Trade Target: Logan Morrison

Name: Logan Morrison
Position: Left Field / First Base
Team: Florida Marlins
2012 Opening Day age: 24
Contract: League minimum
Service time: 1+ years

Scouting Report:

Morrison doesn't fit the profile of a typical first base or left field type, as power is not his strongest tool. While he is capable of 20 home run seasons, Morrison uses a combination of strong plate coverage and an advanced plate approach to find success at the plate. Deep counts and two strikes don't scare Morrison, as he is more than willing to shorten up his swing and punch a ball the other way, or to simply take a walk and let his teammates hit with a runner on base. Due to the emergence of Gaby Sanchez in 2010, the Marlins moved Morrison to left field, but as he rose through the Marlins system he played roughly 80% of his games at first. He's a big guy -- roughly 6'3" and 240 lbs, so unsurprisingly he's less than impressive on the basepaths.

2011 Statistics:

462 AB, .247/.330/.468 (.797 OPS), 25 2B, 4 3B, 23 HR, 72 RBI, 2 SB, 54/99 BB/K

Why Toronto would want him:

Over the past two seasons, Adam Lind has proven unworthy of regular duty, particularly at an offensively demanding position like first base. Edwin Encarnacion has shown he is capable of playing either first base or designated hitter on a full time basis, but the other position could (and should) be addressed over the winter. Morrison could step in and immediately take over the first base duties while hitting 2nd in the linup. He would be a far more effective two-hitter than anything Toronto used this season, and would actually get on base so Bautista could hit with runners on more frequently. Morrison has not yet entered his arbitration years, so his salary would not be prohibitive.

Why Florida might trade him:

In terms of talent and salary, it would be foolish for Florida to trade away Morrison. Their front office, however, has issues with how Morrison handles himself outside of the baseball stadium, and have gone as far as to publicly call him out. A mid-season demotion to Triple-A (which was rumored to be a punishment for these activities) resulted in a grievance being filed by the MLBPA on Morrison's behalf, only further expanding the divide between the team and player. Much like the Cardinals with Colby Rasmus, some situations simply won't work if the team and player cannot get along, so the Marlins may try to get a clean break from Morrison as they enter their new stadium in 2012.

Minor League Pitcher of the Year

With the minor league seasons having reached completion, it is time to determine the Blue Jays minor league players of the year -- both hitter and pitcher. Unlike previous years, there are a wealth of candidates for these awards thanks to the overall depth of the farm system. In addition to the shear number of prospects, many of the high upside prospects had big years, causing the farm to look even better.

The candidates:

RHP Drew Hutchison, Double-A New Hampshire
14-5, 149.1 IP, 120 H, 42 ER, 4 HR, 35 BB, 171 K
2.53 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 4.89 K/BB, 10.31 K/9, 1.33 GO/AO

In terms of both tools and numbers, Hutchison took more of a step forward than any other pitcher in the Blue Jays system. The former 15th round pick had a strong debut season in the low minor leagues in 2010, but exploded onto the scene in 2011. The vast statistical improvements were driven by an upgraded pitch arsenal. Hutchison added significant velocity to his fastball, up to the 91-95 mph range after sitting in the high 80's previously. Additionally, both of his off-speed pitches (slider, changeup) made strides, with Hutch showing an ability to locate them for called strikes or make hitters look foolish on swings and misses out of the zone. Hutchison had no issues with the long ball. Due to the strong movement on his pitches and plus command, he allowed only 4 home runs in nearly 150 innings. Hutchison's season was highlighted by a streak of six-plus scoreless starts, which drove his promotion to Dunedin. He continued his mastery in High-A before earning a late season promotion to Double-A where he made three dominating starts before being shut down due to his inning limit.

RHP Nestor Molina, Double-A New Hampshire
12-3, 130.1 IP, 114 H, 32 ER, 8 HR, 16 BB, 148 K
2.21 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 9.25 K/BB, 10.22 K/9, 1.43 GO/AO

The second candidate is Nestor Molina, and like Hutchison, he too climbed multiple levels during the season before finishing with New Hampshire. Molina's success was driven by a combination of his impeccable control (1.10 BB/9) and a devastating changeup which makes up for his average fastball. Similar to most young Blue Jays starters, Molina carried an innings limit throughout much of the year, which resulted in a lot of quick 5 innings starts. Despite those restrictions holding him to only 130 innings, Molina still finished 3rd in the entire Blue Jays system with 148 strikeouts, behind only Drew Hutchison (171) and Joel Carreno (152). Next year will be a big test for Molina, as it is probable he will see his innings restriction lifted. More innings will result in more exposure and more lineups seeing him for a 3rd time during his starts. It will be important for Molina to futher develop his breaking pitch.

RHP Deck McGuire, Double-A New Hampshire
9-5, 125.1 IP, 109 H, 42 ER, 13 HR, 45 BB, 124 K
3.02 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 2.76 K/BB, 8.90 K/9, 0.86 GO/AO

The Blue Jays 2010 first round pick had a successful debut season. Despite his polish, he was assigned to High-A Dunedin out of spring training and cut Florida State League hitters apart. In late July he received a well deserved promotion to join a loaded Fisher Cats pitching staff, but unfortunately was hit by a line drive in his August 7th start which forced him to the minor league disabled list for the rest of the month. His Double-A numbers were not on par with his High-A numbers, with the biggest issue being home runs. In 104.2 innings with Dunedin, McGuire allowed 9 home runs. In only 20.2 innings with the Cats, he allowed 4 home runs. This was likely a combination of small sample size and an adjustment period to a new level, but it will be something to monitor when he spends most of his 2012 season with New Hampshire.

The winner:

In addition to having arguably the best statistical season, Drew Hutchison took the biggest developmental strides, all while advancing through three levels in the Blue Jays minor league system. For these reason, Hutch is Toronto's Minor League Pitcher of the Year. He entered the year under the radar of most, but 2012 will be a much different story. The spotlight is now focused on him, and Hutchison must prove that this year was no fluke by continuing his success over a full year in Double-A with the pressure of a possible major league callup hanging over him.

The Minor League Hitter of the Year can be found here.

Trade Target: Kendrys Morales

Name: Kendrys Morales
Position: First Base
Team: Los Angeles Angels
2012 Opening Day age: 27
Contract: Entering second arbitration year
Service time: 4+ years

Scouting Report:

Kendrys Morales is a switch hitter who has shown a plus bat and plus power from both sides of the plate. He displayed these tools in his breakout 2009 season, as he put together a .924 OPS with 43 doubles and 34 home runs. He hit both lefties and righties well, with an .801 OPS and .962 OPS respectively. Morales has a decent approach at the plate, but his career 6.9% walk rate is fairly low considering his career 16.5% strikeout rate. He is a solid defensive first baseman, but like most bigger players he is awful on the basepaths. In addition to clogging the bases for runners behind him, he is a career 27% (4/15) base stealer. A home plate celebration after an Angels walk-off victory in May of 2010 ended in a fluke broken leg for Morales, and due to a setback earlier this season he has still not returned to baseball.

2011 Statistics:

N/A -- did not play due to injury

Why Toronto would want him:

When healthy, Morales is an impact bat in the middle of the lineup. While Edwin Encarnacion has shown he might be capable of handling either first base or designated hitter in 2012, Adam Lind has not done enough to prove he is worthy of a starting job. Lind will most likely finish 2011 with a sub-.300 OBP for the second consecutive year while accumulating 0.7 WAR. Those are disgusting numbers, especially given that Lind has served primarily as Toronto's cleanup hitter for the entire year. Morales could stablize the position for atleast 2 years without having to offer him a long term contract, and likely wouldn't require a significant prospect package given his injury history.

Why Los Angeles might trade him:

The Angels have two good reasons to trade Morales. The first is Mark Trumbo. In Morales' absense, Trumbo had stepped in and stablized the position for Los Angeles and is a contender for the American League Rookie of the Year Award. The second reason is the Angels outfield. Vernon Wells and Torii Hunter are under contract for a few years, while Peter Bourjos and top prospect Mike Trout are also in need of at-bats for development. Even with Abreu gone in 2012, that's still four players fighting for three outfield spots. The Angels are unlikely to trade Bourjos or Trout, while Wells and Hunter are basically untradeable. If the fourth outfielder becomes the designated hitter, then Los Angeles are unable to play both Trumbo and Morales -- ergo they must trade one of the two.

Trade Target: Howie Kendrick

Name: Howie Kendrick
Position: Second Base
Team: Los Angeles Angels
2012 Opening Day age: 28
Contract: Entering final arbitration year
Service time: 5+ years

Scouting Report:

Howie Kendrick is a great all-around player but his best tool is by far his bat, though the results haven't really shown up as expected. As he ascended the ranks of the Angels farm system, 70-plus grades were placed on his bat, with many considering him a possible future batting champion. The statistics were staggering, bordering upon ridiculous -- Kendrick was a career .360 hitter in the minor leagues. This wasn't a sample size issue either -- that batting average came across 1618 minor league at-bats. While he hasn't translated that success to the major leagues, he's still hitting a highly respectable .293 for his career. Kendrick has a 50 power tool to go with his 70-ish bat, which has resulted in consistent 10-20 home run seasons. He's a strong base runner as well, as evident by his 10-15 stolen bases every year. In terms of defense, Kendrick is rated as baseball's best second baseman in 2011, and has been well above average every year except 2010 according to advanced defensive metrics.

2011 Statistics:

531 AB, .286/.339/.467 (.806 OPS), 30 2B, 6 3B, 18 HR, 63 RBI, 14 SB, 32/116 BB/K

Why Toronto would want him:

It is no secret that Toronto has no MLB-calibre second baseman under contract for the 2012 season, and the free agent market is extremely thin. Kelly Johnson is probably the most likely candidate, however if he declines arbitration and signs elsewhere, Toronto will have a glaring need. Kendrick would cost a couple of good prospects but he would be a monstrous upgrade over anyone Toronto has fielded since Aaron Hill in his huge season (though Kendrick's 5.9 WAR 2011 still exceeds Hill's 4.1 WAR 2009). Howie Kendrick could hit 6th or 7th in the lineup, in a position where he could drive in runs with his plus bat and power. While he is entering his final year of arbitration, his 2012 salary should still be a manageable figure in the 5-6M range. Toronto could (and should) seek an extension with Kendrick if they were to acquire him, but even if they aren't able to reach a deal they could offer him arbitration as he entered free agency and receive draft pick compensation, as Kendrick currently profiles as a Type-A free agent (and barring a collapse in 2012 would retain that status).

Why Los Angeles might trade him:

The reasons the Angels might trade Kendrick is a rather short list, and they have nothing to do with talent. While the Angels have deep pockets, they have a lot of veterans under long-term contracts already and have some good positional players coming through the system. The biggest question for Los Angeles will be whether or not they want to lock up yet another position player and continue to block top prospects. The Angels have first base (Trumbo, Morales?) and shortstop (Aybar) locked up as well as Maicer Izturis who is cheap and capable of playing any infield position. On the farm, they have a future stud second baseman in Jean Segura (57th on Baseball America's 2011 Top 100) and a potential solid third baseman in Kaleb Cowart. Despite having a ton of outfield depth, Kendrick is already playing some left field for the Angels, possibly indicating they are making room for Segura within the next year. If Los Angeles feel Segura is the real deal, they may not be comfortable locking up Kendrick, and could make him available for trade over the winter.

Minor League Hitter of the Year

With the minor league seasons having reached completion, it is time to determine the Blue Jays minor league players of the year -- both hitter and pitcher. Unlike previous years, there are a wealth of candidates for these awards thanks to the overall depth of the farm system. In addition to the shear number of prospects, many of the high upside prospects had big years, causing the farm to look even better.

The candidates:

3B Brett Lawrie, Triple-A Las Vegas
300 AB, .347/.414/.647 (1.060 OPS), 24 2B, 6 3B, 18 HR, 62 RBI, 13 SB, 26/54 BB/K

Two major factors may have sabotaged Lawrie's chances to be the Blue Jays minor league hitter of the year. The first -- a hit-by-pitch suffered in a game in late May. Lawrie was having a truly insane month -- 1.170 OPS, 11 doubles, 3 triples, 11 home runs, and 14 walks. Reports were being leaked and discussed that a major league promotion was on the horizon for Lawrie, but the bruised hand was discovered to be a broken hand which resulted in 6 weeks on the minor league disabled list. Lawrie made his return in mid-July and picked up exactly where he left off, with a 1.122 OPS in the month which once again drove Blue Jays fans to demand the promotion of their much heralded top prospect. He finally received the big league call in early August, and he wouldn't play another minor league game after that. Between the aformentioned hand injury and the late season promotion, Lawrie only accumulated 300 minor league at-bats, which really cripples his chances. With 500 AB he's likely a shoe-in, but instead, he has a lot of competition.

C Travis d'Arnaud, Double-A New Hampshire
424 AB, .311/.371/.542 (.914 OPS), 33 2B, 1 3B, 21 HR, 78 RBI, 4 SB, 33/100 BB/K

The first of two Fisher Cat candidates, d'Arnaud made a monstrous leap as a prospect in 2011, finally putting some numbers behind the tools that scouts have been drooling over for years. d'Arnaud put his injury plagued debut season with Toronto behind him and helped lead New Hampshire to the Eastern League championship. Later named the Eastern League MVP, d'Arnaud put together a well rounded season that displayed his bat, power, and plate approach. Beyond the statistics, his defense received positive reviews, and assuming his back injuries are behind him he should have no difficulties staying behind the plate long term. d'Arnaud has developed himself from a mid-tier prospect in the Blue Jays system into arguably the best catcher in the minor leagues and Toronto's best prospect overall.

CF Anthony Gose, Double-A New Hampshire
509 AB, .253/.349/.415 (.763 OPS), 20 2B, 7 3B, 16 HR, 59 RBI, 70 SB, 62/154 BB/K

Progression was apparent in Gose' 2011 season, but his flaws were still very evident. The recently turned 21 year old has already played in three full seasons in the minor leagues as a former highschool pick, which speaks to the age discrepancy he has constantly fought through to post the numbers he has. The above statistics were collected while facing pitchers typically 1-4 years older than him, which does in a sense justify some of the strikeouts. Regardless, Gose made three substantial improvements to his game this year. First, after struggling to post ISO numbers over 100 through his career, Gose saw his power take a step forward, smashing 16 home runs with a 162 ISO. Second, Gose became a much more polished base stealer, improving his ratio from 58% (45/77) to 82% (70/85). Finally, he improved his walk rate for the third straight year, from 6.1% in 2009 to 8.1% in 2010 to 10.6% in 2011.

CF Jake Marisnick, Single-A Lansing
462 AB, .320/.392/.496 (.888 OPS), 27 2B, 6 3B, 14 HR, 77 RBI, 37 SB, 43/91 BB/K

Much like Travis d'Arnaud, Marisnick took the big step towards putting some numbers behind his jaw-dropping tools. The term is thrown around rather loosely, but Marisnick is a true 5-tool talent. What makes that even more impressive is that he displays these tools while playing centerfield. Marisnick's batting line looks impressive, but what is truly incredible is the consistency he displayed over his 118 games. On a month-to-month basis, Marisnick posted a .900+ OPS in three months (April, July, August), an .800+ OPS in one month (June), and a .700+ OPS in one month (May). In other words -- at best he played like an MVP, and at worst he played like a league average player -- and he played like the former far more often than the latter. Not only did Marisnick experience personal success, he led the Lansing Lugnuts to the Midwest League championship, though they failed to capture the title. Marisnick has flown up the prospect charts and has established himself as a legitimate top 5 prospect in the system, and possible top 50 in all of baseball.

The winner:

While the other three candidates all had outstanding seasons, I have to give the award to Jake Marisnick. Each of the other prospects had some factor working against them, while Marisnick was nearly flawless in his blitzkreig through the Midwest League. As an incredible athlete, the ceiling is limitless if he continues to show he can hit and hit for power. Marisnick will take his talents to Dunedin in 2012 and look to prove that this year was no fluke.

The Minor League Pitcher of the Year can be found here.

Top 15 Prospect Review: Pitchers

#2: RHP Kyle Drabek

(MLB) 4-5, 5.47 ERA, 1.73 WHIP, 75.2 IP, 78 H, 46 ER, 53 BB, 51 K
(AAA) 5-4, 7.44 ERA, 2.03 WHIP, 75 IP, 111 H, 62 ER, 41 BB, 45 K

2011 Breakdown:

Prospect analysts are extremely happy that Drabek surpassed the inning limit to be eligible as a rookue (and thus no longer a prospect), because after the season Drabek has had, nobody knows what to think of him. Expectations were high entering the season as the #4 starter, but after a dominant first outing of the year against the Twins, Drabek's year fell apart. He completely lost his control, abandoned his dominanting curveball, and saw himself demoted to the minors. Incredibly, things actually got worse for Drabek in Las Vegas. At this point it's hard to have confidence in Drabek as top of the rotation starter, but luckily the slate will be clean in 2012 and he can try to re-establish himself. As a former top prospect and the pitcher acquired in the Roy Halladay trade, Drabek should deservingly be given every opportunity.

2012 Prospect Status: N/A (graduated from prospect status)

#5: RHP Deck McGuire

(AA) 2-1, 4.35 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 20.2 IP, 20 H, 10 ER, 7 BB, 22 K
(A+) 7-4, 2.75 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 104.2 IP, 89 H, 32 ER, 38 BB, 102 K

2011 Breakdown:

In his first professional year, Deck McGuire cruised through the Florida State League before earning a midseason promotion to the New Hampshire Fisher Cats. McGuire suffered a leg injury 4 games into his Double-A career, forcing him to miss the remainder of the regular season. When he was drafted back in the summer of 2010, McGuire was touted as a polished pitcher with four average to above average pitches and above average command who should progress through the minors quickly. Despite the injury, McGuire's 2011 season proved he can already handle the upper minors, and should see his major league debut sooner than later. While McGuire lacks the ceiling of some of Toronto's arms, his polish is second to none among this group.

2012 Prospect Status: Rising

#7: RHP Zach Stewart

(MLB) 2-5, 4.97 ERA, 1.52 WHIP, 63.1 IP, 78 H, 35 ER, 18 BB, 44 K
(AA) 5-5, 4.20 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, 94.1 IP, 106 H, 44 ER, 27 BB, 74 K

2011 Breakdown:

After a solid albeit unspectacular 2010 season in the Eastern League, Stewart was surprisingly re-assigned there at the end of spring training. He failed to match his 2010 production, though he did pitch well enough to make his big league debut as an injury replacement. Stewart was traded to the Chicago White Sox in late July as part of the Edwin Jackson - Colby Rasmus trade, and has since burned up the remainder of his rookie eligibility. Whether Stewart will be a back end starter or reliever is still up in the air, but that determination now belongs to the White Sox.

2012 Prospect Status: N/A (graduated from prospect status, traded to CHW)

#9: RHP Aaron Sanchez

(A-) 0-1, 4.63 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 11.2 IP, 8 H, 6 ER, 8 BB, 13 K
(R) 3-2, 5.48 ERA, 1.48 WHIP, 42.2 IP, 45 H, 26 ER, 18 BB, 43 K

2011 Breakdown:

Still in short-season ball, Sanchez had a very mixed season. Similar to his debut 2010 season the strikeouts were there, but Sanchez still struggled locating the strikezone and got hit around more than you'd like to see from a prospect with stuff like he has. The biggest positive from the season was that he stayed healthy and managed to put a decent amount of professional innings on his arm, creating the possibility of a Lansing assignment next spring. The step from short-season to full-season ball is a big one for a pitcher, and Sanchez could be doing it under a big spotlight. He might be joining a Lugnuts pitching rotation that will include Noah Syndergaard and Justin Nicolino, two of Toronto's breakout arms of 2011.

2012 Prospect Status: Comparable

#10: RHP Asher Wojciechowski

(A+) 11-9, 4.70 ERA, 1.43 WHIP, 130.1 IP, 156 H, 68 ER, 31 BB, 96 K

2011 Breakdown:

Wojo had himself a bipolar 2011 season. When he was good, he was awesome. When he was bad, he didn't belong on a baseball diamond. In April, July, August, and September, Wojciechowski went 9-2 with a 2.56 ERA and 1.19 WHIP. In the middle months of May and June, he went 2-7 with a 7.81 ERA and 1.79 WHIP. Many scouts believe Wojciechowski would be better utilized as a reliever, as even though he is built like an ox (6'4", 230 lbs), he lacks a strong 3rd pitch and his fastball can flatten out when he gets tired. Wojo could split 2012 between Dunedin and New Hampshire out start in Double-A outright, but either way it's very likely he'll be moved to the bullpen late in the season unless he really starts to dominate hitters.

2012 Prospect Status: Comparable

#14: RHP Drew Hutchison

(AA) 3-0, 1.20 ERA, 0.80 WHIP, 15 IP, 10 H, 2 ER, 2 BB, 21 K
(A+) 5-3, 2.74 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, 62.1 IP, 42 H, 19 ER, 14 BB, 66 K
(A) 6-2, 2.63 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 72 IP, 68 H, 21 ER, 19 BB, 84 K

2011 Breakdown:

Drew Hutchison had the best season of any pitching prospect in the Blue Jays system, raising his status from organizational afterthought to possible top 50 in baseball. Hutch cruised all the way from Single-A Lansing up to Double-A New Hampshire, where he was eventually shut down during the Eastern League playoffs after reaching his innings limit for the season (149.1). Hutchison's season was highlighted by a first-half scoreless streak of six plus starts. His 174 strikeouts were the most of any Blue Jays farmhand this year, while his ERA (2.53), WHIP (1.04), and opposing average (.220) each ranked second.

2012 Prospect Status: Rising

#15: RHP Chad Jenkins

(AA) 5-7, 4.13 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 100.1 IP, 93 H, 46 ER, 27 BB, 74 K
(A+) 4-5, 3.07 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 67.1 IP, 71 H, 23 ER, 14 BB, 44 K

2011 Breakdown:

Jenkins improved on his debut 2010 season with his 2011 numbers, but once again failed to prove he is going to be anything more than a back of the rotation innings eater -- not that there's anything wrong with that. Jenkins is a sinkerballer which will always inhibit the number of strikeouts he will accumulate, but he continued to limit base runners (2.20 BB/9, 1.22 WHIP) which bodes well for future success. The Blue Jays have a lot of high risk arms (Morrow, McGowan, Drabek, Alvarez to an extent), so a dependable pitcher like Jenkins could definitely find a niche on this team in the future.

2012 Prospect Status: Comparable

The Yu Darvish situation

Much like Prince Fielder, Yu Darvish is a name that has been tossed around by Blue Jays fans this summer as a possible acquisition in the offseason. I think to get a better perspective on the Yu Darvish situation, four questions must be asked;

How much would he cost?

As a Japanese player still under contract in the Nippon Professional Baseball League, Yu Darvish must pass through the posting system before a contract can be negotiated. The posting system is a pseudo silent auction for MLB teams where they are allowed to place a bid on the player during the posting window. Once the window closes, the team who placed the largest bid will win the negotiating rights to that player. At that point, the team has 30 days to agree to a contract with the player. If no contract is agreed upon, the player is returned to his Japanese club, and the Major League club retains their posting fee.

Starting with Alejandro Quezada and Timo Perez on February 2nd, 1999, 15 players have attempted to reach Major League Baseball through 17 posting process cases. While some did not receive any bids, and others had insignificant posting fees, there are 7 cases where the winning bid was greater than 4 million dollars:

November 2000: Ichiro Suzuki (Mariners) -- 13.125M
January 2002: Kazuhisa Ishi (Dodgers) -- 11.26M
November 2006: Daisuke Matsuzaka (Red Sox) -- 51.111M
November 2006: Akinori Iwamura (Devil Rays) -- 4.5M
November 2006: Kei Igawa (Yankees) -- 26M
November 2010: Tsuyoshi Nishioka (Twins) -- 5.329M
November 2010: Hisashi Iwakuma (Athletics) -- 19.1M **

** -- Iwakuma and the Athletics could not agree to terms on a contract.

Teams who are interested in bidding on Yu Darvish will immediately draw comparisons to Daisuke Matsuzaka. At the time of his posting, Matsuzaka was 25 years old but had already pitched 8 seasons in the NPBL, totalling 1402.2 innings. He led the league in strikeouts four times (2000, 2001, 2003, 2005) and ERA twice (2003, 2004). Entering 2011, Darvish had equally if not more impressive career statistics, with a 2.12 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, and 974 strikeouts in 1036.1 innings. He has bested those numbers in 2011, with a 1.47 ERA, 0.83 ERA, and 223 strikeouts in 190 innings. Beyond the statistics, Darvish has size in his favor, standing 6 feet 5 inches tall and weighing 185 pounds, whereas Matsuzaka stands only 6 feet tall while weighing the same.

That brings us to the question of the size of posting fee. While Darvish has the numbers and size on his side, he has history working against him. Five years into his six year deal, Matsuzaka has completely failed to live up to the lofty expectations, with a career 4.25 ERA and 1.40 WHIP. While he has maintained the strikeouts (career 8.2 K/9, though declining in recent years), Matsuzaka's biggest problem was that he completely lost his control while facing the more patient North American hitters (career 4.4 BB/9).

With that being said, it is impossible to predict the exact posting fee. We don't know who will be making a bid (and likely won't until the actual bid is submitted), and we don't know how aggressive those teams will be after seeing the Red Sox and Yankees burned by Matsuzaka and Igawa in 2006. The posting fee could be anywhere between 25 million and 60 million, though if I were forced to make a prediction I'd go slightly below the midpoint and suggest 40 million.

After the posting fee is sorted out, the contract must be agreed upon. Given his age and the potential size of the posting fee, the winning team will likely want to sign him to a long term deal in order to make the total annual salary more justifiable. Six years would probably be the target, with the total contract being in the 40 to 60 million dollar range. Something quite similar to Matsuzaka's 6/52 contract is also entirely possible.

When the posting fee and contract are combined, the low end appears to be 65 million over 6 years and the high end 120 million. My best estimate would be 92 million total spread over the 6 years.

Will he succeed in the Major Leagues?

Japanese starting pitchers do not have a strong history of success in the major leagues. Matsuzaka was decent for a short while but then fell on his face. Kei Igawa has spent almost his entire career in the minor leagues since coming over to North America. The most successful Japanese import could be Hideo Nomo. Nomo pitched 12 seasons in the major leagues, though much like Matsuzaka his best years were his first two years. What separates Hideo Nomo from the rest of the pack of Japanese pitchers is his longevity, pitching nearly 2000 innings in the major leagues. As his career went on, Nomo experienced much of what Matsuzaka has suffered through more recently, with increased walk rates crippling his consistently high strikeout rates.

While the history isn't in his favor, I firmly believe Darvish can have success in Major League Baseball. Both Nomo and Matsuzaka have proven that strikeout rates can carry over from the NPBL to MLB, the biggest hurdle to conquer is controlling the strikezone and limiting walks. I believe this favors Darvish (career 2.40 BB/9, 1.42 BB/9 in 2011) as he has far better command than Matsuzaka or Nomo have/had. Yu Darvish has stuff, the command, and the size you'd like to see out of a starting pitcher. While he may not be a true ace like his NPBL numbers suggest he could be, Darvish should easily be a #2 pitcher in the major leagues.

Do the Blue Jays need him?

Need is a funny word in baseball, as an organization's needs can change dramatically so easily. A need can be created by an injury to a player or simply by a player who was counted on failing to live up expectations. At the same time, a need can be extinguished by a player suddenly playing over his head and taking on more responsibility, or by a prospect being called up from the minor leagues to fill a void.

Toronto currently has a lot of pitching depth in the major leagues (Romero, Morrow, Cecil, Alvarez, Drabek), the upper minor leagues (Hutchison, McGuire, Molina, Jenkins), and even in the low minor leagues (Syndergaard, Nicolino, Norris). On the surface, pitching would not appear to be a big need. However, in 2011 alone, Morrow and Cecil failed to take the next step while Kyle Drabek fell on his face, causing Toronto's team ERA to sink to 4.37 (11th in AL, 25th in MLB). While things should get better in 2012, a pitcher like Darvish would be a huge shot in the arm for this pitching staff, and would create more opportunities for the club in the trade market. General Manager Alex Anthopolous is obviously at least receptive to this idea, as he recently took a personal scouting trip to Japan to watch Darvish pitch.

Is the risk worth it?

While it may sound crazy, getting involved in Yu Darvish is absolutely risk free, and only a fool would neglect the opportunity to get a pitcher of this magnitude. The most important aspect of the posting process is that the winning team does not have to spend a dime unless they are comfortable with what they are paying. Toronto has every reason to make an aggressive bid for Yu Darvish. If we were to win the bid, we have an exclusive negotiating window with one of the top prizes of the offseason. If both sides can agree to a contract that the front office feels is fiscally responsibile, we have ourselves a top of the rotation pitcher. If we fail to reach an agreement, then Darvish goes back to Japan for at least one more year, and we blocked our rivals from acquiring an asset.

The only way you can burn yourself through the posting process is through poor player evaluation coupled with foolish spending habits, neither of which are traits our front office has shown to have. I would be comfortable with anything up to what Boston paid for Matsuzaka -- 6 years, 103 million total. Beyond the productivity, Darvish brings a country of investors and baseball fans, and Rogers Communications Inc. loves potential investors. Finally, and perhaps least importantly, it would send a message to the casual Blue Jays fans in Toronto (and the rest of Canada) who "want the team to spend some money" that this team is competitive and has a legitimate shot at the playoffs in the very near future, and hopefully bring them to the ballpark once again.

Top 15 Prospect Review: Hitters

#1: 3B Brett Lawrie

(MLB) 125 AB, .312/.386/.656 (1.042 OPS), 8 2B, 4 3B, 9 HR, 23 RBI, 6 SB, 13/25 BB/K
(AAA) 292 AB, .353/.415/.661 (1.076 OPS), 24 2B, 6 3B, 18 HR, 61 RBI, 13 SB, 26/53 BB/K

2011 Breakdown: After being acquired from the Brewers in the offseason, high expectations were placed upon Brett Lawrie. Lawrie was a true top-prospect, and as a Canadian, Blue Jays fans had hopes he could become the next Canadian superstar, like Morneau and Votto before him. Lawrie met those lofty expectations and then some, and likely would have won the AL Rookie of the Year if not for a broken hand in June that caused him to miss nearly two months. Lawrie has already moved up from 8th to 5th (on occasion) in the batting order, which suggests John Farrell will remove the kid gloves in 2012 and let the world see what Brett can do.

2012 Prospect status: N/A (graduated from prospect status)

#3: C J.P. Arencibia

(MLB) 398 AB, .219/.278/.447 (.725 OPS), 17 2B, 4 3B, 22 HR, 72 RBI, 1 SB, 31/124 BB/K

2011 Breakdown: Arencibia was called up in late 2010, but Cito Gaston's insistence on playing free agent-to-be John Buck dramatically cut down Arencibia's playing time, which left him as a huge question mark entering 2011. Arencibia started off hot, but has struggled throughout the rest of the year. His 7.1 walk percentage is a pleasant surprise, and ranks 4th among current Blue Jays regulars. Arencibia's biggest problem has been strikeouts, and while they may always been an issue with his uppercut swing, reducing his strikeout rate from its current 28.5% to around 20% would make a huge improvement in his overall batting numbers.

2012 Prospect status: N/A (graduated from prospect status)

#4: CF Anthony Gose

(AA) 509 AB, .253/.349/.415 (.763 OPS), 20 2B, 7 3B, 16 HR, 59 RBI, 70 SB, 62/154 BB/K

2011 Breakdown: Gose spent the entire 2011 season as the starting centerfielder for the prospect-rich New Hampshire Fishers Cats ball club. While strikeouts were still an issue, his 10.6% walk rate and 70/85 (82.4%) stolen base numbers give hope that he could hit near the top of a major league lineup at some point in the future. The batting numbers remained near his career averages -- subpar, but he did see an unexpected spike in his power numbers, more than doubling his previous career high in home runs. Some have attributed this to a short right field porch in his home stadium, however he hit 7 of his 16 home runs on the road. Additionally, many reports of his home park home runs have described them as bombs.

2012 Prospect status: Rising

#6: C Travis d'Arnaud

(AA) 424 AB, .311/.371/.542 (.914 OPS), 33 2B, 1 3B, 21 HR, 78 RBI, 4 SB, 33/100 BB/K

2011 Breakdown: When considering position, d'Arnaud had perhaps the best overall season by any Toronto hitting prospect in 2011. d'Arnaud had always been known as a player with all the tools to be a great catcher, but the numbers had never lived up to the hype. That all came to an end in 2011. d'Arnaud stayed healthy for nearly the entire season, and put together a batting line deserving of the Eastern League MVP award. d'Arnaud has shot up prospects list during the year, and is now arguably the top catching prospect in all of baseball (most experts are split on d'Arnaud and Devin Mesoraco of the Reds). With the graduation of Toronto's top three prospects, d'Arnaud has a legitimate chance to bear the title of Toronto's number one minor leaguer.

2012 Prospect status: Rising

#8: C Carlos Perez

(A) 383 AB, .256/.320/.355 (.675 OPS), 17 2B, 6 3B, 3 HR, 41 RBI, 6 SB, 37/74 BB/K

2011 Breakdown: Carlos Perez was a huge disappointment in 2011. He had shown all of the tools you could want from a catcher in his first three professional seasons, but that did not remain true this year. With a young player like Perez, the biggest hope is that he can translate those tools from short-season ball to full-year ball. The reason for Perez' drop-off in production is impossible to know without being around the team all year, but one can only hope it's fatigue related, not ability related. 2012 will be a huge test for Perez to re-establish himself, but at this point some of his prospect shine has worn off.

2012 Prospect status: Diminishing

#11: CF Jake Marisnick

(A) 462 AB, .320/.392/.496 (.888 OPS), 27 2B, 6 3B, 14 HR, 77 RBI, 37 SB, 43/91 BB/K

2011 Breakdown: Much like d'Arnaud, Marisnick took the huge step of translating tools into legitimate production. Marisnick has always been known as an athlete and a guy "who looks good in a uniform", but he became a baseball player in 2011. Recently named one of Kevin Goldstein's 10 most interesting prospect stories of the year, he mentions how Marisnick is one of the few players you can call a true 5-tool talent without looking like an idiot. In addition to posting an awesome batting line, Marisnick racked up the cumulative stats all year, totalling 47 extra base hits and 37 stolen bases. Perhaps the most impressive aspect of Marisnick's season was his ability to avoid slumps. In his worst month of the year, May, he still managed a respectable .713 OPS. He had an .800+ OPS in the other four full months.

2012 Prospect status: Rising

#12: SS Adeiny Hechavarria

(AAA) 108 AB, .389/.431/.537 (.968 OPS), 6 2B, 2 3B, 2 HR, 11 RBI, 1 SB, 8/21 BB/K
(AA) 464 AB, .235/.275/.347 (.622 OPS), 22 2B, 6 3B, 6 HR, 46 RBI, 19 SB, 25/78 BB/K

2011 Breakdown: A lot was expected from Hechavarria, and for the most part he failed to deliver. After hitting .273/.305/.360 in New Hampshire in 2010 after a midseason callup, it was hoped Hech could match or even exceed those numbers in his second go around with the Fisher Cats. The opposite happened. Hechavarria's batting line plummeted to .235/.275/.347 in 2011. Despite this, he was promoted to Las Vegas late in the year to work with hitting coach Chad Mottola. He did have a strong month with the 51's, but it's exactly that, a month. If Hechavarria wants to re-establish his prospect status, he'll need to show something with the bat in 2012, and string together those strong months into something tangible.

2012 Prospect status: Diminishing

#13: LF Eric Thames

(MLB) 304 AB, .263/.311/.457 (.768 OPS), 21 2B, 4 3B, 10 HR, 32 RBI, 2 SB, 18/73 BB/K
(AAA) 210 AB, .352/.423/.610 (1.033 OPS), 25 2B, 4 2B, 7 HR, 45 RBI, 5 SB, 23/41 BB/K

2011 Breakdown: Like Lawrie, Thames split the year between Las Vegas and Toronto. However, unlike Brett Lawrie, Thames has struggled at times to make the adjustment to the more talented pitching. Despite never posting a walk rate below 8.9% in his minor league career, Thames is walking in only 5.5% of his plate appearances while striking out in 22.2% of his appearances -- not a great combination. While the power Thames has displayed has been impressive (his ISO of .194 is currently 4th among the Blue Jays starters), and his 22.7% line drive rate equally so, it's hard to project Thames as anything more than a .260-.270 hitter in the major leagues. Thames stole Travis Snider's left field job in the summer, and it's likely only one of the two will make the squad out of Spring Training. It should be an interesting battle to watch.

2012 Prospect status: N/A (graduated from prospect status)

The Prodigal Son returns

On July 8th, 2008, Dustin McGowan left his start against the Orioles with soreness in his shoulder. Little did Blue Jays fans know at the time, but that would be the last time we would see Dustin on the Rogers Centre turf for more than three years.

At the time, McGowan was finally establishing himself as a pitcher. After struggling with relief roles and bouncing to and from the minor league in 2005 and 2006, McGowan was handed the reins of a rotation spot in May 2007. He started with a trio of ugly starts, but McGowan began put it together. His 5.90 April ERA and 4.54 June ERA were countered by strong second half. In 15 starts after the All Star break, McGowan threw 98 innings and accumulated 87 strikeouts, while pitching to a 3.67 ERA and 1.14 WHIP.

The 2008 season appeared to have a lot of promise. The staff ace, Roy Halladay, was poised for another run at a Cy Young. Mercenary for hire, AJ Burnett, was in the opt-out year of his contract, so big things were expected. Behind those two, the Blue Jays had two young pitchers in Dustin McGowan and Shaun Marcum ready to establish their legitimacy. The season went off-course with the McGowan injury, and was completely derailed a month later when Marcum also went down with an elbow injury. While Marcum did miss the entire 2009 season, his injury, surgery, and rehab was relatively straight forward, as Tommy John surgery has become so common the recovery rate is near 100%. McGowan, on the other hand...

July 2008 -- Season-ending surgery to repair fraying in right shoulder labrum
July 2009 -- Season-ending surgery to repair articular cartilage damage in knee
June 2010 -- Season-ending surgery to repair torn rotator cuff in right shoulder

While the July 2009 knee surgery only required 6 weeks for recovery, it happened so late in the season that McGowan rehabilitation program had to be shut down. Unlike Tommy John, a surgery in which a ligament is taken from the leg and grafted into the elbow to replace the torn UCL, shoulder surgeries are a lot more complex and the history of successful recoveries is a much shorter list. A lot of this has to due with elbows being a simple hinge joint (like a knee), while shoulders are a socket joint (like a hip).

Leading up to his return on September 6th, McGowan had a long and intense minor league rehab assignment. While he did not pitch many innings, the Blue Jays had him working on regular starter rest, pitching every 5th day with a minor league starter piggy-backing the rest of his games. He made 7 starts with Dunedin and 5 starts with New Hampshire, totalling 35.1 innings. McGowan pitched well, posting a 35/14 K/BB ratio as well as a 2.80 ERA and 1.27 WHIP. The results, along with his health, lead to a September callup that Dustin had probably been dreaming about every night for the past three years.

While the sample size is extremely small (merely 74 pitches), McGowan appears to have maintained the quality of stuff than had people declaring him as a future top of the rotation starter back in 07/08. His fastball displayed similar velocity and movement (93.9 mph in 2011, 94.3 mph in 2008). His power slider is actually coming in harder (88.2 mph in 2011, 87.6 mph in 2008), but is slightly flatter. His curveball much the same, though both instances could be the result of nerves causing him to overthrow. The biggest change in his arsenal is his changeup. McGowan is throwing it nearly twice as often (13.5% in 2011, 7.6% in 2008), mostly at the expense of his fastball, and it is breaking more than it ever has. The issue of small sample size cannot be emphasized enough, but McGowan PitchFx data will definitely be something to monitor as he works every 5th day for the remainder of the season.


The question is, what can we expect from McGowan now and in the future? Both he and the front office have stated they believe it would be easier to maintain his health if he has the steady routine of a starter, but have both also left the door open for an audition as the closer. I was on the closer bandwagon, as outlined in this post, but after watching McGowan pitch to the Red Sox, I am certainly intrigued with the possibility of him returning to the rotation. If the Blue Jays do allow him to the start in 2012, I expect him to have extremely strict pitch and inning limits throughout the season, as he has barely thrown over the past three years. I do expect that if McGowan starts the year in the rotation, he will eventually be moved to the bullpen somewhere around the All Star break in an effort to protect his arm for the future.

Regardless of the outcome, McGowan's story is a great one and I wish it received more publicity in the United States than it has. In my 15 years or so of being a sports fan, I can't think of an athlete who has gone over three years without playing a game due to a series of serious injures, but has fought through them in pursuit of the game he loves. In a perfect world, McGowan would put stay healthy and put together a strong season, helping to lead the 2012 Toronto Blue Jays to the playoffs for the first time in 19 years. Whether or not that comes true is impossible to know, but a guy can dream, can't he?

A look back at past drafts

It is a widely accepted theory that in order to accurately analyze a baseball draft, four or five years need to pass. This is because, unlike the other three major sports (NFL, NHL, NBA), baseball draftees do not immediately step into the major leagues. College draftees usually spend between one and three years in the minor leagues before seeing the majors, while highschool draftees can take upwards of five or six years to make their debut.

The first half of the decade saw a regime change, as long time General Manager Gord Ash (who was known for his strong drafts) was replaced after the 2001 season in favor of one of Billy Beane's understudies, J.P. Ricciardi. Ricciardi was known for his eye for talent, and declared that acquiring amateur talent through the draft would be his method of overthrowing the AL East powers and finally bringing Toronto back to the playoffs.

While the story of J.P. Ricciardi's egotisical dictatorship in Toronto is an interesting one, we shall instead look at how he, and his predecessor Gord Ash, did in acquiring talent through the draft from the turn of the millenium through 2007.

2000:

Top draftee: CF Miguel Negron (1st round, 18th overall)
Best pick: RHP Dustin McGowan (Supplemental 1st round)

Miguel Negron was easily the worst 1st round pick on this list, but given how poor the 2000 draft ended up being, it's hard to fault the front office. Of the 40 first round and supplemental first round picks, only three went on to become All Stars (Adrian Gonzalez, Chase Utley, Adam Wainwright), and only Wainwright was drafted after Negron. McGowan was the prize for Toronto in this draft. After struggling to reach the majors, McGowan put it all together in 2007, pitching to a 3.79 xFIP and 3.9 fWAR. McGowan was on his way to another 3+ fWAR season in 2008 until he went down with a series of serious arm issues, and hasn't seen the majors since.

2001:

Top draftee: LF Gabe Gross (1st round, 15th overall)
Best pick: RHP Brandon League (2nd round)

When the highlight of your draft is a relief pitcher who has totalled a 3.58 xFIP and 2.9 fWAR over parts of 8 major league seasons, you know the draft went poorly. Neither Gross or League ever amounted to much in Toronto, and their biggest impact may be who they brought back in trades. Gross was traded along with two pitchers to Milwaukee for Lyle Overbay, who had a strong 2006 season (.880 OPS) and helped Toronto take 2nd place in the AL East for the first time this decade. Brandon League was traded to Seattle in a three player deal that brought Brandon Morrow (6.7 fWAR in ~300 IP) to Toronto.

2002:

Top draftee: SS Russ Adams (1st round, 14th overall)
Best pick: RHP Dave Bush (2nd round)

The 2002 draft was yet another that did not yield much in terms of talent for Toronto, though the rest of baseball made out alright. The three picks immediately after Russ Adams (15th, 16th, and 17th overall) all produced future All Stars in Scott Kazmir, Nick Swisher, and Cole Hamels. For comparison, Russ Adams produced a career -0.9 fWAR. The other three players produced 16.8, 23.0, and 23.4 fWAR respectively. Dave Bush, a 2nd rounder, was Toronto's best pick of the draft. Bush produced 3.5 fWAR in parts of 2 seasons for the Blue Jays before being shipped to Milwaukee in the Lyle Overbay trade. He gave Milwaukee a respectable 6.9 fWAR pitching both in the rotation and bullpen across 5 seasons, and is now pitching in the Texas Rangers organization.

2003:

Top draftee: SS Aaron Hill (1st round, 13th overall)
Best pick: RHP Shaun Marcum (3rd round)
Honorable mention: 3B Ryan Roberts (18th round)

Despite taking a shortstop in the first round of 2002, J.P. Ricciardi went that route again in 2003, and this time it actually worked out. Hill was moved to second base due to Russ Adams, and stayed there long after Russ Adams had left the organization. He entered 2011 with a career 13.5 fWAR over 6 years, but after producing negative value for Toronto this year, he was traded to Arizona. While Hill proved to be a strong pick, the best pick of the draft was Shaun Marcum, for two distinct reasons. First, he pitched well, and is now up to 10.0 career fWAR. Second, and perhaps more importantly, he was traded to Milwaukee (yes, those same Brewers!) in the 2010 offseason for Brett Lawrie. Despite having only a month worth of at-bats, Lawrie has nearly matched Marcum's production this year (2.0 to 2.6 fWAR). Ryan Roberts deserves mention, as he has carved out a solid major league career despite being drafted in the 18th round. He is having a career year with Arizona this year as they head to the post season, producing a 3.8 fWAR.

2004:

Top draftee: LHP David Purcey (1st round, 16th overall)
Best pick: 1B Adam Lind (3rd round)
Honorable mention: RHP Casey Janssen (4th round), RHP Jesse Litsch (24th round)

2004 should be considered a successful draft, as it produced four players who have spent extensive amounts of time in the major leagues. Purcey struggled in the minors as a starter and was eventually converted to a relief pitcher. He had a decent 2010 season (4.35 xFIP), but completely fell apart in 2011 and has been designated for assignment twice already this season. Lind, Janssen, and Litsch have producted similar value in Toronto (4.5, 4.0, and 3.7 fWAR respectively), but have achieved it in very different ways. Lind has 4 full seasons of at-bats, but his 3.7 fWAR 2009 season carried a majority of his career production to date. Janssen produced 1.2 fWAR in his single season of starting, and a respectable 2.8 fWAR in his 4 season of relief combined. Like Lind, Litsch produced a majority of his career value in one season (2008: 2.6 fWAR), though that can be atleast partially attributed to injuries over recent seasons.

2005:

Top draftee: LHP Ricky Romero (1st round, 6th overall)
Best pick: LHP Ricky Romero (1st round)

The 2005 draft was perhaps the most impressive of the 21st century. Of the 30 players taken in the first round, 8 have gone on to become All Stars (including Ricky Romero in 2011). Beyond those 8, the first round also produced 5 other above average major leaguers in Alex Gordon, Mike Pelfrey, Cameron Maybin, Matt Garza, and Colby Rasmus. The Romero pick was poorly received by the baseball world and Toronto alike, and looked particularly awful following the 2007 season in which Troy Tulowitzki (drafted 7th overall) burst onto the scene as a superstar. Over the last few seasons, however, Romero has established himself as Toronto's #1 starter, so this draft must be considered a success.

2006:

Top draftee: RF Travis Snider (1st round, 14th overall)
Best pick: RF Travis Snider (1st round)

Five years later, only two players from the 2006 draft have reached the majors -- Travis Snider and Brian Jeroloman. While his future potential has become cloudy due to consistent struggles over the past two season, Snider is without question the best player to come from this draft. Snider was J.P. Ricciardi's first highschool player taken in the first round, which was a nice change of pace from his conservative low-risk approach in earlier seasons. Whether or not that risk will pay off may still not be known for another two years.

2007:

Top draftee: SS Kevin Ahrens (1st round, 16th overall)
Best pick: LHP Brett Cecil (Supplementary 1st round), C J.P. Arencibia (1st round, 21st overall)
Honorable mention: LHP Marc Rzepczynski (5th round)

The 2007 draft was easily the best of J.P. Ricciardi's reign despite the fact 3 of the 5 first round picks have struggled in minor leagues. The best pick of this draft is a tie between Brett Cecil and J.P. Arencibia. Cecil has been a consistent starter in the major leagues over the past 2 years (4.15 xFIP, 4.48 xFIP), while Arencibia has performed well as a rookie catcher in 2011 (1.3 fWAR). Marc Rzepczynski deserves mention, as even though he had an up and down career over 3 years with Toronto, he was a key part of the trade with St. Louis that brought Colby Rasmus to Toronto.

I would break down the 8 drafts examined as follows:

Good drafts: 2003, 2004, 2007
Mediocre drafts: 2000, 2005, 2006
Poor drafts: 2001, 2002

For a draft to be considered successful, it is expected that is produces more than one player who produced signficant value at the major league level. 2003, 2004, and 2007 all had atleast two players reach the major leagues and have a quantifiable impact. I consider 2000, 2005, and 2006 to be mediocre drafts because they each produced only one major leaguer, though McGowan and Romero are special players. The 2006 draft is on the fence between mediocre and poor, as Snider is the only player it produced and he has yet to flourish in the major leagues. The 2001 and 2002 drafts were failures, though the players acquired through trade for the draftees should not go unnoticed.

When looking over this information, it is very understanable why Toronto was rated as having one of the worst minor league systems over much of the decade. With J.P. Ricciardi gone and Alex Anthopolous now running the show, it will be interesting to compare how the two contrasting draft styles stack up down the road. Anthopolous has received rave early reviews of his first two drafts as a general manager (2010 and 2011), but it won't be until 2015 when those draftees have seen substantial major league time that we will be able to comprehend how much of a success they were or weren't.