is an above average base runner due to his inherent ability to read pitchers. The same instincts that help him in the box and on the basepaths also help him on defense. Reaction time and reading balls are far more important in the outfield than pure speed, which allows Smith to be an above average fielder. His arm strength is mediocre, but his accuracy is outstanding and his quick release allows him to throw out more runners than he should. A video of Dwight Smith Jr can be found here, which was once again brought to my attention by the guys at Jays Journal.

As previously mentioned, Smith has yet to make his professional debut, which makes forecasting his 2012 destination rather difficult. His advanced offensive skills make Lansing or Vancouver legitimate possibilities, and anything below Low-A would have to be considered a safe yet cowardly assignment. Smith's instincts and baseball smarts allow his tools to play up, but his ceiling is more of a solid regular than a potential All-Star.

Blue Jays showed interest in Carlos Quentin

According to Jon Heyman of CBS Sports, the Blue Jays were recently engaged in conversations with the White Sox regardling outfielder Carlos Quentin. He continues to say that the talks have since cooled, and the White Sox are speaking to other teams. If this rumor is true -- which, with Alex Anthopolous you never know -- it speaks volumes about how the front office feels about our current left field situation, namely Travis Snider and Eric Thames.

Eric Thames had a decent debut, but I've always been a Travis Snider supporter in this discussion. Snider was the higher draft pick, and had greater minor league success while facing his opposition at a younger age. He's a vastly superior defender, and has middle of the order potential with the bat. Thames is a below average defender in left, and likely has a future as a platoon outfielder on a 2nd division team.

While I still have faith in Lunchbox, it appears the front office might be leaning in a third direction -- a direction that includes neither Thames nor Snider. Quentin hasn't been the same since his MVP-calibre 2008 season with Chicago, when he produced a .288/.394/.571 (.965 OPS) batting line to go along with 26 doubles, 36 home runs, and 100 runs batted in. He likely would have won the award, too, if he hadn't missed the last month of the season due to a wrist injury. In three seasons since, he has struggled with both injuries and his bat. His 131 games in 2010 set a career high, while his .254 batting average in 2011 was his best since 2008. He's more of a .250/.340/.480 hitter these days, which seems good, but when you factor in his poor defense and expected 2012 salary (roughly 7M), he suddenly becomes far less appealing.

If Toronto wants to make an upgrade in left field (which I consider to be a low priority), fine, but they should seek out something better than a 29 year old, expensive, 1 dimensional player. Quentin's ceiling at this point in his career is a 3 WAR player, and I feel a Snider/Davis platoon in left field should out-produce Quentin with ease. Additionally, with Toronto's apparent desire for cost certainty and controlability, Snider and Davis would combine to make half of Quentin's expected 2012 salary.

The only way a Carlos Quentin trade would make sense would be if Toronto were pushing all in for the 2012 season, and they didn't want to risk Snider capsizing again and weakening the lineup. However, considering their public reluctance to even consider Prince Fielder and their smokescreen/blanket statements regarding Yu Darvish, that does not appear to be the case. I won't call 2012 a rebuilding year because it's not, but at this point it appears to be another developmental year. Why waste a developmental year on a guy like Carlos Quentin, when you can use it as an opportunity to give Snider the 400+ AB he deserves and actually see what he has?

Sergio Santos returns to Toronto

The Blue Jays have found their closer. He's not named Jonathan Papelbon, Heath Bell, or Huston Street, but his name should still be familar to Blue Jays fans. Sergio Santos. Santos is a former 1st round pick by the Arizona Diamondbacks, and was traded to the Blue Jays in December of 2005 along side Troy Glaus in exchange for Orlando Hudson and Miguel Batista. He played parts of two seasons in the Blue Jays system before being claimed on waivers in May 2008 by the Minnesota Twins.

He played the remainder of the 2008 season with the Twins, but continued to struggle at the plate. The Twins granted him his release at the end of the season, and Santos found himself a home with the White Sox. Or at least he thought he did. The White Sox traded him to the San Francisco Giants in March 2009, but by April, he was back with the White Sox. Needless to say, he's a very well travelled man.

After being reacquired by Chicago, both he and the team decided it would be best to make a position switch. Santos is a big bodied man at 6'2", 230 lbs, and was always a little large for shortstop. However, instead of moving him to third base, the White Sox converted him to a relief pitcher, where his powerful arm could truly be on display.

To the surprise of no one, Santos' first year as a pitcher didn't go smoothly. He pitched in 26 games across four levels between Single-A and Triple-A, posting an 8.16 ERA and 1.99 WHIP. There were some positive signs, however, as Santos put together a 9.42 K/9, frequently overmatching hitters with his power fastball. The most surprising aspect of his debut pitching season was the life on his slider. Given his arm strength the fastball was expected, but the White Sox had no way to foresee such an impressive breaking pitch developing so quickly.

The fastball - slider combination was impressive enough that Santos earned himself an invitation to Spring Training with the White Sox. Santos appeared in 10 games (10.1 innings), striking out 16 batters despite an unimpressive 1.55 WHIP. Santos was out of options, and he showed enough that the White Sox did not want to attempt to pass him through waivers. He made the team out of the spring, and he did nothing but make the front office look brilliant in his rookie season. He continued to struggle with his WHIP (driven by an unimpressive 4.5 BB/9), but put together an outstanding 2.96 ERA fueled by 56 strikeouts in 51.2 innings.

He took his game a step further in 2011 season, and due to Bobby Jenks being granted his walking papers and Matt Thornton struggling, Santos found himself in the White Sox closer role. His walk rate (4.1 BB/9) improved slightly but was still an issue. Santos' dominance came through completely overpowering hitters when he was able to get the ball near the strikezone, causing his strikeout rate to explode to 13.1 K/9 and hit rate to plummet to 5.8 H/9. His ERA rose to 3.55, but his FIP (2.87) and xFIP (2.69) -- the numbers a pitcher can control -- were still both on the level of dominance. His impressive numbers earned him a longterm contract late in the season, as Santos signed a 3 year, 8.25M deal that includes 3 team options. As has been said many times on Twitter already, the contract almost looks like it was designed by Alex Anthopolous himself.

Santos is a primarily a two pitch pitcher. He has a 93-95 mph fastball that is capable of touching 98 mph, and uses it alongside a late-biting mid 80's power slider to dominate right handed batters to the tune of a .418 opponents OPS. He also throws a mid-to-high 80's changeup against left handed batters, but it lacks the break of his slider. Still, Santos held lefties to an impressive .628 opponents OPS in 2011, which is more than acceptable in a righty-lefty matchup. There will be no questions about who should pitch the 9th inning in 2012, even if three left handed batters are due up.

In exchange for Santos, the Blue Jays sent pitching prospect Nestor Molina to the White Sox. Molina -- who I was going to rank in the 6-10 range of my top prospect list -- is a three pitch pitcher who had downright silly statistical success in 2011. It is well documented that Molina is more of a finesse pitcher than a power pitcher, but his low 90's fastball works very well with his splitter and changeup, particularly with his plus-plus command. He absolutely has a big league future, the only questions are/were what role, and how good can he be. Many believe he will end up in the bullpen -- possibly closing -- while others believe he has the potential to be a #2 or #3 starter. I'm of the belief that he's more than capable of sticking as a starter, but I cannot fathom how people believe he will be an ace down the road. When scouting reports and statistics disagree, most often, the statistics are wrong. I wrote in the past how a lot of Molina's success could be attributed to lack of exposure, and by that I meant his inning limit. Rarely did hitters ever get to see him a third time in his starts, which is when both fatigue and hitter adjustments begin to work against the pitcher. When Molina starts consistently throwing 6 or 7 innings and 90-100 pitches, his numbers very well could take a hit.

Alex Anthopolous clearly saw this as an opportunity to trade from strength to fill a need. The Blue Jays already have a number of young and controllable pitchers in the major leagues (Romero, Morrow, Alvarez, Cecil, Drabek) and an abundance of pitchers in the minor leagues who are only one or two years away (Molina, McGuire, Hutchison, Jenkins, Wojciechowski). A road block was on the horizon, and Anthopolous chose to capitalize on his assets as opposed to letting their value diminish as they rot in the minor leagues. It's a smart move, both in the short term and in the long run. I almost have to pat myself on the back, as I predicted Nestor Molina (or Deck McGuire) as the offer in a Huston Street trade.

There's no loser in this trade, as both Toronto and Chicago got what they needed. For Toronto, they acquired a young closer without having to give ridiculous term or salary. For Chicago, they finally began a much needed rebuild, moving the first of what could be many big league pieces to inject a spark into a lifeless farm system.

Blue Jays Positional Primer: Third Base

Inspiration for the Blue Jays Positional Primer series comes from Jason Parks of Baseball Prospectus. Over the course of the second half of the season, Jason examined the prospects in the entire minor leagues on a position-by-position basis, giving insight into players both within and well outside the top 100 rankings.

While the sample size of one team is vastly inferior to that of the entire minor leagues, I feel Toronto has enough depth in the farm -- particularly in the low minors -- that such a series could provide some insight into prospects that Blue Jays fans aren't as familiar with as they should be. This is the fourth installment of an eight part series that will examine catcher, first base, middle infield, third base, center field, corner outfield, right handed pitcher, and left handed pitcher. The middle infield and corner outfield lists are included as there's really no such thing as a second base or left field prospect, they're just shortstops and center/right fielders who couldn't handle the defensive demands and get moved to the easier defensive position as they age. It should be noted that -- outside of the Leader of the Pack, who is the #1 for the position -- these are not necessarily progressive rankings of the prospects.

Part I -- Blue Jays Positional Primer: Catcher
Part II -- Blue Jays Positional Primer: First Base
Part III -- Blue Jays Positional Primer: Middle Infield
Part V -- Blue Jays Positional Primer: Center Field
Part VI -- Blue Jays Positional Primer: Corner Outfield
Part VII -- Blue Jays Positional Primer: Right-handed Pitcher
Part VIII -- Blue Jays Positional Primer: Left-handed Pitcher

The Leader of the Pack

Matt Dean -– N/A

Despite having yet to suit up in a Blue Jays uniform, Matt Dean is Toronto’s best third base prospect and the Leader of the Pack. Dean was drafted in the 13th round of the 2011 draft, signing for a well over-slot bonus of 0.737M – roughly 2nd round money. With such a drastic over-slot deal, the announcement was held back by the Commissioner’s Office until the signing deadline -– August 15th –- making it impossible for Dean to play for any Blue Jays affiliates in his draft year. The 6’3”, 190 lb Dean played shortstop in highschool, but was announced at the draft as a third baseman. Depending upon his physical growth and defensive development he may eventually be forced to first or a corner outfield, but Dean should be given every opportunity to stick at the hot corner.

Dean profiles as a middle of the lineup hitter if he reaches his ceiling, but he has a number of hurdles to conquer before reaching his potential. His best tool is his power, which is generated by a natural uppercut swing and solid bat speed. He has the potential for plus power if his projectable frame fills out. His bat tool is a step behind his power, as despite the bat speed he has a long swing and relies heavily upon a timing mechanism with his front foot. If he can’t shorten up his swing mechanically, he could have issues turning on good fastballs inside as he faces better competition. He could hit .290, or his bat could never allow to get out of Triple-A. There’s a lot of risk in highschool players. Next to his power, his arm is his best tool, also a plus. He makes smooth, crisp throws across the diamond. As previously mentioned, his fielding isn’t spectacular, and he will need to work at it if he wishes to stay at third.

Even with the huge signing bonus, Dean’s 13th round status could allow him to stay under the radar for his first couple of seasons, giving him time to develop without pressure – something that can’t be said for the next player on this list. Dean should play for a short-season league in his debut season -– likely Bluefield -– but he could realistically start for any team as high as Low-A Vancouver.

Mr Consistency

Kevin Ahrens -– 2011 team: High-A Dunedin Blue Jays
429 AB, .242/.334/.389 (.723 OPS), 24 2B, 0 3B, 13 HR, 54 RBI, 0 SB, 56/99 BB/K

Kevin Ahrens was the highest drafted of any player on the third base list, being selected in the 1st round (16th overall) of the 2007 draft. Six players selected after him in that draft (J.P. Arencibia, Brett Cecil, Trystan Magnuson, Brad Mills, Marc Rzepczynski, and Brad Emaus) have already reached the major leagues in various capacities, but Ahrens has yet to play above High-A Dunedin, a team he has suited up for on Opening Day in three consecutive seasons. His continuous mediocrity at one level earns him the title of Mr. Consistency.

It’s typically bad for a player to have to repeat a level. It’s even worse when they’re statistically worse the second time around. This is exactly what happened to Kevin Ahrens. After posting an ugly .215/.282/.302 (.584) line for the D-Jays in 2009, Ahrens was re-assigned there for the 2010 season. He somehow managed to play worse, slipping to .187/.241/.290 (.531) in 28 games before being demoted to Single-A Lansing. He was respectable in Lansing, which earned him a third shot at High-A in 2011, where he put together the offensive line seen above.

You know your career has gone down the wrong path when a .723 OPS is the best of your 5 year career. Still, there is some light at the end of the tunnel. Ahrens displayed career bests in power and plate discipline in his first year playing exclusively as a right handed bat (he was previously a switch hitter), and will still only be 22 on Opening Day. Assuming a Double-A assignment out of the spring -– which is logical given his inclusion in the Arizona Fall League this year -– Ahrens will still be matched up against players his own age. He’s not a 24 or 25 year old scuffling in the minors just yet. While the Chipper Jones comparisons are now so laughable they might make you cry, a big league career is not out of the realm of possibility.

The Question Mark

Kellen Sweeney –- 2011 team: Rookie-Class Bluefield Blue Jays
35 AB, .114/.295/.143 (.438 OPS), 1 2B, 0 3B, 0 HR, 1 RBI, 1 SB, 9/17 BB/K

A 2nd round pick in the 2010 draft, Sweeney’s career has not started off the way anyone had hoped. Kellen Sweeney signed his contract on July 26th 2010, roughly 16 months ago. In those 16 months, Sweeney has played in a total of 25 games for Blue Jays affiliates. As mentioned, Sweeney signed late in his draft year and was only able to play in 16 games for the Gulf Coast Blue Jays. He performed very well, hitting .267/.450/.444 (.894), emphasized by an impressive 15 to 12 walk to strikeout ratio.

The 2011 season went in the complete opposite direction, as Sweeney got off to a slow start statistically with the Bluefield Blue Jays. It got worse, as he only managed to play in 9 games before suffering a fracture in his left thumb, located in the base of the digit down near the wrist. The injury occurred on June 30th when he fell awkwardly on his hand during a rundown on the base paths. That would be the last game he played last season. Hand and wrist injuries are always a concern for power hitters, but power is not the game Kellen plays. Kellen has a very similar toolset to that of his older brother Ryan, who currently plays the outfield for the Oakland Athletics. He has an excellent approach at the plate with very quick hands, allowing the potential for a plus hit tool despite a well below average power tool. He’s built solidly at 6’0”, 180 lbs, but isn’t overly athletic. He has average speed, but excellent instincts allow him to be an above average runner on the base paths. Those instincts also serve him well in the field, which might be why Toronto moved him from shortstop to the instinct-driven third base position. He had Tommy John surgery on his throwing arm in 2009 which zapped a lot of his arm strength, but if it returns he should be able to remain on the left side of the infield.

Sweeney will be 20 on Opening Day, which might force Toronto into giving him an aggressive assignment despite his 80 career professional at-bats. He will likely be competing with Matt Dean for placement, so if Dean shows enough to start the year with Vancouver, Sweeney might make the jump to Lansing. Otherwise, he could find himself back with Bluefield. It may really come down to how the two third basemen look in instructional during the spring. Regardless of his assignment, Sweeney needs to send a message in 2012 and let the baseball world know he’s still relevant.

Remember the Name

Gabriel Cenas -– 2011 team: Dominican League Blue Jays
53 AB, .208/.368/.226 (.594 OPS), 1 2B, 0 3B, 0 HR, 3 RBI, 1 SB, 9/11 BB/K

Rounding out the third base list is Gabriel Cenas, an 18 year old Venezuelan. Cenas is the often forgotten second big-name prospect the Blue Jays signed out of Venezuela during the 2010 International Free Agent signing period, behind 2.8M dollar man Adonys Cardona. Cenas was ranked as the 14th best available International Free Agent by Baseball America, and received a 0.7M signing bonus when he came to terms with the Blue Jays. Having only recently turned 18, Cenas still has a lot of time to grow. Currently standing 6’1” and weighing 155 lbs, he could easily become 6’3”, 200 lbs by the time he’s physically mature at 22 or 23 years of age.

As is the case with almost all International Free Agent signees, Cenas is all tools and projection at this point. Early comments on Cenas have him sounding rather similar to Matt Dean, though obviously without the polish. Cenas’ best (potential) tools are his power and arm. He gets the bat through the strikezone well, allowing him to square up the ball with frequency. As he adds muscle, he could have above average power. Cenas’ arm is a plus tool, as he has no issues firing the ball across the diamond with accuracy. He is a good athlete, but is never likely to be much of a base stealing threat. His hit and fielding tools are impossible to judge at this point, as Cenas has yet to even play on American soil in his career, which drastically reduces his exposure.

Cenas will likely play for the Blue Jays Gulf Coast affiliate in 2012. Talent wise, the transition from the DSL to the GCL is a marginal-at-best increase. The biggest change is the culture, as it gives players a chance to experience the United States while still having a strong Latin community. Cenas likely knows little to no English at this point, and playing in Florida for a year should allow him to learn the basic necessities of the language before eventually moving on to the English-heavy Bluefield, Vancouver, or Lansing communities in later seasons.

Winter Meetings Ahoy!

Come sunrise on Monday, we will have once again arrived at one of the most hectic and exciting times of the year for baseball fans -- the Winter Meetings. The Winter Meetings are one of the few times every year that the General Managers of all 30 teams (save for the GM-less Houston Astros) will be in the same place at the same time. The presence goes beyond just General Managers, as countless assistant GM's, farm directors, scouts, agents, beat reporters, national writers, prospect aficionados -- and even fans -- are in attendance. It is truly a four day mecca of baseball. Additionally, these meetings occur during the period of time in which those General Managers have the most roster and payroll flexibility, allowing a vast number of transactions to occur within a short period of time.

The Blue Jays General Manager, Alex Anthopolous, will enter the meetings with a ton of flexibility, but also a number of important positions to fill. The following is a breakdown of what I feel the Toronto representatives should be focusing upon next week in Dallas.

Second Base

Aaron Hill was a blackhole for nearly two seasons, and was shipped to the Arizona Diamondbacks late in the 2011 season for Kelly Johnson. Johnson played well in his 33 games with the club, hitting .270/.364/.417 (.781). The issue with Johnson is that not only is he a free agent, he's perhaps the best free agent at the second base position. KJ could easily find himself the focus of a bidding war, and price himself out of Toronto's comfort zone. Additionally, with draft picks tied to him signing elsewhere, and with draft picks becoming harder to come by, Alex Anthopolous might see more value in letting him walk.

The free agent crop behind Johnson is less than appealing (Mark DeRosa?), so if he chooses not to re-sign, the Blue Jays will have to look elsewhere for a replacement. The farm system is not an option in this regard, as despite having a number of talented middle infield prospects, none of them are ready for full time duty in the major leagues next spring. This leaves the trade market. Howie Kendrick would be the most intriguing option, but the Angels demands could make that difficult. The Tao of Stieb (@TaoofStieb on Twitter) suggests Gordon Beckham as another target. While he lacks the statistical consistency of Kendrick, the cost should be considerably lower.

The Bullpen

Six players from the April 2011 bullpen will not be with the club in April 2012. While this creates a number of opportunities, it also creates a void in the late-inning experience department. While the "closer mentality" is vastly overstated, having a couple of savy veterans in the bullpen does take some of the pressure off the younger arms. They allow the kids to step into the fire when they're ready, as opposed to being thrown into it unprepared.

Toronto has been linked to almost every closer available in both free agency and trade. While some appear to be logical matches (Huston Street, Andrew Bailey for example), others are mind-numbingly clueless connections (Jonathan Papelbon, Heath Bell, Ryan Madson). Alex Anthopolous clearly has a sound understanding of the volatility of relief pitchers, choosing instead to target pitchers who can be had on short term deals, such as Kevin Gregg, Frank Francisco, Jon Rauch, and Octavio Dotel. I firmly believe Huston Street would be the best fit for the Blue Jays, as he offers a ton of upside while having only 1 year plus an option remaining on his deal. Andrew Bailey would be another good fit, but if the rumors are true that the Athletics turned down the Reds offer of Yonder Alonso, he could be out of Toronto's price range.

Beyond a closer, Toronto could really use another experienced bullpen arm. Rich Harden, Joel Peralta, LaTroy Hawkins, and Mike Gonzalez all pitched solid 2011 seasons, and would fit very well in a 7th or 8th inning role for Toronto over the next 1-2 seasons (2nd year option?). Brad Lidge is coming off a down season and should only require a 1 year deal, possibly with incentives. There are plenty of possiblities in the relief department, and with a majority of Toronto's in-house alternatives having plenty of option years left, Alex Anthopolous has a lot to work with.

First Base / Designated Hitter

I've said it countless times before, but allow me to repeat it once more: a sub-.300 OBP from your starting first baseman is unacceptable. That is exactly the type of production that Adam Lind has given Toronto in back-to-back seasons, and is why I feel Toronto needs to look for an alternative. Edwin Encarnaction displayed a lot of promise in the second half of last season, and I have no issues with him being handed either the first base or designated hitter job next spring.

Whichever position Encarnaction isn't slated to fill should be addressed in free agency. Prince Fielder is the twinkle in the eye of most Blue Jays fans, but it's doubtful the front office will break the bank on him. Not due to lack of interest, but due to their reported reluctance to hand out six or seven year deals. Beyond Fielder and Pujols (who I don't see as a fit at all), there are a couple other solid alternatives. David Ortiz has been linked to the Blue Jays, and could fit very well in the DH role hitting behind Jose Bautista. Three years would be too much term, but two years with a club option might be amiable for both parties. Carlos Pena is another interesting alternative in free agency. He has posted similar HR and RBI numbers as Lind over the past two years, but unlike Lind has kept an OBP > .300 (.357 in 2011). He should be available on a 1 or 2 year deal. With no immediate successors in the farm system, both Ortiz and Pena could help the short term without negatively effecting the long term.

Bold prediction: My crazy prediction for the Winter Meetings doesn't actual involve the Blue Jays, but instead a player they have reportedly been connected with in the past. I can see Joey Votto being traded to the Athletics in exchange for Gio Gonzalez, Andrew Bailey, and a prospect. Furthermore, I wouldn't be surprised if Billy Beane traded Joey Votto either at the trade deadline or next offseason, in preparation of his salary jumping from 9M to 17M. Just a crazy thought, but it does sort of make sense.

Blue Jays Positional Primer: Middle Infield

Inspiration for the Blue Jays Positional Primer series comes from Jason Parks of Baseball Prospectus. Over the course of the second half of the season, Jason examined the prospects in the entire minor leagues on a position-by-position basis, giving insight into players both within and well outside the top 100 rankings.

While the sample size of one team is vastly inferior to that of the entire minor leagues, I feel Toronto has enough depth in the farm -- particularly in the low minors -- that such a series could provide some insight into prospects that Blue Jays fans aren't as familiar with as they should be. This is the third installment of an eight part series that will examine catcher, first base, middle infield, third base, center field, corner outfield, right handed pitcher, and left handed pitcher. The middle infield and corner outfield lists are included as there's really no such thing as a second base or left field prospect, they're just shortstops and center/right fielders who couldn't handle the defensive demands and get moved to the easier defensive position as they age. It should be noted that -- outside of the Leader of the Pack, who is the #1 for the position -- these are not necessarily progressive rankings of the prospects

Part I -- Blue Jays Positional Primer: Catcher
Part II -- Blue Jays Positional Primer: First Base
Part IV -- Blue Jays Positional Primer: Third Base
Part V -- Blue Jays Positional Primer: Center Field
Part VI -- Blue Jays Positional Primer: Corner Outfield
Part VII -- Blue Jays Positional Primer: Right-handed Pitcher
Part VIII -- Blue Jays Positional Primer: Left-handed Pitcher

The Leader of the Pack

Adeiny Hechavarria –- 2011 team(s): Double-A New Hampshire, Triple-A Las Vegas
572 AB, .264/.305/.383 (.687 OPS), 28 2B, 8 3B, 8 HR, 57 RBI, 20 SB, 33/99 BB/K

Powered by one of the best gloves in the minor leagues, Adeiny Hechavarria takes the crown as the Leader of the Pack in the middle infield division. Hechavarria was signed in April of the 2010 season to a 4 year, 10 million dollar major league contract. He started the year working in extended spring training, getting acclimated to the American culture in a low stress environment. He began his official playing career with the High-A Dunedin affiliate, who play out of the Blue Jays spring training complex.

Hechavarria proved to be extremely raw, hitting .193/.217/.292 (.509) in a little over a month’s worth of games with the D-Jays while being perhaps too flashy in the field. Much to the shock of the fanbase, Hechavarria was promoted to New Hampshire in the summer, where, with the help of Spanish-speaking manager Luis Rivera, he managed to turn his season around, hitting a respectable .273/.305/.360 (.665). The fielding became more fundamentally sound as the season wore on, as his throws straightened out after previously throwing sidearm-with-tail across the diamond. The 5’11” shortstop frequently displayed his athleticism, but is still raw in terms of base running, as he will on occasion kill rallies running into outs. His power is average for a middle infielder, as he should be capable of hitting 10+ home runs with plenty of doubles and triples as he finishes maturing physically. The only drawback with Hechavarria is his bat tool, which is currently below average with only average potential, at best.

His second year, 2011, was the tale of two seasons. He spent the first four-plus months with Double-A New Hampshire, hitting .235/.275/.347 (.622) in 111 games. Much like 2010, Hechavarria received yet another seemingly undeserved promotion, and once again, he turned his game up afterwards. Hechavarria hit .389/.431/.537 (.968) in 25 games with the 51’s, and Las Vegas hitting coach Chad Mottola feels he can turn Adeiny’s bat around with some extended work. Hechavarria should have plenty of time to work with Mottola, as it’s expected that he’ll be assigned to Triple-A out of spring training next season, barring an unforeseen lack of moves this offseason. If he can get things together on the offensive side of the game, Hechavarria has a chance to be a very good player.

The Question Mark

Gustavo Pierre -– 2011 team(s): Rookie-Class Bluefield, Single-A Lansing
437 AB, .224/.290/.339 (.629 OPS), 16 2B, 5 3B, 8 HR, 41 RBI, 15 SB, 39/125 BB/K

Gustavo Pierre fall into the Question Mark category, as he may have the widest range of projections of anyone in the farm system. It’s debatable whether Pierre even belongs on the middle infield list, as at 19 years old and already 6’2” (with some growth left), he may be moved to a corner (infield, or outfield) sooner rather than later. Born in the Dominican, Pierre was acquired through International Free Agency in 2008, receiving a signing bonus of 0.7M.

Despite signing prior to the start of the short season leagues in 2008, Pierre didn’t make his professional debut until the 2009 season. He underwent Tommy John surgery in his signing year, which could partially attribute to the fielding issues that are glaring in his statistical lines. In his 233 career minor league games, he has committed 87 fielding errors. While errors are far from the best indicators of a defender’s abilities, where there’s smoke there’s often fire. It’s impossible to accurately evaluate Pierre’s fielding abilities without seeing him in person, but it’s possible the Tommy John surgery affected his arm in a way that makes his throws inaccurate. If this were the case, it would likely rule out third base as an eventual destination, perhaps making left field –- a position where throws are less important but he could still display his athleticism -– a more viable option.

Aside from his defensive flaws, Pierre is very athletic and has the potential for above average to plus power. Scouts rave over the way the ball comes off his bat, but making consistent contact has been an issue for him. A simple case of poor mechanics would be outstanding news, as it’s far easier to teach stances and timing than it is pure bat speed. Pierre started the season with Single-A Lansing but it became readily apparent he wasn’t yet ready for full-season ball, as he hit only .187/.244/.262 (.506) in 56 games. He was much better after his demotion to Rookie-Class Bluefield, hitting .252/.324/.396 (.720) in 63 games, showing impressive power (12 doubles, 3 triples, 6 home runs) and greatly improved plate discipline (26 walks) while facing pitchers more in line with his age and experience. With no shortstops immediately ahead of him on the depth chart, Pierre should get another shot with Lansing out of the spring, where he can once again attempt to erase some of the question marks tainting his prospect status.

Remember the Name(s)

Dickie Joe Thon -– 2011 team: GCL Blue Jays
121 AB, .223/.369/.322 (.691 OPS), 3 2B, 0 3B, 3 HR, 15 RBI, 6 SB, 23/44 BB/K

Dickie Thon is the perfect example of how the round a player is drafted in is not indicative of their talent level. A 5th round pick in 2010, Thon signed for a well over slot bonus of 1.5M. Negotiations were pulled into the public eye, as it was rumored that Thon’s father (of the same name) was hoping to see his son play for his former team, the Houston Astros. Despite this hiccup, Thon signed prior to the deadline, but was not assigned to any minor league affiliates, instead making his debut in 2011.

While the numbers for his professional debut aren’t particularly strong, scouts who had the opportunity to watch him play raved about his tools. Thon has the most offensive potential of any player on this list. He generates good bat speed, but has struggled with consistency. As a 19 year old playing with wooden bats for the first time, that’s both understandable and expected. Thon displays strong gap power, but as he continues to mature and fill out his athletic 6’2” frame, those gappers could start finding their way out of the park. He shows an impressive plate approach for such a young player, walking 23 times in 45 games. Thon’s best tool is his athletic ability, a trait that was passed down from his father (Thon Sr averaged 5 triples and 20 stolen bases per season across his 15 year major league career, peaking at 10 and 37 respectively). His arm and fielding tools are more fundamental than flash, but he has the athleticism and work ethic for both to develop into plus tools. Thon is the total package, with the potential for five above average tools.

Jorge Vega-Rosado –- 2011 team: GCL Blue Jays
183 AB, .317/.380/.470 (.850 OPS), 12 2B, 2 3B, 4 HR, 30 RBI, 22 SB, 19/40 BB/K

With all of the youth at the shortstop position in the Blue Jays system, the middle infield category has two players in the Remember the Name category. The second, JVR, was a 28th round pick in the 2011 draft. He signed in mid-June for approximately slot money, allowing him to make his debut during his draft year –- and what a debut it was. Rosado was one of best hitter on the Gulf Coast Blue Jays, ranking 3rd in batting average, 5th in OBP, 4th in SLG, 4th in OPS, 1st in doubles, 3rd in triples, 3rd in home runs, and 1st in stolen bases )among players with 50 or more at-bats). Given the demands of his defensive position, these were outstanding numbers.

The previous three shortstops on this list all have long, athletic frames with room to grow. JVR does not fall into the same category. A week away from his 20th birthday, Rosado stands only 5’8”, weighing 175 lbs. He is not a player who is going to develop significant power down the road, though as a middle infielder power is a bonus, not a requirement. His bat was impressive in his debut, but it will be tested as the Puerto Rican starts facing more experienced competition next year with Bluefield or Vancouver. JVR committed 11 errors in 51 games at shortstop, but as I mentioned with Gustavo Pierre, errors are a poor statistical measure of defense without additional evidence. As a 28th round pick playing in the Gulf Coast League, Rosado’s public exposure was limited. Hopefully another year of success at a more significant minor league level will force scouts and prospect experts to talk about him often.

Blue Jays Positional Primer: First Base

Inspiration for the Blue Jays Positional Primer series comes from Jason Parks of Baseball Prospectus. Over the course of the second half of the season, Jason examined the prospects in the entire minor leagues on a position-by-position basis, giving insight into players both within and well outside the top 100 rankings.

While the sample size of one team is vastly inferior to that of the entire minor leagues, I feel Toronto has enough depth in the farm -- particularly in the low minors -- that such a series could provide some insight into prospects that Blue Jays fans aren't as familiar with as they should be. This is the second installment of an eight part series that will examine catcher, first base, middle infield, third base, center field, corner outfield, right handed pitcher, and left handed pitcher. The middle infield and corner outfield lists are included as there's really no such thing as a second base or left field prospect, they're just shortstops and center/right fielders who couldn't handle the defensive demands and get moved to the easier defensive position as they age. It should be noted that -- outside of the Leader of the Pack, who is the #1 for the position -- these are not necessarily progressive rankings of the prospects

Part I -- Blue Jays Positional Primer: Catcher
Part III -- Blue Jays Positional Primer: Middle Infield
Part IV -- Blue Jays Positional Primer: Third Base
Part V -- Blue Jays Positional Primer: Center Field
Part VI -- Blue Jays Positional Primer: Corner Outfield
Part VII -- Blue Jays Positional Primer: Right-handed Pitcher
Part VIII -- Blue Jays Positional Primer: Left-handed Pitcher

The Leader of the Pack

David Cooper -– 2011 team: Triple-A Las Vegas 51’s
467 AB, .364/.439/.535 (.974 OPS), 51 2B, 1 3B, 9 HR, 96 RBI, 1 SB, 67/43 BB/K

David Cooper is the Leader of the Pack in the first base division. While Cooper is a decent enough prospect, this title speaks more to the lack of depth in the system at first base, as Alex Anthopolous has targeted primarily up-the-middle talent since taking over two years ago. Cooper was the Blue Jays 1st round pick in the 2008 draft, but has yet to live up to the expectations.

Cooper’s four year minor league career has been a bit of a roller coaster. He signed early in his draft year (2008), and managed to play 69 games across three levels late in the season. Cooper had a strong debut season, hitting .333/.399/.502 (.901), emphasized by his 29 doubles and 30/46 walk-to-strikeout ratio. Cooper would spend all of 2009 and 2010 with the Double-A Fisher Cats, and struggled to make consistent contact both years. He hit .258 in 2009, followed by .257 in 2010. His plate discipline remained an asset (111 walks, 166 strikeouts in 260 games), and his power did show some development, peaking at 20 home runs in 2010. Despite the back-to-back mediocre seasons, Cooper was promoted to Triple-A to start 2011, and put together the strong batting line above, winning the PCL batting title.

The troubling aspect of Cooper’s career is that, out of college, his best tool was supposed to be his bat –- the same bat tool that Cooper has been painfully inconsistent with in his four professional seasons. Scouts were skeptical of his bat translating to the professional leagues as his ability is based more upon strong arms and excellent hand-eye coordination than pure bat speed. He has likely already reached his power potential, as his bat speed and frame don’t project anything beyond 15-20 home runs. His speed and defense are below average to average at best. With Adam Lind and Edwin Encarnacion under contract for 2012, Cooper will likely find himself back in Triple-A to open next season, awaiting an injury.

Mr Consistency

Mike McDade –- 2011 team: Double-A New Hampshire Fishers Cats
484 AB, .281/.328/.457 (.785 OPS), 37 2B, 0 3B, 16 HR, 74 RBI, 0 SB, 28/104 BB/K

While Mike McDade has been very consistent over the past three seasons, the problem is that he hasn’t been consistently above average, particularly for a first baseman. To be considered a true prospect at first base, the player needs to have a special bat, and McDade has not yet shown such ability. McDade was drafted in the 6th round of the 2007 draft, and has recently been added to the 40 man roster to protect him from Rule 5 draft eligibility. While he is built like Milwaukee Brewers slugger Prince Fielder, standing 6’1” and weighing 260 lbs, that is where the similarities between the two end. The switch hitting McDade has average bat and power tools, but given the expectations placed upon first basemen, his power could be considered below average. He’s athletic given his large size, and is actually more defensively sound than the much smaller David Cooper.

As an example of how truly consistent McDade has been, you don’t need to look any further than his bat, his power, and his plate discipline. In batting average, home runs, and walks over the past three seasons, McDade has hit .277/16/32, .267/21/27, .281/16/28, which is all well within one standard deviation of the mean. With a sample size of 1372 AB, it’s safe to say this might be the true talent level of Mike McDade. It should be noted that McDade is still only 22 years old, which does leave some room for improvement as he gets the experience that his pitching counterparts have received. Still, if McDade wants to make the leap from organization depth to top prospect, he’s going to need to take a colossal step forward in 2012, and show the numbers expected from a first baseman.

The Question Mark

Roan Salas -– 2011 team: Low-A Vancouver Canadians
139 AB, .259/.304/.432 (.736 OPS), 10 2B, 1 3B, 4 HR, 14 RBI, 1 SB, 5/31 BB/K

The Question Mark of the first base division is Roan Salas of the Vancouver Canadians. Salas is a player who was acquired via the poorly covered minor league portion of the Rule 5 draft, with the Blue Jays paying the Tampa Bay Rays $12,000 dollars for his rights. At the time, Salas was a 20 year old with a career .322/.390/.506 batting line in 680 AB across 4 years in the short-season minor leagues, so the investment -– given the minimal risk –- was clearly a sound one. Standing only 5’11” and weighing 175 lbs, Salas doesn’t have the build of a typical first baseman, but he still showed impressive power in 2009, hitting 19 doubles, 3 triples, and 15 home runs in 61 games.

Despite never having played in North America, Toronto boldly assigned him to the Low-A affiliate in Vancouver, an area that has a much smaller Hispanic community than, say, the Gulf Coast League. His struggles aren’t surprising, as in addition to the culture shock he skipped two minor league levels. The power remained respectable, but he was clearly overmatched by the command that pitchers in the North American leagues have. After walking 69 times against 84 strikeouts in his first four seasons, Salas struggled to a 5/31 walk-to-strikeout ratio with Vancouver, an area he clearly needs to improve upon if he wishes to continue to climb the ranks. Due to underexposure there isn’t much in terms of scouting reports on Roan Salas, but should he earn a promotion to full-season Lansing to open next season, his name could more frequently enter the conversation in discussions of Toronto’s deep farm system.

Remember the Name

Art Charles –- 2011 team: Rookie-Class Bluefield Blue Jays
250 AB, .240/.351/.468 (.819 OPS), 18 2B, 3 3B, 11 HR, 61 RBI, 1 SB, 39/89 BB/K

Bluefield first baseman Art Charles closes out the list in the Remember the Name division. The 6’6”, 220 lbs Charles is a converted pitcher who has played exclusively as a hitter since being selected in the 20th round of the 2010 draft. Despite being 19, Charles began his career in the Gulf Coast League, where he hit a fairly impressive .244/.331/.431 (.762), showing good power (11 doubles, 4 home runs) and plate discipline (16 walks) in 37 games. He struggled with making consistent contact, leading to 48 strikeouts.

Those trends continued in 2011, this time with the Rookie-Class affiliate in Bluefield. Charles hit a lot of extra base hits and took walks at an above average rate, but once again hit an uninspiring .240 with 89 strikeouts in 68 games. The stat line is a decent indicator of his current tool set. Charles has a monstrous frame which creates an abnormally large strikezone. He has a very long swing, which results in a lot of holes in his swing despite the bat speed he’s able to generate. He has above average power, but it may take a substantial improvement in his hitting ability to truly showcase it. Charles is a respectable athlete, particularly as a first baseman. Like Santiago Nessy, he is still too raw and far away to be considered for the Blue Jays top 20 list, but may have an opportunity to play full-season ball with Lansing next season.