Top 15 Prospect Review: Hitters

#1: 3B Brett Lawrie

(MLB) 125 AB, .312/.386/.656 (1.042 OPS), 8 2B, 4 3B, 9 HR, 23 RBI, 6 SB, 13/25 BB/K
(AAA) 292 AB, .353/.415/.661 (1.076 OPS), 24 2B, 6 3B, 18 HR, 61 RBI, 13 SB, 26/53 BB/K

2011 Breakdown: After being acquired from the Brewers in the offseason, high expectations were placed upon Brett Lawrie. Lawrie was a true top-prospect, and as a Canadian, Blue Jays fans had hopes he could become the next Canadian superstar, like Morneau and Votto before him. Lawrie met those lofty expectations and then some, and likely would have won the AL Rookie of the Year if not for a broken hand in June that caused him to miss nearly two months. Lawrie has already moved up from 8th to 5th (on occasion) in the batting order, which suggests John Farrell will remove the kid gloves in 2012 and let the world see what Brett can do.

2012 Prospect status: N/A (graduated from prospect status)

#3: C J.P. Arencibia

(MLB) 398 AB, .219/.278/.447 (.725 OPS), 17 2B, 4 3B, 22 HR, 72 RBI, 1 SB, 31/124 BB/K

2011 Breakdown: Arencibia was called up in late 2010, but Cito Gaston's insistence on playing free agent-to-be John Buck dramatically cut down Arencibia's playing time, which left him as a huge question mark entering 2011. Arencibia started off hot, but has struggled throughout the rest of the year. His 7.1 walk percentage is a pleasant surprise, and ranks 4th among current Blue Jays regulars. Arencibia's biggest problem has been strikeouts, and while they may always been an issue with his uppercut swing, reducing his strikeout rate from its current 28.5% to around 20% would make a huge improvement in his overall batting numbers.

2012 Prospect status: N/A (graduated from prospect status)

#4: CF Anthony Gose

(AA) 509 AB, .253/.349/.415 (.763 OPS), 20 2B, 7 3B, 16 HR, 59 RBI, 70 SB, 62/154 BB/K

2011 Breakdown: Gose spent the entire 2011 season as the starting centerfielder for the prospect-rich New Hampshire Fishers Cats ball club. While strikeouts were still an issue, his 10.6% walk rate and 70/85 (82.4%) stolen base numbers give hope that he could hit near the top of a major league lineup at some point in the future. The batting numbers remained near his career averages -- subpar, but he did see an unexpected spike in his power numbers, more than doubling his previous career high in home runs. Some have attributed this to a short right field porch in his home stadium, however he hit 7 of his 16 home runs on the road. Additionally, many reports of his home park home runs have described them as bombs.

2012 Prospect status: Rising

#6: C Travis d'Arnaud

(AA) 424 AB, .311/.371/.542 (.914 OPS), 33 2B, 1 3B, 21 HR, 78 RBI, 4 SB, 33/100 BB/K

2011 Breakdown: When considering position, d'Arnaud had perhaps the best overall season by any Toronto hitting prospect in 2011. d'Arnaud had always been known as a player with all the tools to be a great catcher, but the numbers had never lived up to the hype. That all came to an end in 2011. d'Arnaud stayed healthy for nearly the entire season, and put together a batting line deserving of the Eastern League MVP award. d'Arnaud has shot up prospects list during the year, and is now arguably the top catching prospect in all of baseball (most experts are split on d'Arnaud and Devin Mesoraco of the Reds). With the graduation of Toronto's top three prospects, d'Arnaud has a legitimate chance to bear the title of Toronto's number one minor leaguer.

2012 Prospect status: Rising

#8: C Carlos Perez

(A) 383 AB, .256/.320/.355 (.675 OPS), 17 2B, 6 3B, 3 HR, 41 RBI, 6 SB, 37/74 BB/K

2011 Breakdown: Carlos Perez was a huge disappointment in 2011. He had shown all of the tools you could want from a catcher in his first three professional seasons, but that did not remain true this year. With a young player like Perez, the biggest hope is that he can translate those tools from short-season ball to full-year ball. The reason for Perez' drop-off in production is impossible to know without being around the team all year, but one can only hope it's fatigue related, not ability related. 2012 will be a huge test for Perez to re-establish himself, but at this point some of his prospect shine has worn off.

2012 Prospect status: Diminishing

#11: CF Jake Marisnick

(A) 462 AB, .320/.392/.496 (.888 OPS), 27 2B, 6 3B, 14 HR, 77 RBI, 37 SB, 43/91 BB/K

2011 Breakdown: Much like d'Arnaud, Marisnick took the huge step of translating tools into legitimate production. Marisnick has always been known as an athlete and a guy "who looks good in a uniform", but he became a baseball player in 2011. Recently named one of Kevin Goldstein's 10 most interesting prospect stories of the year, he mentions how Marisnick is one of the few players you can call a true 5-tool talent without looking like an idiot. In addition to posting an awesome batting line, Marisnick racked up the cumulative stats all year, totalling 47 extra base hits and 37 stolen bases. Perhaps the most impressive aspect of Marisnick's season was his ability to avoid slumps. In his worst month of the year, May, he still managed a respectable .713 OPS. He had an .800+ OPS in the other four full months.

2012 Prospect status: Rising

#12: SS Adeiny Hechavarria

(AAA) 108 AB, .389/.431/.537 (.968 OPS), 6 2B, 2 3B, 2 HR, 11 RBI, 1 SB, 8/21 BB/K
(AA) 464 AB, .235/.275/.347 (.622 OPS), 22 2B, 6 3B, 6 HR, 46 RBI, 19 SB, 25/78 BB/K

2011 Breakdown: A lot was expected from Hechavarria, and for the most part he failed to deliver. After hitting .273/.305/.360 in New Hampshire in 2010 after a midseason callup, it was hoped Hech could match or even exceed those numbers in his second go around with the Fisher Cats. The opposite happened. Hechavarria's batting line plummeted to .235/.275/.347 in 2011. Despite this, he was promoted to Las Vegas late in the year to work with hitting coach Chad Mottola. He did have a strong month with the 51's, but it's exactly that, a month. If Hechavarria wants to re-establish his prospect status, he'll need to show something with the bat in 2012, and string together those strong months into something tangible.

2012 Prospect status: Diminishing

#13: LF Eric Thames

(MLB) 304 AB, .263/.311/.457 (.768 OPS), 21 2B, 4 3B, 10 HR, 32 RBI, 2 SB, 18/73 BB/K
(AAA) 210 AB, .352/.423/.610 (1.033 OPS), 25 2B, 4 2B, 7 HR, 45 RBI, 5 SB, 23/41 BB/K

2011 Breakdown: Like Lawrie, Thames split the year between Las Vegas and Toronto. However, unlike Brett Lawrie, Thames has struggled at times to make the adjustment to the more talented pitching. Despite never posting a walk rate below 8.9% in his minor league career, Thames is walking in only 5.5% of his plate appearances while striking out in 22.2% of his appearances -- not a great combination. While the power Thames has displayed has been impressive (his ISO of .194 is currently 4th among the Blue Jays starters), and his 22.7% line drive rate equally so, it's hard to project Thames as anything more than a .260-.270 hitter in the major leagues. Thames stole Travis Snider's left field job in the summer, and it's likely only one of the two will make the squad out of Spring Training. It should be an interesting battle to watch.

2012 Prospect status: N/A (graduated from prospect status)

The Prodigal Son returns

On July 8th, 2008, Dustin McGowan left his start against the Orioles with soreness in his shoulder. Little did Blue Jays fans know at the time, but that would be the last time we would see Dustin on the Rogers Centre turf for more than three years.

At the time, McGowan was finally establishing himself as a pitcher. After struggling with relief roles and bouncing to and from the minor league in 2005 and 2006, McGowan was handed the reins of a rotation spot in May 2007. He started with a trio of ugly starts, but McGowan began put it together. His 5.90 April ERA and 4.54 June ERA were countered by strong second half. In 15 starts after the All Star break, McGowan threw 98 innings and accumulated 87 strikeouts, while pitching to a 3.67 ERA and 1.14 WHIP.

The 2008 season appeared to have a lot of promise. The staff ace, Roy Halladay, was poised for another run at a Cy Young. Mercenary for hire, AJ Burnett, was in the opt-out year of his contract, so big things were expected. Behind those two, the Blue Jays had two young pitchers in Dustin McGowan and Shaun Marcum ready to establish their legitimacy. The season went off-course with the McGowan injury, and was completely derailed a month later when Marcum also went down with an elbow injury. While Marcum did miss the entire 2009 season, his injury, surgery, and rehab was relatively straight forward, as Tommy John surgery has become so common the recovery rate is near 100%. McGowan, on the other hand...

July 2008 -- Season-ending surgery to repair fraying in right shoulder labrum
July 2009 -- Season-ending surgery to repair articular cartilage damage in knee
June 2010 -- Season-ending surgery to repair torn rotator cuff in right shoulder

While the July 2009 knee surgery only required 6 weeks for recovery, it happened so late in the season that McGowan rehabilitation program had to be shut down. Unlike Tommy John, a surgery in which a ligament is taken from the leg and grafted into the elbow to replace the torn UCL, shoulder surgeries are a lot more complex and the history of successful recoveries is a much shorter list. A lot of this has to due with elbows being a simple hinge joint (like a knee), while shoulders are a socket joint (like a hip).

Leading up to his return on September 6th, McGowan had a long and intense minor league rehab assignment. While he did not pitch many innings, the Blue Jays had him working on regular starter rest, pitching every 5th day with a minor league starter piggy-backing the rest of his games. He made 7 starts with Dunedin and 5 starts with New Hampshire, totalling 35.1 innings. McGowan pitched well, posting a 35/14 K/BB ratio as well as a 2.80 ERA and 1.27 WHIP. The results, along with his health, lead to a September callup that Dustin had probably been dreaming about every night for the past three years.

While the sample size is extremely small (merely 74 pitches), McGowan appears to have maintained the quality of stuff than had people declaring him as a future top of the rotation starter back in 07/08. His fastball displayed similar velocity and movement (93.9 mph in 2011, 94.3 mph in 2008). His power slider is actually coming in harder (88.2 mph in 2011, 87.6 mph in 2008), but is slightly flatter. His curveball much the same, though both instances could be the result of nerves causing him to overthrow. The biggest change in his arsenal is his changeup. McGowan is throwing it nearly twice as often (13.5% in 2011, 7.6% in 2008), mostly at the expense of his fastball, and it is breaking more than it ever has. The issue of small sample size cannot be emphasized enough, but McGowan PitchFx data will definitely be something to monitor as he works every 5th day for the remainder of the season.


The question is, what can we expect from McGowan now and in the future? Both he and the front office have stated they believe it would be easier to maintain his health if he has the steady routine of a starter, but have both also left the door open for an audition as the closer. I was on the closer bandwagon, as outlined in this post, but after watching McGowan pitch to the Red Sox, I am certainly intrigued with the possibility of him returning to the rotation. If the Blue Jays do allow him to the start in 2012, I expect him to have extremely strict pitch and inning limits throughout the season, as he has barely thrown over the past three years. I do expect that if McGowan starts the year in the rotation, he will eventually be moved to the bullpen somewhere around the All Star break in an effort to protect his arm for the future.

Regardless of the outcome, McGowan's story is a great one and I wish it received more publicity in the United States than it has. In my 15 years or so of being a sports fan, I can't think of an athlete who has gone over three years without playing a game due to a series of serious injures, but has fought through them in pursuit of the game he loves. In a perfect world, McGowan would put stay healthy and put together a strong season, helping to lead the 2012 Toronto Blue Jays to the playoffs for the first time in 19 years. Whether or not that comes true is impossible to know, but a guy can dream, can't he?

A look back at past drafts

It is a widely accepted theory that in order to accurately analyze a baseball draft, four or five years need to pass. This is because, unlike the other three major sports (NFL, NHL, NBA), baseball draftees do not immediately step into the major leagues. College draftees usually spend between one and three years in the minor leagues before seeing the majors, while highschool draftees can take upwards of five or six years to make their debut.

The first half of the decade saw a regime change, as long time General Manager Gord Ash (who was known for his strong drafts) was replaced after the 2001 season in favor of one of Billy Beane's understudies, J.P. Ricciardi. Ricciardi was known for his eye for talent, and declared that acquiring amateur talent through the draft would be his method of overthrowing the AL East powers and finally bringing Toronto back to the playoffs.

While the story of J.P. Ricciardi's egotisical dictatorship in Toronto is an interesting one, we shall instead look at how he, and his predecessor Gord Ash, did in acquiring talent through the draft from the turn of the millenium through 2007.

2000:

Top draftee: CF Miguel Negron (1st round, 18th overall)
Best pick: RHP Dustin McGowan (Supplemental 1st round)

Miguel Negron was easily the worst 1st round pick on this list, but given how poor the 2000 draft ended up being, it's hard to fault the front office. Of the 40 first round and supplemental first round picks, only three went on to become All Stars (Adrian Gonzalez, Chase Utley, Adam Wainwright), and only Wainwright was drafted after Negron. McGowan was the prize for Toronto in this draft. After struggling to reach the majors, McGowan put it all together in 2007, pitching to a 3.79 xFIP and 3.9 fWAR. McGowan was on his way to another 3+ fWAR season in 2008 until he went down with a series of serious arm issues, and hasn't seen the majors since.

2001:

Top draftee: LF Gabe Gross (1st round, 15th overall)
Best pick: RHP Brandon League (2nd round)

When the highlight of your draft is a relief pitcher who has totalled a 3.58 xFIP and 2.9 fWAR over parts of 8 major league seasons, you know the draft went poorly. Neither Gross or League ever amounted to much in Toronto, and their biggest impact may be who they brought back in trades. Gross was traded along with two pitchers to Milwaukee for Lyle Overbay, who had a strong 2006 season (.880 OPS) and helped Toronto take 2nd place in the AL East for the first time this decade. Brandon League was traded to Seattle in a three player deal that brought Brandon Morrow (6.7 fWAR in ~300 IP) to Toronto.

2002:

Top draftee: SS Russ Adams (1st round, 14th overall)
Best pick: RHP Dave Bush (2nd round)

The 2002 draft was yet another that did not yield much in terms of talent for Toronto, though the rest of baseball made out alright. The three picks immediately after Russ Adams (15th, 16th, and 17th overall) all produced future All Stars in Scott Kazmir, Nick Swisher, and Cole Hamels. For comparison, Russ Adams produced a career -0.9 fWAR. The other three players produced 16.8, 23.0, and 23.4 fWAR respectively. Dave Bush, a 2nd rounder, was Toronto's best pick of the draft. Bush produced 3.5 fWAR in parts of 2 seasons for the Blue Jays before being shipped to Milwaukee in the Lyle Overbay trade. He gave Milwaukee a respectable 6.9 fWAR pitching both in the rotation and bullpen across 5 seasons, and is now pitching in the Texas Rangers organization.

2003:

Top draftee: SS Aaron Hill (1st round, 13th overall)
Best pick: RHP Shaun Marcum (3rd round)
Honorable mention: 3B Ryan Roberts (18th round)

Despite taking a shortstop in the first round of 2002, J.P. Ricciardi went that route again in 2003, and this time it actually worked out. Hill was moved to second base due to Russ Adams, and stayed there long after Russ Adams had left the organization. He entered 2011 with a career 13.5 fWAR over 6 years, but after producing negative value for Toronto this year, he was traded to Arizona. While Hill proved to be a strong pick, the best pick of the draft was Shaun Marcum, for two distinct reasons. First, he pitched well, and is now up to 10.0 career fWAR. Second, and perhaps more importantly, he was traded to Milwaukee (yes, those same Brewers!) in the 2010 offseason for Brett Lawrie. Despite having only a month worth of at-bats, Lawrie has nearly matched Marcum's production this year (2.0 to 2.6 fWAR). Ryan Roberts deserves mention, as he has carved out a solid major league career despite being drafted in the 18th round. He is having a career year with Arizona this year as they head to the post season, producing a 3.8 fWAR.

2004:

Top draftee: LHP David Purcey (1st round, 16th overall)
Best pick: 1B Adam Lind (3rd round)
Honorable mention: RHP Casey Janssen (4th round), RHP Jesse Litsch (24th round)

2004 should be considered a successful draft, as it produced four players who have spent extensive amounts of time in the major leagues. Purcey struggled in the minors as a starter and was eventually converted to a relief pitcher. He had a decent 2010 season (4.35 xFIP), but completely fell apart in 2011 and has been designated for assignment twice already this season. Lind, Janssen, and Litsch have producted similar value in Toronto (4.5, 4.0, and 3.7 fWAR respectively), but have achieved it in very different ways. Lind has 4 full seasons of at-bats, but his 3.7 fWAR 2009 season carried a majority of his career production to date. Janssen produced 1.2 fWAR in his single season of starting, and a respectable 2.8 fWAR in his 4 season of relief combined. Like Lind, Litsch produced a majority of his career value in one season (2008: 2.6 fWAR), though that can be atleast partially attributed to injuries over recent seasons.

2005:

Top draftee: LHP Ricky Romero (1st round, 6th overall)
Best pick: LHP Ricky Romero (1st round)

The 2005 draft was perhaps the most impressive of the 21st century. Of the 30 players taken in the first round, 8 have gone on to become All Stars (including Ricky Romero in 2011). Beyond those 8, the first round also produced 5 other above average major leaguers in Alex Gordon, Mike Pelfrey, Cameron Maybin, Matt Garza, and Colby Rasmus. The Romero pick was poorly received by the baseball world and Toronto alike, and looked particularly awful following the 2007 season in which Troy Tulowitzki (drafted 7th overall) burst onto the scene as a superstar. Over the last few seasons, however, Romero has established himself as Toronto's #1 starter, so this draft must be considered a success.

2006:

Top draftee: RF Travis Snider (1st round, 14th overall)
Best pick: RF Travis Snider (1st round)

Five years later, only two players from the 2006 draft have reached the majors -- Travis Snider and Brian Jeroloman. While his future potential has become cloudy due to consistent struggles over the past two season, Snider is without question the best player to come from this draft. Snider was J.P. Ricciardi's first highschool player taken in the first round, which was a nice change of pace from his conservative low-risk approach in earlier seasons. Whether or not that risk will pay off may still not be known for another two years.

2007:

Top draftee: SS Kevin Ahrens (1st round, 16th overall)
Best pick: LHP Brett Cecil (Supplementary 1st round), C J.P. Arencibia (1st round, 21st overall)
Honorable mention: LHP Marc Rzepczynski (5th round)

The 2007 draft was easily the best of J.P. Ricciardi's reign despite the fact 3 of the 5 first round picks have struggled in minor leagues. The best pick of this draft is a tie between Brett Cecil and J.P. Arencibia. Cecil has been a consistent starter in the major leagues over the past 2 years (4.15 xFIP, 4.48 xFIP), while Arencibia has performed well as a rookie catcher in 2011 (1.3 fWAR). Marc Rzepczynski deserves mention, as even though he had an up and down career over 3 years with Toronto, he was a key part of the trade with St. Louis that brought Colby Rasmus to Toronto.

I would break down the 8 drafts examined as follows:

Good drafts: 2003, 2004, 2007
Mediocre drafts: 2000, 2005, 2006
Poor drafts: 2001, 2002

For a draft to be considered successful, it is expected that is produces more than one player who produced signficant value at the major league level. 2003, 2004, and 2007 all had atleast two players reach the major leagues and have a quantifiable impact. I consider 2000, 2005, and 2006 to be mediocre drafts because they each produced only one major leaguer, though McGowan and Romero are special players. The 2006 draft is on the fence between mediocre and poor, as Snider is the only player it produced and he has yet to flourish in the major leagues. The 2001 and 2002 drafts were failures, though the players acquired through trade for the draftees should not go unnoticed.

When looking over this information, it is very understanable why Toronto was rated as having one of the worst minor league systems over much of the decade. With J.P. Ricciardi gone and Alex Anthopolous now running the show, it will be interesting to compare how the two contrasting draft styles stack up down the road. Anthopolous has received rave early reviews of his first two drafts as a general manager (2010 and 2011), but it won't be until 2015 when those draftees have seen substantial major league time that we will be able to comprehend how much of a success they were or weren't.