2012 Top Prospects #20: Kevin Comer

Name: Kevin Comer
Position: Right-handed Pitcher
Acquired: 1st round (2011)
Opening Day age: 19
Height/weight: 6’3”/205 lbs
Best/worst tool: Fastball/changeup
Risk factor: High
ETA: 2016

Scouting Report

Kevin Comer is raw. Very raw. As a New Jersey high school pitcher, his competition level was well below that of California, Florida, Texas, and the other southern states that produce baseball players. As such, his arsenal is very projectible, but lacks refinement. Comer’s go-to pitch is a four seam fastball. The pitch regularly clocks in the low 90’s, and touches 94-95 mph. He has good fastball command, giving the pitch plus potential. Comer also throws a two-seamer, which is a few miles per hour slower, but has good movement in on right handed batters. His primary breaking pitch is a power curveball, also with plus potential. The curve has tight rotation, increasing its velocity and giving it more bite than loop. His third pitch is a changeup, but as a high school pitcher he rarely had a need to throw it. Its potential is debatable, but it’s presently a below average pitch. Projectibility is a big plus with Comer, as despite already having a strong frame (6’3”, 205 lbs), it’s possible he could add velocity by building arm strength through repetitions. Comer is very athletic, as in addition to baseball he played basketball for his high school. That athleticism is visible on the mound, as he has a smooth and repeatable delivery. Comer lost some fastball velocity late in his high school career, which is something that should be monitored once he gets underway in 2012.

2011 Statistics and Analysis

N/A

Comer didn’t agreed to terms with Toronto until signing deadline day, and was therefore unable to get into any games with Blue Jays affiliates. For Seneca High School in New Jersey, Comer dominated his competition over the past two seasons. While maintaining a low walk rate, he blew hitters away with his fastball and racked up some absurd strikeout totals thanks to an outstanding curveball. Obviously the talent he faces in the minor leagues will be much better than what he faced in high school, but expect the strikeout trend to continue.

Expected 2012 Assignment: Gulf Coast League

Future Outlook

Out of Toronto’s entire top 30 prospects, Comer is probably the furthest away from the major leagues. Not only was he a high school draftee, but he was drafted out of the North East. Due to weather limitations, Northeastern pitchers usually only manage 40-50 innings per season. In 2012, Comer will be targeting a similar inning total, which will be a sufficient increase in workload when considering extended spring training. With increases of roughly 30-40 innings per season, Comer should be ready to throw 180 innings in 2016, barring injuries or a stall in development. Obviously, a lot can happen in five years, which is why the risk with Comer is so high.

Perfect World Projection: Front of the rotation starter

2012 Top Prospects #21: Chad Jenkins

Name: Chad Jenkins
Position: Right-handed Pitcher
Acquired: 1st round (2009)
Opening Day age: 24
Height/weight: 6’4”/235 lbs
Best/worst tool: Fastball/changeup
Risk factor: Low
ETA: 2012

Scouting Report

Chad Jenkins is a workhorse on the mound, and very much looks the part. At the time of his draft, he weighed 225 lbs, but has grown into the 235-240 lbs range over the last couple of years. Something changed over the offseason, however, as in this picture taken in January by John Lott, Jenkins appears to have lost a ton of weight. On the mound, Jenkins features a power arsenal. He works primarily off his sinker, a plus pitch that sits in the low 90’s. The sinker has boring action against right handed batters, and has been clocked as high as 96 mph. When he reaches back for that velocity, however, the pitch shows more typical four seam action as it flattens out a bit. His second pitch is an above average slider that has flashed plus potential, sitting in the low to mid 80’s. Those two pitches make him a groundball machine, as it’s difficult to get any kind of loft on pitches that heavy. His third pitch is a changeup with some potential, but like many young pitchers, he abandons it far too easily. Jenkins will need to learn to trust the changeup if he wants to remain a starting pitcher, as left handed batters will annihilate him otherwise. His command of all three pitches is solid.

2011 Statistics and Analysis

(A+) 11 games (11 starts), 67.1 IP, 71 H, 23 ER, 3 HR, 14 BB, 44 K
4-5, 3.07 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 5.88 K/9, 3.14 K/BB, 2.04 GO/AO

(AA) 16 games (16 starts), 100.1 IP, 93 H, 46 ER, 8 HR, 27 BB, 74 K
5-7, 4.13 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 6.64 K/9, 2.74 K/BB, 1.23 GO/AO

Jenkins began 2011 where he finished 2010, with High-A Dunedin. He spent the first two months of the season there, putting together mixed results. Much like 2010, he wasn’t striking out very many batters, and was giving up a ton of base hits. Regardless, as a 23 year old, the front office obviously felt it was time to move him along to Double-A. Despite the ERA jump of more than a full run, Jenkins was a much better pitcher with the Fisher Cats. His walk rate rose, but his strikeout rate increased to a much more respectable level, likely contributing to the drop in his number of hits allowed. The groundball rate dropped, but at 1.23 it was still well above average. As a guy who focuses primarily on putting the ball in play and relying on his defense, there will always be some volatility to his ERA and WHIP statistics.

Expected 2012 Assignment: Double-A New Hampshire

Future Outlook

In January, Jenkins was one of seven prospects invited to Toronto as part of a rookie development camp, an event founded on the idea of getting potential callups a taste of big league life before they’re thrown into the fire mid-season. Obviously, Toronto thinks Jenkins is almost ready to make the leap. He should begin the year in Double-A, and could be one of the first arms called upon should an injury occur in the rotation. Due to his groundball tendencies, Jenkins might be one of the few pitching prospects who could handle Triple-A without embarrassing himself. With that being said, Toronto is probably hoping to completely avoid such assignments for any pitchers with legitimate potential.

Perfect World Projection: Inning-eating back of the rotation starter.

2012 Top Prospects #22: David Cooper

Name: David Cooper
Position: First Base
Acquired: 1st round (2008)
Opening Day age: 25
Height/weight: 6’0”/200 lbs
Best/worst tool: Bat/fielding
Risk factor: Low
ETA: 2012

Scouting Report

As a first base prospect, expectations are high and rightfully so. This is especially the case with Cooper, as there is a less than zero percent chance he will ever be able to play another defensive position. At first base, his fielding is already below average, and he does not have the arm to even consider left field. Athleticism is another issue with Cooper. It is often joked that baseball players aren’t real athletes, and that is the case with Cooper. He looks like a baseball player, not an athlete. His speed is below average, and has “future base clogger” written all over him. Regardless, first base prospects aren’t judged on their speed and defense, they’re judged on their offensive capabilities. Coop’s best tool is his bat, which is above average and occasionally shows fringe-plus potential. His bat skills are driven more by an advanced approach and an ability to read pitches quickly rather than pure bat speed, which could hurt him in the majors when facing good fastballs. His power is average, and as a non-athletic, 25 year old former college player, it has likely already reached its ceiling. Give his bat/power combination to an average defensive third baseman and you have a top prospect, but as a poor defensive first baseman, the future isn’t as bright.

2011 Statistics and Analysis

(AAA) 467 AB, .364/.439/.535 (.974 OPS), 51 2B, 1 3B, 9 HR, 96 RBI, 1 SB, 67/43 BB/K

(MLB) 71 AB, .211/.284/.394 (.678 OPS), 7 2B, 0 3B, 2 HR, 12 RBI, 0 SB, 7/14 BB/K

Cooper made his major league debut in early 2011, but it wasn’t until his later September callup that he actually played like the former 1st round pick that he is. Despite getting only 38 at-bats, Coop’s September line of .289/325/.526 (.851) was impressive, and he looked like a different player than the one who struggled dramatically in April and May. In the minors, he was one of the leaders in batting average, but his season was once again a tale of two halves. The hitting ability was there all year (his lowest batting average in any month was .336), but the power completely disappeared late in the season. In the first half (68 games), Cooper pounded 35 doubles and 8 home runs for a 217 ISO. In the second half (52 games), Coop managed only 16 doubles and 1 home run for a 107 ISO. He never spent any time on the disabled list, but it’s possible he was hiding an injury.

Expected 2012 Assignment: Triple-A Las Vegas

Future Outlook

Given that Cooper was one of the first callups early in the season, Toronto obviously feels Cooper has little else to prove in the minor leagues. The problem for Coop is positional availability, as Adam Lind and Edwin Encarnacion will be filling the first base and designated hitter roles for the big league club next season. With absolutely no defensive flexibility, a bench role is not in the cards for Cooper. Regardless of how well he does or does not perform in the spring, Cooper is likely ticketed for Triple-A to once again await an injury.

Perfect World Projection: 2nd division starter at 1B

2012 Top Prospects #23: Joel Carreno

Name: Joel Carreno
Position: Right-handed Pitcher
Acquired: Signed as undrafted free agent (2004)
Opening Day age: 25
Height/weight: 6’0”/190 lbs
Best/worst tool: Slider/command
Risk factor: Low
ETA: 2012

Scouting Report

Since debuting with the DSL Blue Jays in 2006, Carreno has made 104 starts and 5 relief appearances in the minor leagues. Despite this, his future likely lies in the bullpen. A three pitch pitcher, Carreno often falls in love with his best two pitches -- his slider and fastball -- and ignores the third. The slider is his finest offering –- flashing plus -– and clocking around 80 mph. It has very hard late bite, and can be used effectively as both a chase pitch and a backdoor breaking ball. The fastball is an average pitch velocity wise, sitting 89-91 mph, but it does have some cut and run that makes it difficult to square up. The changeup is a low 80’s offering with only an average future, but he did record his first career strikeout with it. He throws it down and away to lefties, but almost completely abandons it against right handed hitters. His command -– particularly his fastball command –- is his greatest flaw. While it doesn’t always manifest itself in walks, he frequently misses his spots, leading to some hard hit balls. At 6’0”/190 lbs, his build screams reliever in the long run.

2011 Statistics and Analysis

(AA) 24 games (23 starts), 134.2 IP, 100 H, 51 ER, 12 HR, 68 BB, 152 K
7-9, 3.41 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 10.16 K/9, 2.24 K/BB, 0.75 GO/AO

(MLB) 11 games (0 starts), 15.2 IP, 11 H, 2 ER, 1 HR, 4 BB, 14 K
1-0, 1.15 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, 8.04 K/9, 3.50 K/BB, 1.50 GO/AO

Through the entire month of May, Carreno put together a string of some of the most bizarre pitching lines I’ve ever seen. In his five starts, he went 31.2 innings, giving up only 8 hits and 4 runs. He walked 21, and struck out 41. While rare and likely to never be repeated, the line is a great indicator of how difficult his pitches can be to square up, but also how inconsistent –- bordering on poor –- his command can be at times. The 4.54 BB/9 in Double-A is indicative of that, and is a big reason why he shouldn’t be used as a starter in the major leagues. With patient lineups like Boston and New York, that BB/9 will quickly rise above 5 and Carreno will find himself out of games in the 5th.

Expected 2012 Assignment: Triple-A Las Vegas

Future Outlook

Carreno is likely the most MLB ready prospect in the top 30, highlighted by his dominant 15+ inning debut late in the season. The problem for Carreno at this point is bullpen depth. In November, he was almost a lock for one of the final 3 spots in the bullpen. Since then, however, the Blue Jays have acquired Sergio Santos, Darren Oliver, Jason Frasor, and most recently Francisco Cordero, pushing Carreno out of the top 8. He, and his left handed counterpart Luis Perez, are both likely ticketed for Triple-A Las Vegas awaiting injuries on the big league squad, regardless of how well they perform in the spring. It’s a shame, as Carreno is more than ready to be used in the 7th or 8th inning of games.

Perfect World Projection: Setup man

2012 Top Prospects #24: Marcus Knecht

Name: Marcus Knecht
Position: Left Field
Acquired: 3rd round (2010)
Opening Day age: 21
Height/weight: 6’1”/200 lbs
Best/worst tool: Bat/fielding
Risk factor: Medium
ETA: 2014

Scouting Report

To say Knecht is anything beyond an offensive prospect at this point would be a lie, as his defensive skills aren’t particularly impressive. Both his fielding and arm strength are fringe-average, making left field his best-case defensive position, and first base or designated hitter his worst-case. Despite the defensive deficiencies, Knecht is a solid athlete. He has exceptional straight line speed but has yet to turn that into measureable statistics like triples and stolen bases. With some extra work on his baserunning, his speed tool could be better utilized. Knecht’s best tool is his fringe-plus bat. His swing is smooth and easy, and his plate discipline shows maturity beyond his years. This approach allows him to generate solid power without having a ton of loft on his swing. The power tool is presently average, but with his bat skills and muscular build (6’1”, 200 lbs) it has above average potential.

2011 Statistics and Analysis

439 AB, .273/.377/.474 (.851 OPS), 34 2B, 3 3B, 16 HR, 86 RBI, 4 SB, 67/124 BB/K

Prior to wearing down in the second half of the season, Knecht was playing like one of the best offensive prospects in Toronto’s system. At the end of July, Knecht was hitting .302/.391/.491 (.882). In August and early September his performance fell of dramatically, likely a fatigue issue. 2011 was Knecht’s first year in full season ball after playing only 61 games in 2010, many of which were at designated hitter. While the overall season line is still very impressive, his line from the first four months is an indication of how good his bat can be. The power is expressing itself mostly in doubles at this time, but as he continues to mature he could become more of a 20-25 home run guy.

Expected 2012 Assignment: High-A Dunedin

Future Outlook

Knecht’s path to affiliated ball was an unusual one that included losing nearly an entire developmental year because his college wouldn’t give him at-bats. He rebuilt his draft stock in 2010 has continued to improve every year since being selected by the Blue Jays. His first year in full season ball had some ups and downs, but he proved more than capable of handling minor league pitching. The next level will be a challenge, as he will be entering the always pitching-rich Florida State League after spending 2011 in a pitching-depleted Midwest League. With such a polished bat it would be shocking to see Knecht struggle too much as he continues to advance. A late season appearance with Double-A New Hampshire is not out of the question. Conservative estimates would have Knecht make his major league debut in mid-2014, but if the defense doesn’t hold him back he could be up earlier.

Perfect World Projection: Everyday LF who hits 2nd or 6th in the lineup.

2012 Top Prospects #25: John Stilson

Name: John Stilson
Position: Right-handed Pitcher
Acquired: 3rd round (2011)
Opening Day age: 21
Height/weight: 6’3”/200 lbs
Best/worst tool: Fastball/curveball
Risk factor: Medium
ETA: 2013

Scouting Report

Stilson was receiving first round grades entering his draft season thanks to the stockpile of weapons hidden in his right arm. His primary offering is a plus four-seam fastball. While it averages 92-95 mph in the rotation, it consistently sits in the high 90’s when Stilson pitches in relief. In terms of offspeed pitches, he throws a mid 80’s changeup and two breaking balls. The changeup –- a circle change -– is a plus pitch that fades down and away from left handed batters. Stilson’s two breaking balls are a slider and a curveball, but both are only average offerings. The slider clocks in the mid to high 80’s and has some good, late bite. Should Stilson make a permanent transition to the bullpen, he could scrap one of the breaking balls and focus on developing the other three pitches. The curveball would be the more likely pitch to go, as his slider complements his circle-changeup very well. Stilson has above average command of his pitch arsenal despite a violet and sometimes inconsistent delivery.

2011 Statistics and Analysis

15 games (13 starts), 91.1 IP, 75 H, 17 ER, 1 HR, 29 BB, 92 K
5-2, 1.68 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 9.07 K/9, 3.17 K/BB

Due to an injury, Stilson did not suit up for any of Toronto’s minor league affiliates in 2011. The above numbers are his Texas A&M statistics from the team’s 2011 season. His shoulder injury occurred in May, limiting his season to 91.1 innings while most college starters will compile 110-120 innings prior to the draft. In 2010, his sophomore year, Stilson served as his team’s closer, posting downright absurd numbers (0.80 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, 114 K in 79 IP). Regardless of the role, Stilson’s power arsenal has and will directly translate into gaudy strikeout totals.

Expected 2012 Assignment: High-A Dunedin

Future Outlook

Because of the shoulder injury, John Stilson’s future is very clouded. Texas A&M constantly abused his arm over the past two years, possibly causing permanent damage. Stilson was pitched on short rest, pitched before and after rain delays, and was consistently used him for 3+ innings as a reliever. Any thoughts of keeping him a starter should be out of the question, as his injury history and violent delivery almost guarantee he’d never make it to 200 innings in a season. If he’s healthy for spring training –- a huge if –- and Toronto uses him in the bullpen, Stilson could start the year in High-A Dunedin and move very quickly. Double-A by midseason wouldn’t be out of the realm of possibility. He could debut in Toronto before the summer of 2013 because, health permitting, his stuff is that good.

Perfect World Projection: All Star caliber closer

2012 Top Prospects #26: Kellen Sweeney

Name: Kellen Sweeney
Position: Third Base
Acquired: 2nd round (2010)
Opening Day age: 20
Height/weight: 6’0”/180 lbs
Best/worst tool: Bat/power
Risk factor: High
ETA: 2015

Scouting Report

Kellen Sweeney is the younger brother of current Red Sox outfielder Ryan Sweeney, and their toolsets have a lot of similarities. Kellen has an excellent approach at the plate, not shying away from deep counts. His advanced approach allows his solid bat to play up to fringe-plus, despite minimal contributions from his power tool, which is below average. He has an athletic build at 6’0” and 180 lbs, but does not have exceptional speed. Sweeney’s average speed is augmented by outstanding baseball instincts, making him an above average runner on the base paths. While that doesn’t directly show up in his statistics, his ability to go first to third and second to home is an asset desired by every team. In the field, those same baseball instincts give him an edge playing at the hot corner, where he's a solid-average defender. Arm strength is a bit of an issue with Sweeney, as he underwent Tommy John surgery in 2009 and the tool is still barely fringe-average. By leaving him at third, Toronto obviously expects him arm strength to return with time, otherwise a move to second base would be logical.

2011 Statistics and Analysis

35 AB, .114/.295/.143 (.438 OPS), 1 2B, 0 3B, 0 HR, 1 RBI, 1 SB, 9/17 BB/K

When playing in short-season ball, injuries can quickly kill a season for a player, which is the situation that happened to Sweeney in 2011. After playing in only 9 games, he fractured the base of his thumb in a rundown on the basepaths in his June 30th game, and would not play again. In the games he did manage to play in, he didn’t really do his tools justice. The .114 batting average is not indicative of his batting ability, nor are the large volume of strikeouts. It’s very difficult to make any sincere analysis when the sample size is just so small; hopefully Sweeney will give us a bit more to work with in 2012.

Expected 2012 Assignment: Rookie-class Bluefield or Low-A Vancouver

Future Outlook

Sweeney is in a similar boat to #27 prospect Griffin Murphy, as he is now two years into his professional career but has only 80 career at-bats to his name. Given that, it might be time to give Sweeney a not-so-gentle push in an effort to get his career back on track. Players with talent will shine through the adversity of what may be perceived as aggressive assignments. I’d love to see Sweeney get sent to Single-A Lansing, as more than anything he needs at-bats under his belt, and he could get close to 500 with the Lugnuts. For players who have been sidetracked like Sweeney, repetitions are more important than results, and there are a lot more repetitions to be had in full season ball. Despite that, I expect Sweeney will spend another year in short season ball, pushing his Major League ETA back to late 2015 or 2016.

Perfect World Projection: In the perfect world, Sweeney would return to shortstop where his tools would make him an exceptional player. At third base, his potential is an average regular who hits 2nd in the lineup.

2012 Top Prospects #27: Griffin Murphy

Name: Griffin Murphy
Position: Left-handed Pitcher
Acquired: 2nd round (2010)
Opening Day age: 21
Height/weight: 6’3”/200 lbs
Best/worst tool: Fastball/command
Risk factor: High
ETA: 2015

Scouting Report

Griffin Murphy features the typical left-handed starter arsenal – a fastball, curveball, and changeup. The fastball is his best pitch, grading out as above average to fringe plus. It sits in the high 80’s and low 90’s, touching 93 mph. In addition to the solid velocity, Murphy has good command of the pitch, something that is difficult to find in young starters. His curveball clocks in the mid 70’s, but its break has drastically improved since being drafted. In high school it often looped, but Murphy has tightened the pitch up to show a much harder bite. His changeup is solid-average with above average potential. Unlike many young pitchers, Murphy isn’t afraid to use the pitch, throwing it aggressively in any and all counts. While he has good fastball command, his control over his offspeed pitches comes and goes with frequency. What holds Murphy back from the high-end pitching prospects in the system is his lack of projectibility. Now 21, Murphy already has a thick frame at 6’3” and 200 lbs so there’s not a ton of room to grow velocity-wise.

2011 Statistics and Analysis

11 games (11 starts), 41.0 IP, 48 H, 20 ER, 6 HR, 16 BB, 39 K
2-2, 4.39 ERA, 1.56 WHIP, 8.56 K/9, 2.44 K/BB, 1.20 GO/AO

More than a year after being drafted by Toronto, Murphy finally put on the uniform and got into some professional games. Given the level (Gulf Coast League) and his age (20), the results were a little bit disappointing. With a good fastball and some feel for a changeup and curve, you would expect for a pitcher like Murphy to destroy the 17-20 year olds who comprise the GCL. While the strikeouts were there, he got hit around (10.54 H/9) and hit around hard (1.32 HR/9). The ERA could have been a lot worse as well, as in his July 16th start he allowed 10 base runners in 3 innings, but 6 of the 8 runs he gave up were unearned. Some positives to take were how he started and ended the year. In his first 2 starts, he went 9 total innings allowing 3 runs and striking out 14, and in his last 2 starts, he went 10 total innings allowing 1 run and striking out 10. It was just the middle 7 starts that gave him fits.

Expected 2012 Assignment: Low-A Vancouver or Single-A Lansing

Future Outlook

One year into his career, Griffin Murphy is already falling behind on his development path. Murphy was old for a high school draftee at 19, and by signing late the age issue quickly compounded itself –- he wouldn’t throw a professional pitch until he was 20. Toronto probably felt they were giving him an easy assignment with the Gulf Coast League, and likely planned on a late season promotion to a higher level. Murphy failed to impress, so the promotion never came. Now 21, Murphy faces an uphill battle likely to be loaded with some aggressive assignments. Lansing would be a huge leap from the GCL, but it would put him back on the correct timeline. Otherwise, Murphy is due for another season in short season ball, which would really, really hurt his prospect stock. The best case scenario would have Murphy in Toronto mid-to-late 2015, but with such a slow start to his career it’s nearly impossible to predict an ETA.

Perfect World Projection: Above average back-end starter

2012 Top Prospects #28: Michael Crouse

Name: Michael Crouse
Position: Right Field
Acquired: 16th round (2008)
Opening Day age: 21
Height/weight: 6’4”/215 lbs
Best/worst tool: Power/bat
Risk factor: High
ETA: 2014

Scouting Report

Crouse is a former high school football player, and he looks a bit like a linebacker in a baseball uniform. Thanks to the rigorous training of football programs his athleticism is off the charts, which directly relates to many baseball tools. Crouse’s power has legitimate plus potential, as his strong arms and solid lower half allow him to generate good bat speed and loft in his swing. Some of that power may never be fully unleashed unless he improves his plate approach, as his fringe-average bat skills inhibit his ability to make clean contact. Like his power, his football background gives him an edge in the speed department, an above average to plus tool for him. In addition to pure speed, Crouse is an excellent base runner, evident by his 78% career success rate for stolen bases. He has the potential to be a very excellent outfielder thanks to his natural athleticism, but he still has some work to do when it comes to reading balls of the bat and taking good routes to the ball. In general, Crouse is toolsy but very, very raw.

2011 Statistics and Analysis

364 AB, .261/.352/.475 (.827 OPS), 26 2B, 5 3B, 14 HR, 55 RBI, 38 SB, 44/113 BB/K

Finally getting out of short season ball and starting the year with Single-A Lansing, Crouse was able to show off the power and speed combination that makes him an intriguing prospect. He’s still very much a free swinger –- evident by 113 strikeouts in 101 games –- which is concerning even when considering the home run spike. If he ever wants to hit for a respectable average, Crouse is going to need to scale back some of the aggressiveness in his swing. Had he not missed almost all of August and September due to injury, Crouse may have approached a 20 HR, 50 SB season.

Expected 2012 Assignment: High-A Dunedin

Future Outlook

With a full season year under his belt, Crouse is getting ready to climb into the middle and upper minors. The first stop should be Dunedin, where he’ll be reunited with Jake Marisnick and Marcus Knecht, the other two outfielders he played with in Lansing throughout the 2011 season. From there, it really depends on the development of his bat. Should it become an average or better tool, he could be in the major leagues at some point in 2014. If not, it’s possible he could be a guy who strikes out 150 times a year in Double-A and never sees Toronto. With the athletic tools Crouse possesses, he can be a valuable asset even as just a .260 hitter. Regardless, he’s very raw, and the number of possible outcomes for his career is countless at this point.

Perfect World Projection: Everyday RF who could hit anywhere from 2nd to 7th depending upon the development of his bat.

2012 Top Prospects #29: Danny Barnes

Name: Danny Barnes
Position: Right-handed Pitcher
Acquired: 35th round (2010)
Opening Day age: 22
Height/weight: 6’1”/195 lbs
Best/worst tool: Fastball/curveball
Risk factor: Low
ETA: 2013

Scouting Report

Danny Barnes does not fit the typical mold of a relief pitcher. Unlike most relievers who feature a fastball/breaking ball combination, Barnes has solid command of a starter-like four pitch repertoire. His primary offering is an above average low 90’s fastball capable of touching 94 mph. The pitch has some life, but it is more typical four-seam action than cut or run. Barnes also features a solid slider that clocks in the low 80’s, a pitch he uses effectively against right-handed batters. Against lefties, Barnes uses a greatly improved changeup that also sits in the low 80’s. The change still requires a lot of work, as his arm speed is still noticably slower than when he throws his fastball. His fourth pitch is a curveball, but it’s below average. With his only future being in the bullpen, Barnes should (and hopefully will) scrap the curveball and focus more on developing his other two offspeed pitches. There are some concerns about his delivery, but his bullpen role should alleviate some of those concerns.

2011 Statistics and Analysis

44 games (2 starts), 66.0 IP, 44 H, 17 ER, 3 HR, 20 BB, 99 K
5-1, 2.32 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, 13.50 K/9, 4.95 K/BB, 0.81 GO/AO

In his debut 2010 season, Barnes struggled after arriving in Lansing. Getting a second chance in 2011, Barnes proved his issues were the result of fatigue (he threw almost 90 total innings between college and the minors in 2010) and not a lack of ability. His well developed arsenal and command allowed him to dominate the Midwest League, and helped him lead Toronto’s entire farm system in K/9 and strikeouts by a reliever. His success was consistent from April through August, as his monthly ERA never rose above 2.92 or below 1.46 –- a difficult task for relievers whose statistics can be skewed greatly by one poor performance. The most promising aspect of Barnes’ 2011 season was his ability to handle left-handed hitters after struggling against them in 2010 -– mostly attributable to the development of his changeup. In 28.2 innings against southpaws, Barnes had a 1.88 ERA with 47 strikeouts and only 9 walks, quickly transitioning his upside from right-handed specialist to late inning reliever.

Expected 2012 Assignment: High-A Dunedin

Future Outlook

With back-to-back successful seasons to start his professional career, Barnes could be fast tracked over the next two years allowing him to see the major leagues at some point in 2013. Barnes is more than ready to play in High-A, and should easily make it to Double-A New Hampshire before season’s end, barring an unforeseen injury or breakdown. As a four-year Princeton University graduate, Barnes is already 22 years old and it’s doubtful Toronto will hold him back too long should he continue to shred minor league batters.

Perfect World Projection: Late inning reliever

2012 Top Prospects #30: Moises Sierra

Name: Moises Sierra
Position: Right Field
Acquired: Signed as an International Free Agent out of the Dominican in December 2005
Opening Day age: 23
Height/weight: 6’0”/225 lbs
Best/worst tool: Arm/Speed
Risk factor: Low
ETA: 2012

Scouting Report

It could be argued that Moises Sierra is a five-tool player. The problem with that argument is that, even if it’s true, only three of the five tools are above average or better, causing some misperception about the young right fielder. Power is easily Sierra’s best offensive tool, as it has fringe-plus potential. The home run numbers haven’t yet blossomed, but a lot of that has to do with the injuries that have derailed his development in recent years. His bat is a step behind, but is still an average tool. It gets played up a bit thanks to his decent plate approach, but his ceiling is more of a .270 hitter than a .290 hitter. On defense, Sierra features one of the best arms in all of minor league baseball, a true plus-plus tool. Sierra’s fielding ability is above average, though when combined with his arm strength he often looks elite out in right field. Speed is Sierra’s worst tool, though it is still an average tool. His biggest issue might be overconfidence in his speed, as it frequently causes him trouble on the basepaths.

2011 Statistics and Analysis

495 AB, .277/.342/.436 (.778 OPS), 19 2B, 3 3B, 18 HR, 67 RBI, 16 SB, 39/93 BB/K

Making his return from an injury riddled 2010 season, Sierra erupted onto the scene in New Hampshire with arguably the best season of his career. The untapped power was finally unleashed, as Sierra doubled his career best for home runs in a season, going from 9 in 2008 to 18 in 2011. His walk rate remained fringe-average, while his strikeout rate did get a bit higher than you’d like to see out of someone with a mediocre plate approach. The bat was inconsistent, likely due to all the missed time, but his final batting average (.277) is right around what you would expect out of someone with a bat tool like Sierra – he’s not going to win batting titles, but shouldn’t drag the team rates down. The 16 stolen bases look good, but what isn’t mentioned is his 14 caught stealing, leaving him with an ugly 53% success rate. So while his speed tool could be considered average, his base running leaves a lot to be desired.

Expected 2012 Assignment: Triple-A Las Vegas

Future Outlook

Sierra should start next season with Triple-A Las Vegas, which could superficially raise his prospect stock. A similar thing happened with Eric Thames last season, as the jump from New Hampshire to Las Vegas spiked his OPS almost 150 points, and had fans clamoring for his arrival to Toronto. Sierra will only be in his second year back from serious injury, and shouldn’t be rushed just because he might hit .320 with 5 home runs next April. Still, Sierra will turn 24 next September, and is approaching the sink or swim phase of his career. A callup in the second half of the season is a very real possibility, particularly if the Snider/Thames situation in left gets sorted out, with one of them leaving town.

Perfect World Projection: Everyday RF who hits 6th or 7th in the lineup, but might contend for some Gold Gloves due to gaudy outfield assist numbers.

Blue Jays Positional Primer: Left-handed Pitcher

Inspiration for the Blue Jays Positional Primer series comes from Jason Parks of Baseball Prospectus. Over the course of the second half of the season, Jason examined the prospects in the entire minor leagues on a position-by-position basis, giving insight into players both within and well outside the top 100 rankings.

While the sample size of one team is vastly inferior to that of the entire minor leagues, I feel Toronto has enough depth in the farm -- particularly in the low minors -- that such a series could provide some insight into prospects that Blue Jays fans aren't as familiar with as they should be. This is the eighth and final installment of an eight part series that will examine catcher, first base, middle infield, third base, center field, corner outfield, right handed pitcher, and left handed pitcher. The middle infield and corner outfield lists are included as there's really no such thing as a second base or left field prospect, they're just shortstops and center/right fielders who couldn't handle the defensive demands and get moved to the easier defensive position as they age. It should be noted that -- outside of the Leader of the Pack, who is the #1 for the position -- these are not necessarily progressive rankings of the prospects.

Part I -- Blue Jays Positional Primer: Catcher
Part II -- Blue Jays Positional Primer: First Base
Part III -- Blue Jays Positional Primer: Middle Infield
Part IV -- Blue Jays Positional Primer: Third Base
Part V -- Blue Jays Positional Primer: Center Field
Part VI -- Blue Jays Positional Primer: Corner Outfield
Part VII -- Blue Jays Positional Primer: Right-handed Pitcher

Leader of the Pack

Daniel Norris -– N/A

Despite being a second round pick in last year’s draft, Norris has the most upside of any player Toronto selected. As such, he received a 2M signing bonus from the club. Some might even consider that deal to be a steal, as pre-draft whispers had Norris demanding 4M to pass on his Clemson commitment, which heavily contributed to his drop to the second round. Beyond his obvious pitching abilities, Norris was an excellent position player as well during high school. It’s sometimes difficult to consider a player who has yet to throw a professional pitch to be the Leader of the Pack, but Norris’ front of the rotation potential puts him ahead of the rest.

Norris is well built at 6’2”, 180 lbs, and it’s scary to think there could still be some velocity projection on his pitches. His fastball is easily his best pitch. Sitting in the low 90’s, Norris shows plus-plus potential with his fastball as it touches 96-97 mph occasionally. With continued growth, that “occasionally” could become “regularly”. What makes the pitch even more impressive is his excellent fastball command. Norris flashes a future plus-curveball, but its effectiveness is directly linked to his mechanics. When his delivery is smooth he can snap them off beautifully, but the pitch begins to loop and he loses command when his mechanics are off. He also features a changeup, but its usage was minimal in the high school ranks. Norris will have to jumpstart its development when he arrives in professional ball in the spring, as two pitch starters can only work for so long. Norris has excellent makeup and mound presence, two things that are often rare in such young players. After compiling 68 innings for his high school team in 2011, Norris very well could be ready for a full season assignment out of the spring. A short season assignment would limit his inning total to roughly 50-60, but Single-A Lansing would allow him to get to 90-100 innings before shutting things down in August. It should be interesting to see where Toronto places him, as it will be a great indicator of their developmental plans.

High Riser

Justin Nicolino -– 2011 teams: Low-A Vancouver, Single-A Lansing
15 games (12 starts), 61.0 IP, 39 H, 9 ER, 0 HR, 13 BB, 73 K
6-2, 1.33 ERA, 0.85 WHIP, 10.77 K/9, 5.62 K/BB, 1.33 GO/AO

Like Noah Syndergaard and Drew Hutchison in the right handed division, Nicolino exploded onto the prospect radar after decimating two minor league levels in his first season. Nicolino is yet another impressive arm that was acquired in the 2010 draft –- Toronto GM Alex Anthopolous’ first at the helm. A second round pick, Nicolino was the 80th overall selection but receiving a well above slot signing bonus of 0.615M. He began his season with Low-A Vancouver and was video game good -– 1.03 ERA, 0.75 WHIP, and 64 strikeouts in 52.1 innings of work. He received a well-earned promotion to Lansing in late August where he made three “starts” to close out the season. I use the term “start” loosely, as he pitched only 9 total innings in those three games, likely to keep his routine consistent while reaching his season inning plateau.

In terms of build, Nicolino carries a lot of similarities to right-handed High Riser Drew Hutchison, as he’s lanky and rail-thin at 6’3”, 160 lbs. That’s great news, as his fastball is already an above average pitch and should only improve as he approaches 180 or 190 lbs. Currently sitting in the 89-92 mph while touching 94, it has the potential to grow into a 91-94 mph fastball capable of touching the mid 90’s. He combines that fastball with a very advanced changeup which was likely the main contributor to his ridiculous success in Low-A. The change has plus potential, and not only does he have excellent arm action on the pitch but he’s capable of throwing it to both corners with success. His third pitch is a curveball that needs a lot of work, but it’s at an acceptable developmental level for a 19 year old. Curveballs are much more difficult to learn than sliders, so it can often take years for a pitcher to get tight rotation and avoid looping the ball to the plate. Like Norris his mound presence is excellent, and his baseball IQ really shows itself off when he dissects hitters with pitch sequencing and location. He should help anchor a ridiculously deep Lansing staff to open the 2012 season.

The Question Mark

Griffin Murphy -– 2011 team: GCL Blue Jays
11 games (11 starts), 41.0 IP, 48 H, 20 ER, 6 HR, 16 BB, 39 K
2-2, 4.39 ERA, 1.56 WHIP, 8.56 K/9, 2.44 K/BB, 1.20 GO/AO

When an 8.56 K/9 is the worst strikeout rate amongst of group of pitchers, you know you’re dealing with some talented arms. Murphy is yet another high draft pick in the primer, as he was a second round pick in the same 2010 draft that has produced so many excellent right-handed and left-handed pitchers. Murphy agreed to terms with Toronto on deadline day, receiving an above-slot signing bonus of 0.8M. Signing so late forced Murphy to miss the remainder of the 2010 season, which was likely a poor decision given that he was already old for a high school player at 19 years old when he was drafted. Now 20 –- and turning 21 later this month -– Murphy really needs to get his career going. For a 21 year old to enter their third year in an organization with 41 career minor league innings –- all of which came in the Gulf Coast League –- is troubling.

Murphy’s fastball is above average to fringe plus, sitting in the high 80’s to low 90’s and touching 93 mph with above average fastball command. His curveball clocks in the mid 70’s and has drastically improved the last couple of years, as he has transformed it from a looping curve to a hard biting curve with some room to grow. Like seemingly every Toronto high draftee, Murphy also throws a changeup. It’s a solid average pitch –- with above-average potential -– and he’s aggressive with it, which is a rare quality in young players. His command is average but can be an issue at times. What might be working against Murphy the most –- beyond his age -– is his build. He’s stands 6’3” and is very athletic, but is already 200 lbs, so it’s doubtful there’s a lot of projectibility left in his frame. I sincerely hope Toronto hands Murphy an aggressive assignment, as at nearly 21 years old it’s time to see what the guy can do.

The Bullpen Guy

Evan Crawford -– 2011 team: Double-A New Hampshire
45 games (0 starts), 51.0 IP, 50 H, 19 ER, 3 HR, 21 BB, 62 K
3-5, 3.35 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, 10.94 K/9, 2.95 K/BB, 2.19 GO/AO

Since making the transition to relief pitching partway through the 2010 season, Crawford has been raising eyebrows with good strikeout rates and outstanding groundball ratios. Over the past two seasons, he has struck out roughly a batter per inning with a GO/AO ratio in the 2.50 range. As an eighth round pick, Crawford was the lowest selection of any pitcher on the primer, and it was likely due to his lack of potential as a starting pitcher. Crawford isn’t an imposing figure at 6’1” and 175 lbs, and his stuff likely began to diminish in the later innings of starts as his stamina waned which led to the move to the bullpen. He carried his relief success over to the Arizona Fall League, possibly as a precursor to some Major League work next season.

Crawford’s arsenal is much better suited to the bullpen, as he’s basically a two pitch pitcher. His fastball sits in the low 90’s, but its effectiveness goes far beyond velocity. The sink on the pitch is very heavy, which allows him to work consistently low in the zone to both righties and lefties and induce a ton of ground balls. His breaking pitch is a mid to high 70’s hammer curveball and is capable of striking out Major League hitters right now. Crawford has a lot of deception in his delivery. He hides the ball very well during his windup, which, from the hitter’s perspective, makes it look like the ball is coming out of his shoulder and creates difficulty in picking up the rotation. Crawford has little else to prove in the minors, and should get an extended look in Spring Training. He’ll likely be one of the first injury replacements from the minor leagues.

Remember the Name

Mitchell Taylor -– 2011 team: Rookie-class Bluefield
13 games (8 starts), 55.1 IP, 50 H, 26 ER, 5 HR, 14 BB, 61 K
4-2, 4.23 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 9.92 K/9, 4.35 K/BB, 1.54 GO/AO

Finishing off the list is Mitchell Taylor, yet another player selected in the 2010 draft. A Texas high school arm, Taylor received a 0.367M bonus from the Blue Jays, which, unsurprisingly, was an above slot deal. Taylor isn’t a big guy by any stretch of the imagination, but he gets everything he can out of his 6’0”, 155 lbs frame. While some point to his size being the reason he fell to the seventh round, it likely has a lot more to do with a midseason suspension from his high school during his draft year, which throws up all kinds of red flags regarding makeup issues. Toronto took the chance, however, and given how they tempered any concerns over attitude with guys like Brett Lawrie and Kyle Drabek, they obviously feel comfortable dealing with guys who can lose their cool on occasion.

Interestingly, Taylor is on a strange developmental path that includes polish, ceiling, and projectiblity. His stuff is very developed and polished for a high school draft pick, but given his frame there is still a lot of room for growth within his arsenal. He features an 87-92 mph fastball with good fastball command, as well as a power curveball that usually clocks in the high 70’s. He doesn’t really have a third pitch to speak of at this point, but if he hopes to continue working as a left-handed starter he’ll need to develop a changeup down the road. Taylor’s delivery might be one of his most characteristic traits, and is one of the reasons why scouts think there is some good projectibility here despite the small 6’0” frame. Taylor’s windup starts with an extremely high leg kick but continues with a very quick and smooth delivery. It’s so smooth it almost looks like he’s casually throwing warm-ups, but the ball is clocking around 90 mph. It’s easy to see how a few mph could be added to the fastball without causing any added strain to the arm. A video of his delivery can be found here, from MLB.com’s 2010 draft coverage. After pitching well for 55 innings with Bluefield in 2011, Taylor is probably ready for a full season assignment with Single-A. However, due to sheer numbers, Taylor could find himself as the odd man out. One option might be to keep him in extended spring training for a month or two until other arms advance, then send him to Lansing in mid May or early June to throw 80-90 innings for the club. His delivery is so clean I can’t see a reason to baby him with another short-season assignment.

Could Rich Harden fit into this pitching staff?

After trading for Sergio Santos and Jason Frasor and signing Darren Oliver, the bullpen looks to be in much better shape than the version that blew a mindnumbing amount of saves last season. Those three veterans are joining a talented but fairly unexperienced middle relief group that includes Casey Janssen, Jesse Litsch, Carlos Villanueva, as well as a number of other young arms vying for the 7th and final spot. Beyond the top seven there’s three or four pitchers in the high minors who are more than ready to pitch in the big leagues, giving the team a ton of depth and flexibility.

The rotation, however, lacks that immediate depth. Ricky Romero and Brandon Morrow will lead the staff –- that much we know –- but after those two, there’s a group of question marks. Brett Cecil will be looking to rebound from a very unimpressive season in which he lost velocity and hung changeups. Henderson Alvarez, while immensely talented, will only be 21 years old on Opening Day. He’s very mature for his age as he’s been in the professional ranks for five years now, but it’s near impossible to mark down an [unofficial] rookie for 180 strong innings, regardless of how highly touted they are (see: Drabek, Kyle). The fifth spot could come down to a battle between the aforementioned Drabek and Dustin McGowan, both of whom have more questions than answers at this point in their respective careers. For Drabek, the questions are “What the hell happened last year?” to varying degrees, while for McGowan, the questions are based upon health and his lack of pitching over nearly three full seasons. Suffice to say, the rotation has a few more holes than the bullpen at this point.

With that being said, if an upgrade is to be made to the pitching staff this late in the offseason, it appears it will be to the rotation. The Blue Jays have been linked most recently to Matt Garza (which I touched on here) and Gavin Floyd. Rumors are just rumors at this point, and with the kind of deals that have been made for young starters, I’m not sure if Toronto should be too active in that trade market -– there’s no sound reasoning behind damaging the farm in a developmental year for a player who won’t be here when we’re competing for championships.

Allow me to throw a name into the ring who could help this team in the short term without having a negative impact on the long term -– Rich Harden. Prior to their January 3rd post in which they mentioned Harden is garnering interest from some teams as a reliever, Rotoworld.com hadn’t written about him since November 8th, which speaks to how quiet Harden’s offseason has been. Only 30 years old, I think he could be a valuable acquisition for a team who doesn’t expect him to make 30 starts, and will play to his strengths at this point in his career.

Velocity wise, Harden has definitely seen his stuff diminish since his prime years in his early and mid 20’s, but he still has an above average fastball that averaged 91.7 mph in 2011. He throws the occasional slider, but for the most part is a two pitch pitcher at this stage of his career. His primary offspeed pitch –- and easily his best offering –- is a plus circle changeup. Toronto got to see Harden in action twice last season, during which he struck out 19 and allowed 1 earned run over 14 innings. Needless to say he looked impressive in those starts. Even when Blue Jays hitters knew the changeup was coming they still couldn’t make contact –- the pitch can be that good when it’s on. Harden’s ERA was an unsightly 5.12 last season, but he also had a HR/FB rate and BABIP value well above his career norms. The 3.68 xFIP, 9.91 K/9, and 3.38 BB/9 are much better indicators of how well he pitched last season.

The problem with Harden throughout his entire career has been health, but as I mentioned, Toronto doesn’t need to rely upon him for 30+ starts. Harden could enter Spring Training with the club in competition for one of the final three spots in the rotation. Should he win a rotation spot, he can start until he loses his effectiveness or suffers an injury, at which point one of the young starters in the minor leagues can step in after hopefully gaining a valuable few extra months of seasoning. If he fails to make the rotation, Harden could become a valuable member of the bullpen, possibly making the occasional spot start while building trade value. His roles could overlap with those expected of Carlos Villanueva this year, but durability aside, Harden is the better pitcher and should be given the opportunity.

The upside is there with Rich Harden and, for some reason, the interest isn’t. That could play into the hands of whoever signs him, as it’s very likely he’ll require only a 1 year commitment with no more than 4M guaranteed on the deal. It’s almost dumbfounding to say, but the risk with Rich Harden at this point in his career is very low. If he flames out, you cut your losses and let a young guy take over (and if money is an “issue” with anybody, just remember how much this club is paying Mark Teahen to have a negative impact on the team). If he pitches well, he gets traded at the deadline for a valuable, controllable commodity. This is exactly the type of shrewd move that Alex Anthopolous has become known for, and given the lack of rumors linking Toronto to Harden, the possibility is certainly there.

Blue Jays Positional Primer: Right-handed Pitcher

Inspiration for the Blue Jays Positional Primer series comes from Jason Parks of Baseball Prospectus. Over the course of the second half of the season, Jason examined the prospects in the entire minor leagues on a position-by-position basis, giving insight into players both within and well outside the top 100 rankings.

While the sample size of one team is vastly inferior to that of the entire minor leagues, I feel Toronto has enough depth in the farm -- particularly in the low minors -- that such a series could provide some insight into prospects that Blue Jays fans aren't as familiar with as they should be. This is the seventh installment of an eight part series that will examine catcher, first base, middle infield, third base, center field, corner outfield, right handed pitcher, and left handed pitcher. The middle infield and corner outfield lists are included as there's really no such thing as a second base or left field prospect, they're just shortstops and center/right fielders who couldn't handle the defensive demands and get moved to the easier defensive position as they age. It should be noted that -- outside of the Leader of the Pack, who is the #1 for the position -- these are not necessarily progressive rankings of the prospects.

Part I -- Blue Jays Positional Primer: Catcher
Part II -- Blue Jays Positional Primer: First Base
Part III -- Blue Jays Positional Primer: Middle Infield
Part IV -- Blue Jays Positional Primer: Third Base
Part V -- Blue Jays Positional Primer: Center Field
Part VI -- Blue Jays Positional Primer: Corner Outfield
Part VIII -- Blue Jays Positional Primer: Left-handed Pitcher

Leader of the Pack

Noah Syndergaard -– 2011 teams: Rookie-class Bluefield, Low-A Vancouver, Single-A Lansing
13 games (11 starts), 59.0 IP, 46 H, 12 ER, 1 HR, 18 BB, 68 K
5-2, 1.83 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 10.37 K/9, 3.77 K/BB, 1.30 GO/AO

In only a little more than a year, Syndergaard’s prospect stock has seen one of the most dramatic rises in the entire minor leagues. Toronto’s 38th overall pick in the 2010 draft –- the selection used on Syndergaard –- was acquired through less than normal circumstances. James Paxton was selected by the Blue Jays 37th overall in 2009, but as he didn’t sign, Toronto received a compensation pick in that spot plus one (37 + 1 = 38) in the next draft. While the Paxton pick was protected, the Syndergaard pick was not, forcing Toronto to select a “safe sign”. The club chose Noah Syndergaard, which resulted in more than a few “Who?” remarks from the fan base. Most scouting reports said something along the lines of “big Texan with tons of projectibility, but is likely years away from reaching it”. They got the first part correct, but it appears they swung and missed on the second. Only 19 years old, Syndergaard has already pitched in four different leagues, from the Gulf Coast League all the way to the Midwest League late last season. The fact he will be ready for a full season assignment at age 19 is incredible.

Armed with the best fastball in Toronto’s system, Syndergaard’s pure stuff has improved by leaps and bounds since being drafted. Consistently sitting in the low 90’s and touching 95 in highschool, Syndergaard now finds himself working almost exclusively in the mid 90’s, with the occasional 97-98 appearing on the scoreboard. There were reports of a 102 mph pitch, but that appears to be a case of a juiced stadium gun. He is working on two offspeed pitches -– a changeup and curveball -– and while they both show potential, they’re well behind his fastball in terms of polish and consistency. His fastball alone could decimate the low minors, but if he wants to find continued success upwards from Lansing, they’ll need to keep developing. One of Syndergaard’s more impressive traits is his mental strength. His mound presence is off the charts, as he keeps his head cool when times are tough but also isn’t afraid to show some fire when he gets a big out. Noah has an incredible work ethic, always trying to do what he can to better himself. That work ethic paid off in 2010 getting him the attention of amateur scouts, and again in 2011 as his repertoire improved and he soared up prospect charts. With a full offseason to get prepared for 2012, it will be interesting to see what Synder has in store for next season.

High Riser

Drew Hutchison -– 2011 teams: Single-A Lansing, High-A Dunedin, Double-A New Hampshire
28 games (27 starts), 149.1 IP, 120 H, 42 ER, 4 HR, 35 BB, 171 K
14-5, 2.53 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 10.31 K/9, 4.89 K/BB, 1.33 GO/AO

In terms of minor league levels, no player in Toronto’s system was a higher riser during the 2011 season than Drew Hutchison. Hutch was a lanky 15th round pick in 2009, but has pitched well above his draft status the past two seasons. Hutchison began the year with Single-A Lansing, and after 14 exceptional starts he received a well-earned promotion to the High-A Dunedin club. The Dunedin stop was a short one, as Hutch continued his success from Single-A and dominated Florida State League hitters for 10 starts before earning a late season promotion to Double-A New Hampshire –- a huge step for any pitcher. Unsurprisingly, Hutchison kept the ball rolling in his 3 Double-A Starts, but shut down just prior to the playoffs. Hutch had reaching his inning limit for the season (Toronto had targeted 150), and was forced to sit and watch his teammates win the Eastern League title. While his team winning the EL Championship was probably his most treasured achievement of the year, his personal streak of six-plus consecutive scoreless starts between Lansing and Dunedin was incredible.

Hutchison’s pure stuff is behind that of Noah Syndergaard which limits his ceiling, but his skinny 6’2” frame can still get some solid oomph on his fastball. Hutch works mostly in the low 90’s, but his fastball has good life and he can reach back for 94 or 95 mph when he really needs it. His slider has made great strides and flashes plus ability at times, but Hutchison is still too inconsistent with the pitch. While the slider works well against right handed opponents, he uses his third pitch, a changeup, to get lefties out. It’s still a relatively new pitch to Hutchison and is most definitely a work in progress, but it could be an above average pitch down the line if he works on developing it as hard as he worked on his fastball and slider. Hutchison has excellent command and, like most of Toronto’s top pitching prospects, he is very proficient at inducing ground balls. Strikeouts are another commonality among the Blue Jays prospects, and Hutchison led the entire system in that category in 2011 with 171. Single-A to Double-A is a big leap to make in one year, but Hutch could be facing an even bigger one in 2012 –- Double-A to the majors.

The Question Mark

Aaron Sanchez -– 2011 teams: Rookie-class Bluefield, Low-A Vancouver
14 games (9 starts), 54.1 IP, 53 H, 32 ER, 4 HR, 26 BB, 56 K
3-3, 5.30 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, 9.28 K/9, 2.15 K/BB, 1.60 GO/AO

Of the six pitchers on this list, Sanchez had the least statistical success in 2011, due in part to his questionable command. Sanchez was a member of the quartet of right handed pitchers acquired by Toronto prior to the second round in the 2010 draft, alongside Deck McGuire, Noah Syndergaard, and Asher Wojciechowski. He signed early enough to get into 10 games for Toronto’s short season affiliates with very mixed results. The overpowering stuff was there –- 37 strikeouts in 25 innings with a GO/AO ratio approaching 3. The command, however, was not –- 17 walks in those 25 innings. The biggest thing for Sanchez at this point in his career is getting innings under his belt and building arm strength, as many of his command issues can be attributed to inconsistent pitching mechanics. Repetition will smooth out the kinks. As the old adage goes, practice makes perfect.

Sanchez is still just a kid at 19 years old, and given how he should continue to fill in and bulk up his extremely projectible 6’4” frame, it’s very exciting that he’s already throwing his fastball in the low 90’s. It’s very possible he has another 2-3 mph hidden inside which, when combined with natural run and sink, would make an absolutely devastating plus (possibly plus-plus) pitch. Like most pitchers on this list, Sanchez throws two offspeed pitches, a changeup and a breaking ball. His changeup is a definite work in progress, as he rarely used it in high school and still only throws a few every outing in the low minors. For a breaking ball, Sanchez throws a straight curve with plus potential. It’s more of a slow loopy curveball than a hard spike curveball, but as he cleans up his delivery and builds arm strength it could become crisper. After two seasons in short season ball, it’s likely time for Sanchez to make the move to full season ball with Single-A Lansing. 120 innings (24 starts at 5 innings per) during the 2012 season would be a fair target.

The Bullpen Guy

John Stilson –- N/A

The first 2011 draftee on the right handed pitcher list is the guy most likely to end up in a bullpen down the road. Stilson was a third round pick in the aforementioned 2011 draft, but if not for a serious shoulder injury, he was a guaranteed first round pick. Toronto took a gamble, but managed to sign him to a fair deal –- 0.5M. Stilson worked as both a starter and a reliever in college after playing shortstop in high school, but his delivery is so violent it was likely he would be forced to the bullpen even if he were healthy. The labrum injury only further cements his future. Texas A&M, his college team, has a long history of mistreating young arms, so Toronto can only hope that getting him out of that system and into organized ball will allow his health to return. Stilson has yet to play for any of Toronto’s affiliates, and a lot of question marks remain about whether he’ll even be ready for the start of the 2012 season.

In terms of pitch arsenal, it’s obvious why Stilson was regarded so highly, even if he’s a future reliever. His go-to pitch is a four-seam fastball that sits 92-95 when starting but consistently reaches the high 90’s out of the bullpen. He features three offspeed pitches, another reason why teams may have dreamed on Stilson as a starter. His circle changeup is the best of the bunch, an excellent offering that fades down and away from left handers. He also throws a slider and a curveball with varying degrees of success, but both are significantly behind his fastball and changeup in terms of polish. If the bullpen move is permanent, however, Stilson will have the opportunity to scrap one offering and focus on the other, becoming a deadly fastball/change/breaking ball closer. It’s impossible to project Stilson in the near future, but hopefully some more news regarding his health will begin to circulate once pitchers and catcher report to Spring Training in early February. If his shoulder is feeling good, he could easily start the season in High-A Dunedin or possibly even Double-A New Hampshire.

Remember the Name

Joseph Musgrove -– 2011 teams: Gulf Coast Blue Jays, Rookie-class Bluefield
9 games (7 starts), 24.2 IP, 19 H, 11 ER, 1 HR, 5 BB, 18 K
1-1, 4.01 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, 6.57 K/9, 3.60 K/BB, 1.72 GO/AO

Joe Musgrove has the rare honor of being the first player from the entire 2011 draft to sign with his team, which is even more impressive when considering his 46th overall selection. Musgrove signed for 0.5M, which is below slot recommendation for the 46th overall pick, but it allowed his contract to move quickly through the Commissioner’s Office and get his professional career started. Nearly 25 innings across two levels in your draft year is an excellent way to keep your major league aspirations on track. Musgrove is an imposing guy, standing 6’5” and weighing over 230 lbs. He immediately gives the impression of a workhorse type of pitcher, and in reality that’s exactly what he is. With a smooth and easy delivery working alongside unquestionable stamina, Musgrove has all the basics required for a reliable 200+ inning starting pitcher.

In terms of stuff, Musgrove has an intriguing fastball but little else developed. His fastball is more of a sinker than a true four-seamer, as it works on a downward plane to create a heaviness that makes the ball difficult to get under. The pitch sits in the low 90’s, but has been clocked as high as 98 mph in the past. Like most high school pitchers, Musgrove also throws a changeup and a breaking ball, but both have a long way to go before being assets. For pitchers with good fastballs like Musgrove, there’s little reason to develop offspeed pitches in high school, as they can blow the hitters away with the catcher simply putting one finger down over and over. His changeup sits in the mid 70’s, which is a bit concerning as 12 mph is usually the biggest gap you want between your fastball and your changeup. Musgrove is sitting at around 16 or 17 mph of separation, which is something that will need to be remedied. His breaking ball is a high 70’s to low 80’s curveball with sharp break. Musgrove finished the year with Bluefield, but he seems to be the type of guy who could skip straight to Single-A Lansing and give the team 120 innings without too much risk of injury. Otherwise, he’ll be yet another powerful arm fuelling the playoff hopes of Toronto’s short season affiliates.

Dream on Me

Adonys Cardona –- 2011 team: Gulf Coast Blue Jays
10 games (7 starts), 31.2 IP, 31 H, 16 ER, 2 HR, 12 BB, 35 K
1-3, 4.55 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, 9.94 K/9, 2.92 K/BB, 1.86 GO/AO

The sixth and final pitcher on the list is Adonys Cardona, Toronto’s prized International Free Agent of the 2010 season. Cardona agreed to terms with the Blue Jays with a contract that would make him the highest paid Venezuelan IFA in history, receiving 2.8M from the club. Not turning 18 until later this month, there are already some major discrepancies regarding Cardona’s height and weight. Multiple outlets, including Baseball America, have Cardona listed at 6’4” and 180 lbs. Some others, such as MILB.com, list him at 6’1” and 170 lbs. Neither have a date recording when the measurements were made so it's impossible to know his true stature without seeing him in person, but with either build it’s quite obvious he’s very lean and possesses a ton of projectibility. By the time he’s 22 years old, he could add 2-3 inches and 20-30 lbs to his frame, and Toronto’s front office can only hope that further augments his power arsenal. Cardona also has genetics on his side, as his father is a former professional baseball player who spent time in the minor leagues.

Cardona threw his fastball in the high 80’s to low 90’s at age 16, and at the time of his signing Baseball America felt that after he has finished maturing physically, it should be at least a plus pitch capable of capable of sitting in the mid 90’s. Cardona has shown some potential with a changeup, but unsurprisingly it’s still very raw and has a long way to go before it becomes an out pitch. Working on his side, however, is that from top to bottom Toronto is one of the best organizations when it comes to developing changeups. The club values the pitch very highly, as it’s effective against the opposite swinging batter and is one of the few pitches that have little negative effect on a young arm. Cardona’s primary breaking ball is a 12-6 curveball, but it’s presently a below average pitch. When he snaps it off well it shows good break, but he’s far too inconsistent with it. Regardless, it’s very rare for any teenager to have good feel for their breaking ball, so Cardona has plenty of time to figure it out. Beyond the impressive statistics, but I liked most about Cardona’s debut season is that he skipped the DSL altogether and was assigned straight to the Gulf Coast League, an indication that Toronto has no intentions of babying their young phenom.